Millwall vs Hull City Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
The Den Mon, 11 May - 7:00 PM
Championship
Millwall MLW
0 Winner 2
Hull City HUL
Full Time Mon, 11 May 7:00 PM
Semi Finals Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 0 - 2
|
Goal
Joe Gelhardt - 79'
Mohamed Belloumi - 64'

CONTEXT

In the second leg of a two-legged knockout tie, Millwall hosted Hull City trailing 0-2 on aggregate after a goalless first leg in Hull three days prior. Billed as the stronger side, Millwall controlled 66% possession against Hull's 34% but failed to score, losing 0-2 to bow out 0-2 overall. The first half ended 0-0, with both teams cautious. Hull City then netted twice post-interval, exploiting Millwall's wastefulness. No red cards disrupted play, and second-half adjustments were minimal. Millwall's dominance in territory yielded no rewards, underscoring Hull's efficiency on the counter. This upset sees Hull advance, defying Millwall's favoritism.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Hull City secured the win with minimal structural deviation of 2.1%.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiencies shifted in line with pre-match expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Result aligned fully with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without data.
  • Event impact: Hull City's two second-half goals determined the 0-2 outcome.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, eliminating any distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

S. Barrott

England 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

J. Mainwaring

1st Assistant

England

W. Smith

2nd Assistant

England

M. Donohue

4th Official

England

League averages

Championship Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 21.19
Yellow cards / match 3.86
Red cards / match 0.07
Penalties / match 0.24
Millwall A. Neil
A. Neil
VS
Hull City S. Jakirović
S. Jakirović
1.84
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.53
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hull City Rank: 71 D
Oxford United Rank: 65 W
Leicester City Rank: 66 D
Stoke City Rank: 66 W
Queens Park Rangers Rank: 67 W
West Bromwich Albion Rank: 68 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Millwall Rank: 76 D
Norwich City Rank: 73 W
Charlton Athletic Rank: 65 L
Leicester City Rank: 66 D
Birmingham City Rank: 69 D
Sheffield United Rank: 71 L
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 9 - 10
10

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Millwall
0.2%
Draw
1.92%
Away Hull City
97.89%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
74.89
72.02
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Millwall
Hull City
Power Score
74.89
72.02
League Position
3
6
Global Rank
119
166

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Millwall — Opponent-weighted form score
Hull City — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Millwall Hull City

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Millwall

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Hull City

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Millwall ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Hull City
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
19.17
46.18
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
46.18
19.17
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Millwall -2.73 Efficiency Index
vs
Hull City +2.73 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Millwall
Hull City
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Millwall ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Hull City
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Millwall Hull City
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Millwall Hull City
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Millwall
Hull City
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Millwall
vs
Hull City
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Millwall Hull City
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Millwall 0.19
Hull City 0.41
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Millwall Hull City
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Millwall 0.06
Hull City 0.00
Millwall
Hull City
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • MLW had peak pressure around 22'.
  • HUL started the game with stronger pressure.
MLW Pressure HUL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: MLW reached the top pressure at 22' (99.25).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 27 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Millwall MLW Home
27 matches
Hull City HUL Away
Match Record
8
Wins
10
9
Draws
9
10
Losses
8
Goals
28
Goals Scored
30
30
Goals Conceded
28
-2
Goal Difference
+2

Data last updated: 2026-05-12T00:03:49+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
A. Patterson
England
13 A. Patterson
R. Leonard
England
18 R. Leonard
T. Crama
France
4 T. Crama
J. Cooper
England
5 J. Cooper
Z. Norton Sturge
Substitution
England
3 Z. Norton Sturge
C. De Norre
Substitution
Belgium
24 C. De Norre
D. Mazou-Sacko
Substitution
France
49 D. Mazou-Sacko
F. Azeez
England
11 F. Azeez
C. Neghli
Algeria
10 C. Neghli
T. Ballo
Substitution
Austria
7 T. Ballo
J. Coburn
Substitution
England
19 J. Coburn
Pitch
I. Pandur
Croatia
1 I. Pandur
C. Hughes
England
4 C. Hughes
J. Egan
Republic of Ireland
15 J. Egan
O. Ibidapo Ajayi
Nigeria
6 O. Ibidapo Ajayi
R. Giles
Substitution
England
3 R. Giles
M. Crooks
England
25 M. Crooks
R. Slater
Substitution
England
27 R. Slater
L. Coyle
England
2 L. Coyle
L. Millar
Substitution
Canada
7 L. Millar
K. Joseph
Substitution
Scotland
22 K. Joseph
O. McBurnie
Substitution
Scotland
9 O. McBurnie

General Information

Date & Time :
May 11, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Championship, England · Semi Finals · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 0 - 2
Stadium :
The Den
Capacity :
20146
Attendance :
17768
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Samuel Barrott
James Mainwaring
Wade Smith
Matt Donohue

Statistics

Possession
MLW
61%
HUL
39%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 3
5 Shots 7
53 Dangerous attacks 34
66 Possession 34
6 Corners 8
9 Free kicks 10
1 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

79 Ball Safe 62
5 Successful Dribbles 5
5 Substitutions 5
0 Assists 2
24 Successful Headers 20
11 Dribble Attempts 10
9 Goal Kicks 10
25 Throwins 12
45 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
6 Goal Attempts 11
1 Injuries 1

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 3
120 Attacks 64

Possession

458 Passes 228
26 Successful Long Passes 19
78 Successful Passes Percentage 58
357 Successful Passes 132
70 Long Passes 60
37 Successful Long Passes Percentage 32
6 Key Passes 11

Defensive

11 Tackles 13
4 Interceptions 5
4 Saves 4
49 Duels Won 50

Build-up

7 Accurate Crosses 9
32 Total Crosses 21

Discipline

1 Offsides 0
10 Fouls 9

Lineup

Referee : Samuel Barrott

Starting XI ▼

13
Anthony Patterson
Anthony Patterson Goalkeeper
3
Zak Sturge
Zak Sturge Defender
14
Alfie Doughty
Alfie Doughty
Midfielder63'
4
Tristan Crama
Tristan Crama Defender
5
Jake Cooper
Jake Cooper Defender
18
Ryan Leonard
Ryan Leonard Defender
7
Thierno Ballo
Thierno Ballo Midfielder
9
Mihailo Ivanović
Mihailo Ivanović
Attacker57'
10
Camiel Neghli
Camiel Neghli Midfielder
11
Femi Azeez
Femi Azeez Midfielder
24
Casper De Norre
Casper De Norre Midfielder
67
Barry Bannan
Barry Bannan
Midfielder64'
49
Derek Mazou-Sacko
Derek Mazou-Sacko Midfielder
25
Luke Cundle
Luke Cundle
Midfielder85'
19
Josh Coburn
Josh Coburn Attacker
17
Macaulay Langstaff
Macaulay Langstaff
Attacker85'
Referee : Samuel Barrott

Starting XI ▼

1
Ivor Pandur
Ivor Pandur Goalkeeper
4
Charlie Hughes
Charlie Hughes Defender
6
Semi Ajayi
Semi Ajayi Defender
15
John Egan
John Egan Defender
2
Lewie Coyle
Lewie Coyle Midfielder
3
Ryan Giles
Ryan Giles Midfielder
37
Patrick James Coleman McNair
Patrick James Coleman McNair
Defender84'
25
Matt Crooks
Matt Crooks Midfielder
27
Regan Slater
Regan Slater Midfielder
5
John Lundstram
John Lundstram
Midfielder84'
7
Liam Millar
Liam Millar Attacker
21
Joe Gelhardt
Joe Gelhardt
Attacker78'
9
Oliver McBurnie
Oliver McBurnie Attacker
36
Lewis Koumas
Lewis Koumas
Attacker84'
22
Kyle Joseph
Kyle Joseph Attacker
10
Mohamed Belloumi
Mohamed Belloumi
Attacker45+2'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+5'
Event
Joe Gelhardt
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Femi Azeez
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
88'
Event
Macaulay Langstaff → Josh Coburn
10th Substitution
85'
Event
Luke Cundle → Derek Mazou-Sacko
9th Substitution
85'
84'
Event
Patrick James Coleman McNair → Ryan Giles
8th Substitution
84'
Event
John Lundstram → Regan Slater
7th Substitution
84'
Event
Lewis Koumas → Oliver McBurnie
6th Substitution
79'
Event
Joe Gelhardt
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
78'
Event
Joe Gelhardt → Liam Millar
5th Substitution
69'
Event
Mohamed Belloumi
Time wasting / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Barry Bannan → Casper De Norre
4th Substitution
64'
64'
Event
Mohamed Belloumi
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Alfie Doughty → Zak Sturge
3rd Substitution
63'
Event
Mihailo Ivanović → Thierno Ballo
2nd Substitution
57'
52'
Event
Charlie Hughes
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
45+2'
Event
Mohamed Belloumi → Kyle Joseph
1st Substitution
10'
Event
John Egan
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Louie Koumas takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Joe Gelhardt receives a yellow card.
88
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Femi Azeez receives a yellow card.
86
Attempt Attempt
Matty Crooks takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
86
Attempt Attempt
Alfie Doughty's right-footed shot is blocked.
85
Update Update
Luke James Cundle comes on for Derek Mazou Sacko.
85
Update Update
Macaulay Langstaff comes on for Josh Coburn.
84
Update Update
Patrick McNair replaces Ryan John Giles.
84
Update Update
Louie Koumas replaces Oliver McBurnie.
84
Update Update
John Lundstram comes on for Regan Slater.
79
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Joe Gelhardt scores to make it 0-2, assisted by Belloumi.
79
Attempt Attempt
Joe Gelhardt takes a left-footed shot and scores.
78
Update Update
Joe Gelhardt comes on for Liam Millar.
77
Attempt Attempt
Mihailo Ivanovic attempts a header but misses the shot.
71
Attempt Attempt
Regan Slater takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
69
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Belloumi.
64
Attempt Attempt
Belloumi takes a shot with his left foot and scores.
64
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Belloumi scores to make it 1-0, assisted by Matty Crooks.
64
Update Update
Barry Bannan is on, and Casper De Norre is off.
63
Update Update
Alfie Doughty is on, and Zak Sturge is off.
62
Attempt Attempt
John Egan takes a left-footed shot but misses.
57
Update Update
Mihailo Ivanovic is on, and Thierno Ballo is off.
52
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Charlie Hughes receives a yellow card.
48
Attempt Attempt
Oliver McBurnie takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
45
Update Update
Belloumi is on, and Kyle Joseph is off.
45
Attempt Attempt
Oliver McBurnie takes a right-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Oliver McBurnie takes a right-footed shot but misses.
36
Attempt Attempt
John Egan attempted a header but missed the shot.
35
Attempt Attempt
Derek Mazou Sacko takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
35
Attempt Attempt
Oliver McBurnie takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
33
Attempt Attempt
John Egan attempts a header but misses the shot.
23
Attempt Attempt
Camiel Neghli takes a left-footed shot but misses.
19
Attempt Attempt
Femi Azeez takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
19
Attempt Attempt
Femi Azeez takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
18
Attempt Attempt
Thierno Ballo takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
18
Attempt Attempt
Camiel Neghli takes a left-footed shot but misses.
18
Attempt Attempt
Thierno Ballo takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
16
Attempt Attempt
Charlie Hughes attempted a header but missed the shot.
10
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
John Egan receives a yellow card.
9
Attempt Attempt
Charlie Hughes takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
3
Attempt Attempt
John Egan attempted a header but missed the shot.

CONCLUSION

Hull City's second-half strikes propelled them to a 0-2 victory and aggregate triumph, despite Millwall's 66% possession edge and stronger billing. The Tigers' clinical counters contrasted Millwall's profligacy, turning a level halftime into decisive progression. With no red cards or major adjustments, the minimal 2.1% deviation and market alignment affirm Hull's merit. Lacking xG, the eye test reveals Hull's resilience away, punishing Millwall's failure to convert control into goals in this high-stakes leg two.

Millwall vs Hull City preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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