Monaco vs Brest Prediction, Preview and Stats

France flag 2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Stade Louis II. Sat, 14 Mar - 8:05 PM
Ligue 1
Monaco ASM
2 Winner 0
Brest B29
Full Time Sat, 14 Mar 8:05 PM
Aleksandr Golovin - 78'
Folarin Balogun - 19'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Monaco 2–0 Brest. The result saw Monaco take the points. Monaco showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 56%–44%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Monaco showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

J. Pignard

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

J. Haulbert

2nd Assistant

A. Drouet

1st Assistant

A. Petit

4th Official

Monaco S. Pocognoli
S. Pocognoli
VS
Brest E. Roy
E. Roy
1.12
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.59
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Nice Rank: 71 D
Rennes Rank: 77 W
Le Havre Rank: 69 D
Lorient Rank: 74 L
Olympique Lyonnais Rank: 85 L
Olympique Marseille Rank: 82 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Le Havre Rank: 66 W
Metz Rank: 63 W
Olympique Marseille Rank: 82 W
LOSC Lille Rank: 78 D
Lorient Rank: 74 W
Nice Rank: 71 D
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 0 - 6
6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Monaco
58.45%
Draw
23.16%
Away Brest
18.39%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
79.9
74.95
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Monaco
Brest
Power Score
79.9
74.95
League Position
6
10
Global Rank
58
95

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Monaco — Opponent-weighted form score
Brest — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Monaco Brest

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Monaco

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Brest

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Monaco ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Brest
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
22.50
33.18
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
33.18
22.50
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Monaco -1.05 Efficiency Index
vs
Brest +1.05 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Monaco
Brest
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Monaco
vs
Brest
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Monaco Brest
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Monaco Brest
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Monaco
Brest
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Monaco ASM Home
11 matches
Brest B29 Away
Match Record
7
Wins
4
0
Draws
0
4
Losses
7
Goals
17
Goals Scored
11
11
Goals Conceded
17
+6
Goal Difference
-6

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T01:45:56+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
L. Hradecký
Finland
1 L. Hradecký
T. Kehrer
Germany
5 T. Kehrer
D. Zakaria Lako Lado
Switzerland
6 (C) D. Zakaria Lako Lado
W. Faes
Belgium
25 W. Faes
J. Teze
Substitution
Netherlands
4 J. Teze
L. Camara
Senegal
15 L. Camara
A. Bamba
Substitution
France
23 A. Bamba
S. Adingra
Substitution
Ivory Coast
24 S. Adingra
M. Akliouche
Substitution
France
11 M. Akliouche
A. Golovin
Russia
10 A. Golovin
F. Balogun
Substitution
England
9 F. Balogun
Pitch
G. Coudert
France
30 G. Coudert
D. Guindo
Mali
27 D. Guindo
M. Diaz
4 M. Diaz
B. Chardonnet
France
5 (C) B. Chardonnet
K. Lala
France
77 K. Lala
H. Magnetti
Substitution
France
8 H. Magnetti
J. Chotard
France
13 J. Chotard
E. Dina Ebimbe
Substitution
France
7 E. Dina Ebimbe
K. Doumbia
Mali
23 K. Doumbia
R. Del Castillo
Substitution
France
10 R. Del Castillo
L. Ajorque
France
19 L. Ajorque

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 14, 2026, 08:05 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Stadium :
Stade Louis II.
Capacity :
18523
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Julien Haulbert
Jérémie Pignard
Aurélien Drouet
Aurélien Petit

Statistics

Possession
ASM
54%
B29
46%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
5 Big Chances Created 2
10 Shots 12
52 Dangerous attacks 52
56 Possession 44
3 Corners 8
8 Free kicks 9
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 3
60 Ball Safe 56
7 Goal Attempts 6
10 Successful Dribbles 4
22 Throwins 20
16 Successful Headers 20
23 Dribble Attempts 13
43 Successful Dribbles Percentage 31
12 Goal Kicks 6
2 Assists 0

Attacking

3 Big Chances Missed 2
115 Attacks 108

Possession

84 Successful Passes Percentage 76
442 Successful Passes 301
16 Successful Long Passes 25
527 Passes 394
37 Successful Long Passes Percentage 40
43 Long Passes 63
8 Key Passes 8

Defensive

1 Saves 2
13 Tackles 28
11 Interceptions 15

Build-up

8 Total Crosses 28
4 Accurate Crosses 7

Discipline

5 Offsides 0
9 Fouls 8

Lineup

Referee : Jérémie Pignard

Starting XI ▼

1
Lukas Hradecky
Lukas Hradecky Goalkeeper
6.76
5
Thilo Kehrer
Thilo Kehrer Defender
7.17
6
Denis Zakaria
Denis Zakaria (C) Defender
7.05
25
Wout Faes
Wout Faes Defender
7.21
4
J. Teze
J. Teze Midfielder
6.71
20
Kassoum Ouattara
Kassoum Ouattara
Defender83'
6.35
15
Lamine Camara
Lamine Camara Midfielder
7.76
23
Aladji Bamba
Aladji Bamba Midfielder
6.74
28
Mamadou Coulibaly
Mamadou Coulibaly
Midfielder57'
7.22
24
Simon Adingra
Simon Adingra Midfielder
5.85
13
Christian Mawissa
Christian Mawissa
Defender83'
6.45
9
Folarin Balogun
Folarin Balogun Attacker
6.36
14
Mika Biereth
Mika Biereth
Attacker70'
6.59
10
Aleksandr Golovin
Aleksandr Golovin Attacker
8.12
11
Maghnes Akliouche
Maghnes Akliouche Attacker
6.6
31
Ansu Fati
Ansu Fati
Attacker70'
6.64
Referee : Jérémie Pignard

Starting XI ▼

30
Grégoire Coudert
Grégoire Coudert Goalkeeper
6.45
4
Junior Diaz
Junior Diaz Defender
6.84
5
Brendan Chardonnet
Brendan Chardonnet (C) Defender
7.06
27
Daouda Guindo
Daouda Guindo Defender
6.62
77
Kenny Lala
Kenny Lala Defender
6.93
7
Junior Dina Ebimbe
Junior Dina Ebimbe Midfielder
6.13
14
Rémy Labeau Lascary
Rémy Labeau Lascary
Attacker67'
6.64
8
Hugo Magnetti
Hugo Magnetti Midfielder
6.97
24
Lucas Tousart
Lucas Tousart
Midfielder83'
6.22
10
Romain Del Castillo
Romain Del Castillo Midfielder
6.76
99
Pathé Mboup
Pathé Mboup
Attacker83'
6.51
13
Joris Chotard
Joris Chotard Midfielder
6.42
23
Kamory Doumbia
Kamory Doumbia Midfielder
6.57
19
Ludovic Ajorque
Ludovic Ajorque Attacker
7.19

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Christian Mawissa → Simon Adingra
5th Substitution
83'
Event
Kassoum Ouattara → J. Teze
7th Substitution
83'
83'
Event
Lucas Tousart → Hugo Magnetti
8th Substitution
83'
Event
Pathé Mboup → Romain Del Castillo
6th Substitution
Event
Aleksandr Golovin
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
78'
Event
Ansu Fati → Maghnes Akliouche
4th Substitution
70'
Event
Mika Biereth → Folarin Balogun
3rd Substitution
70'
67'
Event
Rémy Labeau Lascary → Junior Dina Ebimbe
2nd Substitution
Event
Mamadou Coulibaly → Aladji Bamba
1st Substitution
57'
Event
Aladji Bamba
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
46'
1ST-HALF
45+2'
Event
Junior Diaz
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Thilo Kehrer
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
36'
Event
Folarin Balogun
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
19'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the final score: Monaco 2, Brest 0.
90
Update Update
Lamine Camara from Monaco has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
Fouled by Lucas Tousart - Brest. nnRephrased: Lucas Tousart from Brest committed a foul.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the final score being Monaco 2, Brest 0.
87
Update Update
Lucas Tousart committed a foul against Brest.
87
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be three minutes of stoppage time.
85
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Brest after Kassoum Ouattara allowed the ball to go out.
85
Update Update
Aleksandr Golovin from Monaco earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Monaco: Christian Mawissa comes on to replace Simon Adingra.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Brest: Pathé Mboup comes on to replace Romain Del Castillo.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Brest: Lucas Tousart replaces Hugo Magnetti.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Monaco: Kassoum Ouattara comes on to replace Jordan Teze.
82
Update Update
Another offensive push. Kamory Doumbia from Brest heads the ball from the middle of the box, but it's stopped by goalkeeper Lukás Hrádecký, who is positioned centrally. The assist came from Rémy Labeau Lascary, who delivered a cross.
81
Update Update
Mika Biereth from Monaco committed a foul.
81
Update Update
Brendan Chardonnet from Brest has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
81
Attempt Attempt
A shot was deflected. Rémy Labeau Lascary from Brest attempted a right-footed strike from the middle of the penalty area, but it was blocked. The assist came from Kamory Doumbia.
80
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Brest after Thilo Kehrer allowed the ball to go out.
80
Corner Corner
Opportunity squandered! Kamory Doumbia from Brest attempted a header from the center of the penalty area but failed to find the target. The assist came from Romain Del Castillo, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
78
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Monaco leads Brest 2-0. Aleksandr Golovin scores with a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area.
76
Update Update
Wout Faes from Monaco has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
76
Update Update
Ludovic Ajorque committed a foul against Brest.
75
Update Update
Ansu Fati commits a handball for Monaco.
75
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Ansu Fati from Monaco takes a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist was provided by Mika Biereth.
73
Update Update
Offside call against Monaco. Aleksandr Golovin has been flagged for being offside.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Monaco: Mika Biereth replaces Folarin Balogun.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Monaco: Ansu Fati comes on to replace Maghnes Akliouche.
69
Update Update
Folarin Balogun from Monaco commits a handball foul.
68
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Folarin Balogun of Monaco attempted a left-footed shot from a challenging angle on the left side.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Brest: Rémy Labeau Lascary comes on to replace Junior Dina Ebimbe.
63
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Brest after Folarin Balogun gave away possession.
63
Corner Corner
Close call! Brendan Chardonnet from Brest had a header from the center of the box following a corner, but it just narrowly missed the target.
61
Update Update
Simon Adingra committed a foul against Monaco.
61
Update Update
Kenny Lala from Brest has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
59
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Monaco after Junior Diaz allowed the ball to go out.
57
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Monaco: Mamadou Coulibaly replaces Aladji Bamba.
53
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Maghnes Akliouche from Monaco attempts a right-footed strike from the center of the penalty area, but it's blocked.
52
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Monaco after Grégoire Coudert allowed it to go out.
52
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Monaco after Grégoire Coudert allowed it to go out.
50
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Daouda Guindo from Brest takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
49
Update Update
Offside call against Monaco. Folarin Balogun is caught in an offside position.
47
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Brest after Wout Faes allowed the ball to go out.
46
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Aladji Bamba of Monaco has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
46
Update Update
Hugo Magnetti from Brest has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
46
Update Update
Aladji Bamba from Monaco committed a foul.
45
Update Update
Junior Diaz commits a foul for Brest.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with Monaco leading Brest 1-0.
45
Update Update
Folarin Balogun from Monaco earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
45
Update Update
Joris Chotard from Brest committed a foul.
45
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
45
Update Update
Aleksandr Golovin from Monaco earned a free kick in an offensive position.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be two minutes of stoppage time.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Junior Diaz of Brest has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with Monaco leading Brest 1-0.
44
Update Update
The match has been temporarily halted due to an injury to Junior Diaz from Brest.
44
Update Update
Junior Diaz from Brest has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
44
Update Update
Folarin Balogun from Monaco committed a foul.
41
Corner Corner
Opportunity squandered! Brendan Chardonnet from Brest attempted a header from the center of the penalty area following a corner kick.
40
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Brest after Thilo Kehrer allowed the ball to go out.
39
Update Update
Junior Diaz from Brest committed a foul.
39
Update Update
Junior Diaz from Brest committed a foul.
36
Update Update
Ludovic Ajorque from Brest has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
36
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Thilo Kehrer of Monaco has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
36
Update Update
Folarin Balogun from Monaco was awarded a free kick on the right side of the pitch.
35
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push. Aleksandr Golovin from Monaco takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's stopped by the goalkeeper.
35
Update Update
Thilo Kehrer from Monaco committed a foul.
35
Update Update
Offside call against Monaco. Maghnes Akliouche has been flagged for being offside.
34
Update Update
Joris Chotard from Brest committed a foul.
34
Update Update
Maghnes Akliouche from Monaco has earned a free kick in an offensive position.
32
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Brest after Denis Zakaria allowed the ball to go out.
31
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Brest after Denis Zakaria allowed the ball to go out.
30
Update Update
Ludovic Ajorque of Brest has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
30
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Junior Dina Ebimbe from Brest attempted a left-footed shot from close range but sent it wide to the left. The assist came from Brendan Chardonnet, who delivered a cross.
29
Update Update
Wout Faes from Monaco committed a foul.
28
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Lamine Camara from Monaco attempted a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it sailed high and wide to the right. The assist came from Jordan Teze, who set him up with a header.
28
Update Update
Wout Faes from Monaco has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
26
Update Update
Ludovic Ajorque committed a foul against Brest.
24
Update Update
Offside call against Monaco. Maghnes Akliouche has been caught in an offside position.
23
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Romain Del Castillo from Brest attempted a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
19
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Monaco takes the lead 1-0 against Brest. Folarin Balogun scores with a left-footed shot from the center of the box, finding the top right corner of the net. The assist comes from Lamine Camara.
17
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Monaco after Junior Diaz allowed the ball to go out.
15
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Brest after Aleksandr Golovin allowed the ball to go out.
14
Update Update
Hugo Magnetti from Brest has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
14
Update Update
Maghnes Akliouche from Monaco committed a foul.
12
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Ludovic Ajorque from Brest attempted a left-footed shot from a challenging angle on the left but failed to convert. The assist came from Kenny Lala, who delivered a cross.
11
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Romain Del Castillo from Brest attempted a left-footed shot from the center of the penalty area.
6
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Brest after Denis Zakaria allowed the ball to go out of play.
4
Update Update
Offside call against Monaco. Maghnes Akliouche has been caught offside.
1
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Joris Chotard from Brest fires a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Monaco exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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