Nacional vs AVS Prediction, Preview and Stats

Portugal flag 2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Estádio da Madeira Sat, 2 May - 2:30 PM
Liga Portugal
Nacional CDN
1 Winner 2
AVS AFS
Full Time Sat, 2 May 2:30 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Filipe Soares - 4'
Goal
|
Goal
Guilherme Neiva Silva - 63'
Pedro Lima Barros - 22'
Ze Vitor 90+3' Second yellow card
|

CONTEXT

Nacional hosted AVS in a match that ended 1-2 in favor of the visitors, marking a surprising outcome. The home side, deemed the stronger team, controlled possession at 68% compared to AVS's 32%. Halftime saw both teams level at 1-1. A red card to Nacional altered the game's structure in the second half, allowing AVS to score the decisive goal despite the possession disparity. This result showed a significant 84.7% structural deviation towards AVS. Efficiency shifts stayed in line with expectations, but xG data was unavailable, limiting analysis of chance quality. The red card distortion was the key second-half adjustment, enabling the underdogs to triumph.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: AVS result featured a significant 84.7% deviation from pre-match structural expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome did not align with pre-match market probabilities.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable for evaluation.
  • Event impact: Nacional's red card decisively impacted second-half momentum.
  • Red card distortion: Red card caused distortion in second-half game adjustments.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

M. Dias Torres

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

J. Paulo Silva Macedo

1st Assistant

L. Lopes da Costa

2nd Assistant

V. Fernandes Ferreira

4th Official

Nacional T. Carvalho Margarido
T. Carvalho Margarido
VS
AVS J. Oliveira Nunes Henriques
J. Oliveira Nunes Henriques
0.95
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.59
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Tondela Rank: 60 W
Alverca Rank: 66 W
Benfica Rank: 86 L
Estrela Amadora Rank: 59 W
Famalicão Rank: 74 L
Estoril Rank: 67 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sporting CP Rank: 88 D
Rio Ave Rank: 64 D
Vitória Guimarães Rank: 71 D
Gil Vicente Rank: 70 L
Tondela Rank: 60 D
Santa Clara Rank: 66 L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 2 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Nacional
62.42%
Draw
22.29%
Away AVS
15.29%

Movement

Changes since opening
Nacional
+62.23%
Draw
+16.64%
AVS
-78.87%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
65.37
57.65
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Nacional
AVS
Power Score
65.37
57.65
League Position
14
18
Global Rank
317
567

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Nacional — Opponent-weighted form score
AVS — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Nacional AVS

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Nacional

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

AVS

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Nacional ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy AVS
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
39.93
64.22
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
64.22
39.93
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Nacional -2.35 Efficiency Index
vs
AVS +2.35 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Nacional
AVS
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Nacional ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy AVS
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Nacional AVS
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Nacional AVS
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Nacional
AVS
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Nacional
vs
AVS
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Nacional AVS
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Nacional 0.38
AVS 0.61
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Nacional AVS
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Nacional 0.06
AVS 0.02
Nacional
AVS
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • CDN had peak pressure around 30'.
  • CDN started the game with stronger pressure.
CDN Pressure AFS Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: CDN reached the top pressure at 30' (86.24).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Nacional CDN Home
3 matches
AVS AFS Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
2
Draws
2
0
Losses
1
Goals
6
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
6
+2
Goal Difference
-2

Data last updated: 2026-05-03T00:04:55+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
K. Pereira Azarias
Brazil
1 K. Pereira Azarias
A. Núñez Duarte
Substitution
Paraguay
16 A. Núñez Duarte
L. Rodrigues dos Santos
Brazil
34 L. Rodrigues dos Santos
J. Lima Cardoso
Brazil
38 J. Lima Cardoso
J. Mendes Gomes
Substitution
Portugal
5 J. Mendes Gomes
C. Abidi
Substitution
Tunisia
15 C. Abidi
F. Barros Soares
Portugal
22 F. Barros Soares
G. Fonseca de Souza
Substitution
Brazil
27 G. Fonseca de Souza
D. de Melo Araujo Junior
Brazil
10 D. de Melo Araujo Junior
P. Pereira da Silva
Brazil
11 P. Pereira da Silva
J. Ramírez Díaz
Venezuela
9 J. Ramírez Díaz
Pitch
A. Vasconcelos Ramos
Brazil
1 A. Vasconcelos Ramos
L. Rivas
Paraguay
12 L. Rivas
P. Leal Sousa Lima
Brazil
3 P. Leal Sousa Lima
C. Castro
Colombia
42 C. Castro
M. Cardoso Francisco
Brazil
97 M. Cardoso Francisco
P. Lima Barros
Brazil
8 P. Lima Barros
R. Medeiros de Moura
Brazil
70 R. Medeiros de Moura
T. Galletto
Substitution
Uruguay
19 T. Galletto
G. Neiva Silva
Brazil
21 G. Neiva Silva
D. Duarte Garcete
Paraguay
20 D. Duarte Garcete
B. Akinsola
Substitution
Nigeria
11 B. Akinsola

General Information

Date & Time :
May 02, 2026, 02:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estádio da Madeira
Capacity :
5132
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Márcio André Dias Torres
João Paulo Silva Macedo
Luís Carlos Lopes da Costa
Vitor Jorge Fernandes Ferreira

Statistics

Possession
CDN
62%
AFS
38%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 1
9 Shots 10
63 Dangerous attacks 31
68 Possession 32
8 Corners 6
14 Free kicks 8
4 Yellow Cards 2
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

19 Dribble Attempts 15
24 Throwins 19
14 Successful Headers 11
42 Successful Dribbles Percentage 40
8 Successful Dribbles 6
6 Goal Kicks 10
0 Assists 2
66 Ball Safe 69
13 Goal Attempts 7
1 Injuries 5
7 Substitutions 3

Attacking

116 Attacks 70
0 Counter Attacks 5
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

83 Successful Passes Percentage 71
40 Successful Long Passes Percentage 30
360 Successful Passes 143
434 Passes 202
48 Long Passes 44
19 Successful Long Passes 13
17 Key Passes 11

Defensive

10 Interceptions 16
60 Duels Won 44
22 Tackles 19
1 Saves 4

Build-up

40 Total Crosses 17
14 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

8 Fouls 14
0 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Márcio André Dias Torres

Starting XI ▼

1
Kaique
Kaique Goalkeeper
6.98
5
José Gomes
José Gomes Defender
6.81
7
Witiness Quembo
Witiness Quembo
Attacker88'
6.53
16
Alan Nuñez
Alan Nuñez Defender
6.75
2
João Aurélio
João Aurélio
Defender88'
6.7
34
Léo Santos
Léo Santos Defender
6.88
38
Ze Vitor
Ze Vitor Defender
7.02
10
Daniel Jr
Daniel Jr Midfielder
6.75
11
Paulinho Bóia
Paulinho Bóia Midfielder
6.94
15
Chiheb Labidi
Chiheb Labidi Midfielder
6.53
19
Lucas João
Lucas João
Attacker71'
6.62
22
Filipe Soares
Filipe Soares Midfielder
6.57
27
Gabriel Veron
Gabriel Veron Midfielder
6.7
28
Liziero
Liziero
Midfielder46'
7.04
9
Jesús Ramírez
Jesús Ramírez Attacker
7.2
Referee : Márcio André Dias Torres

Starting XI ▼

1
Adriel
Adriel Goalkeeper
7
3
Paulo Vitor
Paulo Vitor Defender
6.48
12
Leonardo Rivas
Leonardo Rivas Defender
6.58
42
Cristian David Castro Devenish
Cristian David Castro Devenish Defender
6.52
97
Mateus Pivô
Mateus Pivô Defender
6.55
8
Pedro Lima Barros
Pedro Lima Barros Midfielder
6.77
19
Tiago Galletto López
Tiago Galletto López Midfielder
6.52
26
Carlos Ponck
Carlos Ponck
Defender64'
6.4
70
Roni
Roni Midfielder
6.78
11
Babatunde Jimoh Akinsola
Babatunde Jimoh Akinsola Attacker
6.58
5
Guillem Molina Gutiérrez
Guillem Molina Gutiérrez
Defender88'
6.54
20
Diego Ariel Duarte Gárcete
Diego Ariel Duarte Gárcete Attacker
6.66
21
Guilherme Neiva Silva
Guilherme Neiva Silva Attacker
6.6

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Ze Vitor
Argument / 1st Yellow/red Card
90+3'
89'
Event
Adriel
Time wasting / 5th Yellowcard
Event
João Aurélio → Alan Nuñez
6th Substitution
88'
Event
Witiness Quembo → José Gomes
8th Substitution
88'
88'
Event
Guillem Molina Gutiérrez → Babatunde Jimoh Akinsola
7th Substitution
88'
Event
João Henriques
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
72'
Event
Tomané
5th Substitution
Event
Pablo Ruan
4th Substitution
71'
Event
Lucas João → Chiheb Labidi
3rd Substitution
71'
64'
Event
Carlos Ponck → Tiago Galletto López
2nd Substitution
63'
Event
Guilherme Neiva Silva
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Ze Vitor
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
58'
Event
Chiheb Labidi
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
55'
Event
Liziero → Gabriel Veron
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
45'
Event
Paulo Vitor
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Gabriel Veron
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
41'
22'
Event
Pedro Lima Barros
Header / 2nd Goal
Event
Filipe Soares
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
4'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Lucas Eduardo Santos Joao takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
90
Update Update
Guillem Molina is on, and Babatunde Jimoh Akinsola is off.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Second yellow card issued to Jose Vitor Lima Cardoso.
90
Attempt Attempt
Jesus Ramirez attempts a header but misses the shot.
90
Update Update
Lucas Eduardo Santos Joao's header is blocked.
90
Update Update
Lucas Eduardo Santos Joao's header is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Igor Matheus Liziero Pereira takes a right-footed shot but misses.
89
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Adriel receives a yellow card.
89
Attempt Attempt
Jesus Ramirez attempts a header but misses the shot.
88
Substitution Substitution
Witiness Chimoio substitutes Joao Quembo for Jose Manuel Mendes Gomes.
88
Update Update
Joao Miguel Coimbra Aurelio is on, and Alan Núñez is off.
86
Attempt Attempt
Lucas Eduardo Santos Joao takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
86
Attempt Attempt
Jose Vitor Lima Cardoso takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
84
Attempt Attempt
Jesus Ramirez takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
82
Attempt Attempt
Pedro Lima takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
80
Attempt Attempt
Babatunde Jimoh Akinsola takes a left-footed shot but misses.
72
Update Update
Antonio Manuel Fernandes Mendes and Tomane are on, while Guilherme Neiva is off.
71
Update Update
Antonio Manuel Fernandes Mendes and Tomane are on, while Guilherme Neiva is off.
71
Update Update
Pablo Ruan is on, and Chiheb Labidi is off.
65
Attempt Attempt
Diego Duarte's left-footed shot is blocked.
65
Attempt Attempt
Pedro Lima takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
64
Substitution Substitution
Carlos dos Santos Rodrigues comes on for Ponck, and Tiago Galletto is substituted off.
63
Attempt Attempt
Guilherme Neiva scores with a left-footed shot.
60
Attempt Attempt
Paulo Henrique Pereira Da Silva takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
60
Attempt Attempt
Guilherme Neiva takes a left-footed shot but misses.
59
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jose Vitor Lima Cardoso receives a yellow card.
57
Attempt Attempt
Guilherme Neiva's right-footed shot is blocked.
55
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Chiheb Labidi receives a yellow card.
54
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Junior takes a left-footed shot but misses.
51
Attempt Attempt
Babatunde Jimoh Akinsola takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
51
Attempt Attempt
Roni takes a left-footed shot but misses.
50
Attempt Attempt
Babatunde Jimoh Akinsola takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
48
Attempt Attempt
Pedro Lima takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
46
Update Update
Igor Matheus Liziero Pereira is on, and Gabriel Veron Fonseca de Souza is off.
45
Attempt Attempt
Jose Manuel Mendes Gomes takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
38
Attempt Attempt
Guilherme Neiva takes a right-footed shot but misses.
36
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Junior's left-footed shot is blocked.
34
Attempt Attempt
Guilherme Neiva takes a right-footed shot but misses.
33
Attempt Attempt
Roni takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
32
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Jose Vitor Lima Cardoso with his head, but it misses the target.
31
Attempt Attempt
Gabriel Veron Fonseca de Souza attempts a header but misses the shot.
30
Attempt Attempt
Pedro Lima takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
28
Attempt Attempt
Gabriel Veron Fonseca de Souza takes a right-footed shot but misses.
25
Attempt Attempt
Gabriel Veron Fonseca de Souza takes a right-footed shot but misses.
25
Attempt Attempt
Chiheb Labidi takes a left-footed shot but misses.
25
Attempt Attempt
Jesus Ramirez takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
25
Attempt Attempt
Gabriel Veron Fonseca de Souza takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
22
Update Update
Goal! Pedro Lima scores, making it 1-1.
22
Update Update
Pedro Lima scores with a header.
15
Update Update
Leonardo Rodrigues dos Santos attempts a header, but it is blocked.
15
Attempt Attempt
Jose Manuel Mendes Gomes takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
10
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Junior takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
10
Attempt Attempt
Babatunde Jimoh Akinsola takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
7
Attempt Attempt
Pedro Lima takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
7
Attempt Attempt
Jesus Ramirez takes a left-footed shot but misses.
4
Attempt Attempt
Filipe Miguel Barros Soares takes a right-footed shot and scores.

CONCLUSION

AVS pulled off a remarkable 1-2 win at Nacional, overcoming 32% possession and a favored opponent through second-half opportunism. Nacional's red card proved costly, distorting the game's flow after a 1-1 halftime deadlock. This significant deviation underscores AVS's resilience and clinical finishing. Without xG data, the focus remains on possession dominance failing to convert, highlighting defensive solidity's value. The result flips pre-match structural views, with efficiency in line but event impact dominant. AVS emerges stronger from this upset.

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Daniels Zorge

Daniels Zorge covers football fixtures with a focus on tactical matchups, playing styles, and key details that shape each game.