Moreirense vs Estoril Prediction, Preview and Stats

Portugal flag 2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas Mon, 20 Apr - 7:15 PM
Liga Portugal
Moreirense MFC
1 Winner 0
Estoril EPF
Full Time Mon, 20 Apr 7:15 PM
Round 30 Regular Season
Alan de Souza Guimarães - 12'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Moreirense claimed a narrow 1-0 home win against Estoril, striking first in the opening half to lead 1-0 at halftime. Despite controlling just 43% possession to Estoril's 57%, the hosts maintained a resolute defense that frustrated the visitors' attacks. Estoril entered as the pre-match stronger team but could not break through, resulting in a clean sheet for Moreirense. This outcome marked a significant 65.4% structural deviation favoring the home side, diverging from pre-market assessments where Estoril held a marginal advantage at 37.6% implied probability compared to Moreirense's 34.6%. No red cards disrupted play, and efficiency stayed in line with expectations amid a low-event second half lacking major adjustments. The match underscored Moreirense's pragmatic approach in neutralizing superior possession.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Moreirense's victory exhibited a 65.4% significant deviation from pre-match structural expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Final result not aligned with pre-market probabilities.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without match data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the game's flow.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards produced no disciplinary distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

M. Dias Torres

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

J. Paulo Silva Macedo

1st Assistant

A. Afonso

4th Official

L. Lopes da Costa

2nd Assistant

Moreirense V. de Albuquerque Botelho da Costa
V. de Albuquerque Botelho da Costa
VS
Estoril I. Cathro
I. Cathro
1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.48
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Famalicão Rank: D
Sporting Braga Rank: L
Arouca Rank: L
Porto Rank: L
Nacional Rank: D
Casa Pia Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Porto Rank: L
Arouca Rank: L
Rio Ave Rank: L
Nacional Rank: W
Casa Pia Rank: D
Sporting CP Rank: L
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 7 - 6
6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Moreirense
34.6%
Draw
27.83%
Away Estoril
37.57%

Movement

Changes since opening
Moreirense
-60.63%
Draw
+23.25%
Estoril
+37.38%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
16.19
18.6
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Moreirense
Estoril
Power Score
16.19
18.6
League Position
8
9
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Moreirense — Opponent-weighted form score
Estoril — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Moreirense Estoril

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Moreirense

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Estoril

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Moreirense ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Estoril
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
30.35
9.47
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
9.47
30.35
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Moreirense +2.02 Efficiency Index
vs
Estoril -2.02 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Moreirense
Estoril
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Moreirense ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Estoril
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Moreirense Estoril
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Moreirense Estoril
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Moreirense
Estoril
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Moreirense
vs
Estoril
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Moreirense Estoril
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Moreirense 0.27
Estoril 0.14
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Moreirense Estoril
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Moreirense 0.00
Estoril 0.02
Moreirense
Estoril
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • MFC had peak pressure around 73'.
  • MFC started the game with stronger pressure.
MFC Pressure EPF Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: MFC reached the top pressure at 73' (73.34).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 17 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Moreirense MFC Home
17 matches
Estoril EPF Away
Match Record
4
Wins
6
7
Draws
7
6
Losses
4
Goals
21
Goals Scored
25
25
Goals Conceded
21
-4
Goal Difference
+4

Data last updated: 2026-04-21T00:02:18+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Pitch
A. Ribeiro Ferreira
Portugal
13 A. Ribeiro Ferreira
F. de Souza Silva
Brazil
70 F. de Souza Silva
K. Monteiro de Souza
Brazil
4 K. Monteiro de Souza
G. Dambi Batista
Portugal
66 G. Dambi Batista
D. Martins Travassos
Portugal
2 D. Martins Travassos
A. Cunha Almeida
Substitution
25 A. Cunha Almeida
M. Stjepanovic
Serbia
8 M. Stjepanovic
L. Costa Araujo
Substitution
Brazil
78 L. Costa Araujo
R. Alonso Martín
Spain
21 R. Alonso Martín
F. Ribeiro Tomé Tavares Bondoso
Substitution
Portugal
10 F. Ribeiro Tomé Tavares Bondoso
A. de Souza Guimarães
Substitution
Brazil
11 A. de Souza Guimarães
Pitch
M. Turk
Slovenia
16 M. Turk
P. Gaspar Amaral
Portugal
24 P. Gaspar Amaral
F. Bacher
Austria
25 F. Bacher
F. Reis Ferreira
Portugal
4 F. Reis Ferreira
P. Salgueiro Costa Pessoa Carvalho
Substitution
Portugal
22 P. Salgueiro Costa Pessoa Carvalho
A. Tsoungui
Belgium
5 A. Tsoungui
Y. Begraoui
Morocco
14 Y. Begraoui
A. Orellana Gómez
Substitution
Spain
6 A. Orellana Gómez
M. da Silva Rocha
Substitution
Portugal
8 M. da Silva Rocha
A. Ramos das Neves
Substitution
Portugal
70 A. Ramos das Neves
L. Fernandes
Substitution
Portugal
21 L. Fernandes

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 20, 2026, 07:15 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal · Round 30 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas
Capacity :
2000
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ , Clear
Referees :
Márcio André Dias Torres
João Paulo Silva Macedo
Ana Afonso
Luís Carlos Lopes da Costa

Statistics

Possession
MFC
46%
EPF
54%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 2
4 Shots 0
41 Dangerous attacks 28
43 Possession 57
5 Corners 1
12 Free kicks 14
0 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

21 Throwins 22
10 Successful Dribbles 4
42 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
1 Assists 0
24 Dribble Attempts 8
5 Goal Kicks 8
13 Successful Headers 13
0 Hit Woodwork 2
4 Substitutions 5
1 Injuries 1
8 Goal Attempts 2
62 Ball Safe 56

Attacking

103 Attacks 106
2 Big Chances Missed 2
1 Counter Attacks 0

Possession

76 Successful Passes Percentage 80
34 Successful Long Passes Percentage 44
297 Successful Passes 420
392 Passes 526
70 Long Passes 59
24 Successful Long Passes 26
9 Key Passes 3

Defensive

48 Duels Won 51
14 Tackles 22
13 Interceptions 10
1 Saves 3

Build-up

7 Total Crosses 10
3 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

14 Fouls 12
1 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Márcio André Dias Torres

Starting XI ▼

13
André Ferreira
André Ferreira Goalkeeper
6.86
2
Travassos
Travassos Defender
6.87
4
Kevyn Monteiro
Kevyn Monteiro Defender
6.61
66
Gilberto Dambi Batista
Gilberto Dambi Batista Defender
6.69
70
Fabiano Josué de Souza Silva
Fabiano Josué de Souza Silva Defender
6.64
8
Mateja Stjepanović
Mateja Stjepanović Midfielder
6.66
10
Francisco Miguel Ribeiro Tomé Tavares Bondoso
Francisco Miguel Ribeiro Tomé Tavares Bondoso Midfielder
6.64
7
Cedric Wilfried Teguia Noubi
Cedric Wilfried Teguia Noubi
Attacker63'
6.62
21
Rodrigo Alonso Martín
Rodrigo Alonso Martín Midfielder
6.65
25
Afonso Assis Cunha Almeida
Afonso Assis Cunha Almeida Midfielder
6.57
99
Yan Lincon Farias de Sousa
Yan Lincon Farias de Sousa
Attacker63'
6.53
78
Landerson
Landerson Midfielder
6.45
71
Leandro Santos
Leandro Santos
Defender79'
6.77
11
Alan de Souza Guimarães
Alan de Souza Guimarães Attacker
6.99
30
Jimi Gower
Jimi Gower
Midfielder90'
6.29
Referee : Márcio André Dias Torres

Starting XI ▼

16
Martin Turk
Martin Turk Goalkeeper
6.75
4
Ferro
Ferro Defender
6.81
22
Pedro Carvalho
Pedro Carvalho Defender
6.48
20
Gonçalo Costa
Gonçalo Costa
Defender79'
6.41
24
Pedro Amaral
Pedro Amaral Defender
6.52
25
Felix Bacher
Felix Bacher Defender
6.78
5
Antef Tsoungui
Antef Tsoungui Midfielder
6.68
6
Jandro Orellana
Jandro Orellana Midfielder
6.69
99
Rafik Guitane
Rafik Guitane
Midfielder53'
6.84
8
Xeka
Xeka Midfielder
6.63
9
Alejandro Marqués
Alejandro Marqués
Attacker73'
6.55
14
Yanis Begraoui
Yanis Begraoui Midfielder
7.09
70
Peixinho
Peixinho Midfielder
6.39
12
João Carvalho
João Carvalho
Midfielder46'
7.22
21
Pizzi
Pizzi Attacker
6.66
10
Jordan Holsgrove
Jordan Holsgrove
Midfielder53'
7.19

Events

2ND-HALF
90+3'
Event
Antef Tsoungui
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Jimi Gower → Alan de Souza Guimarães
9th Substitution
90'
Event
Leandro Santos → Landerson
8th Substitution
79'
79'
Event
Gonçalo Costa → Pedro Carvalho
7th Substitution
73'
Event
Alejandro Marqués → Xeka
6th Substitution
72'
Event
Ferro
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Cedric Wilfried Teguia Noubi → Francisco Miguel Ribeiro Tomé Tavares Bondoso
5th Substitution
63'
Event
Yan Lincon Farias de Sousa → Afonso Assis Cunha Almeida
4th Substitution
63'
53'
Event
Rafik Guitane → Jandro Orellana
2nd Substitution
53'
Event
Jordan Holsgrove → Pizzi
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
João Carvalho → Peixinho
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Alan de Souza Guimarães
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
12'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
João Carvalho of Estoril won a free kick in defense.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Moreirense: Jimi Gower replaces Alan.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 4 minutes of added time.
90
Update Update
Kevyn Monteiro of Moreirense won a free kick in defense.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Alejandro Marqués of Estoril.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Antef Tsoungui of Estoril receives a yellow card.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with Moreirense winning 1-0 against Estoril.
88
Update Update
Alejandro Marqués from Estoril won a free kick in an attacking position.
86
Update Update
André Ferreira from Moreirense won a free kick in defense.
86
Update Update
Foul committed by Alejandro Marqués of Estoril.
85
Update Update
Diogo Travassos commits a handball for Moreirense.
84
Update Update
Alan from Moreirense won a free kick in defense.
84
Update Update
Antef Tsoungui from Estoril committed a foul.
81
Update Update
Yanis Begraoui of Estoril is flagged for offside.
79
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Estoril: Gonçalo Costa replaces Pedro Carvalho.
79
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Moreirense: Leandro Santos replaces Landerson.
75
Update Update
Diogo Travassos from Moreirense won a free kick in defense.
75
Update Update
Landerson from Moreirense won a free kick on the left wing.
75
Update Update
Antef Tsoungui from Estoril committed a foul.
74
Update Update
Pedro Carvalho from Estoril won a free kick in defense.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Estoril: Alejandro Marqués replaces Xeka.
72
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ferro from Estoril receives a yellow card.
72
Corner Corner
Maranhão had a missed chance with a header from inside the six-yard box on the left side that went high. Alan provided the assist with a cross following a corner.
71
Corner Corner
Moreirense wins a corner after Martin Turk concedes.
71
Corner Corner
Moreirense wins a corner after Martin Turk concedes.
71
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Landerson from Moreirense takes a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it's saved in the top left corner by Martin Turk from Estoril. The assist came from Alan.
70
Update Update
Offside called against Estoril. Yanis Begraoui is offside.
69
Update Update
Xeka from Estoril won a free kick in defense.
69
Update Update
Foul committed by Landerson for Moreirense.
68
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to André Ferreira from Moreirense.
67
Update Update
André Ferreira of Moreirense won a free kick in defense.
66
Update Update
Felix Bacher from Estoril won a free kick in defense.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Moreirense: Maranhão replaces Afonso Assis.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Moreirense: Cedric Teguia replaces Kiko Bondoso.
60
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Mateja Stjepanovic from Moreirense attempted a right-footed shot from outside the box but missed to the left. The assist was provided by Afonso Assis.
60
Update Update
Fouled by Felix Bacher of Estoril.
60
Update Update
Alan from Moreirense won a free kick in an attacking position.
59
Attempt Attempt
Rafik Guitane from Estoril hits the bar with a left-footed shot from the right side of the box.
57
Update Update
Jordan Holsgrove of Estoril won a free kick in an attacking position.
57
Update Update
Fouled by Afonso Assis of Moreirense.
55
Update Update
Rodri Alonso fouled by Moreirense.
55
Update Update
Ferro won a free kick in defense against Estoril.
54
Update Update
Fouled by Fabiano Souza of Moreirense.
54
Update Update
Yanis Begraoui from Estoril won a free kick in the defensive area.
53
Update Update
Offside called against Moreirense. Kiko Bondoso is offside.
53
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Estoril: Jordan Holsgrove replaces Pizzi.
53
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Estoril: Rafik Guitane replaces Jandro Orellana.
51
Update Update
Felix Bacher of Estoril won a free kick in defense.
51
Update Update
Rodri Alonso fouled by Moreirense.
50
Update Update
Jandro Orellana from Estoril commits a foul.
50
Update Update
Fabiano Souza from Moreirense won a free kick in defense.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 1 minute of added time.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Moreirense leading Estoril 1-0.
45
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Xeka from Estoril.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Estoril: João Carvalho replaces Peixinho.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at Moreirense 1, Estoril 0.
44
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Estoril after a concession by Gilberto Batista.
44
Update Update
Foul committed by Felix Bacher of Estoril.
42
Attempt Attempt
Yanis Begraoui's right-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked. The assist came from Xeka, who headed the ball.
38
Update Update
Diogo Travassos from Moreirense won a free kick in defense.
38
Update Update
Antef Tsoungui from Estoril committed a foul.
34
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Yanis Begraoui from Estoril.
32
Attempt Attempt
Shot blocked. Landerson from Moreirense has his left-footed shot from the left side of the box blocked.
29
Attempt Attempt
Pedro Carvalho from Estoril hits the left post with a right-footed shot from the right side of the box, assisted by Peixinho.
24
Attempt Attempt
Pedro Carvalho from Estoril hits the woodwork with a right-footed shot from the right side of the box.
23
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Xeka from Estoril.
22
Corner Corner
Moreirense wins a corner after Martin Turk concedes.
22
Corner Corner
Rodri Alonso from Moreirense missed a chance with a right-footed shot from outside the box after a corner.
22
Update Update
Xeka from Estoril won a free kick in defense.
21
Update Update
Rodri Alonso from Moreirense won a free kick in an attacking position.
21
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Rodri Alonso from Moreirense takes a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but it's saved in the left corner by Martin Turk from Estoril.
20
Update Update
Antef Tsoungui from Estoril committed a foul.
19
Corner Corner
Moreirense wins a corner after Antef Tsoungui concedes.
18
Corner Corner
Moreirense wins a corner after Antef Tsoungui concedes.
16
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Moreirense after a concession by Pedro Amaral.
16
Corner Corner
Kevyn Monteiro of Moreirense misses a chance, heading the ball from the center of the box just wide of the goal. The assist came from Diogo Travassos, who delivered a cross following a corner.
15
Update Update
Kevyn Monteiro from Moreirense won a free kick in the attacking area.
14
Update Update
Foul committed by Diogo Travassos of Moreirense.
14
Update Update
Peixinho from Estoril won a free kick in the attacking area.
12
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Moreirense leads 1-0 against Estoril. Alan scores for Moreirense with a right-footed shot from outside the box into the left corner, assisted by Afonso Assis.
11
Update Update
Kiko Bondoso from Moreirense committed a foul.
11
Update Update
Pedro Amaral from Estoril won a free kick in the defensive area.
10
Update Update
Xeka from Estoril won a free kick in the defensive area.
8
Update Update
Afonso Assis from Moreirense misses a chance, shooting with his left foot from outside the box, but the ball goes high. The assist was made by Mateja Stjepanovic.
2
Update Update
Offside called against Estoril. Yanis Begraoui is offside.
2
Update Update
Afonso Assis of Moreirense commits a handball.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Moreirense exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

Moreirense vs Estoril preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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