Nacional vs Vitória Guimarães Prediction, Preview and Stats

Portugal flag 2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Estádio da Madeira Tomorrow - 5:00 PM
Liga Portugal
Nacional CDN
Versus
Vitória Guimarães VSC
KICKOFF : Tomorrow - 5:00 PM
Round 34 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Nacional welcomes Vitória Guimarães to Estádio da Madeira for a Liga Portugal Regular Season fixture in the 2025/2026 campaign. Currently 14th in the standings, the hosts face a stern test against 7th-placed opponents who boast a superior power score of 71.31 compared to Nacional's 63.98, translating to a 7.3-point advantage for the visitors. This structural edge underscores Vitória Guimarães as the stronger team overall. Both sides enter with form scores of zero and no recent outing details, hinting at an early-season encounter lacking recent momentum indicators. League positions highlight Vitória Guimarães' greater consistency thus far. With efficiency metrics unavailable and set-piece data limited due to absent xG figures, analysis hinges on power ratings and standings. Nacional's home venue provides some ballast, but Vitória Guimarães' quality positions them to exploit any openings effectively.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Vitória Guimarães holds a 7.3-point power advantage and sits higher at 7th compared to Nacional's 14th in the league.
  • Form: Both teams record form scores of 0 with no last outing data available.
  • Squad: No specific squad composition or injury details provided for either team.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics are unavailable for this matchup.
  • Transition: No transition play data available for analysis.
  • Set pieces: Set piece xG data unavailable for both teams due to low confidence and proxy usage.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables not available for either Nacional or Vitória Guimarães.
  • Market: Nacional 48.2% (Δ-0.6%) | Draw 26.9% (Δ+-0%) | Vitória Guimarães 24.9% (Δ+0.7%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Nacional T. Carvalho Margarido
T. Carvalho Margarido
VS
Vitória Guimarães G. Moreira Lameiras
G. Moreira Lameiras
0.86
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.27
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Santa Clara Rank: 67 L
AVS Rank: 56 L
Tondela Rank: 60 W
Alverca Rank: 66 W
Benfica Rank: 87 L
Estrela Amadora Rank: 59 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Casa Pia Rank: 62 L
Sporting CP Rank: 88 L
Rio Ave Rank: 64 W
Gil Vicente Rank: 69 W
AVS Rank: 60 D
Tondela Rank: 62 W
11
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
11 - 7 - 11
11
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Nacional
48.18%
Draw
26.88%
Away Vitória Guimarães
24.94%

Movement

Changes since opening
Nacional
-0.64%
Draw
-0.03%
Vitória Guimarães
+0.66%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
63.98
71.31
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Nacional
Vitória Guimarães
Power Score
63.98
71.31
League Position
14
7
Global Rank
366
180

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Nacional — Opponent-weighted form score
Vitória Guimarães — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Nacional Vitória Guimarães

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Nacional CDN Home
0 matches
Vitória Guimarães VSC Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
0
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-13T00:17:03+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
K. Pereira Azarias
1 K. Pereira Azarias
J. Coimbra Aurélio
2 J. Coimbra Aurélio
L. Rodrigues dos Santos
34 L. Rodrigues dos Santos
F. Baptista Gonçalves
33 F. Baptista Gonçalves
J. Mendes Gomes
5 J. Mendes Gomes
F. Barros Soares
22 F. Barros Soares
Matheus Dias
6 Matheus Dias
W. Quembo
7 W. Quembo
D. de Melo Araujo Junior
10 D. de Melo Araujo Junior
P. Pereira da Silva
11 P. Pereira da Silva
J. Ramírez Díaz
9 J. Ramírez Díaz
Pitch
C. da Silva
27 C. da Silva
F. Lagos Dias
82 F. Lagos Dias
R. Abascal Barros
26 R. Abascal Barros
O. Rivas Viondi
4 O. Rivas Viondi
T. Strata
66 T. Strata
B. Mambuene Mukendi
16 B. Mambuene Mukendi
G. Teixeira Nogueira
30 G. Teixeira Nogueira
N. Jose Saviolo
48 N. Jose Saviolo
F. Amorim Silva
20 F. Amorim Silva
J. Costa Nogueira
88 J. Costa Nogueira
G. da Silva Cunha
11 G. da Silva Cunha

General Information

Date & Time :
May 16, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estádio da Madeira
Capacity :
5132
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

1
Kaique
Kaique Goalkeeper
6.92
9
Jesús Ramírez
Jesús Ramírez Centre Forward
7.19
33
Francisco Gonçalves
Francisco Gonçalves Left Back
6.64
2
João Aurélio
João Aurélio Right Back
6.7
7
Witiness Quembo
Witiness Quembo Right Wing
6.55
10
Daniel Jr
Daniel Jr Attacking Midfield
6.79
11
Paulinho Bóia
Paulinho Bóia Left Wing
6.92
5
José Gomes
José Gomes Left Back
6.82
6
Matheus Dias
Matheus Dias Defensive Midfield
6.78
22
Filipe Soares
Filipe Soares Defensive Midfield
6.62
34
Léo Santos
Léo Santos Right Back
6.85

Starting XI ▼

27
Charles
Charles Goalkeeper
6.82
11
Gustavo Silva
Gustavo Silva Centre Forward
6.86
20
Samu
Samu Attacking Midfield
6.96
48
Noah Jose Saviolo
Noah Jose Saviolo Left Wing
6.71
66
Tony Strata
Tony Strata Right Back
6.69
82
Francisco Dias
Francisco Dias Left Back
7.39
4
Óscar Rivas
Óscar Rivas Right Back
6.94
26
Rodrigo Abascal
Rodrigo Abascal Left Back
6.94
30
Gonçalo Nogueira
Gonçalo Nogueira Defensive Midfield
6.83
16
Beni Mukendi
Beni Mukendi Defensive Midfield
6.86
88
Miguel Nogueira
Miguel Nogueira Right Wing
6.71

CONCLUSION

Vitória Guimarães arrives with clear structural superiority, evidenced by their higher power score and league position, making them the team to beat despite Nacional's home advantage at Estádio da Madeira. The lack of form, efficiency, and advanced metrics leaves room for unpredictability, but the visitors' 7.3-point edge suggests they can control proceedings. Nacional must maximize home support to counter this, potentially through defensive solidity. Overall, expect Vitória Guimarães to edge a tightly contested affair, leveraging their quality for a positive result on the road.

Nacional vs Vitória Guimarães preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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