Motherwell vs Falkirk Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Fir Park Sat, 4 Apr - 2:00 PM
Premiership Motherwell MOT 
2 
3
3
Falkirk Falkirk Full Time Sat, 4 Apr 2:00 PM
Round 32 · Regular Season
Tawanda Maswanhise - 90+4'
Elliot Watt - 34'
|
Calvin Miller - 62' (P)
Ben Broggio - 45'
Barney Stewart - 3'
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Promotion Promotion Playoffs Relegation
Data last checked: May 15
CONTEXT
The match between Motherwell and Falkirk has finished, with Motherwell securing a full-time 2-1 victory. This outcome aligned with the pre-match market, which favored the home side as the stronger team with a 48.8% probability of winning, compared to a 26.6% chance for a draw and a 24.6% chance for an away upset. Despite entering as the expected winners, Motherwell's victory still registered a significant deviation level of 51.2% to finalize the result in their favor. Motherwell dictated the overall flow of the game, dominating the ball with 62% possession while Falkirk was limited to just 38%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, meaning it cannot be mathematically evaluated whether the final scoreline was strictly consistent with the underlying scoring opportunities created by both clubs. The overall efficiency shift for the match remained in line with standard expectations. Additionally, the game concluded without any major disciplinary events or numerical disadvantages altering the tactical landscape, as zero red cards were issued to either team.
TL;DR
- Structural deviation: Motherwell showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
- Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
- xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
- Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
- xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
- Event impact: No major event distortion.
- Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Match referee
D. Nicolson
• 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 
0.12
0.12 Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0
Other match officials
R. MacLeod
1st Assistant
S. Anderson
2nd Assistant
G. Soutar
4th Official
J. Askou
VS
J. McGlynn
1.84
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.52
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hibernian Rank: 68 D
Celtic Rank: 77 L
Dundee Rank: 59 L
Dundee United Rank: 62 W
St. Mirren Rank: 58 W
Aberdeen Rank: 56 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
St. Mirren Rank: 56 L
Aberdeen Rank: 57 D
Kilmarnock Rank: 56 W
Hearts Rank: 73 L
Dundee United Rank: 62 L
Dundee Rank: 59 W
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 6 - 6
6
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min) Motherwell48.76%
Draw
26.63%
Falkirk24.6%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
66.75 60.05 0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Motherwell FalkirkPower Score
66.75
60.05
League Position
4
6
Global Rank
268
306
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Motherwell — Opponent-weighted form score
Falkirk — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Motherwell Falkirk
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
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Motherwell
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Falkirk
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Motherwell ⚠ Proxyvs
⚠ Proxy Falkirk
Attacking Efficiency Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
27.26
35.39
Defensive Efficiency Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
35.39
27.26
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Motherwell -0.78 Efficiency Index
vs
Falkirk +0.78 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Motherwell
Falkirk
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Motherwell ⚠ Proxyvs
⚠ Proxy Falkirk
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Motherwell Falkirk Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Motherwell Falkirk Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Motherwell
Falkirk
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
–
Motherwellvs
Falkirk
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Motherwell Falkirk Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Motherwell 0.24
Falkirk 0.41
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Motherwell Falkirk Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Motherwell 0.10
Falkirk 0.03
Motherwell
Falkirk
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 20 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Motherwell MOT Home
20 matches
Falkirk Falkirk Away
Match Record 8
Wins
6
6
Draws
6
6
Losses
8
Goals 27
Goals Scored
21
21
Goals Conceded
27
+6
Goal Difference
-6
Data last updated: 2026-04-05T00:03:30+00:00
STARTING XI
Motherwell Falkirk Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
13 C. Ward
J. McGhee
#673'
2 S. O'Donnell
16 P. McGinn
57 S. Welsh
L. Ross
#2879'
45 M. Emmanuel
O. Priestman
#2573'
12 L. Fadinger
20 E. Watt
S. Nicholson
#1963'
7 T. Sparrow
21 E. Just
90 I. Sa’id
18 T. Maswanhise
19 S. Bain
3 L. McCann
5 L. Henderson
28 F. Lissah
2 K. Adams
8 B. Spencer
21 D. Tait
K. Wilson
#2271'
14 F. Yeats
B. Parkinson
#2784'
29 C. Miller
E. Ross
#2371'
11 B. Broggio
B. Graham
#779'
16 B. Stewart
General Information
📅 Date & Time :
Apr 04, 2026, 02:00 PM
🏆 Competition :
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 32 · Regular Season
🏟️ Stadium :
Fir Park
👥 Capacity :
13742
🌱 Pitch Surface :
Grass
🌤️ Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
🧑⚖️ Referees :
Duncan Nicolson
Ross MacLeod
Scott Robert Anderson
Greg Soutar
Next Match
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vs
Hearts
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Kickoff: Sat, 11 Apr - 2:00 PM
Venue: Away
Falkirk
vs
Rangers
League: Premiership
Kickoff: Sun, 12 Apr - 11:00 AM
Venue: Home
Statistics
Possession
MOT
58%
Falkirk
42%
Top Statistics
2 Goals 3
3 Big Chances Created 3
14 Shots 12
58 Dangerous attacks 29
62 Possession 38
6 Corners 2
15 Free kicks 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
Match Overview
47 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33
0 Penalties 1
0 Hit Woodwork 1
4 Substitutions 4
7 Successful Dribbles 4
11 Goal Kicks 7
1 Assists 1
15 Dribble Attempts 12
20 Throwins 13
12 Successful Headers 11
90 Ball Safe 74
Attacking
99 Attacks 87
2 Big Chances Missed 0
Possession
83 Successful Passes Percentage 74
9 Key Passes 7
68 Long Passes 77
435 Successful Passes 239
525 Passes 324
41 Successful Long Passes 32
60 Successful Long Passes Percentage 42
Defensive
8 Interceptions 14
50 Duels Won 56
2 Saves 5
19 Tackles 26
Build-up
23 Total Crosses 15
5 Accurate Crosses 3
Discipline
0 Offsides 3
15 Fouls 15
Lineup
Motherwell Referee : Duncan Nicolson
Manager ▼
J. Askou Coach
Starting XI ▼
13 Calum Ward Goalkeeper
2 Stephen O'Donnell Defender
6Jordan McGhee
Defender73'
16 Paul McGinn Defender
45 Emmanuel Longelo Defender
28Luca Ross
Attacker79'
57 Stephen Welsh Defender
7 Tom Sparrow Midfielder
19Sam Nicholson
Attacker63'
12 Lukas Fadinger Midfielder
25Oscar Priestman
Midfielder73'
20 Elliot Watt Midfielder
21 Elijah Just Midfielder
90 Ibrahim Said Midfielder
18 Tawanda Maswanhise Attacker
Substitutes ▼
19Sam Nicholson
Attacker63'
6Jordan McGhee
Defender73'
25Oscar Priestman
Midfielder73'
28Luca Ross
Attacker79'
Bench ▼
31 Matty Connelly Goalkeeper
11
Andy Halliday Midfielder
39 Zander McAllister Midfielder
42 Rocco McColm Midfielder
53 Blane Watson Midfielder
Falkirk Referee : Duncan Nicolson
Manager ▼
J. McGlynn Coach
Starting XI ▼
19 Scott Bain Goalkeeper
2 Keelan Adams Defender
3 Leon McCann Defender
5 Liam Henderson Defender
28 Filip Lissah Defender
8 Brad Spencer Midfielder
11 Ben Broggio Midfielder
23Ethan Ross
Attacker71'
14 Finn Yeats Midfielder
22Kyrell Wilson
Attacker71'
21 Dylan Tait Midfielder
29 Calvin Miller Midfielder
27Ben Parkinson
Attacker84'
16 Barney Stewart Attacker
7Brian Graham
Attacker79'
Substitutes ▼
23Ethan Ross
Attacker71'
22Kyrell Wilson
Attacker71'
7Brian Graham
Attacker79'
27Ben Parkinson
Attacker84'
Bench ▼
1
Nicky Hogarth Goalkeeper
6
Coll Donaldson Defender
15
Lewis Neilson Defender
17
Henry Cartwright Midfielder
20
Connor Allan Midfielder
Events
2ND-HALF
Tawanda Maswanhise
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
90+4'
85'
Brad Spencer
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
84'
Ben Parkinson → Calvin Miller
8th Substitution
Luca Ross → Emmanuel Longelo
7th Substitution
79'
79'
Brian Graham → Barney Stewart
6th Substitution
Jordan McGhee → Stephen O'Donnell
4th Substitution
73'
Oscar Priestman → Lukas Fadinger
5th Substitution
73'
71'
Ethan Ross → Ben Broggio
2nd Substitution
71'
Kyrell Wilson → Finn Yeats
3rd Substitution
Sam Nicholson → Tom Sparrow
1st Substitution
63'
62'
Calvin Miller
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
Ibrahim Said
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
61'
56'
Keelan Adams
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
45'
Ben Broggio
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
42'
Liam Henderson
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Elliot Watt
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
34'
Tom Sparrow
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
25'
3'
Barney Stewart
Header / 1st Goal
CONCLUSION
Structural assessment: Motherwell exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.
Motherwell vs Falkirk preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.
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Match Commentary