Nantes vs Olympique Marseille Prediction, Preview and Stats

France flag 2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau Sat, 2 May - 1:00 PM
Ligue 1
Nantes NAN
3 Winner 0
Olympique Marseille OM
Full Time Sat, 2 May 1:00 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Matthis Abline - 58'
Rémy Cabella - 54'
Ignatius Ganago - 50'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Nantes 3–0 Olympique Marseille. The result saw Nantes take the points. Nantes showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 42%–58%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Nantes' 3-0 win exhibited minimal structural deviation of 2.4%.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies stayed in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable prevents alignment determination.
  • Market alignment: Result aligned fully with pre-match market assessments.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable due to missing data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion to match flow.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

J. Pignard

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

B. Parinet Le Tellier

1st Assistant

M. Rahmouni

2nd Assistant

M. Leleu

4th Official

Nantes V. Halilhodžić
V. Halilhodžić
VS
Olympique Marseille H. Beye
H. Beye
0.52
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.55
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rennes Rank: 79 L
Paris Saint Germain Rank: 94 L
Brest Rank: 73 D
Auxerre Rank: 69 D
Metz Rank: 62 D
Strasbourg Rank: 79 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Nice Rank: 71 D
Lorient Rank: 72 L
Metz Rank: 62 W
Monaco Rank: 80 L
LOSC Lille Rank: 81 L
Auxerre Rank: 69 W
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 8 - 15
15

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Nantes
97.6%
Draw
1.91%
Away Olympique Marseille
0.49%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
66.72
78.58
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Nantes
Olympique Marseille
Power Score
66.72
78.58
League Position
17
7
Global Rank
275
70

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Nantes — Opponent-weighted form score
Olympique Marseille — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Nantes Olympique Marseille

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Nantes

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Olympique Marseille

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Nantes ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Olympique Marseille
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
44.52
32.16
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
32.16
44.52
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Nantes +1.21 Efficiency Index
vs
Olympique Marseille -1.21 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Nantes
Olympique Marseille
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Nantes ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Olympique Marseille
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Nantes Olympique Marseille
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Nantes Olympique Marseille
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Nantes
Olympique Marseille
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Nantes
vs
Olympique Marseille
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Nantes Olympique Marseille
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Nantes 0.50
Olympique Marseille 0.30
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Nantes Olympique Marseille
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Nantes 0.00
Olympique Marseille 0.09
Nantes
Olympique Marseille
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • OM had peak pressure around 97'.
  • NAN started the game with stronger pressure.
NAN Pressure OM Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: OM reached the top pressure at 97' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 31 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Nantes NAN Home
31 matches
Olympique Marseille OM Away
Match Record
8
Wins
15
8
Draws
8
15
Losses
8
Goals
31
Goals Scored
43
43
Goals Conceded
31
-12
Goal Difference
+12

Data last updated: 2026-05-03T00:03:23+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
P. Carlgren
Sweden
30 P. Carlgren
F. Guilbert
Substitution
France
24 F. Guilbert
C. Collins Awaziem
Nigeria
6 C. Collins Awaziem
N. Cozza
France
3 N. Cozza
D. Machado Mena
Substitution
Colombia
27 D. Machado Mena
J. Lepenant
France
8 J. Lepenant
I. Sissoko
Substitution
Mali
28 I. Sissoko
M. Abline
France
10 M. Abline
M. Kaba
Substitution
France
21 M. Kaba
R. Cabella
Substitution
France
20 R. Cabella
I. Kpene Ganago
Cameroon
37 I. Kpene Ganago
Pitch
J. de Lange
Netherlands
12 J. de Lange
E. Palmieri dos Santos
Italy
33 E. Palmieri dos Santos
F. Medina
Argentina
32 F. Medina
L. Balerdi Rossa
Substitution
Argentina
5 L. Balerdi Rossa
T. Nadi
Nigeria
6 T. Nadi
P. Højbjerg
Denmark
23 P. Højbjerg
A. Vermeeren
Substitution
Belgium
18 A. Vermeeren
H. Traorè
Substitution
Ivory Coast
20 H. Traorè
Q. Timber
Substitution
Netherlands
27 Q. Timber
M. Greenwood
England
10 M. Greenwood
P. Aubameyang
Substitution
Gabon
17 P. Aubameyang

General Information

Date & Time :
May 02, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau
Capacity :
37473
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Jérémie Pignard
Brice Parinet Le Tellier
Mehdi Rahmouni
Mickaël Leleu

Statistics

Possession
NAN
45%
OM
55%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 0
5 Big Chances Created 4
5 Shots 8
34 Dangerous attacks 53
42 Possession 58
7 Corners 8
11 Free kicks 12
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

6 Successful Dribbles 7
84 Ball Safe 77
46 Successful Dribbles Percentage 39
9 Goal Attempts 11
5 Substitutions 5
9 Goal Kicks 10
13 Dribble Attempts 18
10 Successful Headers 8
18 Throwins 26
1 Injuries 1
3 Assists 0

Attacking

3 Big Chances Missed 4
82 Attacks 91

Possession

43 Long Passes 42
11 Key Passes 13
329 Passes 455
33 Successful Long Passes Percentage 57
79 Successful Passes Percentage 85
14 Successful Long Passes 24
260 Successful Passes 387

Defensive

8 Saves 2
49 Duels Won 50
21 Interceptions 8
23 Tackles 23

Build-up

20 Total Crosses 23
5 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

12 Fouls 11
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Jérémie Pignard

Starting XI ▼

30
Patrik Carlgren
Patrik Carlgren Goalkeeper
6.89
3
Nicolas Cozza
Nicolas Cozza Defender
6.6
6
Chidozie Awaziem
Chidozie Awaziem Defender
6.85
24
Frédéric Guilbert
Frédéric Guilbert Defender
7.01
2
Ali Youssef
Ali Youssef
Defender79'
6.81
27
Deiver Machado
Deiver Machado Defender
6.59
22
Mathieu Acapandié
Mathieu Acapandié
Defender26'
6.3
8
Johann Lepenant
Johann Lepenant Midfielder
6.87
10
Matthis Abline
Matthis Abline Midfielder
6.8
20
Rémy Cabella
Rémy Cabella Midfielder
6.97
66
Louis Leroux
Louis Leroux
Midfielder69'
6.6
21
Mohamed Kaba
Mohamed Kaba Midfielder
6.93
13
Francis Coquelin
Francis Coquelin
Midfielder69'
6.59
28
Ibrahima Sissoko
Ibrahima Sissoko Midfielder
6.53
26
Uros Radakovic
Uros Radakovic
Defender79'
6.35
37
Ignatius Ganago
Ignatius Ganago Attacker
6.78
Referee : Jérémie Pignard

Starting XI ▼

12
Jeffrey de Lange
Jeffrey de Lange Goalkeeper
6.57
5
Leonardo Balerdi
Leonardo Balerdi Defender
6.8
72
Hilan Hamzaoui Slimani
Hilan Hamzaoui Slimani
Defender88'
6
Tochukwu Nnadi
Tochukwu Nnadi Defender
6.87
32
Facundo Medina
Facundo Medina Defender
6.79
33
Emerson
Emerson Defender
7.03
10
Mason Greenwood
Mason Greenwood Midfielder
7.56
18
Arthur Vermeeren
Arthur Vermeeren Midfielder
6.64
9
Amine Gouiri
Amine Gouiri
Attacker65'
7.09
20
Hamed Junior Traoré
Hamed Junior Traoré Midfielder
6.87
70
Ugo Lamare El Kadmiri
Ugo Lamare El Kadmiri
Attacker90+4'
6.29
23
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg Midfielder
7.21
27
Quinten Timber
Quinten Timber Midfielder
6.75
14
Igor Paixão
Igor Paixão
Attacker46'
6.92
17
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang Attacker
6.98
78
Emmanuel Israel Ange Lago
Emmanuel Israel Ange Lago
Attacker46'
6.96

Events

2ND-HALF
90+4'
Event
Ugo Lamare El Kadmiri → Hamed Junior Traoré
10th Substitution
88'
Event
Hilan Hamzaoui Slimani → Leonardo Balerdi
9th Substitution
81'
Event
Facundo Medina
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Uros Radakovic → Ibrahima Sissoko
7th Substitution
79'
Event
Ali Youssef → Frédéric Guilbert
8th Substitution
79'
Event
Francis Coquelin → Mohamed Kaba
5th Substitution
69'
Event
Louis Leroux → Rémy Cabella
6th Substitution
69'
65'
Event
Amine Gouiri → Arthur Vermeeren
4th Substitution
Event
Matthis Abline
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
58'
Event
Rémy Cabella
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
54'
Event
Ignatius Ganago
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
50'
49'
Event
Emmanuel Israel Ange Lago
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
46'
Event
Emmanuel Israel Ange Lago → Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Igor Paixão → Quinten Timber
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
31'
Event
Quinten Timber
Off the ball foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Mathieu Acapandié → Deiver Machado
1st Substitution
26'
Event
Matthis Abline
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
18'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Hamed Junior Traore takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
90
Update Update
Ugo Lamare El Kadmiri comes on for Hamed Junior Traore.
90
Attempt Attempt
Hamed Junior Traore takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
89
Attempt Attempt
Mason Greenwood takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
88
Update Update
Hilan Hamzaoui is on, and Leonardo Balerdi is off.
85
Attempt Attempt
Mason Greenwood's right-footed shot is saved.
82
Attempt Attempt
Ange Lago's header is saved.
81
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Facundo Medina receives a yellow card.
81
Attempt Attempt
Uros Radakovic attempts a header but misses the shot.
79
Update Update
Uros Radakovic replaces Ibrahima Sissoko.
79
Update Update
Youssef Ali comes on for Frederic Guilbert.
78
Attempt Attempt
Igor Paixao takes a right-footed shot but misses.
75
Attempt Attempt
Louis Leroux takes a left-footed shot but misses.
73
Attempt Attempt
Mason Greenwood takes a right-footed shot but misses.
72
Attempt Attempt
Igor Paixao's right-footed shot is blocked.
69
Update Update
Louis Leroux is on, and Remy Cabella is off.
69
Update Update
Francis Coquelin replaces Mohamed Kaba.
68
Attempt Attempt
Igor Paixao takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
67
Update Update
Pierre Emile Hojbjerg attempts a header but misses the target.
66
Attempt Attempt
Amine Gouiri's right-footed shot is saved.
65
Update Update
Amine Gouiri replaces Arthur Vermeeren.
63
Attempt Attempt
Nicolas Cozza attempts a header but misses the shot.
63
Attempt Attempt
Nicolas Cozza takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
58
Attempt Attempt
Matthis Abline scores with a right-footed shot.
58
Update Update
Goal! Matthis Abline scores, making it 3-0.
54
Update Update
Goal! Remy Cabella scores, making it 2-0.
54
Attempt Attempt
Remy Cabella takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
50
Update Update
Goal! Ignatius Kpene Ganago scores to make it 1-0.
50
Attempt Attempt
Ignatius Kpene Ganago scores with a right-footed shot.
49
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Emmanuel Lago receives a yellow card.
48
Attempt Attempt
Mason Greenwood takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
48
Attempt Attempt
Ange Lago's right-footed shot is saved.
47
Attempt Attempt
Chidozie Awaziem takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
46
Attempt Attempt
Shot from Ignatius Kpene Ganago with his right foot is blocked.
46
Update Update
Emmanuel Lago replaces Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang.
46
Update Update
Igor Paixao replaces Quinten Timber.
41
Attempt Attempt
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
40
Attempt Attempt
Ignatius Kpene Ganago takes a right-footed shot but misses.
38
Attempt Attempt
Hamed Junior Traore takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
37
Attempt Attempt
Frederic Guilbert takes a right-footed shot but misses.
37
Attempt Attempt
Matthis Abline takes a right-footed shot but misses.
36
Attempt Attempt
Mohamed Kaba takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
33
Attempt Attempt
Remy Cabella takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
32
Attempt Attempt
Remy Cabella takes a right-footed shot but misses.
31
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Quinten Timber receives a yellow card.
26
Update Update
Mathieu Acapandie comes on for Deiver Andres Machado Mena.
19
Attempt Attempt
Mason Greenwood takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
18
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Matthis Abline receives a yellow card.
14
Attempt Attempt
Mason Greenwood takes a left-footed shot but misses.
4
Attempt Attempt
Ibrahima Sissoko takes a right-footed shot but misses.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Jeremie Pignard.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Nantes exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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