Motor Lublin vs Lech Poznań Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Arena Lublin Sat, 2 May - 6:15 PM
Ekstraklasa
Motor Lublin Motor Lublin
0 Winner 1
Lech Poznań Lech Poznań
Full Time Sat, 2 May 6:15 PM
Round 31 Regular Season
|
Goal
Leo Bengtsson - 40'

CONTEXT

Motor Lublin faced Lech Poznań in a tightly contested match that ended 0-1 in favor of the visitors. The away side struck first in the opening half, leading 0-1 at halftime, a lead they defended stoutly through the second period. Despite holding 52% possession, the home team struggled to convert their territorial advantage into clear chances, while Lech Poznań's clinical approach paid dividends with minimal wastefulness. No red cards disrupted the flow, allowing both teams to maintain their structures. Lech, considered the stronger outfit pre-match, delivered a professional victory with only minimal deviation from expectations. The result underscores Poznań's efficiency in capitalizing on limited opportunities against a resilient Lublin defense that kept the scoreline narrow until the final whistle.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Lech Poznań exhibited minimal structural deviation of 4.8%.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Final outcome fully aligned with pre-match market positioning.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without underlying data.
  • Event impact: No notable events or adjustments altered match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards prevented any distortion to proceedings.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

K. Arys

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Arys

1st Assistant

M. Janawa

2nd Assistant

M. Jenda

4th Official

Motor Lublin M. Stolarski
M. Stolarski
VS
Lech Poznań N. Frederiksen
N. Frederiksen
1.39
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.78
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Widzew Lodz Rank: 58 L
Katowice Rank: 63 L
Raków Częstochowa Rank: 68 D
Radomiak Radom Rank: 61 D
Zagłębie Lubin Rank: 62 W
Nieciecza Rank: 53 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Legia Warszawa Rank: 65 W
Pogoń Szczecin Rank: 61 W
Katowice Rank: 63 D
Jagiellonia Białystok Rank: 64 D
Nieciecza Rank: 53 W
Zagłębie Lubin Rank: 62 W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 1 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Motor Lublin
0.19%
Draw
4.58%
Away Lech Poznań
95.23%

Movement

Changes since opening
Motor Lublin
-0.08%
Draw
-1.83%
Lech Poznań
+1.91%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
59.06
71.46
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Motor Lublin
Lech Poznań
Power Score
59.06
71.46
League Position
12
1
Global Rank
518
175

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Motor Lublin — Opponent-weighted form score
Lech Poznań — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Motor Lublin Lech Poznań

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Motor Lublin

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Lech Poznań

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Motor Lublin ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lech Poznań
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
27.02
59.27
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
59.27
27.02
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Motor Lublin -2.99 Efficiency Index
vs
Lech Poznań +2.99 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Motor Lublin
Lech Poznań
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Motor Lublin ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lech Poznań
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Motor Lublin Lech Poznań
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Motor Lublin Lech Poznań
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Motor Lublin
Lech Poznań
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Motor Lublin
vs
Lech Poznań
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Motor Lublin Lech Poznań
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Motor Lublin 0.18
Lech Poznań 0.27
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Motor Lublin Lech Poznań
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Motor Lublin 0.01
Lech Poznań 0.00
Motor Lublin
Lech Poznań
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Lech Poznań had peak pressure around 11'.
  • Lech Poznań started the game with stronger pressure.
Motor Lublin Pressure Lech Poznań Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Lech Poznań reached the top pressure at 11' (90.81).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Motor Lublin Motor Lublin Home
3 matches
Lech Poznań Lech Poznań Away
Match Record
1
Wins
1
1
Draws
1
1
Losses
1
Goals
5
Goals Scored
5
5
Goals Conceded
5
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-03T00:06:34+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 4-2-2-2
Pitch
G. Tratnik
Slovenia
33 G. Tratnik
P. Stolarski
Substitution
Poland
28 P. Stolarski
M. Bartoš
Slovakia
39 M. Bartoš
A. Najemski
Poland
18 A. Najemski
F. Luberecki
Poland
24 F. Luberecki
S. Samper Montaña
Spain
6 S. Samper Montaña
M. Ndiaye
Substitution
Senegal
30 M. Ndiaye
I. dos Santos Rodrigues
Substitution
Portugal
7 I. dos Santos Rodrigues
B. Wolski
Poland
68 B. Wolski
B. van Hoeven
Substitution
Netherlands
19 B. van Hoeven
K. Czubak
Substitution
Poland
9 K. Czubak
Pitch
B. Mrozek
Poland
41 B. Mrozek
M. Gurgul
Substitution
Poland
15 M. Gurgul
A. Milić
Croatia
16 A. Milić
W. Mońka
Poland
27 W. Mońka
J. Vieira Pereira
Portugal
2 J. Vieira Pereira
A. Kozubal
Poland
43 A. Kozubal
T. Ouma
Kenya
6 T. Ouma
L. Bengtsson
Substitution
Sweden
14 L. Bengtsson
A. Gholizadeh
Substitution
Iran
8 A. Gholizadeh
P. Wålemark
Substitution
Sweden
10 P. Wålemark
M. Ishak
Sweden
9 M. Ishak

General Information

Date & Time :
May 02, 2026, 06:15 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Arena Lublin
Capacity :
15243
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Marek Arys
Marcin Janawa
Mateusz Jenda
Karol Arys

Statistics

Possession
Motor Lublin
49%
Lech Poznań
51%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 0
11 Shots 24
61 Dangerous attacks 89
52 Possession 48
3 Corners 7
8 Free kicks 10

Match Overview

17 Dribble Attempts 22
41 Successful Dribbles Percentage 55
16 Throwins 21
7 Successful Dribbles 12
15 Goal Kicks 9
105 Ball Safe 104
8 Goal Attempts 20
5 Substitutions 5
0 Injuries 2
0 Assists 1

Attacking

110 Attacks 121
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

82 Successful Passes Percentage 82
7 Key Passes 21
422 Passes 384
19 Successful Long Passes 24
52 Long Passes 58
348 Successful Passes 316
37 Successful Long Passes Percentage 41

Defensive

5 Saves 1
16 Tackles 14
41 Duels Won 47
7 Interceptions 7

Build-up

13 Total Crosses 14
6 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

10 Fouls 8
2 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Karol Arys

Starting XI ▼

33
Gasper Tratnik
Gasper Tratnik Goalkeeper
6.52
18
Arkadiusz Najemski
Arkadiusz Najemski Defender
6.7
24
Filip Luberecki
Filip Luberecki Defender
6.64
28
Pawel Stolarski
Pawel Stolarski Defender
6.54
17
Filip Wojcik
Filip Wojcik
Defender77'
6.52
39
Marek Bartos
Marek Bartos Defender
6.69
6
Sergi Samper
Sergi Samper Midfielder
6.75
7
Ivo Rodrigues
Ivo Rodrigues Midfielder
6.92
10
Kacper Karasek
Kacper Karasek
Midfielder86'
6.46
19
Bradly van Hoeven
Bradly van Hoeven Midfielder
6.61
11
Fábio Ronaldo
Fábio Ronaldo
Midfielder65'
6.77
30
Mbaye Ndiaye
Mbaye Ndiaye Midfielder
6.86
26
Michal Krol
Michal Krol
Midfielder65'
6.64
68
Bartosz Wolski
Bartosz Wolski Midfielder
7.08
9
Karol Czubak
Karol Czubak Attacker
7.14
77
Renat Dadashov
Renat Dadashov
Attacker77'
6.54
Referee : Karol Arys

Starting XI ▼

41
Bartosz Mrozek
Bartosz Mrozek Goalkeeper
6.91
2
Joel Pereira
Joel Pereira Defender
7.18
15
Michal Gurgul
Michal Gurgul Defender
6.91
20
Robert Gumny
Robert Gumny
Defender79'
6.66
16
Antonio Milic
Antonio Milic Defender
6.93
27
Wojciech Monka
Wojciech Monka Defender
6.97
6
Timothy Ouma
Timothy Ouma Midfielder
6.66
8
Ali Gholizadeh
Ali Gholizadeh Midfielder
7.14
11
Daniel Håkans
Daniel Håkans
Midfielder19'
6.44
14
Leo Bengtsson
Leo Bengtsson Midfielder
6.76
88
Taofeek Ismaheel
Taofeek Ismaheel
Midfielder79'
6.94
43
Antoni Kozubal
Antoni Kozubal Midfielder
6.89
9
Mikael Ishak
Mikael Ishak Attacker
7.25
10
Patrik Wålemark
Patrik Wålemark Attacker
6.73
24
Filip Jagiello
Filip Jagiello
Midfielder65'
6.86

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Kacper Karasek → Ivo Rodrigues
10th Substitution
86'
79'
Event
Robert Gumny → Michal Gurgul
8th Substitution
79'
Event
Taofeek Ismaheel → Leo Bengtsson
9th Substitution
Event
Renat Dadashov → Karol Czubak
6th Substitution
77'
Event
Filip Wojcik → Pawel Stolarski
7th Substitution
77'
Event
Fábio Ronaldo → Bradly van Hoeven
5th Substitution
65'
Event
Michal Krol → Mbaye Ndiaye
3rd Substitution
65'
65'
Event
Filip Jagiello → Patrik Wålemark
2nd Substitution
65'
Event
Luis Palma → Daniel Håkans
4th Substitution
1ST-HALF
40'
Event
Leo Bengtsson
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
19'
Event
Daniel Håkans → Ali Gholizadeh
1st Substitution

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Luis Enrique Palma Oseguera takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Taofeek Ismaheel takes a right-footed shot but misses.
89
Attempt Attempt
Antonio Milic attempts a header but misses the shot.
88
Attempt Attempt
Robert Gumny takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
86
Update Update
Kacper Karasek is on, and Ivo Rodrigues is off.
85
Attempt Attempt
Filip Jagiello takes a right-footed shot but misses.
84
Attempt Attempt
Fabio Ronaldo takes a right-footed shot but misses.
80
Update Update
Mikael Ishak's header attempt misses the target.
80
Attempt Attempt
Robert Gumny takes a shot with his head, but it misses the target.
79
Attempt Attempt
Mikael Ishak takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
79
Update Update
Taofeek Ismaheel comes on for Leo Bengtsson.
79
Update Update
Robert Gumny replaces Michal Gurgul.
77
Update Update
Filip Wojcik comes on for Pawel Stolarski.
77
Update Update
Renat Dadashov replaces Karol Czubak.
74
Attempt Attempt
Karol Czubak takes a right-footed shot but misses.
73
Attempt Attempt
Timothy Ouma's right-footed shot is blocked.
73
Attempt Attempt
Timothy Ouma takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
69
Attempt Attempt
Arkadiusz Najemski attempts a header but misses the shot.
69
Attempt Attempt
Marek Kristian Bartos attempts a header but misses the shot.
65
Update Update
Fabio Ronaldo comes on for Bradly van Hoeven.
65
Update Update
Filip Jagiello comes on for Patrik Walemark.
65
Update Update
Filip Jagiello replaces Daniel Hakans.
65
Substitution Substitution
Michal Krol is substituted off for Mbaye Jacques Ndiaye.
62
Attempt Attempt
Bartosz Wolski takes a right-footed shot but misses.
56
Attempt Attempt
Arkadiusz Najemski takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
55
Attempt Attempt
Antonio Milic takes a shot with his head but misses.
55
Attempt Attempt
Antonio Milic attempts a header but misses the shot.
52
Attempt Attempt
Leo Bengtsson takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
50
Attempt Attempt
Antoni Kozubal takes a right-footed shot but misses.
50
Attempt Attempt
Mikael Ishak takes a right-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Antoni Kozubal's left-footed shot is saved.
40
Attempt Attempt
Leo Bengtsson takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
38
Attempt Attempt
Karol Czubak takes a left-footed shot but misses.
34
Attempt Attempt
Antoni Kozubal's right-footed shot is blocked.
34
Attempt Attempt
Leo Bengtsson takes a left-footed shot but misses.
33
Attempt Attempt
Filip Luberecki takes a left-footed shot but misses.
31
Attempt Attempt
Patrik Walemark takes a left-footed shot but misses.
30
Attempt Attempt
Patrik Walemark takes a left-footed shot but misses.
27
Attempt Attempt
Bartosz Wolski takes a right-footed shot but misses.
27
Attempt Attempt
Patrik Walemark takes a left-footed shot but misses.
21
Attempt Attempt
Leo Bengtsson takes a left-footed shot but misses.
19
Substitution Substitution
Daniel Hakans is substituted off for Ali Gholizadeh.
9
Attempt Attempt
Ali Gholizadeh takes a left-footed shot but misses.
7
Attempt Attempt
Patrik Walemark's left-footed shot is blocked.
2
Attempt Attempt
Mikael Ishak's left-footed shot is blocked.

CONCLUSION

Lech Poznań secured a deserved 0-1 win over Motor Lublin, converting their first-half goal into three vital points. With 48% possession, they outperformed expectations through sharp finishing and solid defending, while the hosts' 52% share yielded no returns. This minimal-deviation result reinforces Poznań's status as the stronger team, maintaining efficiency without disruptive events. Lublin's efforts kept it close, but lacked the edge to equalize. The victory positions Lech favorably, highlighting their ability to grind out results away from home against stubborn opposition.

Motor Lublin vs Lech Poznań preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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