NAC Breda vs Feyenoord Prediction, Preview and Stats

Netherlands flag 2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands
Rat Verlegh Stadion Sun, 8 Mar - 3:45 PM
Eredivisie
NAC Breda NAC
3 – 3
Feyenoord FEY
Full Time Sun, 8 Mar 3:45 PM
André Ayew - 45+3'
Boyd Lucassen - 39'
Kamal Sowah - 22'
Goal
|
Goal
Ayase Ueda - 52', 19'
Leo Greiml 90+6' Red Card
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. NAC Breda 3–1 Feyenoord. The result saw NAC Breda take the points. NAC Breda showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 43%–57%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: NAC Breda showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

J. Manschot

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Ribbink

1st Assistant

R. Dieperink

4th Official

J. van Zuilen

2nd Assistant

NAC Breda C. Hoefkens
C. Hoefkens
VS
Feyenoord R. van Persie
R. van Persie
0.9
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.76
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Telstar Rank: L
FC Volendam Rank: W
Heracles Almelo Rank: W
Excelsior Rank: L
FC Twente Rank: D
PSV Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Heracles Almelo Rank: W
Sparta Rotterdam Rank: L
SC Heerenveen Rank: D
FC Twente Rank: D
Ajax Rank: L
PEC Zwolle Rank: W
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 5 - 17
17

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home NAC Breda
24.26%
Draw
25.38%
Away Feyenoord
50.36%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
29.49
62.82
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
NAC Breda
Feyenoord
Power Score
29.49
62.82
League Position
17
2
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
NAC Breda — Opponent-weighted form score
Feyenoord — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) NAC Breda Feyenoord

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

NAC Breda

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Feyenoord

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

NAC Breda ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Feyenoord
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
32.33
30.53
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
30.53
32.33
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
NAC Breda +0.17 Efficiency Index
vs
Feyenoord -0.17 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
NAC Breda
Feyenoord
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

NAC Breda ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Feyenoord
Created Set-piece attacking threat
NAC Breda Feyenoord
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
NAC Breda Feyenoord
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
NAC Breda
Feyenoord
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

NAC Breda NAC Home
3 matches
Feyenoord FEY Away
Match Record
0
Wins
2
1
Draws
1
2
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
0
-4
Goal Difference
+4

Data last updated: 2026-03-09T00:11:43+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 08, 2026, 03:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands
Stadium :
Rat Verlegh Stadion
Capacity :
19000
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Jeroen Manschot
Marco Ribbink
Rob Dieperink
Joost van Zuilen

Statistics

Possession
NAC
43%
FEY
57%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 3
4 Big Chances Created 4
4 Shots 3
38 Dangerous attacks 68
43 Possession 57
4 Corners 9
8 Free kicks 12
1 Yellow Cards 4
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

14 Throwins 27
19 Successful Headers 30
8 Goal Kicks 3
11 Dribble Attempts 28
61 Ball Safe 55
5 Goal Attempts 8
5 Successful Dribbles 15
45 Successful Dribbles Percentage 54
2 Assists 3
5 Substitutions 4
1 Injuries 2

Attacking

94 Attacks 120
1 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

71 Successful Passes Percentage 79
40 Successful Long Passes Percentage 45
308 Passes 414
8 Key Passes 14
219 Successful Passes 327
50 Long Passes 49
20 Successful Long Passes 22

Defensive

16 Tackles 19
2 Saves 1
8 Interceptions 12

Build-up

18 Total Crosses 12
6 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

12 Fouls 8
1 Offsides 3

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Enes Mahmutovic → Charles-Andreas Brym
9th Substitution
90+7'
Event
Leo Greiml
Foul / 1st Redcard
90+6'
Event
Leo Greiml
Card adjusted
90+6'
88'
Event
Tsuyoshi Watanabe
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
88'
Event
Anel Ahmedhodzic
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
86'
Event
Tobias van den Elshout → In-beom Hwang
7th Substitution
86'
Event
Casper Tengstedt → Ayase Ueda
8th Substitution
Event
Juho Talvitie → André Ayew
6th Substitution
79'
Event
Denis Odoi → Cherrion Valerius
4th Substitution
72'
Event
Mohamed Nassoh → Boyd Lucassen
3rd Substitution
72'
Event
Raul Paula → Lewis Holtby
5th Substitution
72'
Event
Leo Greiml
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
70'
63'
Event
Aymen Sliti → Raheem Sterling
2nd Substitution
62'
Event
Raheem Sterling
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
52'
Event
Ayase Ueda
Header / 6th Goal
46'
Event
Oussama Targhalline → Luciano Valente
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
45+4'
Event
Jakub Moder
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
Event
André Ayew
Header / 5th Goal
45+3'
Event
Boyd Lucassen
Header / 4th Goal
39'
31'
Event
Luciano Valente
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Kamal Sowah
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
22'
19'
Event
Ayase Ueda
Header / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Anis Hadj Moussa of Feyenoord attempts a left-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Jakub Moder.
90
Update Update
VAR Update: Leo Greiml of NAC Breda receives an upgraded card.
90
Update Update
Casper Tengstedt of Feyenoord earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 12 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Update Update
Feyenoord is flagged for offside. Casper Tengstedt has been caught in an offside position.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to NAC Breda after Oussama Targhalline allowed the ball to go out.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the score tied at 3-3 between NAC Breda and Feyenoord.
90
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Mohamed Nassoh from NAC Breda takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it goes just wide. The assist came from Boy Kemper.
90
Red Card Red Card Important
Leo Greiml from NAC Breda has been shown a red card.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for NAC Breda: Enes Mahmutovic is coming on to replace Charles-Andreas Brym.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Leo Greiml of NAC Breda.
90
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Raul Paula from NAC Breda fires a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Boy Kemper.
88
Update Update
Foul committed by Charles-Andreas Brym of NAC Breda.
88
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Anel Ahmedhodzic of Feyenoord has been shown a yellow card.
88
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Tsuyoshi Watanabe from Feyenoord has been shown a yellow card.
88
Update Update
Tsuyoshi Watanabe from Feyenoord has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
87
Corner Corner
Opportunity goes begging. Boy Kemper from NAC Breda had a shot from the center of the box that went off target. The assist came from Clint Leemans, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
87
Update Update
Max Balard from NAC Breda commits a handball foul.
86
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
86
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Feyenoord: Casper Tengstedt comes on to replace Ayase Ueda.
86
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Feyenoord: Tobias van den Elshout replaces Hwang In-Beom.
82
Update Update
Match interruption - NAC Breda.
82
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to NAC Breda after Anel Ahmedhodzic allowed the ball to go out of play.
82
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Juho Talvitie from NAC Breda takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Charles-Andreas Brym.
80
Update Update
Denis Odoi from NAC Breda has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
80
Update Update
Jordan Bos from Feyenoord committed a foul.
79
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for NAC Breda: Juho Talvitie comes on to replace André Ayew.
78
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Charles-Andreas Brym from NAC Breda took a left-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but it went just wide.
78
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. André Ayew of NAC Breda fires a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The setup for the shot came from Kamal Sowah, who delivered a cross.
76
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
75
Update Update
Match is currently paused due to an injury to Tsuyoshi Watanabe from Feyenoord.
74
Update Update
The pause has ended. They’re set to resume play.
74
Update Update
Mats Deijl from Feyenoord committed a foul.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for NAC Breda: Mohamed Nassoh replaces Boyd Lucassen.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for NAC Breda: Denis Odoi comes on to replace Cherrion Valerius.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for NAC Breda: Raul Paula replaces Lewis Holtby.
71
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity. Ayase Ueda from Feyenoord took a right-footed shot from within the six-yard box, aiming to the left after a corner kick.
71
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Feyenoord after Clint Leemans allowed the ball to go out.
70
Update Update
Ayase Ueda from Feyenoord earned a free kick in an offensive position.
70
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Leo Greiml of NAC Breda has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
70
Update Update
Leo Greiml from NAC Breda committed a foul.
68
Update Update
Offside call against Feyenoord. Aymen Sliti has been caught offside.
66
Update Update
Boy Kemper from NAC Breda committed a foul.
66
Update Update
Anis Hadj Moussa from Feyenoord was awarded a free kick on the right flank.
66
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Oussama Targhalline from Feyenoord attempts a right-footed strike from the center of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Anis Hadj Moussa.
65
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Feyenoord after Boy Kemper allowed the ball to go out.
64
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
63
Update Update
Match is currently paused due to an injury to Charles-Andreas Brym from NAC Breda.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Feyenoord: Aymen Sliti comes on to replace Raheem Sterling.
62
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Raheem Sterling of Feyenoord has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
62
Update Update
Raheem Sterling committed a foul against a Feyenoord player.
62
Update Update
Charles-Andreas Brym from NAC Breda has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
61
Update Update
The pause has ended. They’re set to resume play.
61
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Feyenoord after Clint Leemans allowed the ball to go out.
60
Update Update
Match is currently paused due to an injury to Hwang In-Beom from Feyenoord.
60
Update Update
Foul committed by Charles-Andreas Brym of NAC Breda.
60
Update Update
Hwang In-Beom from Feyenoord has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
58
Update Update
Charles-Andreas Brym from NAC Breda has been awarded a free kick in an attacking position.
58
Update Update
Hwang In-Beom committed a foul against Feyenoord.
56
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Anel Ahmedhodzic of Feyenoord had a header from close range that went wide to the left. The chance was set up by Hwang In-Beom, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
55
Update Update
Raheem Sterling of Feyenoord earned a free kick on the left side.
55
Update Update
Cherrion Valerius from NAC Breda committed a foul.
55
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Feyenoord after Boyd Lucassen allowed the ball to go out.
55
Attempt Attempt
A shot was deflected. Jordan Bos from Feyenoord attempted a left-footed strike from the left side of the penalty area, but it was blocked. The assist came from Jakub Moder.
54
Update Update
Jakub Moder from Feyenoord earned a free kick in an offensive position.
54
Update Update
Fouled by Max Balard of NAC Breda.
52
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! It's NAC Breda 3, Feyenoord 3. Ayase Ueda scores for Feyenoord with a header from the center of the box, sending the ball into the top left corner. The assist came from Jordan Bos, who delivered a precise cross.
50
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive effort underway. Raheem Sterling from Feyenoord takes a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but Daniel Bielica from NAC Breda makes a save in the upper center of the goal, with an assist from Jordan Bos.
48
Update Update
Raheem Sterling committed a foul against a Feyenoord player.
48
Update Update
Cherrion Valerius from NAC Breda has been awarded a free kick on the right side of the field.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Anel Ahmedhodzic from Feyenoord committed a foul.
45
Update Update
The attempt is thwarted. Ayase Ueda from Feyenoord heads the ball from the middle of the penalty area, but it’s blocked. The cross was delivered by Anis Hadj Moussa.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be three minutes of stoppage time.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Feyenoord after Boy Kemper allowed the ball to go out.
45
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Feyenoord after Leo Greiml allowed the ball to go out.
45
Update Update
Match is currently paused due to an injury to Hwang In-Beom from Feyenoord.
45
Update Update
Charles-Andreas Brym from NAC Breda was awarded a free kick on the right side of the field.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jakub Moder from Feyenoord has been shown a yellow card.
45
Corner Corner
Goal! NAC Breda takes the lead 3-2 against Feyenoord! André Ayew scores with a header from the center of the penalty area, placing the ball into the bottom right corner. The assist comes from Lewis Holtby, who delivered a perfect cross.
45
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with NAC Breda leading Feyenoord 3-2.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Feyenoord: Oussama Targhalline comes on to replace Luciano Valente due to an injury.
43
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
42
Update Update
Match is currently paused due to an injury to Luciano Valente from Feyenoord.
41
Update Update
Foul committed by Leo Greiml of NAC Breda.
41
Update Update
Ayase Ueda from Feyenoord has been awarded a free kick in an attacking position.
39
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! NAC Breda has equalized at 2-2 against Feyenoord. Boyd Lucassen scored with a header from the center of the box, directing it into the left corner of the net. The assist came from Boy Kemper, who delivered a perfect cross.
38
Update Update
Feyenoord's Anel Ahmedhodzic committed a foul.
38
Update Update
Charles-Andreas Brym from NAC Breda has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
34
Update Update
Mats Deijl from Feyenoord earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
34
Update Update
Fouled by Lewis Holtby - NAC Breda. nnRephrased: Lewis Holtby from NAC Breda committed a foul.
31
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! NAC Breda 1, Feyenoord 2. Luciano Valente scores for Feyenoord with a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, finding the top right corner of the net. The assist comes from Mats Deijl.
27
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive effort underway. Charles-Andreas Brym from NAC Breda takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but Timon Wellenreuther of Feyenoord makes a save to his left. The assist came from Cherrion Valerius.
26
Update Update
Max Balard from NAC Breda has been awarded a free kick in an attacking position.
26
Update Update
Anel Ahmedhodzic from Feyenoord committed a foul.
22
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Boyd Lucassen from NAC Breda fires a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked.
22
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to NAC Breda after Tsuyoshi Watanabe allowed the ball to go out.
22
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! NAC Breda has equalized against Feyenoord, making it 1-1. Kamal Sowah scores with a left-footed shot from the center of the box, placing it perfectly into the right corner following a corner kick.
19
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! NAC Breda 0, Feyenoord 1. Ayase Ueda scores for Feyenoord with a header from close range, directing the ball into the top left corner. The assist comes from Anis Hadj Moussa, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
19
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Feyenoord after a deflection off Daniel Bielica.
19
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Jakub Moder from Feyenoord takes a shot with his right foot from the right side of the penalty area. However, Daniel Bielica from NAC Breda makes a great save, denying the attempt in the bottom right corner. The assist came from Anis Hadj Moussa.
18
Update Update
Mats Deijl from Feyenoord has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
18
Update Update
Fouled by Lewis Holtby - NAC Breda. nnRephrased: Lewis Holtby from NAC Breda committed a foul.
17
Update Update
André Ayew from NAC Breda earned a free kick in an offensive position.
17
Update Update
Jakub Moder committed a foul against a Feyenoord player.
15
Update Update
Offside call against NAC Breda. Charles-Andreas Brym has been caught offside.
10
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Luciano Valente from Feyenoord took a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area following a corner kick.
9
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Feyenoord after Boy Kemper allowed the ball to go out.
9
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Anis Hadj Moussa from Feyenoord fires a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Jordan Bos.
6
Update Update
Offside call against Feyenoord. Ayase Ueda has been caught offside.
5
Update Update
Raheem Sterling of Feyenoord earned a free kick in an offensive position.
5
Update Update
Foul committed by Charles-Andreas Brym from NAC Breda.
4
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Raheem Sterling from Feyenoord takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it's blocked.
3
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Feyenoord after Leo Greiml allowed the ball to go out.
2
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Jakub Moder from Feyenoord attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: NAC Breda exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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