NAC Breda vs SC Heerenveen Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands
Eredivisie
SC Heerenveen
HEE
STANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
CONTEXT
NAC Breda claimed a 2-0 victory over SC Heerenveen in a match that saw the home side overcome pre-match perceptions of Heerenveen as the stronger team. NAC Breda took the lead in the first half with a 1-0 scoreline at halftime, maintaining control despite Heerenveen's slight 52% possession edge compared to NAC's 48%. The second goal came after the break, securing the win without any red cards disrupting play. This result represents a significant structural deviation of 62.1% in favor of NAC Breda, highlighting their effective execution against expectations. No major tactical adjustments were noted in the second half, and efficiency metrics stayed in line with assessments. The outcome proved market-aligned, underscoring NAC Breda's clinical finishing and defensive solidity in a tightly contested affair.
TL;DR
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Structural deviation: NAC Breda exhibited a significant 62.1% structural deviation from pre-match expectations.
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Efficiency shift: Efficiency metrics remained in line with pre-match assessments.
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xG alignment: xG data unavailable for alignment evaluation.
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Market alignment: Match outcome aligned with pre-market probabilities.
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xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable due to lack of data.
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Event impact: No major events such as red cards influenced the match flow.
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Red card distortion: Absence of red cards resulted in no distortion to the scoreline.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Match referee
S. van der Eijk
Other match officials
R. Bluemink
1st Assistant
S. de Groot
2nd Assistant
S. Teuben
4th Official
League averages
Eredivisie Based on last 100 matches
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
NAC Breda
SC Heerenveen
Movement
Changes since opening
NAC Breda
SC Heerenveen
Team Power Ranking
i
56.45
69.3
NAC Breda
SC Heerenveen
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
NAC Breda
SC Heerenveen
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
NAC Breda
⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency









Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)








Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
















Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.




























PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- NAC had peak pressure around 38'.
- NAC started the game with stronger pressure.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 29 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
















Data last updated: 2026-05-12T00:02:53+00:00
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General Information
Next Match


NAC Breda
vs
AZ
League: Eredivisie
Kickoff: Sun, 17 May - 12:30 PM
Venue: AFAS Stadion


SC Heerenveen
vs
Ajax
League: Eredivisie
Kickoff: Sun, 17 May - 12:30 PM
Venue: Abe Lenstra Stadion
Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup


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Manager ▼


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Events
CONCLUSION
NAC Breda vs SC Heerenveen preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.
Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.
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Author
Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.

Match Commentary