Moreirense vs Arouca Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal

Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas Sat, 21 Mar - 3:30 PM

Liga Portugal

Moreirense MFC

Arouca FCA

Full Time Sat, 21 Mar 3:30 PM

Round 27 Regular Season

Miguel Puche - 67'

CONTEXT

The match between Moreirense and Arouca has officially finished, with the visitors claiming a 1-0 victory at full-time. After a tightly contested first half that ended scoreless, Arouca managed to find the sole breakthrough in the second period to secure an important away win. Pre-match expectations suggested a highly balanced affair. The market priced a Moreirense win at 35.1%, a draw at 29.3%, and an Arouca victory at a narrow favorite of 35.6%. Although Moreirense was rated as the stronger team overall, the eventual result was fully market-aligned. Taking all three points represented a significant deviation for Arouca, successfully capitalizing on their slight pre-match betting edge. The underlying metrics heavily supported the final scoreline, as the outcome was completely consistent with the expected goals. Arouca generated a superior 1.6 xG compared to Moreirense's relatively quiet 0.61 xG. The visitors also controlled a slight majority of the ball, holding 51% possession against the hosts' 49%. Scoring outputs remained in line with standard efficiency shifts, and the match concluded conventionally without any red cards impacting the flow of play.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Arouca showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
xG alignment: The final outcome was consistent with expected goal differential.
Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
xG expectations: Aligned with xG expectations (Classify).
Event impact: No major event distortion.
Red card distortion: None.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

No referee statistics available.

V. de Albuquerque Botelho da Costa

V. Freire De Seabra

1.1

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

0.9

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

8 - 2 - 3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Moreirense

35.08%

Draw

29.32%

Arouca

35.61%

Team Power Ranking

67.34

64.67

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Moreirense

Arouca

Power Score

67.34

64.67

League Position

Global Rank

266

335

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Moreirense — Opponent-weighted form score

Arouca — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Moreirense Arouca

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Moreirense

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Arouca

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Moreirense ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Arouca

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

17.76

30.10

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

30.10

17.76

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Moreirense -1.21 Efficiency Index

Arouca +1.21 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Moreirense

Arouca

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Moreirense

Arouca

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Moreirense Arouca

Set-piece xG Share

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

+0.00 vs +0.00

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Moreirense Arouca

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

Moreirense

Arouca

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.

Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 13 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Moreirense MFC Home

13 matches

Arouca FCA Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

Goal Difference

-4

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:22:33+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3

Match Formation 4-2-3-1

13 A. Ribeiro Ferreira

71 L. Sousa Santos

66 G. Dambi Batista

26 (C) J. de Brito Gonzaga

27 F. Teixeira Domingues

23 N. John

8 M. Stjepanovic

11 A. de Souza Guimarães

2 D. Martins Travassos

9 L. Silva Semedo

10 F. Ribeiro Tomé Tavares Bondoso

12 I. De Arruabarrena Fernández

25 B. Kuipers

3 J. Fontán Mondragón

15 J. Sánchez de Felipe

28 (C) T. Sousa Esgaio

21 T. Fukui

22 E. van Ee

7 N. Djouahra

14 H. Lee

10 P. Gozalbez Gilabert

23 D. Nandín Berrutti

General Information

Date & Time :

Mar 21, 2026, 03:30 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal · Round 27 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas

Capacity :

2000

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

João António Ferreira Gonçalves

Miguel Ângelo da Silva Martins

Pedro Ribeiro

Diogo Araújo

Statistics

Possession

MFC

49%

FCA

51%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1

1 Big Chances Created 3

3 Shots 9

34 Dangerous attacks 27

49 Possession 51

3 Corners 7

12 Free kicks 11

1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

12 Goal Kicks 5

22 Throwins 19

14 Successful Headers 13

4 Injuries 3

10 Dribble Attempts 16

5 Goal Attempts 10

65 Ball Safe 64

50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 44

5 Successful Dribbles 7

1 Hit Woodwork 0

4 Substitutions 5

Attacking

68 Attacks 73

1 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

427 Passes 441

48 Long Passes 52

359 Successful Passes 371

84 Successful Passes Percentage 84

5 Key Passes 10

22 Successful Long Passes 27

46 Successful Long Passes Percentage 52

Defensive

7 Interceptions 5

1 Saves 2

12 Tackles 10

Build-up

22 Total Crosses 24

4 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

0 Offsides 3

11 Fouls 12

Lineup

Referee : João António Ferreira Gonçalves

Manager ▼

V. de Albuquerque Botelho da Costa Coach

Starting XI ▼

André Ferreira Goalkeeper

5.77

Jóbson de Brito Gonzaga (C) Defender

6.44

Francisco Miguel Teixeira Domingues Defender

6.79

Landerson

Attacker58'

6.77

Gilberto Dambi Batista Defender

6.96

Leandro Santos Defender

6.69

Kevyn Monteiro

Defender75'

6.57

Mateja Stjepanović Midfielder

6.65

Alan de Souza Guimarães Midfielder

6.94

Jimi Gower

Midfielder58'

6.41

Nile John Midfielder

6.92

Rodrigo Alonso Martín

Midfielder82'

6.5

Travassos Attacker

6.71

Luís Semedo Attacker

6.2

Francisco Miguel Ribeiro Tomé Tavares Bondoso Attacker

6.63

Substitutes ▼

Landerson

Attacker58'

6.77

Jimi Gower

Midfielder58'

6.41

Kevyn Monteiro

Defender75'

6.57

Rodrigo Alonso Martín

Midfielder82'

6.5

Bench ▼

Michael Simões Domingues Goalkeeper

Caio Gobbo Secco Goalkeeper

Miguel Andrade Silva Midfielder

Afonso Assis Cunha Almeida Midfielder

Referee : João António Ferreira Gonçalves

Manager ▼

V. Freire De Seabra Coach

Starting XI ▼

Ignacio de Arruabarrena Goalkeeper

6.82

José Fontán Defender

7.77

Javi Sánchez Defender

6.98

Bas Kuipers Defender

6.36

Amadou Dante

Defender86'

Tiago Esgaio (C) Defender

6.98

Naïs Djouahra Midfielder

6.95

Pablo Gozálbez Midfielder

6.96

Brian Mansilla

Attacker73'

6.32

Hyun-ju Lee Midfielder

6.83

Pedro Santos

Midfielder86'

Taichi Fukui Midfielder

7.03

Yellu Santiago

Midfielder86'

Espen van Ee Midfielder

6.67

Dylan Nandín Attacker

6.43

Miguel Puche

Attacker53'

7.57

Substitutes ▼

Miguel Puche

Attacker53'

7.57

Brian Mansilla

Attacker73'

6.32

Yellu Santiago

Midfielder86'

Pedro Santos

Midfielder86'

Amadou Dante

Defender86'

Bench ▼

João Valido Goalkeeper

Matías Rocha Defender

Diogo Monteiro Defender

Fally Mayulu Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF

86'

Yellu Santiago →

8th Substitution

86'

Pedro Santos →

9th Substitution

86'

Amadou Dante →

7th Substitution

Rodrigo Alonso Martín →

6th Substitution

82'

Kevyn Monteiro →

5th Substitution

75'

73'

Brian Mansilla →

4th Substitution

70'

Pablo Gozálbez

Foul / 3rd Yellowcard

67'

Miguel Puche

Header / 1st Goal

Landerson →

3rd Substitution

58'

Jimi Gower →

2nd Substitution

58'

53'

Miguel Puche →

1st Substitution

1ST-HALF

Jóbson de Brito Gonzaga

Foul / 2nd Yellowcard

39'

34'

Dylan Nandín

Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

Update

Luís Semedo from Moreirense has been awarded a free kick in an attacking position.

Update

The fourth official has indicated that there will be 8 minutes of stoppage time.

Update

Pedro Santos from Arouca has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.

Update

The second half has concluded, with Moreirense trailing Arouca 1-0.

Attempt

Landerson from Moreirense strikes the left post with a right-footed shot taken from the center of the box, following a cross from Rodri Alonso.

Update

Diogo Travassos from Moreirense committed a foul.

Update

The pause has ended. The teams are set to resume play.

Update

Match is currently paused due to an injury to José Fontán from Arouca.

Attempt

The attempt is thwarted. Diogo Travassos from Moreirense fires a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked.

Update

Yellu Santiago from Arouca committed a foul.

Update

Fouled by Kevyn Monteiro of Moreirense.

Update

Miguel Puche from Arouca has been awarded a free kick in an attacking position.

Substitution

Substitution for Arouca: Yellu Santiago is coming off, and Taichi Fukui is entering the match.

Update

Match is currently on hold due to an injury to Mateja Stjepanovic from Moreirense.

Substitution

Substitution for Arouca: Pedro Santos comes on to replace Lee Hyun-Ju, who is leaving the field due to an injury.

Update

The pause has concluded. They are set to resume play.

Update

Match is currently paused due to an injury to Lee Hyun-Ju from Arouca.

Update

Jimi Gower from Moreirense has been awarded a free kick on the right side of the field.

Update

Fouled by Bas Kuipers - Arouca. nnRephrased: Bas Kuipers from Arouca committed a foul.

Substitution

Substitution for Moreirense: Rodri Alonso is coming off, and Nile John is taking his place.

Update

Offside call against Arouca. Miguel Puche has been caught in an offside position.

Update

Lee Hyun-Ju from Arouca has been awarded a free kick in an attacking position.

Update

Jimi Gower from Moreirense committed a foul.

Update

Offside call against Arouca. Naïs Djouahra has been flagged for being offside.

Update

The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.

Update

Offside call against Arouca. Naïs Djouahra has been flagged for being offside.

Update

The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.

Substitution

Substitution for Arouca: Brian Mansilla replaces Pablo Gozálbez.

Update

The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.

Update

Match is currently on hold due to an injury to Leandro Santos from Moreirense.

Yellow Card Important

Pablo Gozálbez from Arouca has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.

Corner

Corner kick awarded to Arouca after a deflection off Gilberto Batista.

Update

Opportunity wasted! Maracás from Moreirense heads the ball from close range but sends it over the bar. The cross was delivered by Nile John.

GOAL! Important

Pablo Gozálbez from Arouca committed a foul.

Update

Diogo Travassos from Moreirense has earned a free kick in the offensive zone.

Update

Taichi Fukui committed a foul against Arouca.

Update

Nile John from Moreirense has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.

Attempt

The attempt is thwarted. Naïs Djouahra from Arouca takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Miguel Puche.

Attempt

Goal! Moreirense 0, Arouca 1. Miguel Puche from Arouca scores with a close-range shot aimed at the upper part of the net.

Attempt

A fresh offensive move is underway. Nile John from Moreirense takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's successfully stopped.

Update

Landerson from Moreirense committed a foul.

Update

Luís Semedo from Moreirense has been awarded a free kick in the attacking zone.

Update

Foul committed by José Fontán from Arouca.

Update

Pablo Gozálbez from Arouca has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.

Substitution

Substitution for Moreirense: Jimi Gower comes on to replace Alan due to an injury.

Update

The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.

Substitution

Substitution for Moreirense: Landerson comes on to replace Kiko.

Attempt

Missed opportunity! Tiago Esgaio from Arouca attempted a header from the center of the penalty area but sent it wide to the left. The cross was delivered by Naïs Djouahra.

Update

Match is currently on hold due to an injury to Alan from Moreirense.

Update

Gilberto Batista from Moreirense committed a foul.

Update

Lee Hyun-Ju from Arouca was awarded a free kick on the left side of the field.

Update

Pablo Gozálbez from Arouca committed a foul.

Update

The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.

Update

Kiko from Moreirense has been awarded a free kick on the left side of the pitch.

Substitution

Substitution for Arouca: Miguel Puche comes on to replace Dylan Nandín due to an injury.

Update

Match halted due to an injury to Dylan Nandín from Arouca.

Update

Espen van Ee from Arouca committed a foul.

Update

Nile John from Moreirense has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.

Update

The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.

Update

Match is currently paused due to an injury to a Maracás player during the Moreirense game.

Attempt

A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Dylan Nandín from Arouca takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but André Ferreira of Moreirense makes a great save, diving to his right to deny the attempt.

Attempt

Missed opportunity! Naïs Djouahra from Arouca takes a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it goes just wide.

Corner

Corner awarded to Arouca after André Ferreira allowed the ball to go out.

Update

The first half has concluded with the score tied at Moreirense 0, Arouca 0.

Attempt

Opportunity wasted! Bas Kuipers from Arouca took a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it sailed high and wide to the right. The assist came from Tiago Esgaio.

Update

The fourth official has indicated that there will be three minutes of stoppage time.

Update

Kiko from Moreirense has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.

Update

The first half has concluded with the score tied at Moreirense 0, Arouca 0.

Update

Kiko from Moreirense was awarded a free kick on the left side of the field.

Update

Lee Hyun-Ju from Arouca commits a handball.

Update

Opportunity wasted. José Fontán from Arouca attempted a header from the center of the box but failed to find the target. The cross was delivered by Tiago Esgaio.

Corner

Corner awarded to Arouca after a defensive play by Gilberto Batista.

Attempt

The attempt is thwarted. Naïs Djouahra from Arouca takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Pablo Gozálbez.

Attempt

The attempt is thwarted. Taichi Fukui of Arouca takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from José Fontán.

Corner

Corner kick awarded to Arouca after Diogo Travassos allowed the ball to go out.

Update

The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.

Corner

Corner kick awarded to Arouca after Maracás allowed the ball to go out.

Update

Match is currently on hold due to an injury to Pablo Gozálbez from Arouca.

Update

Maracás committed a foul against Moreirense.

Yellow Card Important

Maracás - Moreirense has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.

Update

Pablo Gozálbez from Arouca has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.

Corner

Corner awarded to Moreirense after Dylan Nandín allowed the ball to go out.

Update

Leandro Santos from Moreirense committed a foul.

Update

Lee Hyun-Ju from Arouca has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.

Update

The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.

Update

Match is currently on hold due to an injury to Kiko from Moreirense.

Update

Gilberto Batista from Moreirense has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.

Yellow Card Important

Dylan Nandín from Arouca has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.

Update

Dylan Nandín from Arouca committed a foul.

Attempt

Opportunity wasted. José Fontán from Arouca attempted a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area.

Corner

Missed opportunity! Gilberto Batista from Moreirense attempted a header from the center of the box but failed to convert. The chance was set up by Alan, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.

Corner

Corner kick awarded to Moreirense after Bas Kuipers allowed the ball to go out.

Update

Opportunity squandered. Dylan Nandín from Arouca attempted a header from the middle of the penalty area but sent it over the bar. The assist came from Pablo Gozálbez, who delivered a cross after a quick counterattack.

Update

Mateja Stjepanovic from Moreirense committed a foul.

Update

Dylan Nandín from Arouca earned a free kick in the defensive area.

Attempt

Opportunity squandered. Dylan Nandín from Arouca took a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area.

Corner

Corner kick awarded to Arouca after Maracás allowed the ball to go out.

Attempt

The attempt is thwarted. Lee Hyun-Ju from Arouca takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Espen van Ee.

Corner

Corner awarded to Moreirense after Pablo Gozálbez allowed the ball to go out.

Update

Lee Hyun-Ju from Arouca earned a free kick in the defensive zone.

Update

Nile John committed a foul on a Moreirense player.

Attempt

A shot is deflected. Mateja Stjepanovic from Moreirense attempts a right-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Luís Semedo.

Update

Espen van Ee from Arouca committed a foul.

Update

Nile John from Moreirense has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.

Update

Espen van Ee from Arouca committed a foul.

Update

Alan - Moreirense has been awarded a free kick in their defensive zone.

Attempt

Missed opportunity! Tiago Esgaio from Arouca takes a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it sails over the bar.

Update

Nile John committed a foul on a Moreirense player.

Update

Bas Kuipers from Arouca has been awarded a free kick in an attacking position.

Update

Diogo Travassos from Moreirense committed a foul.

Corner

Corner kick awarded to Arouca after Maracás allowed the ball to go out of play.

Update

Lee Hyun-Ju from Arouca has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.

Update

Offside call against Arouca. Bas Kuipers has been flagged for being in an offside position.

Attempt

A fresh offensive move unfolds as Mateja Stjepanovic from Moreirense takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area. However, Ignacio de Arruabarrena, the goalkeeper for Arouca, makes a solid save right in the middle of the goal.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Arouca exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Moreirense vs Arouca preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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STANDINGS

CONTEXT

TL;DR

Quality vs Volume

Open Play vs Set Play

Expected Points

Win Probabilities

Team Power Ranking

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Moreirense

Arouca

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

STARTING XI

General Information

Next Match

Statistics

Top Statistics

Match Overview

Attacking

Possession

Defensive

Build-up

Discipline

Lineup

Manager ▼

Starting XI ▼

Substitutes ▼

Bench ▼

Manager ▼

Starting XI ▼

Substitutes ▼

Bench ▼

Events

Match Commentary

CONCLUSION

How We Build This Analysis

Explore League Previews

Moreirense vs Arouca Prediction, Preview and Stats

STANDINGS

CONTEXT

TL;DR

Quality vs Volume

Open Play vs Set Play

Expected Points

Win Probabilities

Team Power Ranking

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Moreirense

Arouca

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

STARTING XI

General Information

Next Match

Statistics

Top Statistics

Match Overview

Attacking

Possession

Defensive

Build-up

Discipline

Lineup

Manager ▼

Starting XI ▼

Substitutes ▼

Bench ▼

Manager ▼

Starting XI ▼

Substitutes ▼

Bench ▼

Events

Match Commentary

CONCLUSION

How We Build This Analysis

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