Motherwell vs Celtic Prediction, Preview and Stats

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Fir Park Wed, 13 May - 7:00 PM
Premiership
Motherwell MOT
2 Winner 3
Celtic CEL
Full Time Wed, 13 May 7:00 PM
Round 37 2nd Phase
Liam Gordon - 85'
Elliot Watt - 17'
Goal
|
Goal
Kelechi Iheanacho - 90+9' (P)
Benjamin Nygren - 58'
Daizen Maeda - 41'

CONTEXT

Motherwell faced Celtic in a gripping Scottish Premiership match at Fir Park, concluding with a 2-3 victory for the visitors. The first half ended evenly at 1-1, mirroring the tight possession battle where Motherwell held 48% to Celtic's 52%. Celtic, entering as the stronger team, showcased their edge in the second half to secure the win without any red cards affecting play. The result featured a significant 41.7% structural deviation favoring Celtic, while efficiencies remained in line with norms. Market alignment held firm, reflecting pre-match sentiments. Absent xG data limits deeper chance evaluation, but the outcome underscores Celtic's clinical execution against a resilient Motherwell side that pushed throughout.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match showed a significant 41.7% structural deviation favoring Celtic.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiencies shifted in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unassessable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unevaluable without available data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the flow.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards caused no distortion to the match.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

J. Beaton

Scotland 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

D. McGeachie

1st Assistant

Scotland

J. Bell

2nd Assistant

Scotland

C. Steven

4th Official

Scotland

League averages

Premiership Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 19.91
Yellow cards / match 3.39
Red cards / match 0.18
Penalties / match 0.21
Motherwell J. Askou
J. Askou
VS
Celtic M. O'Neill
M. O'Neill
1.72
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.12
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hearts Rank: 75 D
Falkirk Rank: 64 L
Rangers Rank: 77 W
Hearts Rank: 75 L
Falkirk Rank: 65 L
Hibernian Rank: 69 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rangers Rank: 77 W
Hibernian Rank: 68 W
Falkirk Rank: 65 W
St. Mirren Rank: 57 W
Dundee Rank: 59 W
Dundee United Rank: 61 L
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 11 - 54
54

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Motherwell
19.97%
Draw
21.75%
Away Celtic
58.29%

Movement

Changes since opening
Motherwell
+15.9%
Draw
-69.24%
Celtic
+53.36%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
67.27
79.25
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Motherwell
Celtic
Power Score
67.27
79.25
League Position
4
3
Global Rank
272
67

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Motherwell — Opponent-weighted form score
Celtic — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Motherwell Celtic

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Motherwell

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Celtic

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Motherwell ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Celtic
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Motherwell Celtic
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Motherwell Celtic
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Motherwell
Celtic
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Motherwell
vs
Celtic
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Motherwell Celtic
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Motherwell 0.00
Celtic 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Motherwell Celtic
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Motherwell 0.00
Celtic 0.00
Motherwell
Celtic
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • MOT had peak pressure around 87'.
  • CEL started the game with stronger pressure.
MOT Pressure CEL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: MOT reached the top pressure at 87' (80.54).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 70 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Motherwell MOT Home
70 matches
Celtic CEL Away
Match Record
5
Wins
54
11
Draws
11
54
Losses
5
Goals
53
Goals Scored
174
174
Goals Conceded
53
-121
Goal Difference
+121
Expected Goals
0.54
xG
2.09
2.09
xGA
0.54

Data last updated: 2026-05-13T18:31:13+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
C. Ward
England
13 C. Ward
T. Sparrow
Wales
7 T. Sparrow
S. O'Donnell
Scotland
2 S. O'Donnell
J. Koutroumbis
Substitution
Australia
22 J. Koutroumbis
M. Emmanuel
England
45 M. Emmanuel
L. Fadinger
Austria
12 L. Fadinger
E. Watt
Scotland
20 E. Watt
I. Sa’id
Substitution
Nigeria
90 I. Sa’id
C. Slattery
Substitution
England
8 C. Slattery
T. Maswanhise
Substitution
Zimbabwe
18 T. Maswanhise
E. Just
Substitution
New Zealand
21 E. Just
Pitch
V. Sinisalo
Finland
12 V. Sinisalo
K. Tierney
Substitution
Scotland
63 K. Tierney
L. Scales
Republic of Ireland
5 L. Scales
A. Trusty
United States
6 A. Trusty
A. Johnston
Substitution
Canada
2 A. Johnston
C. McGregor
Scotland
42 C. McGregor
A. Engels
Belgium
27 A. Engels
H. Yang
Substitution
South Korea
13 H. Yang
B. Nygren
Substitution
Sweden
8 B. Nygren
S. Tounekti
Substitution
Tunisia
23 S. Tounekti
D. Maeda
Japan
38 D. Maeda

General Information

Date & Time :
May 13, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 37 · 2nd Phase
Stadium :
Fir Park
Capacity :
13742
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
John Beaton
David McGeachie
Jonathan Bell
Colin Steven

Statistics

Possession
MOT
49%
CEL
51%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 3
2 Big Chances Created 4
8 Shots 2
53 Dangerous attacks 36
48 Possession 52
4 Corners 3
15 Free kicks 8
2 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

22 Throwins 18
69 Successful Dribbles Percentage 40
13 Dribble Attempts 10
7 Goal Kicks 4
9 Successful Dribbles 4
1 Hit Woodwork 1
78 Ball Safe 88
1 Injuries 1
6 Goal Attempts 6
0 Assists 1
5 Substitutions 5
0 Penalties 1

Attacking

98 Attacks 99
1 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

406 Successful Passes 465
493 Passes 546
82 Successful Passes Percentage 85
52 Successful Long Passes Percentage 54
64 Long Passes 54
33 Successful Long Passes 29
7 Key Passes 5

Defensive

43 Duels Won 44
14 Tackles 19
13 Interceptions 6
0 Saves 3

Build-up

16 Total Crosses 11
1 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

9 Fouls 15
1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : John Beaton

Starting XI ▼

13
Calum Ward
Calum Ward Goalkeeper
7.08
2
Stephen O'Donnell
Stephen O'Donnell Defender
6.85
7
Tom Sparrow
Tom Sparrow Defender
6.65
22
John Koutroumbis
John Koutroumbis Defender
6.93
4
Liam Gordon
Liam Gordon
Defender81'
6.78
45
Emmanuel Longelo
Emmanuel Longelo Defender
6.86
8
Callum Slattery
Callum Slattery Midfielder
7.12
77
Regan Charles-Cook
Regan Charles-Cook
Attacker69'
6.59
12
Lukas Fadinger
Lukas Fadinger Midfielder
6.92
18
Tawanda Maswanhise
Tawanda Maswanhise Midfielder
7.01
25
Oscar Priestman
Oscar Priestman
Midfielder88'
6.75
20
Elliot Watt
Elliot Watt Midfielder
7.38
90
Ibrahim Said
Ibrahim Said Midfielder
6.77
19
Sam Nicholson
Sam Nicholson
Attacker81'
6.63
21
Elijah Just
Elijah Just Attacker
7.14
66
Callum Hendry
Callum Hendry
Attacker88'
6.7
Referee : John Beaton

Starting XI ▼

12
Viljami Sinisalo
Viljami Sinisalo Goalkeeper
6.67
2
Alistair Johnston
Alistair Johnston Defender
7.18
56
Anthony Ralston
Anthony Ralston
Defender70'
6.85
5
Liam Scales
Liam Scales Defender
7.08
6
Auston Trusty
Auston Trusty Defender
6.99
63
Kieran Tierney
Kieran Tierney Defender
7.26
36
Marcelo Saracchi
Marcelo Saracchi
Defender78'
6.91
8
Benjamin Nygren
Benjamin Nygren Midfielder
7.38
41
Reo Hatate
Reo Hatate
Midfielder70'
6.87
13
Hyun-jun Yang
Hyun-jun Yang Midfielder
6.99
49
James Forrest
James Forrest
Midfielder78'
6.74
23
Sebastian Tounekti
Sebastian Tounekti Midfielder
6.88
17
Kelechi Iheanacho
Kelechi Iheanacho
Attacker70'
6.78
27
Arne Engels
Arne Engels Midfielder
6.93
42
Callum McGregor
Callum McGregor Midfielder
7.11
38
Daizen Maeda
Daizen Maeda Attacker
6.91

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Emmanuel Longelo
Time wasting / 4th Yellowcard
90+9'
90+9'
Event
Kelechi Iheanacho
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
90+7'
Event
Auston Trusty
Penalty awarded
Event
Sam Nicholson
Time wasting / 2nd Yellowcard
90+1'
90+1'
Event
Liam Scales
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Oscar Priestman → Tawanda Maswanhise
10th Substitution
88'
Event
Callum Hendry → Elijah Just
9th Substitution
88'
Event
Liam Gordon
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
85'
Event
Sam Nicholson → Ibrahim Said
8th Substitution
81'
Event
Liam Gordon → John Koutroumbis
7th Substitution
81'
78'
Event
James Forrest → Hyun-jun Yang
5th Substitution
78'
Event
Marcelo Saracchi → Kieran Tierney
6th Substitution
70'
Event
Reo Hatate → Benjamin Nygren
2nd Substitution
70'
Event
Kelechi Iheanacho → Sebastian Tounekti
3rd Substitution
70'
Event
Anthony Ralston → Alistair Johnston
4th Substitution
Event
Regan Charles-Cook → Callum Slattery
1st Substitution
69'
61'
Event
Daizen Maeda
Off the ball foul / 1st Yellowcard
58'
Event
Benjamin Nygren
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
1ST-HALF
41'
Event
Daizen Maeda
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Elliot Watt
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
17'

Match Commentary

78
Substitution Substitution
Marcelo Saracchi is substituted for Celtic in the 78th minute.
78
Substitution Substitution
James Forrest is substituted for Celtic in the 78th minute.
70
Substitution Substitution
Kelechi Iheanacho is substituted for Celtic in the 70th minute.
70
Substitution Substitution
Anthony Ralston is substituted for Celtic in the 70th minute.
70
Substitution Substitution
Reo Hatate is substituted for Celtic in the 70th minute.
69
Substitution Substitution
Regan Charles-Cook is substituted for Motherwell in the 69th minute.
61
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Daizen Maeda of Celtic receives a yellow card in the 61st minute.
58
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Benjamin Nygren scores for Celtic in the 58th minute.
41
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Daizen Maeda scores for Celtic in the 41st minute.
17
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Elliot Watt scores for Motherwell in the 17th minute.

CONCLUSION

Celtic's 3-2 triumph over Motherwell cements their superiority, transforming a 1-1 halftime stalemate into a hard-fought win amid balanced possession. Motherwell's 48% share highlighted their tenacity, yet Celtic's second-half prowess prevailed sans red card interruptions. The 41.7% significant structural deviation spotlights Celtic's outperformance, with efficiencies steady and market alignment intact. Lacking xG metrics tempers full analysis, but this result bolsters Celtic's campaign momentum while crediting Motherwell's defiance in defeat.

Motherwell vs Celtic preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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