Molde vs Rosenborg Prediction, Preview and Stats

Norway flag 2026 Eliteserien, Norway
Aker Stadion Sat, 14 Mar - 5:00 PM
Eliteserien
Molde Molde
2 Winner 0
Rosenborg Rosenborg
Full Time Sat, 14 Mar 5:00 PM
Eirik Hestad - 57'
Emil Breivik - 31'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Molde 2–0 Rosenborg. The result saw Molde take the points. Molde showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 62%–38%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Molde showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

T. Hansen

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0
Molde M. Falk
M. Falk
VS
Rosenborg A. Johansson
A. Johansson
1.33
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.09
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sarpsborg 08 Rank: 60 L
Brann Rank: 69 W
Haugesund Rank: 42 W
Rosenborg Rank: 64 W
Bodø / Glimt Rank: 82 L
Sandefjord Rank: 62 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Strømsgodset Rank: 49 W
Tromsø Rank: 66 L
Vålerenga Rank: 60 W
Molde Rank: 64 L
Sandefjord Rank: 62 D
Brann Rank: 69 L
14
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
14 - 8 - 18
18

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Molde
50.57%
Draw
24.93%
Away Rosenborg
24.49%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
64.46
62.2
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Molde
Rosenborg
Power Score
64.46
62.2
League Position
3
15
Global Rank
318
389

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Molde — Opponent-weighted form score
Rosenborg — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Molde Rosenborg

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Molde

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Rosenborg

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Molde ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rosenborg
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
25.24
26.05
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.05
25.24
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Molde -0.08 Efficiency Index
vs
Rosenborg +0.08 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Molde
Rosenborg
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Molde
vs
Rosenborg
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Molde Rosenborg
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Molde Rosenborg
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Molde
Rosenborg
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 10 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Molde Molde Home
10 matches
Rosenborg Rosenborg Away
Match Record
4
Wins
2
4
Draws
4
2
Losses
4
Goals
18
Goals Scored
14
14
Goals Conceded
18
+4
Goal Difference
-4

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T01:28:10+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
M. Juhl Kikkenborg
Denmark
1 M. Juhl Kikkenborg
H. Østervold Stenevik
Substitution
Norway
18 H. Østervold Stenevik
S. Hansen
4 S. Hansen
B. Risa
Norway
33 B. Risa
S. Kabini
South Africa
26 S. Kabini
E. Hestad
Substitution
Norway
5 E. Hestad
J. Christensen
Denmark
14 J. Christensen
V. Hoff
Substitution
Norway
15 V. Hoff
C. Zady Sery
Substitution
Ivory Coast
11 C. Zady Sery
E. Breivik
Norway
10 (C) E. Breivik
K. Eriksen
Substitution
Norway
20 K. Eriksen
Pitch
L. Wahlstedt
Sweden
1 L. Wahlstedt
T. Solheim Dahl
Norway
3 T. Solheim Dahl
H. Singsdal Volden
Norway
5 H. Singsdal Volden
M. Ceide
Substitution
Norway
4 M. Ceide
A. Fonn Witry
Norway
16 A. Fonn Witry
E. Ceide
Norway
35 E. Ceide
J. Svensson
Substitution
Norway
22 (C) J. Svensson
M. Bomholt
Denmark
17 M. Bomholt
D. Duris
Substitution
Slovakia
29 D. Duris
A. Chiakha
Denmark
18 A. Chiakha
D. Islamovic
Montenegro
9 D. Islamovic

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 14, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition :
2026 Eliteserien, Norway
Stadium :
Aker Stadion
Capacity :
11249
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Tore Hansen

Statistics

Possession
Molde
59%
Rosenborg
41%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 1
10 Shots 3
53 Dangerous attacks 38
62 Possession 38
5 Corners 4
13 Free kicks 14
1 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

2 Assists 0
15 Throwins 28
75 Ball Safe 73
12 Goal Attempts 3
5 Substitutions 3
9 Dribble Attempts 20
56 Successful Dribbles Percentage 25
6 Goal Kicks 13
5 Successful Dribbles 5

Attacking

0 Big Chances Missed 1
131 Attacks 90

Possession

563 Passes 349
82 Successful Passes Percentage 75
464 Successful Passes 261
10 Key Passes 5
16 Successful Long Passes 27
56 Long Passes 60
29 Successful Long Passes Percentage 45

Defensive

31 Tackles 10
1 Saves 2
9 Interceptions 13

Build-up

8 Accurate Crosses 2
18 Total Crosses 11

Discipline

13 Fouls 13
0 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Tore Hansen

Starting XI ▼

1
Mads Kikkenborg
Mads Kikkenborg Goalkeeper
6.7
4
S. Hansen
S. Hansen Defender
7.99
18
Halldor Stenevik
Halldor Stenevik Defender
7.73
6
Isak Helstad Amundsen
Isak Helstad Amundsen
Defender90+4'
26
Samukelo Kabini
Samukelo Kabini Defender
7.23
33
Birk Risa
Birk Risa Defender
7.09
5
Eirik Hestad
Eirik Hestad Midfielder
7.62
24
Trent Kone Doherty
Trent Kone Doherty
Attacker76'
7.1
11
Caleb Zady Sery
Caleb Zady Sery Midfielder
7.4
8
Fredrik Gulbrandsen
Fredrik Gulbrandsen
Attacker46'
6.75
14
Jacob Christensen
Jacob Christensen Midfielder
7.02
15
Vebjørn Hoff
Vebjørn Hoff Midfielder
7.06
28
Viktor Bender
Viktor Bender
Midfielder76'
6.64
10
Emil Breivik
Emil Breivik (C) Attacker
8.06
20
Kristian Eriksen
Kristian Eriksen Attacker
7.09
19
Eirik Haugan
Eirik Haugan
Defender90+2'
Referee : Tore Hansen

Starting XI ▼

1
Leopold Wahlstedt
Leopold Wahlstedt Goalkeeper
6.39
3
Tobias Solheim Dahl
Tobias Solheim Dahl Defender
6.64
4
Mikkel Konradsen Ceide
Mikkel Konradsen Ceide Defender
6.66
25
Johan Johanessen Bakke
Johan Johanessen Bakke
Midfielder77'
6.41
5
Håkon Volden
Håkon Volden Defender
6.83
16
Aslak Witry
Aslak Witry Defender
6.48
17
Mads Bomholt
Mads Bomholt Midfielder
6.45
22
Jonas Svensson
Jonas Svensson (C) Midfielder
6.77
8
Iver Fossum
Iver Fossum
Midfielder77'
6.58
29
David Duris
David Duris Midfielder
6.16
19
Adrian Pereira
Adrian Pereira
Defender60'
6.21
35
Emil Konradsen Ceide
Emil Konradsen Ceide Midfielder
6.32
9
Dino Islamovic
Dino Islamovic Attacker
5.93
18
Amin Chiakha
Amin Chiakha Attacker
6.12

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Isak Helstad Amundsen → Halldor Stenevik
8th Substitution
90+4'
Event
Eirik Haugan → Kristian Eriksen
7th Substitution
90+2'
77'
Event
Johan Johanessen Bakke → Mikkel Konradsen Ceide
5th Substitution
77'
Event
Iver Fossum → Jonas Svensson
6th Substitution
Event
Viktor Bender  → Vebjørn Hoff
3rd Substitution
76'
Event
Trent Kone Doherty → Eirik Hestad
4th Substitution
76'
73'
Event
Amin Chiakha
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
60'
Event
6th Yellowcard
60'
Event
David Duris
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
60'
Event
Adrian Pereira → David Duris
2nd Substitution
Event
Eirik Hestad
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
57'
Event
Fredrik Gulbrandsen → Caleb Zady Sery
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
45+3'
Event
Jonas Svensson
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Eirik Hestad
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
33'
Event
Emil Breivik
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
31'
5'
Event
Aslak Witry
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Molde exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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