Monaco vs LOSC Lille Prediction, Preview and Stats

France flag 2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Stade Louis II. Sun, 10 May - 7:00 PM
Ligue 1
Monaco ASM
0 Winner 1
LOSC Lille LOSC
Full Time Sun, 10 May 7:00 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
|
Goal
Denis Zakaria - 72' (Own Goal)

CONTEXT

In a hard-fought Ligue 1 encounter at Stade Louis II, AS Monaco fell 0-1 to LOSC Lille, with the visitors claiming a crucial away win. The first half ended 0-0, as both sides traded possession without breaking the deadlock, Monaco holding 55% to Lille's 45%. Post-interval, Lille capitalized on their efficiency, scoring the lone goal while Monaco's attacks faltered despite sustained pressure. No red cards disrupted play, allowing a pure tactical battle. Lille, deemed the stronger outfit pre-match, delivered a performance with minimal structural deviation, aligning closely with expectations. Monaco's inability to convert possession into threats underscored Lille's defensive solidity and clinical edge. This result sees Lille strengthen their top-flight standing, while Monaco reflects on missed opportunities in a game defined by second-half resolve.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Structural deviation measured minimal at 4.8% favoring LOSC Lille.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment confirmed with LOSC Lille's victory.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable from missing metrics.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards produced zero distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

C. Turpin

France 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

N. Danos

1st Assistant

France

B. Pages

2nd Assistant

France

J. Pignard

4th Official

France

League averages

Ligue 1 Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 20.25
Yellow cards / match 3.19
Red cards / match 0.17
Penalties / match 0.27
Monaco S. Pocognoli
S. Pocognoli
VS
LOSC Lille B. Génésio
B. Génésio
1.7
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.9
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Metz Rank: 62 W
Toulouse Rank: 72 D
Auxerre Rank: 68 D
Paris Rank: 73 L
Olympique Marseille Rank: 79 W
Olympique Lyonnais Rank: 83 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Le Havre Rank: 67 D
Paris Rank: 71 W
Nice Rank: 69 D
Toulouse Rank: 74 W
Lens Rank: 82 W
Olympique Marseille Rank: 79 W
13
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
13 - 10 - 13
13

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Monaco
0.19%
Draw
4.58%
Away LOSC Lille
95.23%

Movement

Changes since opening
Monaco
-0.05%
Draw
-1.83%
LOSC Lille
+1.88%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
80.13
80.71
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Monaco
LOSC Lille
Power Score
80.13
80.71
League Position
6
4
Global Rank
60
57

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Monaco — Opponent-weighted form score
LOSC Lille — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Monaco LOSC Lille

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Monaco

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

LOSC Lille

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Monaco ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy LOSC Lille
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Monaco LOSC Lille
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Monaco LOSC Lille
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Monaco
LOSC Lille
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Monaco
vs
LOSC Lille
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Monaco LOSC Lille
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Monaco 0.00
LOSC Lille 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Monaco LOSC Lille
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Monaco 0.00
LOSC Lille 0.00
Monaco
LOSC Lille
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • LOSC had peak pressure around 58'.
  • LOSC started the game with stronger pressure.
ASM Pressure LOSC Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: LOSC reached the top pressure at 58' (73.39).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 36 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Monaco ASM Home
36 matches
LOSC Lille LOSC Away
Match Record
13
Wins
13
10
Draws
10
13
Losses
13
Goals
43
Goals Scored
42
42
Goals Conceded
43
+1
Goal Difference
-1

Data last updated: 2026-05-10T18:31:12+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
L. Hradecký
Finland
1 L. Hradecký
D. Zakaria Lako Lado
Switzerland
6 D. Zakaria Lako Lado
T. Kehrer
Substitution
Germany
5 T. Kehrer
C. Mawissa Elebi
France
13 C. Mawissa Elebi
J. Teze
Substitution
Netherlands
4 J. Teze
L. Camara
Senegal
15 L. Camara
A. Bamba
Substitution
France
23 A. Bamba
S. Adingra
Substitution
Ivory Coast
24 S. Adingra
M. Akliouche
France
11 M. Akliouche
A. Golovin
Substitution
Russia
10 A. Golovin
F. Balogun
England
9 F. Balogun
Pitch
B. Özer
Türkiye
1 B. Özer
R. Perraud
Substitution
France
15 R. Perraud
A. Mandi
Algeria
23 A. Mandi
N. Ngoy
Belgium
3 N. Ngoy
T. Meunier
Belgium
12 T. Meunier
B. André
France
21 B. André
A. Bouaddi
Substitution
France
32 A. Bouaddi
F. Sanches Correia
Substitution
Portugal
27 F. Sanches Correia
H. Haraldsson
Substitution
Iceland
10 H. Haraldsson
N. Mukau
Substitution
Belgium
17 N. Mukau
M. Fernandez Pardo
Belgium
7 M. Fernandez Pardo

General Information

Date & Time :
May 10, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stade Louis II.
Capacity :
18523
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Clément Turpin
Nicolas Danos
Benjamin Pages
Jérémie Pignard

Statistics

Possession
ASM
52%
LOSC
48%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
0 Big Chances Created 1
3 Shots 4
42 Dangerous attacks 45
55 Possession 45
5 Corners 2
10 Free kicks 13
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

22 Throwins 25
8 Successful Headers 12
8 Successful Dribbles 5
42 Successful Dribbles Percentage 31
8 Goal Kicks 5
19 Dribble Attempts 16
2 Injuries 2
71 Ball Safe 66
6 Goal Attempts 9
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

102 Attacks 105
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

461 Passes 383
82 Successful Passes Percentage 79
380 Successful Passes 301
39 Successful Long Passes Percentage 49
4 Key Passes 5
49 Long Passes 61
19 Successful Long Passes 30

Defensive

12 Interceptions 10
2 Saves 3
20 Tackles 22
45 Duels Won 51

Build-up

2 Accurate Crosses 1
12 Total Crosses 10

Discipline

13 Fouls 10
2 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Clément Turpin

Starting XI ▼

1
Lukas Hradecky
Lukas Hradecky Goalkeeper
6.75
5
Thilo Kehrer
Thilo Kehrer Defender
6.92
49
Ilane Touré
Ilane Touré
Midfielder80'
6
Denis Zakaria
Denis Zakaria Defender
6.88
13
Christian Mawissa
Christian Mawissa Defender
6.67
4
J. Teze
J. Teze Midfielder
6.91
14
Mika Biereth
Mika Biereth
Attacker80'
6.61
15
Lamine Camara
Lamine Camara Midfielder
7.19
23
Aladji Bamba
Aladji Bamba Midfielder
6.81
28
Mamadou Coulibaly
Mamadou Coulibaly
Midfielder58'
6.78
24
Simon Adingra
Simon Adingra Midfielder
6.77
25
Wout Faes
Wout Faes
Defender58'
6.77
9
Folarin Balogun
Folarin Balogun Attacker
6.98
10
Aleksandr Golovin
Aleksandr Golovin Attacker
6.99
31
Ansu Fati
Ansu Fati
Attacker59'
6.89
11
Maghnes Akliouche
Maghnes Akliouche Attacker
7.11
Referee : Clément Turpin

Starting XI ▼

1
Berke Özer
Berke Özer Goalkeeper
6.84
3
Nathan Ngoy
Nathan Ngoy Defender
6.86
12
Thomas Meunier
Thomas Meunier Defender
6.9
15
Romain Perraud
Romain Perraud Defender
7.06
4
Alexsandro
Alexsandro
Defender89'
6.77
23
Aïssa Mandi
Aïssa Mandi Defender
7.11
10
Hákon Arnar Haraldsson
Hákon Arnar Haraldsson Midfielder
7.08
24
Calvin Verdonk
Calvin Verdonk
Defender90'
6.61
17
Ngal'ayel Mukau
Ngal'ayel Mukau Midfielder
6.64
8
Ethan Mbappé
Ethan Mbappé
Midfielder62'
6.72
21
Benjamin André
Benjamin André Midfielder
7.19
27
Félix Correia
Félix Correia Midfielder
6.9
28
Gaëtan Perrin
Gaëtan Perrin
Attacker71'
6.92
32
Ayyoub Bouaddi
Ayyoub Bouaddi Midfielder
6.8
6
Nabil Bentaleb
Nabil Bentaleb
Midfielder46'
6.89
7
Matías Fernández-Pardo
Matías Fernández-Pardo Attacker
7.08

Events

2ND-HALF
90'
Event
Calvin Verdonk → Hákon Arnar Haraldsson
10th Substitution
89'
Event
Alexsandro → Romain Perraud
9th Substitution
Event
Ilane Touré → Thilo Kehrer
8th Substitution
80'
Event
Mika Biereth → J. Teze
7th Substitution
80'
Event
Mamadou Coulibaly
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
79'
75'
Event
Gaëtan Perrin
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
72'
Event
Denis Zakaria
Right foot shot / 1st Own Goal
71'
Event
Gaëtan Perrin → Félix Correia
6th Substitution
62'
Event
Ethan Mbappé → Ngal'ayel Mukau
5th Substitution
Event
Ansu Fati → Aleksandr Golovin
4th Substitution
59'
Event
Wout Faes → Simon Adingra
3rd Substitution
58'
Event
Mamadou Coulibaly → Aladji Bamba
2nd Substitution
58'
54'
Event
Matías Fernández-Pardo
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
46'
Event
Nabil Bentaleb → Ayyoub Bouaddi
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
23'
Event
Ayyoub Bouaddi
Handball / 1st Yellowcard
18'
Event
Matías Fernández-Pardo
Penalty disallowed

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Calvin Verdonk replaces Hakon Arnar Haraldsson.
90
Update Update
Alexsandro Ribeiro comes on for Romain Perraud.
90
Attempt Attempt
Thomas Meunier takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
83
Attempt Attempt
Matias Fernandez Pardo takes a right-footed shot but misses.
80
Update Update
Mika Bierith replaces Jordan Teze.
80
Update Update
Ilane Toure replaces Thilo Kehrer.
79
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Mamadou Coulibaly receives a yellow card.
76
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Gaetan Perrin receives a yellow card.
72
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Own goal by Denis Lemi Zakaria Lako Lado gives the opposing team a 1-0 lead.
71
Update Update
Gaetan Perrin comes on for Felix Correia.
71
Attempt Attempt
Benjamin Andre takes a left-footed shot but misses.
65
Attempt Attempt
Mamadou Coulibaly's left-footed shot is saved.
62
Update Update
Ethan Mbappe is on, and Ngal Ayel Mukau is off.
59
Attempt Attempt
Thomas Meunier takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
59
Update Update
Anssumane Fati Vieira comes on for Aleksandr Golovin.
59
Update Update
Mamadou Coulibaly is on, and Aladji Bamba is off.
58
Update Update
Wout Faes is on, and Simon Adingra is off.
54
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Matias Fernandez Pardo receives a yellow card.
50
Attempt Attempt
Romain Perraud takes a left-footed shot but misses.
48
Attempt Attempt
Felix Correia takes a right-footed shot but misses.
46
Update Update
Nabil Bentaleb comes on for Ayyoub Bouaddi.
44
Attempt Attempt
Simon Adingra takes a left-footed shot but misses.
39
Attempt Attempt
Maghnes Akliouche takes a right-footed shot but misses.
39
Attempt Attempt
Simon Adingra takes a left-footed shot but misses.
27
Attempt Attempt
Maghnes Akliouche takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
23
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ayyoub Bouaddi receives a yellow card.
15
Attempt Attempt
Ayyoub Bouaddi takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
9
Attempt Attempt
Jordan Teze's header is saved.
9
Update Update
Folarin Balogun's header is blocked.

CONCLUSION

LOSC Lille's 0-1 triumph over AS Monaco highlighted their superior execution, turning modest possession into a decisive result. Monaco's 55% control yielded no goals, exposing finishing woes against a resolute defense. With no interruptions from cards or major shifts, Lille's win reflected their stronger billing, maintaining efficiency throughout. This outcome boosts Lille's campaign momentum, potentially pivotal in the title race, while Monaco must sharpen conversion rates. The minimal deviation underscores a predictable yet gritty affair, rewarding tactical discipline over dominance.

Monaco vs LOSC Lille preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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