Millwall vs Queens Park Rangers Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
The Den Sat, 18 Apr - 11:30 AM
Championship
Millwall MLW
2 Winner 0
Queens Park Rangers QPR
Full Time Sat, 18 Apr 11:30 AM
Round 43 Regular Season
Camiel Neghli - 17'
Derek Mazou-Sacko - 3'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Millwall claimed a 2-0 home win against Queens Park Rangers, surging to a 2-0 halftime lead and maintaining control despite holding only 43% possession to QPR's 57%. As the pre-identified stronger team, Millwall capitalized on early efficiency without red card interruptions or major second-half adjustments. The result reflected minimal structural deviation at 2.1%, with the outcome aligning seamlessly with market expectations. Lacking xG data, direct performance metrics against chance creation remain unassessable, but Millwall's defensive resilience and clinical finishing in the first half proved decisive. QPR's possession advantage failed to translate into threats, underscoring Millwall's tactical discipline in securing a clean sheet.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Millwall's victory exhibited minimal structural deviation of 2.1%.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment cannot be determined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Match outcome fully aligned with pre-match market positioning.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without relevant data.
  • Event impact: No events or second-half adjustments altered match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, eliminating any distortion effects.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

T. Nield

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

G. Byrne

1st Assistant

G. Kane

2nd Assistant

J. Oldham

4th Official

Millwall A. Neil
A. Neil
VS
Queens Park Rangers J. Stéphan
J. Stéphan
1.79
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.3
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
West Bromwich Albion Rank: D
Norwich City Rank: L
Middlesbrough Rank: W
Ipswich Town Rank: D
Blackburn Rovers Rank: L
Derby County Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bristol City Rank: D
Preston North End Rank: D
Watford Rank: W
Portsmouth Rank: W
Leicester City Rank: W
Birmingham City Rank: L
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 9 - 7
7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Millwall
97.89%
Draw
1.92%
Away Queens Park Rangers
0.2%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
30.16
24.12
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Millwall
Queens Park Rangers
Power Score
30.16
24.12
League Position
2
11
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

vs
Millwall Opponent-weighted form score
Queens Park Rangers Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Millwall Queens Park Rangers

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

vs

Millwall

Left / Center / Right
Opposition half density
vs season average

Queens Park Rangers

Left / Center / Right
Opposition half density
vs season average

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Millwall ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Queens Park Rangers
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.51
12.98
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
12.98
31.51
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Millwall +1.89 Efficiency Index
vs
Queens Park Rangers -1.89 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Millwall
Queens Park Rangers
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Millwall ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Queens Park Rangers
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Millwall Queens Park Rangers
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
vs
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Millwall Queens Park Rangers
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
vs
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Millwall
Queens Park Rangers
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Millwall
vs
Queens Park Rangers
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Millwall Queens Park Rangers
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Millwall Queens Park Rangers
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
Millwall
Queens Park Rangers
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • MLW had peak pressure around 29'.
  • MLW started the game with stronger pressure.
MLW Pressure QPR Pressure
Pressure Index: MLW reached the top pressure at 29' (88.61).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 23 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Millwall MLW Home
23 matches
Queens Park Rangers QPR Away
Match Record
7
Wins
7
9
Draws
9
7
Losses
7
Goals
28
Goals Scored
28
28
Goals Conceded
28
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-19T00:01:55+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
A. Patterson
England
13 A. Patterson
T. Crama
France
4 T. Crama
C. Taylor
England
6 C. Taylor
J. Cooper
England
5 J. Cooper
Z. Norton Sturge
England
3 Z. Norton Sturge
D. Mazou-Sacko
Substitution
France
49 D. Mazou-Sacko
C. De Norre
Substitution
Belgium
24 C. De Norre
F. Azeez
Substitution
England
11 F. Azeez
C. Neghli
Algeria
10 C. Neghli
T. Ballo
Substitution
Austria
7 T. Ballo
J. Coburn
Substitution
England
19 J. Coburn
Pitch
J. Walsh
England
13 J. Walsh
R. Norrington-Davies
Wales
18 R. Norrington-Davies
J. Clarke-Salter
England
6 J. Clarke-Salter
R. Edwards
England
37 R. Edwards
A. Mbengue
Substitution
Senegal
27 A. Mbengue
K. Morgan
Substitution
England
21 K. Morgan
J. Varane
Substitution
France
40 J. Varane
P. Smyth
Substitution
Northern Ireland
11 P. Smyth
H. Vale
England
20 H. Vale
K. Poku
Substitution
England
17 K. Poku
R. Kone
22 R. Kone

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 18, 2026, 11:30 AM
Competition :
2025/2026 Championship, England · Round 43 · Regular Season
Stadium :
The Den
Capacity :
20146
Attendance :
18934
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Tom Nield
George Byrne
Graham Kane
J. Oldham

Statistics

Possession
MLW
46%
QPR
54%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
1 Big Chances Created 0
2 Shots 3
51 Dangerous attacks 48
43 Possession 57
6 Corners 10
14 Free kicks 6
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

1 Injuries 0
27 Successful Headers 21
17 Successful Dribbles Percentage 63
12 Dribble Attempts 8
2 Successful Dribbles 5
12 Goal Kicks 7
23 Throwins 23
1 Hit Woodwork 0
1 Assists 0
10 Goal Attempts 6
84 Ball Safe 95
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 0
96 Attacks 113

Possession

306 Passes 413
59 Long Passes 46
51 Successful Long Passes Percentage 33
214 Successful Passes 314
70 Successful Passes Percentage 76
7 Key Passes 4
30 Successful Long Passes 15

Defensive

1 Saves 2
60 Duels Won 51
5 Interceptions 4
17 Tackles 19

Build-up

24 Total Crosses 25
4 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

6 Fouls 14
4 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Tom Nield

Starting XI

13
Anthony Patterson
Anthony Patterson Goalkeeper
6.67
3
Zak Sturge
Zak Sturge Defender
6.63
4
Tristan Crama
Tristan Crama Defender
7.08
5
Jake Cooper
Jake Cooper Defender
7.04
6
Caleb Taylor
Caleb Taylor Defender
7.23
7
Thierno Ballo
Thierno Ballo Midfielder
6.64
22
Tom Watson
Tom Watson
Attacker70'
6.46
10
Camiel Neghli
Camiel Neghli Midfielder
6.79
11
Femi Azeez
Femi Azeez Midfielder
7.27
25
Luke Cundle
Luke Cundle
Midfielder86'
6.81
24
Casper De Norre
Casper De Norre Midfielder
6.85
17
Macaulay Langstaff
Macaulay Langstaff
Attacker70'
6.54
49
Derek Mazou-Sacko
Derek Mazou-Sacko Midfielder
6.61
67
Barry Bannan
Barry Bannan
Midfielder90'
7.11
19
Josh Coburn
Josh Coburn Attacker
6.86
9
Mihailo Ivanović
Mihailo Ivanović
Attacker86'
6.82
Referee : Tom Nield

Starting XI

13
Joe Walsh
Joe Walsh Goalkeeper
6.65
6
Jake Clarke-Salter
Jake Clarke-Salter Defender
6.6
18
Rhys Norrington-Davies
Rhys Norrington-Davies Defender
5.21
27
Amadou Salif Mbengue
Amadou Salif Mbengue Defender
6.66
5
Steve Cook
Steve Cook
Defender46'
6.95
37
Ronnie Edwards
Ronnie Edwards Defender
6.6
11
Paul Patrick Smyth
Paul Patrick Smyth Midfielder
6.79
16
R. Burrell
R. Burrell
Attacker46'
6.84
17
Kwame Poku
Kwame Poku Midfielder
6.52
10
Ilias Chair
Ilias Chair
Midfielder60'
7.3
20
Harvey Vale
Harvey Vale Midfielder
6.9
21
Kieran Morgan
Kieran Morgan Midfielder
6.55
15
Isaac Hayden
Isaac Hayden
Midfielder46'
6.71
40
Jonathan Varane
Jonathan Varane Midfielder
6.79
24
Nicolas Madsen
Nicolas Madsen
Midfielder46'
7.15
22
Richard Kone
Richard Kone Attacker
6.82

Events

2ND-HALF
90+2'
Event
Isaac Hayden
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Barry Bannan Derek Mazou-Sacko
10th Substitution
90'
Event
Mihailo Ivanović Josh Coburn
9th Substitution
86'
Event
Luke Cundle Femi Azeez
8th Substitution
86'
Event
Macaulay Langstaff Casper De Norre
6th Substitution
70'
Event
Tom Watson Thierno Ballo
7th Substitution
70'
60'
Event
Ilias Chair Kwame Poku
5th Substitution
46'
Event
R. Burrell Paul Patrick Smyth
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Steve Cook Amadou Salif Mbengue
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Isaac Hayden Kieran Morgan
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Nicolas Madsen Jonathan Varane
4th Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Femi Azeez
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
34'
30'
Event
Amadou Salif Mbengue
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
19'
Event
Ronnie Edwards
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Camiel Neghli
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
17'
Event
Derek Mazou-Sacko
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
3'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Foul committed by Isaac Hayden against Queens Park Rangers.
90
Update Update
Rhys Norrington-Davies of Queens Park Rangers won a free kick in defense.
90
Update Update
Foul by Tom Watson of Millwall.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Millwall: Barry Bannan replaces Derek Mazou-Sacko.
90
Corner Corner
Nicolas Madsen from Queens Park Rangers attempts an attack with a right-footed shot from outside the box, but Anthony Patterson from Millwall saves it in the left corner. The assist came from Ronnie Edwards.
90
Update Update
Camiel Neghli from Millwall won a free kick in defense.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 5 minutes of added time.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with Millwall winning 2-0 against Queens Park Rangers.
89
Update Update
Offside called against Millwall. Mihailo Ivanovic is offside.
88
Update Update
Foul committed by Rhys Norrington-Davies for Queens Park Rangers.
86
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Millwall: Mihailo Ivanovic replaces Josh Coburn.
86
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Millwall: Luke Cundle replaces Femi Azeez.
85
Attempt Attempt
Tristan Crama from Millwall attempts a header from the center of the box, but it's saved in the top center of the goal.
85
Update Update
Camiel Neghli of Millwall won a free kick on the right wing.
79
Update Update
Foul committed by Rhys Norrington-Davies of Queens Park Rangers.
79
Update Update
Femi Azeez from Millwall won a free kick on the right wing.
77
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Queens Park Rangers after a concession by Camiel Neghli.
76
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Josh Coburn from Millwall takes a right-footed shot from a few meters out, but Joe Walsh from Queens Park Rangers saves it in the right corner. The assist came from Tristan Crama with a cross.
76
Update Update
Macaulay Langstaff of Millwall is flagged for offside.
71
Update Update
Foul committed by Steve Cook against Queens Park Rangers.
71
Update Update
Josh Coburn of Millwall won a free kick in defense.
71
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Derek Mazou-Sacko of Millwall.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Millwall: Macaulay Langstaff replaces Casper De Norre.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Millwall: Tom Watson replaces Thierno Ballo.
68
Update Update
Derek Mazou-Sacko from Millwall committed a foul.
68
Update Update
Harvey Vale of Queens Park Rangers won a free kick on the right wing.
67
Attempt Attempt
Ilias Chair from Queens Park Rangers had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box, but it went close and missed to the left. The assist was provided by Nicolas Madsen.
66
Attempt Attempt
Thierno Ballo's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. Tristan Crama provided the assist.
64
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Queens Park Rangers after a concession by Derek Mazou-Sacko.
63
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Queens Park Rangers after a concession by Caleb Taylor.
60
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Queens Park Rangers: Ilias Chair replaces Kwame Poku.
57
Update Update
Femi Azeez of Millwall is called offside.
56
Update Update
Offside called against Millwall. Josh Coburn is offside.
55
Corner Corner
Rumarn Burrell of Queens Park Rangers missed a chance, heading the ball from the center of the box after a corner.
54
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Queens Park Rangers after Zak Sturge concedes.
53
Update Update
Steve Cook from Queens Park Rangers won a free kick in defense.
53
Update Update
Foul committed by Josh Coburn for Millwall.
47
Update Update
Foul committed by Kwame Poku of Queens Park Rangers.
47
Update Update
Thierno Ballo from Millwall won a free kick in defense.
46
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Queens Park Rangers after Jake Cooper concedes.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Queens Park Rangers: Isaac Hayden replaces Kieran Morgan.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Queens Park Rangers: Rumarn Burrell replaces Paul Smyth.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Queens Park Rangers after Zak Sturge concedes.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Millwall leading 2-0 against Queens Park Rangers.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 1 minute of added time.
45
Corner Corner
Missed chance. Paul Smyth from Queens Park Rangers shot with his left foot from the center of the box, but it went high and wide to the left after a corner.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Queens Park Rangers: Rumarn Burrell replaces Paul Smyth.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at Millwall 2, Queens Park Rangers 0.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Queens Park Rangers: Nicolas Madsen replaces Jonathan Varane.
43
Update Update
Offside called against Queens Park Rangers. Richard Kone is in an offside position.
42
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Queens Park Rangers after a concession by Derek Mazou-Sacko.
38
Attempt Attempt
Zak Sturge of Millwall had a missed chance, shooting with his left foot from a difficult position on the left, but it went just wide to the left. Thierno Ballo provided the assist.
37
Update Update
Foul committed by Jonathan Varane against Queens Park Rangers.
37
Update Update
Thierno Ballo of Millwall won a free kick in defense.
36
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Queens Park Rangers after Thierno Ballo concedes.
34
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Femi Azeez of Millwall receives a yellow card for a foul.
34
Update Update
Femi Azeez commits a foul for Millwall.
34
Update Update
Rhys Norrington-Davies of Queens Park Rangers won a free kick in defense.
30
Update Update
Zak Sturge from Millwall won a free kick on the left wing.
30
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Amadou Mbengue of Queens Park Rangers receives a yellow card for a foul.
30
Update Update
Foul committed by Amadou Mbengue for Queens Park Rangers.
29
Update Update
Richard Kone of Queens Park Rangers won a free kick in defense.
29
Update Update
Femi Azeez commits a foul against Millwall.
28
Update Update
Zak Sturge from Millwall won a free kick on the left wing.
28
Update Update
Foul committed by Amadou Mbengue of Queens Park Rangers.
27
Update Update
Thierno Ballo from Millwall won a free kick in defense.
27
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Caleb Taylor from Millwall takes a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it's saved.
27
Update Update
Foul committed by Jonathan Varane against Queens Park Rangers.
26
Corner Corner
Millwall wins a corner after Joe Walsh concedes.
26
Attempt Attempt
Femi Azeez's left-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked. The assist came from Derek Mazou-Sacko, who headed the ball.
26
Update Update
New attacking attempt. Josh Coburn of Millwall heads the ball from inside the six-yard box on the left side, but Joe Walsh of Queens Park Rangers saves it in the top center of the goal. The assist comes from Femi Azeez, who provided the cross.
25
Update Update
Foul committed by Richard Kone of Queens Park Rangers.
25
Update Update
Jake Cooper from Millwall won a free kick in defense.
24
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Camiel Neghli from Millwall takes a right-footed shot from the center of the box that is very close to the goal.
23
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Queens Park Rangers after Zak Sturge concedes.
22
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Queens Park Rangers after a concession by Thierno Ballo.
21
Update Update
Foul committed by Jake Cooper of Millwall.
21
Update Update
Harvey Vale of Queens Park Rangers won a free kick in an attacking position.
19
Update Update
Foul committed by Ronnie Edwards for Queens Park Rangers.
19
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ronnie Edwards from Queens Park Rangers receives a yellow card for a foul.
19
Update Update
Josh Coburn from Millwall won a free kick in an attacking position.
17
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Millwall leads 2-0 against Queens Park Rangers. Camiel Neghli scores for Millwall with a left-footed shot from the right side of the box into the left corner, assisted by Derek Mazou-Sacko.
15
Update Update
Tristan Crama from Millwall misses a chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box, but the ball goes high.
14
Update Update
Caleb Taylor of Millwall won a free kick in defense.
14
Update Update
Foul committed by Richard Kone of Queens Park Rangers.
13
Update Update
Casper De Norre from Millwall won a free kick in defense.
13
Update Update
Foul committed by Kwame Poku of Queens Park Rangers.
11
Corner Corner
Millwall wins a corner after Joe Walsh concedes.
10
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Millwall after a concession by Jonathan Varane.
10
Corner Corner
Millwall wins a corner after Jonathan Varane concedes.
9
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Paul Smyth from Queens Park Rangers shot with his right foot from outside the box.
7
Update Update
Tristan Crama from Millwall misses a header from the center of the box, sending the ball high. The assist came from Casper De Norre's cross.
5
Update Update
Foul committed by Richard Kone of Queens Park Rangers.
5
Update Update
Camiel Neghli from Millwall won a free kick in defense.
3
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Millwall leads 1-0 against Queens Park Rangers. Derek Mazou-Sacko scores for Millwall with a left-footed shot from outside the box into the left corner after a corner kick.
2
Corner Corner
Millwall wins a corner after Rhys Norrington-Davies concedes.
1
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Millwall after Amadou Mbengue concedes.

CONCLUSION

Millwall's 2-0 triumph validated their status as the stronger side, overcoming lower possession through first-half dominance and sustained defensive organization. The minimal deviation and market alignment highlight a predictable, efficient performance absent disruptive factors like red cards. Without xG metrics, deeper chance quality insights are limited, yet the clean sheet and early goals affirm tactical superiority. QPR's possession edge yielded no breakthroughs, reinforcing Millwall's control in a composed victory.

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