Molde vs Lillestrøm Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2026 Eliteserien, Norway

Aker Stadion Mon, 6 Apr - 3:00 PM

Eliteserien

Molde Molde

Lillestrøm Lillestrøm

Full Time Mon, 6 Apr 3:00 PM

Round 3 Regular Season

Thomas Lehne Olsen - 49'

CONTEXT

The match between Molde and Lillestrøm has finished, with Lillestrøm securing a 1-0 away victory. After a tightly contested first half left the teams even at 0-0 at the break, the visitors found the decisive breakthrough in the second half. This outcome represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations. Molde entered the fixture as the stronger side and the favorites, holding a 43.7% probability of winning compared to Lillestrøm's 31.6% chance, with a draw set at 24.7%. Consequently, the final result was not aligned with the pre-match market, as Lillestrøm defied the odds to take home the win. Despite the loss, Molde heavily dominated the ball with 61% possession, leaving Lillestrøm to operate with just 39%. Because expected goals (xG) data is unavailable for this fixture, it cannot be determined if the outcome was consistent with the underlying chance quality. However, the overall efficiency shift for the game was in line with expectations. Finally, the match concluded without any red cards being issued, meaning neither side was forced to adjust to a numerical disadvantage on the pitch.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Lillestrøm showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
Event impact: No major event distortion.
Red card distortion: None.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

S. Sinnes

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

J. Valstadsve

1st Assistant

J. Alnes Dyb

2nd Assistant

T. Halsen

4th Official

M. Falk

H. Ødegaard

1.5

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

19 - 10 - 7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Molde

43.7%

Draw

24.72%

Lillestrøm

31.58%

Team Power Ranking

63.15

46.79

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Molde

Lillestrøm

Power Score

63.15

46.79

League Position

Global Rank

370

677

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Molde — Opponent-weighted form score

Lillestrøm — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Molde Lillestrøm

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Molde

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Lillestrøm

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Molde ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Lillestrøm

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

25.57

45.90

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

45.90

25.57

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Molde -2.08 Efficiency Index

Lillestrøm +2.08 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Molde

Lillestrøm

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Molde ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Lillestrøm

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Molde Lillestrøm

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Molde Lillestrøm

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Molde

Lillestrøm

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Molde

Lillestrøm

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Molde Lillestrøm

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Molde Lillestrøm

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Molde

Lillestrøm

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 36 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Molde Molde Home

36 matches

Lillestrøm Lillestrøm Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

+22

Goal Difference

-22

Data last updated: 2026-04-07T00:04:01+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2

Match Formation 4-1-4-1

1 M. Juhl Kikkenborg

18 H. Østervold Stenevik

4 S. Hansen

33 B. Risa

25 M. Linnes

5 E. Hestad

15 V. Hoff

14 J. Christensen

11 C. Zady Sery

9 W. Abdulai

10 E. Breivik

12 P. Dahlberg

3 S. Ottesen

23 U. Yttergård Jenssen

5 S. Foss

2 L. Ranger

29 Y. Ibrahimaj

20 V. António Félix

17 E. Bugale Kitolano

8 M. Karlsbakk

15 S. Drammeh

10 T. Lehne Olsen

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 06, 2026, 03:00 PM

Competition :

2026 Eliteserien, Norway · Round 3 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Aker Stadion

Capacity :

11249

Pitch Surface :

Artificial turf

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Jørgen Rønning Valstadsve

Jim André Alnes Dyb

Torgeir Halsen

Svein Tore Sinnes

Statistics

Possession

Molde

59%

Lillestrøm

41%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1

3 Big Chances Created 2

8 Shots 11

72 Dangerous attacks 38

61 Possession 39

6 Corners 4

14 Free kicks 22

1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

61 Ball Safe 66

2 Injuries 2

8 Goal Attempts 10

21 Dribble Attempts 13

43 Successful Dribbles Percentage 15

9 Goal Kicks 13

19 Throwins 15

9 Successful Dribbles 2

0 Assists 1

5 Substitutions 4

Attacking

3 Big Chances Missed 1

139 Attacks 84

1 Counter Attacks 2

Possession

58 Successful Long Passes Percentage 41

53 Long Passes 59

31 Successful Long Passes 24

487 Successful Passes 291

565 Passes 376

86 Successful Passes Percentage 77

7 Key Passes 15

Defensive

47 Duels Won 51

19 Tackles 19

16 Interceptions 8

2 Saves 3

Build-up

7 Accurate Crosses 3

28 Total Crosses 7

Discipline

20 Fouls 12

2 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Svein Tore Sinnes

Manager ▼

M. Falk Coach

Starting XI ▼

Mads Kikkenborg Goalkeeper

S. Hansen Defender

Halldor Stenevik Defender

Martin Linnes Defender

Fredrik Gulbrandsen

Attacker66'

Birk Risa Defender

Eirik Hestad Midfielder

Blerton Isufi

Midfielder80'

Caleb Zady Sery Midfielder

Trent Kone Doherty

Attacker67'

Jacob Christensen Midfielder

Viktor Bender

Midfielder46'

Vebjørn Hoff Midfielder

Jalal Abdullai Attacker

Emil Breivik Attacker

Substitutes ▼

Viktor Bender

Midfielder46'

Fredrik Gulbrandsen

Attacker66'

Trent Kone Doherty

Attacker67'

Blerton Isufi

Midfielder80'

Eirik Haugan

Defender89'

Bench ▼

Albert Posiadala Goalkeeper

Daniel Nakken Defender

Sondre Granaas Midfielder

Jonathan Heggem Fugelsnes Attacker

Referee : Svein Tore Sinnes