Mirandés vs Real Valladolid Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio Municipal de Anduva
Sun, 22 Mar - 3:15 PM
La Liga 2
Mirandés
MIR
2
1
1
Real Valladolid
REV
Full Time
Sun, 22 Mar
3:15 PM
Round 31 ·
Regular Season
Carlos Fernández - 84'
Unax del Cura - 45'
|
Juanmi Latasa - 23'
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation
Data last checked: Jul 11
CONTEXT
The match between Mirandés and Real Valladolid has finished, with Mirandés claiming a 1-0 full-time victory. This result stands in direct contrast to pre-match expectations, meaning the final outcome was not aligned with the betting market. Real Valladolid entered the fixture as the favorites with a 40.7% implied win probability, compared to a 30.2% chance
TL;DR
-
Structural deviation: Mirandés showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
-
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
-
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
-
Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
-
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
-
Event impact: No major event distortion.
-
Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️
Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
A. Muneta Beldarrain
VS
F. Escriba Segura
0.74
Avg Points / Game
(Last 100 Matches)
1.04
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Burgos
Rank: 64
L
Ceuta
Rank: 61
L
Huesca
Rank: 60
W
Las Palmas
Rank: 70
D
Racing Santander
Rank: 71
L
Málaga
Rank: 69
W
Avg Points / Game
(Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Leganés
Rank: 66
W
Málaga
Rank: 66
D
Huesca
Rank: 60
W
Sporting Gijón
Rank: 65
D
Granada
Rank: 67
L
Castellón
Rank: 66
L
1
Head to Head
(Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 3 - 7
7
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Mirandés
30.22%
Draw
29.05%
Real Valladolid
40.73%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
58.55
56.36
0 (Weakest)
100 (Strongest)
Metric
Mirandés
Real Valladolid
Power Score
58.55
56.36
League Position
22
18
Global Rank
530
464
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Mirandés
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Real Valladolid
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts)
Draw (1 pt)
Loss (0 pts)
Mirandés Real Valladolid
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
Mirandés
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Real Valladolid
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Mirandés
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Real Valladolid
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.89
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
33.09
Combined Efficiency Index
Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3
0
3
Mirandés
-0.12
Efficiency Index
vs
Real Valladolid
+0.12
Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Mirandés
Real Valladolid
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Mirandés
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Real Valladolid
Created
Set-piece attacking threat
Mirandés
Real Valladolid
Set-piece xG Share
Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
Goals per Match
Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xG)
Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
—
vs
—
Conceded
Set-piece defensive exposure
Mirandés
Real Valladolid
Set-piece xGA Share
Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
Conceded per Match
Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xGA)
Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
—
vs
—
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Mirandés
Real Valladolid
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Mirandés
MIR
Home
11
matches
Real Valladolid
REV
Away
Match Record
1
Wins
7
3
Draws
3
7
Losses
1
Goals
12
Goals Scored
21
21
Goals Conceded
12
-9
Goal Difference
+9
Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:24:45+00:00
STARTING XI
Mirandés
Real Valladolid
Match Formation
4-2-3-1
Match Formation
4-4-2
13 J. Palomares Pulpillo
27 T. Tamarit Tamarit
22 (C) J. Gutiérrez Martínez
15 J. Cabello Trujillo
3 F. Medrano Gastañaga
16 S. Clua Oya
18 R. Bauzà Sureda
A. Houary Jeddoub
#2968'
20 D. Sia
M. Pascual Castillo
#488'
28 F. Hernandez Coarasa
Pablo Pérez
#1767'
30 S. El Jebari El Hannouni
C. Fernández Luna
#1049'
48 U. del Cura Urra
1 Á. Aceves Catalina
C. Clerc Martínez
#1867'
27 I. Garriel Muñoz
5 R. Martinez Gil
15 P. Tomeo Félez
C. Michelin
#285'
14 I. Alejo Peralta
V. Erlien
#2587'
7 S. Canós Tenes
V. Meseguer Cavas
#885'
21 J. Ponceau
24 (C) S. Jurić
20 I. San José Cantalejo
9 J. Latasa Fernandez Layos
P. Gonzalez Carmona
#2246'
10 M. de Sousa Mendonça
General Information
📅
Date & Time :
Mar 22, 2026, 03:15 PM
🏆
Competition :
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 31 · Regular Season
🏟️
Stadium :
Estadio Municipal de Anduva
👥
Capacity :
5759
🌱
Pitch Surface :
Grass
🌤️
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
🧑⚖️
Referees :
Ricardo Landrove Lago
Carlos Muñiz Muñoz
Fernando Estela Bravo
Rubén Ruipérez Marín
Next Match
Mirandés
vs
Córdoba
League: La Liga 2
Kickoff: Fri, 27 Mar - 6:00 PM
Venue: Away
Real Valladolid
vs
Burgos
League: La Liga 2
Kickoff: Sat, 28 Mar - 3:15 PM
Venue: Home
Statistics
Possession
MIR
52%
REV
48%
Top Statistics
2
Goals
1
5
Big Chances Created
2
4
Shots
5
38
Dangerous attacks
31
53
Possession
47
8
Corners
4
16
Free kicks
11
1
Yellow Cards
2
Match Overview
10
Goal Kicks
8
2
Assists
1
17
Throwins
18
36
Successful Dribbles Percentage
54
11
Dribble Attempts
13
4
Successful Dribbles
7
52
Ball Safe
60
0
Injuries
1
10
Goal Attempts
8
4
Substitutions
5
Attacking
3
Big Chances Missed
1
98
Attacks
93
Possession
52
Successful Long Passes Percentage
32
343
Passes
307
76
Successful Passes Percentage
76
261
Successful Passes
234
50
Long Passes
50
26
Successful Long Passes
16
10
Key Passes
9
Defensive
4
Saves
5
11
Tackles
13
9
Interceptions
11
Build-up
6
Accurate Crosses
6
21
Total Crosses
19
Discipline
7
Fouls
13
1
Offsides
0
Lineup
Mirandés
Referee :
Carlos Muñiz Muñoz
Manager ▼
A. Muneta Beldarrain
Coach
Starting XI ▼
13
Juanpa Palomares
Goalkeeper
7.51 3
Fernando Medrano
Defender
6.83
15
Jorge Cabello
Defender
6.88 22
Juan Gutiérrez (C)
Defender
6.95 27
Toni Tamarit
Defender
7.45 16
Selvi Clua
Midfielder
6.52 18
Rafel Bauzà
Midfielder
7.49 20
Diego Sia
Midfielder
6.41 29Ali Houary
6.79Attacker68'
28
Javi Hernández
Midfielder
7.39 4Martín Pascual
Defender88'
30
Salim El Jebari
Midfielder
6.74 17Pablo Pérez
6.45Defender67'
48
Unax del Cura
Attacker
10Carlos Fernández
Attacker49'
Substitutes ▼
10Carlos Fernández
Attacker49'
17Pablo Pérez
6.45Defender67'
29Ali Houary
6.79Attacker68'
4Martín Pascual
Defender88'
Bench ▼
1
Igor Nikic
Goalkeeper
5
Adrián Pica
Defender
19
Nikola Maras
Defender
24
Iker Córdoba
Defender
6
Thiago Helguera
Midfielder
2
Hugo Novoa
Attacker
7
Iker Varela
Attacker
9
Siren Diao
Attacker
Real Valladolid
Referee :
Carlos Muñiz Muñoz
Manager ▼
F. Escriba Segura
Coach
Starting XI ▼
1
Álvaro Aceves
Goalkeeper
7.18 5
Ramón Martínez
Defender
6.02
14
Iván Alejo
Defender
6.61 2Clément Michelin
6.4Defender85'
15
Pablo Tomeo
Defender
6.3 27
Iván Garriel
Defender
6.62 18Carlos Clerc
6.78Defender67'
7
Sergi Canós
Midfielder
6.42 25Vegard Erlien
Attacker87'
20
Chuki
Midfielder
7.23 21
Julien Ponceau
Midfielder
6.63 8Víctor Meseguer
6.61Midfielder85'
24
Stanko Juric (C)
Midfielder
6.92 9
Juanmi Latasa
Attacker
10
Marcos André
Attacker
6.36 22Peter Federico
Attacker46'
6.72
Substitutes ▼
22Peter Federico
Attacker46'
6.72
18Carlos Clerc
6.78Defender67'
8Víctor Meseguer
6.61Midfielder85'
2Clément Michelin
6.4Defender85'
25Vegard Erlien
Attacker87'
Bench ▼
26
Álvaro de Pablo
Goalkeeper
23
Mohamed Jaouab
Defender
6
Mathis Lachuer
Midfielder
12
Ibrahim Alani
Midfielder
16
Mario Maroto
Midfielder
17
Stipe Biuk
Attacker
19
Lucas Sanseviero
Attacker
Events
2ND-HALF
90+9'
Peter Federico
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Martín Pascual → Javi Hernández
9th Substitution
88'
87'
Vegard Erlien → Sergi Canós
8th Substitution
85'
Víctor Meseguer → Julien Ponceau
6th Substitution
85'
Clément Michelin → Iván Alejo
7th Substitution
Carlos Fernández
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
84'
79'
Ramón Martínez
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Javi Hernández
Penalty disallowed
78'
Ali Houary → Diego Sia
5th Substitution
68'
Pablo Pérez → Salim El Jebari
4th Substitution
67'
67'
Carlos Clerc → Iván Garriel
3rd Substitution
Fernando Medrano
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
59'
Carlos Fernández → Unax del Cura
2nd Substitution
49'
46'
Peter Federico → Marcos André
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Unax del Cura
Header / 2nd Goal
45'
23'
Juanmi Latasa
Header / 1st Goal
CONCLUSION
Structural assessment: Mirandés exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.
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