Nacional vs Vitória Guimarães Prediction, Preview and Stats

Portugal flag 2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Estádio da Madeira Sat, 16 May - 5:00 PM
Liga Portugal
Nacional CDN
2 Winner 0
Vitória Guimarães VSC
Full Time Sat, 16 May 5:00 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
Jesús Ramírez - 86' (P), 69'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

In a tightly contested encounter, Nacional emerged victorious with a 2-0 scoreline against Vitória Guimarães. The first half concluded without any goals, leaving the teams even at the interval. Although the away side controlled possession with 65 percent of the ball, they were unable to break down the home defense effectively. Nacional adjusted their approach after halftime and netted both goals in the latter stages of the game. This performance by the home team marked a substantial deviation from pre-game projections. The efficiency of their play aligned closely with the demands of the match situation. Market indicators proved consistent with the final result achieved on the pitch. The lack of red cards prevented any major disruptions to team formations or strategies employed by the coaches.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Nacional achieved a significant deviation from pre-match expectations by securing the victory.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift was in line with the overall performance metrics observed.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data was not available, preventing alignment analysis.
  • Market alignment: The outcome was aligned with market indicators despite the possession disparity.
  • xG expectations: Without available xG metrics, expectations could not be directly compared to the 2-0 result.
  • Event impact: The second-half goals proved decisive in Nacional's 2-0 win after a goalless first half.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion affected the match dynamics or final scoreline.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

R. Baixinho

Portugal 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

R. Gomes Carreira

1st Assistant

Portugal

D. Pereira dos Santos

2nd Assistant

Portugal

F. Dinis Lima

4th Official

Portugal

League averages

Liga Portugal Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 24.39
Yellow cards / match 4.42
Red cards / match 0.16
Penalties / match 0.37
Nacional T. Carvalho Margarido
T. Carvalho Margarido
VS
Vitória Guimarães G. Moreira Lameiras
G. Moreira Lameiras
0.86
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.27
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Santa Clara Rank: 67 L
AVS Rank: 56 L
Tondela Rank: 60 W
Alverca Rank: 66 W
Benfica Rank: 87 L
Estrela Amadora Rank: 59 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Casa Pia Rank: 62 L
Sporting CP Rank: 88 L
Rio Ave Rank: 64 W
Gil Vicente Rank: 69 W
AVS Rank: 60 D
Tondela Rank: 62 W
11
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
11 - 7 - 11
11

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Nacional
46.14%
Draw
27.91%
Away Vitória Guimarães
25.95%

Movement

Changes since opening
Nacional
-51.75%
Draw
+25.99%
Vitória Guimarães
+25.75%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
63.68
71.04
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Nacional
Vitória Guimarães
Power Score
63.68
71.04
League Position
14
7
Global Rank
367
179

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Nacional — Opponent-weighted form score
Vitória Guimarães — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Nacional Vitória Guimarães

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Nacional

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Vitória Guimarães

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Nacional ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Vitória Guimarães
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Nacional Vitória Guimarães
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Nacional Vitória Guimarães
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Nacional
Vitória Guimarães
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Nacional
vs
Vitória Guimarães
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Nacional Vitória Guimarães
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Nacional 0.00
Vitória Guimarães 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Nacional Vitória Guimarães
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Nacional 0.00
Vitória Guimarães 0.00
Nacional
Vitória Guimarães
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • VSC had peak pressure around 73'.
  • VSC started the game with stronger pressure.
CDN Pressure VSC Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: VSC reached the top pressure at 73' (79.99).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 29 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Nacional CDN Home
29 matches
Vitória Guimarães VSC Away
Match Record
11
Wins
11
7
Draws
7
11
Losses
11
Goals
36
Goals Scored
39
39
Goals Conceded
36
-3
Goal Difference
+3

Data last updated: 2026-05-16T16:45:26+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
K. Pereira Azarias
Brazil
1 K. Pereira Azarias
A. Núñez Duarte
Paraguay
16 A. Núñez Duarte
L. Rodrigues dos Santos
Brazil
34 L. Rodrigues dos Santos
J. Lima Cardoso
Brazil
38 J. Lima Cardoso
J. Mendes Gomes
Portugal
5 J. Mendes Gomes
F. Barros Soares
Substitution
Portugal
22 F. Barros Soares
Matheus Dias
Brazil
6 Matheus Dias
C. Abidi
Substitution
Tunisia
15 C. Abidi
W. Quembo
Substitution
Mozambique
7 W. Quembo
J. Ramírez Díaz
Venezuela
9 J. Ramírez Díaz
P. Pereira da Silva
Substitution
Brazil
11 P. Pereira da Silva
Pitch
C. da Silva
Brazil
27 C. da Silva
F. Lagos Dias
82 F. Lagos Dias
R. Abascal Barros
Uruguay
26 R. Abascal Barros
T. Balieiro Lourenço de Carvalho
Brazil
28 T. Balieiro Lourenço de Carvalho
M. Gomes Ferreira Magalhães
Portugal
2 M. Gomes Ferreira Magalhães
R. Ferreira Rocha
Substitution
Portugal
80 R. Ferreira Rocha
G. Teixeira Nogueira
Portugal
30 G. Teixeira Nogueira
O. Camara
Substitution
France
19 O. Camara
F. Amorim Silva
Substitution
Portugal
20 F. Amorim Silva
T. Gomes Arcanjo
Substitution
Cape Verde
18 T. Gomes Arcanjo
G. da Silva Cunha
Brazil
11 G. da Silva Cunha

General Information

Date & Time :
May 16, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estádio da Madeira
Capacity :
5132
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Ricardo Baixinho
Ricardo Jorge Gomes Carreira
Diogo Pereira dos Santos
Flávio Dinis Lima

Statistics

Possession
CDN
41%
VSC
59%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
1 Big Chances Created 1
3 Shots 8
27 Dangerous attacks 43
35 Possession 65
2 Corners 6
12 Free kicks 16
4 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

9 Dribble Attempts 14
21 Throwins 15
18 Successful Headers 13
67 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
2 Injuries 1
8 Goal Kicks 5
6 Successful Dribbles 7
61 Ball Safe 72
4 Substitutions 4
5 Goal Attempts 7
0 Hit Woodwork 1
1 Assists 0
1 Penalties 1

Attacking

73 Attacks 107
2 Counter Attacks 1
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

54 Long Passes 32
219 Passes 404
148 Successful Passes 337
68 Successful Passes Percentage 83
2 Key Passes 10
43 Successful Long Passes Percentage 28
23 Successful Long Passes 9

Defensive

46 Duels Won 47
5 Saves 1
7 Interceptions 7
9 Tackles 11

Build-up

8 Total Crosses 22
2 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

1 Offsides 2
17 Fouls 13

Lineup

Referee : Ricardo Baixinho

Starting XI ▼

1
Kaique
Kaique Goalkeeper
6.92
5
José Gomes
José Gomes Defender
6.82
16
Alan Nuñez
Alan Nuñez Defender
6.75
34
Léo Santos
Léo Santos Defender
6.85
38
Ze Vitor
Ze Vitor Defender
7.01
6
Matheus Dias
Matheus Dias Midfielder
6.78
15
Chiheb Labidi
Chiheb Labidi Midfielder
6.53
18
André Sousa
André Sousa
Midfielder90+1'
6.72
22
Filipe Soares
Filipe Soares Midfielder
6.62
33
Francisco Gonçalves
Francisco Gonçalves
Defender90+1'
6.64
7
Witiness Quembo
Witiness Quembo Attacker
6.55
99
Pablo Ruan
Pablo Ruan
Attacker71'
6.65
9
Jesús Ramírez
Jesús Ramírez Attacker
2
7.19
11
Paulinho Bóia
Paulinho Bóia Attacker
6.92
2
João Aurélio
João Aurélio
Defender90+3'
6.7
Referee : Ricardo Baixinho

Starting XI ▼

27
Charles
Charles Goalkeeper
6.82
2
Maga
Maga Defender
6.7
26
Rodrigo Abascal
Rodrigo Abascal Defender
6.94
28
Thiago Balieiro
Thiago Balieiro Defender
6.69
82
Francisco Dias
Francisco Dias Defender
7.39
18
Telmo Arcanjo
Telmo Arcanjo Midfielder
6.76
88
Miguel Nogueira
Miguel Nogueira
Midfielder80'
6.71
19
Oumar Camara
Oumar Camara Midfielder
6.71
48
Noah Jose Saviolo
Noah Jose Saviolo
Attacker62'
6.71
20
Samu
Samu Midfielder
6.96
50
Zeega
Zeega
Midfielder80'
30
Gonçalo Nogueira
Gonçalo Nogueira Midfielder
6.83
80
Ricardo Rocha
Ricardo Rocha Midfielder
6.51
46
Hugo Nunes
Hugo Nunes
Midfielder80'
11
Gustavo Silva
Gustavo Silva Attacker
6.86

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
João Aurélio → Paulinho Bóia
8th Substitution
90+3'
Event
André Sousa → Chiheb Labidi
7th Substitution
90+1'
Event
Francisco Gonçalves → Filipe Soares
6th Substitution
90+1'
Event
Jesús Ramírez
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
86'
84'
Event
8th Yellowcard
84'
Event
Zeega
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
80'
Event
Miguel Nogueira → Telmo Arcanjo
4th Substitution
80'
Event
Zeega → Samu
3rd Substitution
80'
Event
Hugo Nunes → Ricardo Rocha
5th Substitution
78'
Event
Samu
GoalkeeperSave
Event
Pablo Ruan → Witiness Quembo
2nd Substitution
71'
Event
Jesús Ramírez
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
69'
62'
Event
Noah Jose Saviolo → Oumar Camara
1st Substitution
Event
Matheus Dias
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
54'
1ST-HALF
Event
Witiness Quembo
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
32'
Event
Filipe Soares
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
32'
32'
Event
Francisco Dias
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
José Gomes
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
25'
14'
Event
Ricardo Rocha
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Joao Miguel Coimbra Aurelio is on, and Paulo Henrique Pereira Da Silva is off.
90
Update Update
Francisco Goncalves replaces Filipe Miguel Barros Soares.
90
Attempt Attempt
Gustavo Silva takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Substitution Substitution
Andre Sousa is substituted for Chiheb Labidi.
86
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Jesus Ramirez with his right foot results in a goal.
84
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Martim Guedes receives a yellow card.
83
Attempt Attempt
Gustavo Silva takes a shot with his head, but it's blocked.
80
Update Update
Hugo Nunes replaces Ricardo Rocha.
80
Update Update
Martim Guedes is on, and Fabio Samuel Amorim Silva is off.
80
Substitution Substitution
Miguel Nogueira is substituted off for Emmanuel Jose Manuel Mendes Gomes.
78
Attempt Attempt
Fabio Samuel Amorim Silva takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
77
Attempt Attempt
Penalty saved! Fabio Samuel Amorim Silva's shot is stopped.
70
Update Update
Pablo Ruan is on, and Witiness Chimoio Joao Quembo is off.
69
Attempt Attempt
Jesus Ramirez takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
67
Attempt Attempt
Gustavo Silva's header is saved.
62
Update Update
Noah Saviolo is on, and Oumar Camara is off.
60
Attempt Attempt
Leonardo Rodrigues dos Santos takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
58
Attempt Attempt
Rodrigo Abascal attempts a header but misses the shot.
57
Attempt Attempt
Jesus Ramirez takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
53
Attempt Attempt
Filipe Miguel Barros Soares takes a right-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Telmo Emanuel Gomes Arcanjo takes a left-footed shot but misses.
34
Attempt Attempt
Miguel Magalhes takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
32
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Filipe Miguel Barros Soares receives a yellow card.
26
Attempt Attempt
Telmo Emanuel Gomes Arcanjo takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
25
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jose Manuel Mendes Gomes receives a yellow card.
19
Attempt Attempt
Gustavo Silva attempts a header but misses the shot.
19
Attempt Attempt
Rodrigo Abascal takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
14
Attempt Attempt
Gustavo Silva's header is saved.
14
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ricardo Rocha receives a yellow card.
13
Attempt Attempt
Gustavo Silva's header is saved.

CONCLUSION

Following the final whistle, the 2-0 result in favor of Nacional prompts reflection on tactical execution and opportunity conversion. Vitória Guimarães maintained higher possession statistics yet lacked the decisive edge needed to score. Nacional's second half breakthrough proved pivotal after maintaining parity through the opening forty-five minutes. This outcome aligns with available indicators while demonstrating a clear efficiency in key moments. The structural elements of the game favored the home side's approach ultimately. Event impacts from the goals shifted the dynamics irreversibly. Red card distortion played no role given the clean disciplinary record observed. Such matches emphasize the unpredictable nature of results when efficiency meets determination on the field.

Nacional vs Vitória Guimarães preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

About BestPreviews Methodology & FAQ More Match Reports

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Liga Portugal, Portugal View all league clusters View methodology and FAQ

Author

Daniels Zorge

Daniels Zorge covers football fixtures with a focus on tactical matchups, playing styles, and key details that shape each game.