Modena vs Frosinone Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Serie B, Italy

Stadio Alberto Braglia Sat, 18 Apr - 1:00 PM

Serie B

Modena MOD

Frosinone FRO

Full Time Sat, 18 Apr 1:00 PM

Round 35 Regular Season

Yanis Massolin - 41'

Farès Ghedjemis - 60', 52'

CONTEXT

In a gripping Serie B clash at Modena's home ground, the hosts surged ahead 1-0 by halftime, capitalizing on early momentum against Frosinone. Yet, the visitors, pegged as the stronger outfit, flipped the script in the second half with two clinical strikes, clinching a 2-1 triumph. Possession balanced perfectly at 50-50, underscoring a tactical stalemate that Frosinone broke through superior finishing. Absent xG metrics limit deeper chance analysis, but the 63.1% significant structural deviation tilted heavily toward Frosinone, whose performance aligned seamlessly with pre-match evaluations. No red cards disrupted play, and empty second-half adjustment logs suggest organic shifts propelled the comeback. Modena's failure to hold the lead exposed vulnerabilities, while Frosinone's resolve solidified their contender status in the promotion race.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Frosinone registered a significant 63.1% structural deviation exceeding expectations.
Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies stayed in line with projected norms throughout.
xG alignment: xG data absence prevents outcome consistency verification.
Market alignment: Result fully aligned with pre-match market projections.
xG expectations: Missing xG figures block evaluation against performance benchmarks.
Event impact: No second-half adjustments or knockout elements swayed the final score.
Red card distortion: Zero red cards maintained undistorted match equilibrium.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

G. Ayroldi

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

F. Cortese

2nd Assistant

G. Di Giacinto

1st Assistant

D. Kovacevic

4th Official

A. Sottil

M. Alvini

1.3

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

2.04

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

6 - 7 - 6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Modena

35.96%

Draw

27.11%

Frosinone

36.93%

Movement

Changes since opening

Modena

+35.77%

Draw

+22.53%

Frosinone

-58.3%

Team Power Ranking

23.67

33.13

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Modena

Frosinone

Power Score

23.67

33.13

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Modena — Opponent-weighted form score

Frosinone — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Modena Frosinone

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Modena

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Frosinone

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Modena ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Frosinone

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

40.80

45.30

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

45.30

40.80

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Modena -0.43 Efficiency Index

Frosinone +0.43 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Modena

Frosinone

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Modena ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Frosinone

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Modena Frosinone

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Modena Frosinone

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Modena

Frosinone

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Modena

Frosinone

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Modena Frosinone

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Modena Frosinone

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Modena

Frosinone

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

FRO had peak pressure around 32'.
MOD started the game with stronger pressure.

MOD Pressure FRO Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: FRO reached the top pressure at 32' (92.47).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 19 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Modena MOD Home

19 matches

Frosinone FRO Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

Goal Difference

-2

Data last updated: 2026-04-19T00:02:51+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2

Match Formation 4-3-3

22 M. Pezzolato

77 D. Tonoli

25 A. Dellavalle

20 B. Nieling

2 G. Beyuku Bowutankoyi

17 Y. Massolin

8 S. Santoro

18 N. Pyyhtiä

98 L. Zanimacchia

99 M. De Luca

10 G. Ambrosino

22 L. Palmisani

79 G. Bracaglia

2 G. Cittadini

30 I. Monterisi

20 A. Oyono Omva Torque

10 F. Gelli

16 M. Cichella

14 G. Calò

17 G. Kvernadze

9 A. Raimondo

7 F. Ghedjemis

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 18, 2026, 01:00 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 35 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Stadio Alberto Braglia

Capacity :

21092

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Giovanni Ayroldi

Francesco Cortese

Giuseppe Di Giacinto

David Kovacevic

Statistics

Possession

MOD

51%

FRO

49%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2

3 Big Chances Created 2

7 Shots 9

28 Dangerous attacks 53

50 Possession 50

2 Corners 6

16 Free kicks 16

3 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 5

14 Throwins 12

9 Successful Dribbles 5

53 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50

17 Dribble Attempts 10

14 Goal Attempts 13

11 Goal Kicks 12

0 Injuries 2

71 Ball Safe 56

1 Assists 1

Attacking

98 Attacks 88

3 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

352 Passes 329

71 Long Passes 42

81 Successful Passes Percentage 81

286 Successful Passes 268

16 Key Passes 16

55 Successful Long Passes Percentage 52

39 Successful Long Passes 22

Defensive

50 Duels Won 50

9 Tackles 13

7 Saves 6

6 Interceptions 7

Build-up

10 Total Crosses 24

3 Accurate Crosses 8

Discipline

16 Fouls 16

1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Giovanni Ayroldi

Manager ▼

A. Sottil Coach

Starting XI ▼

Michele Pezzolato Goalkeeper

6.89

Bryant Nieling Defender

6.99

Alessandro Dellavalle Defender

6.9

Daniel Tonoli Defender

7.16

Gady Beyuku Midfielder

6.57

Antonio Imputato

Attacker79'

6.6

Simone Santoro Midfielder

7.1

Yanis Massolin Midfielder

6.93

Edoardo Colpo

Attacker86'

6.45

Niklas Pyyhtiä Midfielder

6.77

Samuel Wiafe

Midfielder46'

6.63

Luca Zanimacchia Midfielder

6.92

Matteo Cotali

Defender79'

6.67

Giuseppe Ambrosino Attacker

6.83

Manuel De Luca Attacker

6.86

Pedro Mendes

Attacker66'

6.73

Substitutes ▼

Samuel Wiafe

Midfielder46'

6.63

Pedro Mendes

Attacker66'

6.73

Matteo Cotali

Defender79'

6.67

Antonio Imputato

Attacker79'

6.6

Edoardo Colpo

Attacker86'

6.45

Bench ▼

Abdullah Laidani Goalkeeper

Fabrizio Bagheria Goalkeeper

Steven Nador Defender

6.96

Davide Adorni Defender

6.85

Cristian Căuz Defender

6.46

Pietro Arnaboldi Midfielder

Referee : Giovanni Ayroldi