Modena vs Juve Stabia Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Alberto Braglia Yesterday - 4:45 PM
Serie B
Modena MOD
0 Winner 1
Juve Stabia JUV
Full Time Yesterday 4:45 PM
Promotion Play-offs - Qualifying Round
|
Goal
Kevin Zeroli - 86'

CONTEXT

Modena hosted Juve Stabia in a Serie C encounter that ended 0-1 in favor of the visitors. The halftime score stood at 0-0, reflecting a balanced opening period despite Juve Stabia's higher possession of 59% compared to Modena's 41%. Identified as the stronger team beforehand, Juve Stabia capitalized on their territorial advantage in the second half to secure the lone goal. No red cards disrupted play, and the match featured no significant second-half adjustments. This outcome displayed minimal structural deviation of 3.9% aligned with Juve Stabia's favor, maintaining efficiency in line with expectations. Absence of xG data limits performance metrics, but possession dominance correlated with the result.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Structural deviation measured minimal at 3.9%, favoring Juve Stabia.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unassessable due to unavailable xG data.
  • Market alignment: Result fully aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated without data.
  • Event impact: No events or second-half adjustments altered the match flow.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards issued, causing zero distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

F. Fourneau

Italy 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

League averages

Serie B Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 27.6
Yellow cards / match 4.05
Red cards / match 0.3
Penalties / match 0.29
Modena A. Sottil
A. Sottil
VS
Juve Stabia I. Abate
I. Abate
1.15
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.26
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Avellino Rank: 53 L
Reggiana Rank: 47 W
Monza Rank: 66 L
Frosinone Rank: 69 L
Catanzaro Rank: 61 D
Südtirol Rank: 52 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Südtirol Rank: 51 D
Frosinone Rank: 67 L
Pescara Rank: 48 D
Catanzaro Rank: 61 D
Cesena Rank: 52 W
Venezia Rank: 71 L
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 2 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Modena
0.19%
Draw
3.73%
Away Juve Stabia
96.07%

Movement

Changes since opening
Modena
0%
Draw
-2.68%
Juve Stabia
+2.68%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
56.26
57.35
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Modena
Juve Stabia
Power Score
56.26
57.35
League Position
6
7
Global Rank
617
580

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Modena — Opponent-weighted form score
Juve Stabia — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Modena Juve Stabia

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Modena

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Juve Stabia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Modena ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Juve Stabia
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
36.59
13.73
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
13.73
36.59
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Modena +2.18 Efficiency Index
vs
Juve Stabia -2.18 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Modena
Juve Stabia
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Modena ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Juve Stabia
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Modena Juve Stabia
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Modena Juve Stabia
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Modena
Juve Stabia
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Modena
vs
Juve Stabia
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Modena Juve Stabia
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Modena 0.33
Juve Stabia 0.32
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Modena Juve Stabia
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Modena 0.05
Juve Stabia 0.00
Modena
Juve Stabia
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • MOD had peak pressure around 23'.
  • MOD started the game with stronger pressure.
MOD Pressure JUV Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: MOD reached the top pressure at 23' (54.53).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 10 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Modena MOD Home
10 matches
Juve Stabia JUV Away
Match Record
6
Wins
2
2
Draws
2
2
Losses
6
Goals
20
Goals Scored
9
9
Goals Conceded
20
+11
Goal Difference
-11

Data last updated: 2026-05-13T00:01:41+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-1-1
Match Formation 3-5-1-1
Pitch
M. Pezzolato
Italy
22 M. Pezzolato
D. Tonoli
Italy
77 D. Tonoli
S. Nador
Togo
19 S. Nador
B. Nieling
Netherlands
20 B. Nieling
F. Zampano
Italy
7 F. Zampano
Y. Massolin
France
17 Y. Massolin
S. Santoro
Substitution
Italy
8 S. Santoro
A. Sersanti
Substitution
Italy
5 A. Sersanti
M. Cotali
Substitution
Italy
29 M. Cotali
G. Ambrosino
Substitution
Italy
10 G. Ambrosino
M. De Luca
Substitution
Italy
99 M. De Luca
Pitch
A. Confente
Italy
1 A. Confente
M. Bellich
Italy
6 M. Bellich
A. Giorgini
Italy
33 A. Giorgini
S. Diakite
France
46 S. Diakite
A. Cacciamani
77 A. Cacciamani
O. Correia
France
29 O. Correia
G. Leone
Substitution
Italy
55 G. Leone
N. Mosti
Substitution
Italy
98 N. Mosti
L. Carissoni
Substitution
Italy
24 L. Carissoni
F. Maistro
Substitution
Italy
37 F. Maistro
A. Okoro
Substitution
Nigeria
90 A. Okoro

General Information

Date & Time :
May 12, 2026, 04:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Promotion Play-offs - Qualifying Round
Stadium :
Stadio Alberto Braglia
Capacity :
21092
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Francesco Fourneau

Statistics

Possession
MOD
45%
JUV
55%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
8 Shots 4
40 Dangerous attacks 22
41 Possession 59
2 Corners 4
13 Free kicks 18
3 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

40 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33
16 Throwins 19
10 Dribble Attempts 9
1 Hit Woodwork 0
7 Goal Kicks 7
4 Successful Dribbles 3
65 Ball Safe 79
0 Injuries 2
10 Goal Attempts 3
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

89 Attacks 95

Possession

41 Successful Long Passes Percentage 32
58 Long Passes 50
24 Successful Long Passes 16
76 Successful Passes Percentage 85
270 Successful Passes 444
357 Passes 522
7 Key Passes 3

Defensive

9 Interceptions 5
19 Tackles 8
0 Saves 3

Build-up

17 Total Crosses 14
6 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

18 Fouls 13
1 Offsides 4

Lineup

Referee : Francesco Fourneau

Starting XI ▼

22
Michele Pezzolato
Michele Pezzolato Goalkeeper
19
Steven Nador
Steven Nador Defender
20
Bryant Nieling
Bryant Nieling Defender
77
Daniel Tonoli
Daniel Tonoli Defender
5
Alessandro Sersanti
Alessandro Sersanti Midfielder
18
Niklas Pyyhtiä
Niklas Pyyhtiä
Midfielder68'
7
Francesco Zampano
Francesco Zampano Midfielder
8
Simone Santoro
Simone Santoro Midfielder
11
Pedro Mendes
Pedro Mendes
Attacker89'
17
Yanis Massolin
Yanis Massolin Midfielder
29
Matteo Cotali
Matteo Cotali Midfielder
2
Gady Beyuku
Gady Beyuku
Defender75'
10
Giuseppe Ambrosino
Giuseppe Ambrosino Attacker
92
Grégoire Defrel
Grégoire Defrel
Attacker89'
99
Manuel De Luca
Manuel De Luca Attacker
9
Ettore Gliozzi
Ettore Gliozzi
Attacker69'
Referee : Francesco Fourneau

Starting XI ▼

1
Alessandro Confente
Alessandro Confente Goalkeeper
6
Marco Bellich
Marco Bellich Defender
33
Andrea Giorgini
Andrea Giorgini Defender
46
Salim Diakité
Salim Diakité Defender
24
Lorenzo Carissoni
Lorenzo Carissoni Midfielder
2
Manuel Ricciardi
Manuel Ricciardi
Midfielder63'
29
Omar Correia
Omar Correia Midfielder
55
Giuseppe Leone
Giuseppe Leone Midfielder
8
Kevin Zeroli
Kevin Zeroli
Midfielder78'
77
Alessio Cacciamani
Alessio Cacciamani Midfielder
98
Nicola Mosti
Nicola Mosti Midfielder
10
Christian Pierobon
Christian Pierobon
Midfielder78'
37
Fabio Maistro
Fabio Maistro Attacker
7
Rareș Burnete
Rareș Burnete
Attacker63'
90
Alvin Okoro
Alvin Okoro Attacker
9
Alessandro Gabrielloni
Alessandro Gabrielloni
Attacker84'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Pedro Mendes → Simone Santoro
10th Substitution
89'
Event
Grégoire Defrel → Giuseppe Ambrosino
9th Substitution
89'
86'
Event
Kevin Zeroli
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
84'
Event
Alessandro Gabrielloni → Alvin Okoro
8th Substitution
78'
Event
Christian Pierobon → Nicola Mosti
6th Substitution
78'
Event
Kevin Zeroli → Giuseppe Leone
7th Substitution
Event
Gady Beyuku → Matteo Cotali
5th Substitution
75'
Event
Andrea Sottil
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
73'
Event
Ettore Gliozzi → Manuel De Luca
4th Substitution
69'
Event
Niklas Pyyhtiä → Alessandro Sersanti
3rd Substitution
68'
Event
Alessandro Sersanti
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
63'
63'
Event
Manuel Ricciardi → Lorenzo Carissoni
2nd Substitution
63'
Event
Rareș Burnete → Fabio Maistro
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Manuel De Luca
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
45'
Event
Steven Nador
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
14'
11'
Event
Salim Diakité
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Ettore Gliozzi takes a right-footed shot but misses.
89
Substitution Substitution
Pedro Manuel Lobo Peixoto Mineiro Mendes is substituted for Simone Santoro.
89
Update Update
Gregoire Defrel comes on for Giuseppe Ambrosino.
86
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Kevin Zeroli scores, making it 0-1.
86
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Zeroli takes a left-footed shot and scores.
84
Update Update
Alessandro Gabrielloni comes on for Alvin Okoro.
78
Substitution Substitution
Kevin Zeroli is substituted off for Giuseppe Leone.
78
Update Update
Christian Pierobon replaces Nicola Mosti.
76
Attempt Attempt
Yanis Massolin takes a right-footed shot but misses.
75
Update Update
Gady Beyuku is on, and Matteo Cotali is off.
73
Attempt Attempt
Alvin Okoro's left-footed shot is blocked.
71
Attempt Attempt
Ettore Gliozzi takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
71
Attempt Attempt
Ettore Gliozzi takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
71
Attempt Attempt
Niklas Pyyhtia takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
69
Update Update
Niklas Pyyhtia replaces Alessandro Sersanti.
68
Update Update
Ettore Gliozzi replaces Manuel De Luca.
63
Update Update
Rares Burnete comes on for Fabio Maistro.
63
Update Update
Manuel Ricciardi is on, and Lorenzo Carissoni is off.
63
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Alessandro Sersanti receives a yellow card.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Manuel De Luca receives a yellow card.
45
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Tonoli takes a right-footed shot but misses.
44
Attempt Attempt
Manuel De Luca takes a right-footed shot but misses.
42
Attempt Attempt
Alessio Cacciamani takes a right-footed shot but misses.
41
Attempt Attempt
Simone Santoro takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
41
Attempt Attempt
Alessio Cacciamani takes a right-footed shot but misses.
38
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Tonoli takes a right-footed shot but misses.
32
Attempt Attempt
Francesco Zampano takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
30
Attempt Attempt
Giuseppe Leone takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
29
Attempt Attempt
Giuseppe Leone's right-footed shot is blocked.
21
Attempt Attempt
Matteo Cotali takes a left-footed shot but misses.
18
Attempt Attempt
Fabio Maistro takes a right-footed shot but misses.
15
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Steven Folly Nador.
11
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Salim Diakite receives a yellow card.
6
Attempt Attempt
Giuseppe Ambrosino takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
6
Attempt Attempt
Simone Santoro takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.

CONCLUSION

Juve Stabia's 0-1 win over Modena validated their status as the stronger side, leveraging 59% possession to break a goalless halftime deadlock. Modena's 41% share limited their threats, allowing the visitors a controlled victory with minimal 3.9% deviation. Market alignment and steady efficiency underscore a predictable outcome, unmarred by red cards or tactical shifts. Without xG figures, shot efficiency remains opaque, yet the result fits possession patterns. Modena must enhance home conversion, while Juve Stabia builds on dominance for consistency.

Modena vs Juve Stabia preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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