Monza vs Juve Stabia Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
U-Power Stadium Tue, 19 May - 6:00 PM
Serie B
Monza MON
2 Winner 1
Juve Stabia JUV
Full Time Tue, 19 May 6:00 PM
Semi Finals Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 4 - 3
Patrick Cutrone - 90+6', 85'
Goal
|
Goal
Rareș Burnete - 90'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Monza 2–1 Juve Stabia. The result saw Monza take the points. Monza showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 45%–55%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Monza produced a significant deviation from pre-match expectations to claim the 2-1 win.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiency remained in line with established patterns across both halves.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals figures were unavailable so alignment with the 2-1 score could not be assessed.
  • Market alignment: The final result did not align with pre-match market projections for the fixture.
  • xG expectations: No expected goals data was recorded for either Monza or Juve Stabia.
  • Event impact: The second half adjustments proved decisive in Monza overcoming the 0-0 halftime score.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred so the 2-1 scoreline developed without any numerical imbalance.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

M. Mariani

Italy 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

League averages

Serie B Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 27.64
Yellow cards / match 4.09
Red cards / match 0.29
Penalties / match 0.28
Monza P. Bianco
P. Bianco
VS
Juve Stabia I. Abate
I. Abate
1.89
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.31
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Juve Stabia Rank: 57 D
Empoli Rank: 55 D
Mantova Rank: 54 L
Modena Rank: 56 W
Sampdoria Rank: 53 W
Bari 1908 Rank: 51 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Monza Rank: 66 D
Modena Rank: 57 W
Südtirol Rank: 51 D
Frosinone Rank: 67 L
Pescara Rank: 48 D
Catanzaro Rank: 62 D
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 2 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Monza
4.44%
Draw
92.34%
Away Juve Stabia
3.22%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
60.23
56.93
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Monza
Juve Stabia
Power Score
60.23
56.93
League Position
3
7
Global Rank
297
578

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Monza — Opponent-weighted form score
Juve Stabia — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Monza Juve Stabia

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Monza

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Juve Stabia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Monza ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Juve Stabia
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
36.44
14.55
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
14.55
36.44
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Monza +2.11 Efficiency Index
vs
Juve Stabia -2.11 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Monza
Juve Stabia
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Monza ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Juve Stabia
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Monza Juve Stabia
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Monza Juve Stabia
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Monza
Juve Stabia
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Monza
vs
Juve Stabia
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Monza Juve Stabia
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Monza 0.29
Juve Stabia 0.15
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Monza Juve Stabia
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Monza 0.03
Juve Stabia 0.04
Monza
Juve Stabia
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • MON had peak pressure around 36'.
  • MON started the game with stronger pressure.
MON Pressure JUV Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: MON reached the top pressure at 36' (71.07).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Monza MON Home
3 matches
Juve Stabia JUV Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
2
Draws
2
0
Losses
1
Goals
6
Goals Scored
5
5
Goals Conceded
6
+1
Goal Difference
-1

Data last updated: 2026-05-20T00:03:26+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 3-5-1-1
Pitch
D. Thiam
Senegal
20 D. Thiam
S. Birindelli
Italy
19 S. Birindelli
F. Delli Carri
Substitution
Italy
15 F. Delli Carri
A. Carboni
Italy
44 A. Carboni
A. Bakoune
Italy
24 A. Bakoune
L. Colombo
Italy
21 L. Colombo
M. Pessina
Italy
32 M. Pessina
P. Dentello Azzi
Substitution
Brazil
7 P. Dentello Azzi
A. Colpani
Substitution
Italy
28 A. Colpani
D. Carvalho
Substitution
Portugal
47 D. Carvalho
A. Petagna
Substitution
Italy
37 A. Petagna
Pitch
A. Confente
Italy
1 A. Confente
C. Dalle Mura
Substitution
Italy
14 C. Dalle Mura
A. Giorgini
Italy
33 A. Giorgini
M. Bellich
Italy
6 M. Bellich
A. Cacciamani
77 A. Cacciamani
O. Correia
France
29 O. Correia
G. Leone
Substitution
Italy
55 G. Leone
N. Mosti
Substitution
Italy
98 N. Mosti
L. Carissoni
Substitution
Italy
24 L. Carissoni
F. Maistro
Substitution
Italy
37 F. Maistro
A. Okoro
Nigeria
90 A. Okoro

General Information

Date & Time :
May 19, 2026, 06:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Semi Finals · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 4 - 3
Stadium :
U-Power Stadium
Capacity :
18568
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Maurizio Mariani

Statistics

Possession
MON
46%
JUV
54%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 0
6 Shots 2
48 Dangerous attacks 40
45 Possession 55
6 Corners 2
15 Free kicks 10
3 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

57 Ball Safe 73
10 Goal Attempts 5
5 Substitutions 5
4 Successful Dribbles 7
15 Throwins 20
44 Successful Dribbles Percentage 47
9 Dribble Attempts 15
5 Goal Kicks 8

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 0
87 Attacks 112

Possession

41 Long Passes 60
44 Successful Long Passes Percentage 37
18 Successful Long Passes 22
363 Successful Passes 458
446 Passes 552
81 Successful Passes Percentage 83
13 Key Passes 4

Defensive

9 Interceptions 7
56 Duels Won 57
13 Tackles 14
0 Saves 4

Build-up

15 Total Crosses 12
6 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

10 Fouls 15
2 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Maurizio Mariani

Starting XI ▼

20
Demba Thiam
Demba Thiam Goalkeeper
15
Filippo Delli Carri
Filippo Delli Carri Defender
3
Lorenzo Lucchesi
Lorenzo Lucchesi
Defender56'
19
Samuele Birindelli
Samuele Birindelli Defender
44
Andrea Carboni
Andrea Carboni Defender
7
Paulo Daniel Dentello Azzi
Paulo Daniel Dentello Azzi Midfielder
13
Luca Ravanelli
Luca Ravanelli
Defender84'
21
Leonardo Colombo
Leonardo Colombo Midfielder
24
Adam Bakoune
Adam Bakoune Midfielder
32
Matteo Pessina
Matteo Pessina Midfielder
28
Andrea Colpani
Andrea Colpani Attacker
8
Hernani
Hernani
Midfielder57'
37
Andrea Petagna
Andrea Petagna Attacker
10
Patrick Cutrone
Patrick Cutrone
Attacker57'
2
47
Dany Mota
Dany Mota Attacker
25
Agustín Álvarez
Agustín Álvarez
Attacker77'
Referee : Maurizio Mariani

Starting XI ▼

1
Alessandro Confente
Alessandro Confente Goalkeeper
6
Marco Bellich
Marco Bellich Defender
14
Christian Dalle Mura
Christian Dalle Mura Defender
9
Alessandro Gabrielloni
Alessandro Gabrielloni
Attacker81'
33
Andrea Giorgini
Andrea Giorgini Defender
24
Lorenzo Carissoni
Lorenzo Carissoni Midfielder
10
Christian Pierobon
Christian Pierobon
Midfielder65'
29
Omar Correia
Omar Correia Midfielder
55
Giuseppe Leone
Giuseppe Leone Midfielder
2
Manuel Ricciardi
Manuel Ricciardi
Midfielder64'
77
Alessio Cacciamani
Alessio Cacciamani Midfielder
98
Nicola Mosti
Nicola Mosti Midfielder
7
Rareș Burnete
Rareș Burnete
Attacker46'
37
Fabio Maistro
Fabio Maistro Attacker
8
Kevin Zeroli
Kevin Zeroli
Midfielder46'
90
Alvin Okoro
Alvin Okoro Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Patrick Cutrone
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
90+6'
90+3'
Event
Marco Bellich
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
90'
Event
Rareș Burnete
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
87'
Event
Omar Correia
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Patrick Cutrone
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
85'
Event
Luca Ravanelli → Paulo Daniel Dentello Azzi
10th Substitution
84'
81'
Event
Alessandro Gabrielloni → Christian Dalle Mura
9th Substitution
80'
Event
Rareș Burnete
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Agustín Álvarez → Dany Mota
8th Substitution
77'
Event
Demba Thiam
Time wasting / 3rd Yellowcard
71'
65'
Event
Christian Pierobon → Lorenzo Carissoni
7th Substitution
64'
Event
Manuel Ricciardi → Giuseppe Leone
6th Substitution
Event
Hernani → Andrea Colpani
5th Substitution
57'
Event
Patrick Cutrone → Andrea Petagna
4th Substitution
57'
Event
Lorenzo Lucchesi → Filippo Delli Carri
3rd Substitution
56'
46'
Event
Rareș Burnete → Nicola Mosti
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Kevin Zeroli → Fabio Maistro
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Filippo Delli Carri
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
42'
Event
Dany Mota
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
19'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Marco Bellich attempts a header but misses the shot.
90
Attempt Attempt
Rares Burnete scores with a left-footed shot.
90
Attempt Attempt
Agustin Alvarez Martinez takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Patrick Cutrone takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Marco Bellich receives a yellow card.
87
Attempt Attempt
Alvin Okoro's right-footed shot is blocked.
87
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Omar Correia receives a yellow card.
85
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Patrick Cutrone scores to make it 1-0.
85
Attempt Attempt
Patrick Cutrone scores with a left-footed shot.
84
Update Update
Luca Ravanelli comes on for Paulo Azzi.
81
Update Update
Alessandro Gabrielloni comes on for Christian Dalle Mura.
80
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Rares Burnete receives a yellow card.
77
Update Update
Agustin Alvarez Martinez is on, and Dany Mota Carvalho is off.
76
Update Update
Paulo Azzi's header attempt goes wide.
75
Update Update
Rares Burnete takes a header, but it misses the target.
71
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Demba Ngagne Thiam receives a yellow card.
69
Attempt Attempt
Hernani Azevedo Junior takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
65
Substitution Substitution
Christian Pierobon is substituted for Lorenzo Carissoni.
64
Update Update
Manuel Ricciardi is on, and Giuseppe Leone is off.
57
Update Update
Hernani Azevedo Junior is on, and Andrea Colpani is off.
57
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Patrick Cutrone replaces Andrea Petagna.
56
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Patrick Cutrone comes on for Andrea Petagna.
48
Attempt Attempt
Filippo Delli Carri takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
46
Attempt Attempt
Omar Correia's right-footed shot is blocked.
46
Update Update
Kevin Zeroli replaces Fabio Maistro.
46
Update Update
Rares Burnete comes on for Nicola Mosti.
45
Attempt Attempt
Nicola Mosti has a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
42
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Filippo Delli Carri receives a yellow card.
34
Attempt Attempt
Andrea Carboni attempts a header but misses the shot.
26
Attempt Attempt
Paulo Azzi takes a right-footed shot but misses.
22
Attempt Attempt
Samuele Birindelli's right-footed shot is blocked.
19
Attempt Attempt
Andrea Petagna's left-footed shot is blocked.
19
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Dany Mota Carvalho receives a yellow card.
15
Attempt Attempt
Alessio Cacciamani takes a right-footed shot but misses.
8
Attempt Attempt
Andrea Carboni attempts a header but misses the shot.
4
Attempt Attempt
Leonardo Colombo takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
2
Attempt Attempt
Andrea Colpani attempts a header but misses the shot.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Maurizio Mariani.

CONCLUSION

Monza completed a successful second leg performance by overcoming Juve Stabia 2-1 after a scoreless first half. The home side managed to convert their opportunities effectively despite trailing in possession throughout much of the game. With the aggregate advantage secured from the outset the victory ensured progression without the need for extra time. Both teams showed discipline as the match remained free of dismissals and major controversies. Monza's ability to respond in the second period highlighted their tactical flexibility and clinical finishing. This result brings a positive close to their campaign in the tie while Juve Stabia will reflect on missed chances that could have altered the outcome.

Monza vs Juve Stabia preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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