Molde vs Vålerenga Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2026 Eliteserien, Norway

Aker Stadion Sun, 26 Apr - 12:30 PM

Eliteserien

Molde Molde

Vålerenga Vålerenga

Full Time Sun, 26 Apr 12:30 PM

Round 6 Regular Season

Sondre Granaas - 86'

Eirik Hestad - 57'

Fredrik Gulbrandsen - 55', 21'

Emil Breivik - 51'

Lucas Haren - 45+1'

CONTEXT

Molde secured a convincing 5-1 victory over Vålerenga in a match that saw them level at 1-1 at halftime before pulling away decisively in the second half. As the stronger team, Molde controlled 58% of possession and capitalized on their superiority without facing any red card disruptions. The game remained competitive early on, with both sides scoring once before the break, but Molde's structural edge became evident post-interval, leading to four additional goals. Vålerenga managed only 42% possession and struggled to convert limited chances. No significant second-half tactical adjustments were noted, and the outcome aligned with pre-match expectations given Molde's minimal 2.4% deviation. Expected goals data was unavailable, preventing deeper efficiency analysis, but the final score reflected Molde's dominance throughout. This result underscores Molde's home strength against a resilient yet outmatched Vålerenga side.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Molde showed minimal 2.4% structural deviation in line with their stronger team status.
Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with expectations for both teams.
xG alignment: xG data unavailable, preventing alignment assessment.
Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market expectations.
xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated due to missing data.
Event impact: No impactful events like red cards occurred to alter the match flow.
Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion to the scoreline.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

C. Moen

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

J. Valstadsve

1st Assistant

J. Knutsen

2nd Assistant

T. Halsen

4th Official

M. Falk

G. Bakke

1.6

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.4

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

22 - 5 - 11

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Molde

97.6%

Draw

1.91%

Vålerenga

0.49%

Team Power Ranking

25.16

21.98

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Molde

Vålerenga

Power Score

25.16

21.98

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Molde — Opponent-weighted form score

Vålerenga — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Molde Vålerenga

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Molde

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Vålerenga

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Molde ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Vålerenga

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

32.33

27.98

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

27.98

32.33

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Molde +0.45 Efficiency Index

Vålerenga -0.45 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Molde

Vålerenga

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Molde ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Vålerenga

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Molde Vålerenga

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Molde Vålerenga

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Molde

Vålerenga

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Molde

Vålerenga

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Molde Vålerenga

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Molde Vålerenga

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Molde

Vålerenga

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

Molde had peak pressure around 59'.
Molde started the game with stronger pressure.

Molde Pressure Vålerenga Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: Molde reached the top pressure at 59' (79.87).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 38 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Molde Molde Home

38 matches

Vålerenga Vålerenga Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

+30

Goal Difference

-30

Data last updated: 2026-04-27T00:03:24+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1

Match Formation 4-4-2

22 A. Posiadała

18 H. Østervold Stenevik

4 S. Hansen

33 B. Risa

26 S. Kabini

15 V. Hoff

17 M. Møller Dæhli

5 E. Hestad

10 E. Breivik

23 S. Granaas

8 F. Gulbrandsen

1 O. Hedvall

2 K. Finnsson

37 I. Näsberg

4 A. Olsen

3 H. Sjåtil

11 E. Sørensen

10 C. Lange

28 M. Westergaard

77 L. Janus Ravn-Haren

17 M. Grundetjern

8 H. Bjørdal

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 26, 2026, 12:30 PM

Competition :

2026 Eliteserien, Norway · Round 6 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Aker Stadion

Capacity :

11249

Pitch Surface :

Artificial turf

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Jørgen Rønning Valstadsve

Jon-Michael Knutsen

Torgeir Halsen

Christian Moen

Statistics

Possession

Molde

57%

Vålerenga

43%

Top Statistics

5 Goals 1

4 Big Chances Created 1

2 Shots 2

35 Dangerous attacks 35

58 Possession 42

2 Corners 5

7 Free kicks 6

1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

7 Goal Kicks 17

38 Successful Dribbles Percentage 48

24 Dribble Attempts 23

22 Throwins 21

112 Ball Safe 80

4 Assists 1

9 Successful Dribbles 11

15 Goal Attempts 7

0 Injuries 1

5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

63 Attacks 54

3 Counter Attacks 0

1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

560 Passes 411

13 Key Passes 7

50 Successful Long Passes Percentage 47

50 Long Passes 49

88 Successful Passes Percentage 81

494 Successful Passes 331

25 Successful Long Passes 23

Defensive

19 Tackles 21

47 Duels Won 42

8 Interceptions 4

6 Saves 2

Build-up

4 Accurate Crosses 2

20 Total Crosses 11

Discipline

6 Fouls 7

0 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Christian Moen

Manager ▼

M. Falk Coach

Starting XI ▼

Albert Posiadala Goalkeeper

7.09

S. Hansen Defender

7.25

Halldor Stenevik Defender

7.16

Samukelo Kabini Defender

6.5

Birk Risa Defender

6.98

Eirik Hestad Midfielder

6.92

Viktor Bender

Midfielder80'

6.63

Emil Breivik Midfielder

7.64

Oskar Spiten-Nysæter

Attacker89'

Vebjørn Hoff Midfielder

6.82

Mats Møller Dæhli Midfielder

6.82

Jacob Christensen

Midfielder63'

6.74

Sondre Granaas Midfielder

6.6

Trent Kone Doherty

Attacker89'

6.72

Fredrik Gulbrandsen Attacker

6.63

Jalal Abdullai

Attacker63'

6.85

Substitutes ▼

Jacob Christensen

Midfielder63'

6.74

Jalal Abdullai

Attacker63'

6.85

Viktor Bender

Midfielder80'

6.63

Trent Kone Doherty

Attacker89'

6.72

Oskar Spiten-Nysæter

Attacker89'

Bench ▼

M. Eikrem Myklebust Goalkeeper

Eirik Haugan Defender

6.88

Martin Linnes Defender

6.93

Blerton Isufi Midfielder

6.56

Referee : Christian Moen