Monza vs Modena Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
U-Power Stadium Fri, 24 Apr - 5:00 PM
Serie B
Monza MON
1 Winner 0
Modena MOD
Full Time Fri, 24 Apr 5:00 PM
Round 36 Regular Season
Samuele Birindelli - 27'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Monza clinched a gritty 1-0 home win against Modena, scoring the decisive goal in the first half to lead 1-0 at the break. Despite holding just 41% possession, the hosts showcased clinical finishing and resolute defending to repel Modena's second-half pressure. The visitors dominated the ball with 59% but failed to muster meaningful threats, highlighting Monza's superior organization and game management. As the pre-designated stronger team, Monza's triumph came with minimal structural deviation, reflecting their expected dominance in a tightly contested Serie B encounter. No red cards or major disruptions marred the flow, allowing the result to unfold naturally from early momentum. This victory bolsters Monza's promotion push, underlining their ability to grind out results even when out-possessed.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match showed minimal structural deviation of 5.8% in Monza's favor.
  • Efficiency shift: Both teams' efficiencies remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable, preventing alignment evaluation.
  • Market alignment: Result perfectly aligned with pre-market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG figures absent, leaving expectations unquantified.
  • Event impact: No key events or adjustments impacted the game's structure.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion to match flow.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

F. Dionisi

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

F. Bercigli

1st Assistant

Francesco Burlando

4th Official

A. Bianchini

2nd Assistant

Monza P. Bianco
P. Bianco
VS
Modena A. Sottil
A. Sottil
2.15
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.26
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sampdoria Rank: W
Bari 1908 Rank: W
Catanzaro Rank: D
Venezia Rank: D
Reggiana Rank: D
Palermo Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Frosinone Rank: L
Catanzaro Rank: D
Südtirol Rank: D
Bari 1908 Rank: L
Mantova Rank: W
Spezia Rank: W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 1 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Monza
94.16%
Draw
5.65%
Away Modena
0.19%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
35.46
22.64
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Monza
Modena
Power Score
35.46
22.64
League Position
2
6
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Monza — Opponent-weighted form score
Modena — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Monza Modena

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Monza

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Modena

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Monza ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Modena
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
27.20
28.81
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
28.81
27.20
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Monza -0.15 Efficiency Index
vs
Modena +0.15 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Monza
Modena
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Monza ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Modena
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Monza Modena
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Monza Modena
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Monza
Modena
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Monza
vs
Modena
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Monza Modena
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Monza 0.43
Modena 0.38
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Monza Modena
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Monza 0.00
Modena 0.04
Monza
Modena
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • MOD had peak pressure around 1'.
  • MOD started the game with stronger pressure.
MON Pressure MOD Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: MOD reached the top pressure at 1' (84.87).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 2 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Monza MON Home
2 matches
Modena MOD Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
1
Goals
2
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
2
+1
Goal Difference
-1

Data last updated: 2026-04-25T00:01:15+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
D. Thiam
Senegal
20 D. Thiam
L. Ravanelli
Italy
13 L. Ravanelli
F. Delli Carri
Italy
15 F. Delli Carri
A. Carboni
Italy
44 A. Carboni
A. Bakoune
Italy
24 A. Bakoune
P. Mba Obiang Avomo
Equatorial Guinea
14 P. Mba Obiang Avomo
M. Pessina
Italy
32 M. Pessina
S. Birindelli
Italy
19 S. Birindelli
A. Colpani
Substitution
Italy
28 A. Colpani
P. Cutrone
Substitution
Italy
10 P. Cutrone
A. Petagna
Substitution
Italy
37 A. Petagna
Pitch
M. Pezzolato
Italy
22 M. Pezzolato
A. Dellavalle
Italy
25 A. Dellavalle
S. Nador
Togo
19 S. Nador
D. Tonoli
Substitution
Italy
77 D. Tonoli
L. Zanimacchia
Substitution
Italy
98 L. Zanimacchia
S. Wiafe
Substitution
71 S. Wiafe
F. Gerli
Italy
16 F. Gerli
Y. Massolin
France
17 Y. Massolin
G. Beyuku Bowutankoyi
Substitution
2 G. Beyuku Bowutankoyi
G. Ambrosino
Substitution
Italy
10 G. Ambrosino
M. De Luca
Italy
99 M. De Luca

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 24, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 36 · Regular Season
Stadium :
U-Power Stadium
Capacity :
18568
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Federico Dionisi
Filippo Bercigli
Francesco Burlando
Andrea Bianchini

Statistics

Possession
MON
43%
MOD
57%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
1 Big Chances Created 2
3 Shots 6
23 Dangerous attacks 40
41 Possession 59
5 Corners 4
20 Free kicks 8
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

3 Substitutions 5
22 Throwins 13
38 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33
3 Successful Dribbles 5
6 Goal Kicks 8
72 Ball Safe 64
9 Goal Attempts 11
8 Dribble Attempts 15
1 Injuries 0

Attacking

59 Attacks 69
1 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

344 Passes 493
270 Successful Passes 425
46 Long Passes 43
28 Successful Long Passes Percentage 53
78 Successful Passes Percentage 86
13 Successful Long Passes 23
7 Key Passes 11

Defensive

17 Tackles 17
10 Interceptions 4
46 Duels Won 43
5 Saves 3

Build-up

17 Total Crosses 29
4 Accurate Crosses 9

Discipline

8 Fouls 20
0 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Federico Dionisi

Starting XI ▼

20
Demba Thiam
Demba Thiam Goalkeeper
7.03
13
Luca Ravanelli
Luca Ravanelli Defender
7.07
15
Filippo Delli Carri
Filippo Delli Carri Defender
6.85
44
Andrea Carboni
Andrea Carboni Defender
6.94
14
Pedro Obiang
Pedro Obiang Midfielder
6.94
19
Samuele Birindelli
Samuele Birindelli Midfielder
6.96
24
Adam Bakoune
Adam Bakoune Midfielder
6.67
32
Matteo Pessina
Matteo Pessina Midfielder
7.13
10
Patrick Cutrone
Patrick Cutrone Attacker
6.87
47
Dany Mota
Dany Mota
Attacker70'
6.87
28
Andrea Colpani
Andrea Colpani Attacker
7.08
8
Hernani
Hernani
Midfielder56'
7.09
37
Andrea Petagna
Andrea Petagna Attacker
6.92
30
Giuseppe Caso
Giuseppe Caso
Midfielder56'
6.75
Referee : Federico Dionisi

Starting XI ▼

22
Michele Pezzolato
Michele Pezzolato Goalkeeper
7.2
19
Steven Nador
Steven Nador Defender
6.96
25
Alessandro Dellavalle
Alessandro Dellavalle Defender
6.92
77
Daniel Tonoli
Daniel Tonoli Defender
7.13
20
Bryant Nieling
Bryant Nieling
Defender46'
6.94
2
Gady Beyuku
Gady Beyuku Midfielder
6.58
7
Francesco Zampano
Francesco Zampano
Defender66'
6.77
16
Fabio Gerli
Fabio Gerli Midfielder
6.86
17
Yanis Massolin
Yanis Massolin Midfielder
6.95
71
Samuel Wiafe
Samuel Wiafe Midfielder
6.62
18
Niklas Pyyhtiä
Niklas Pyyhtiä
Midfielder57'
6.78
98
Luca Zanimacchia
Luca Zanimacchia Midfielder
6.94
29
Matteo Cotali
Matteo Cotali
Defender78'
6.67
10
Giuseppe Ambrosino
Giuseppe Ambrosino Attacker
6.95
11
Pedro Mendes
Pedro Mendes
Attacker66'
6.73
99
Manuel De Luca
Manuel De Luca Attacker
6.83

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Adam Bakoune
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
90'
85'
Event
Bryant Nieling
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
78'
Event
Matteo Cotali → Luca Zanimacchia
8th Substitution
Event
Dany Mota → Patrick Cutrone
7th Substitution
70'
66'
Event
Pedro Mendes → Giuseppe Ambrosino
5th Substitution
66'
Event
Francesco Zampano → Gady Beyuku
6th Substitution
57'
Event
Niklas Pyyhtiä → Samuel Wiafe
4th Substitution
Event
Giuseppe Caso → Andrea Petagna
2nd Substitution
56'
Event
Hernani → Andrea Colpani
3rd Substitution
56'
46'
Event
Bryant Nieling → Daniel Tonoli
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
45+2'
Event
Daniel Tonoli
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Samuele Birindelli
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
27'

CONCLUSION

Monza's 1-0 victory over Modena exemplifies pragmatic football, where quality trumped quantity in possession. By netting early and maintaining defensive solidity, they neutralized a ball-dominant opponent, securing three vital points. This outcome reinforces Monza's credentials as the stronger side, with the minimal deviation signaling a performance true to form. Without xG insights or disruptive incidents, the game served as a testament to tactical discipline. Looking ahead, Monza's efficiency in low-scoring wins positions them favorably in the promotion race, while Modena must sharpen their conversion to challenge top teams.

Monza vs Modena preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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