Metz vs Nantes Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Ligue 1, France

Stade Saint-Symphorien Sun, 5 Apr - 3:15 PM

Ligue 1

Metz MTZ

0 – 0

Nantes NAN

Full Time Sun, 5 Apr 3:15 PM

Round 28 Regular Season

Tylel Tati 39'

CONTEXT

The match between Metz and Nantes has finished in a 0-0 draw, with the sides having also been scoreless at half-time. Going into the fixture, Nantes were the slight favorites with a 37.4% implied probability of victory. A draw was viewed as the least likely outcome at 28.8%, while Metz held a 33.9% chance of a home win. Consequently, this stalemate represented a significant deviation from pre-match expectations for Nantes, and the final outcome was not aligned with the pre-match market. Expected goals (xG) data was not available for this encounter, making it impossible to evaluate if the outcome was consistent with the quality of chances created. However, the flow of the game was heavily dictated by Metz, who controlled 66% of the possession compared to Nantes' 34%. Despite this territorial dominance, the attacking efficiency shift for both sides remained in line with standard expectations as neither team could break the deadlock. The match's dynamics were notably altered by a red card shown to Nantes. This dismissal caused a severe red card distortion on the pitch, allowing the hosts to dominate the ball. Despite the man advantage, Metz failed to capitalize.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Nantes showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

J. Brisard

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Auger

1st Assistant

A. Drouet

2nd Assistant

E. Barenton

4th Official

B. Tavenot

V. Halilhodžić

0.6

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

0.58

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

6 - 8 - 3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Metz

33.86%

Draw

28.75%

Nantes

37.4%

Team Power Ranking

53.31

64.04

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Metz

Nantes

Power Score

53.31

64.04

League Position

Global Rank

398

337

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Metz — Opponent-weighted form score

Nantes — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Metz Nantes

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Metz

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Nantes

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Metz ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Nantes

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

33.33

21.03

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

21.03

33.33

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Metz +1.20 Efficiency Index

Nantes -1.20 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Metz

Nantes

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Metz ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Nantes

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Metz Nantes

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Metz Nantes

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Metz

Nantes

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Metz

Nantes

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Metz Nantes

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Metz Nantes

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Metz

Nantes

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 17 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Metz MTZ Home

17 matches

Nantes NAN Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

Goal Difference

-6

Data last updated: 2026-04-06T00:04:24+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1

Match Formation 4-1-4-1

61 P. Sy

39 K. Kouao

38 S. Sané

4 U. Mboula

2 M. Colin

5 J. Gbamin

20 J. Deminguet

70 B. Sarr

10 G. Hein

7 H. Tsitaishvili

30 H. Diallo

1 A. Lopes

3 N. Cozza

78 T. Tati

6 C. Collins Awaziem

24 F. Guilbert

13 F. Coquelin

10 M. Abline

8 J. Lepenant

21 M. Kaba

18 F. Centonze

37 I. Kpene Ganago

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 05, 2026, 03:15 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Ligue 1, France · Round 28 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Stade Saint-Symphorien

Capacity :

26661

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Jérôme Brisard

Alexis Auger

Aurélien Drouet

Edgar Barenton

Statistics

Possession

MTZ

64%

NAN

36%

Top Statistics

3 Big Chances Created 0

1 Shots 5

60 Dangerous attacks 23

66 Possession 34

6 Corners 3

10 Free kicks 14

2 Yellow Cards 1

0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

15 Goal Attempts 5

14 Throwins 18

10 Successful Headers 5

13 Dribble Attempts 5

13 Successful Dribbles 5

91 Ball Safe 105

2 Injuries 0

72 Successful Dribbles Percentage 42

5 Goal Kicks 9

4 Substitutions 5

Attacking

122 Attacks 63

Possession

12 Key Passes 5

15 Long Passes 13

497 Successful Passes 225

88 Successful Passes Percentage 78

567 Passes 292

Defensive

22 Tackles 17

2 Saves 6

7 Interceptions 13

55 Duels Won 41

Build-up

22 Total Crosses 10

Discipline

6 Offsides 1

14 Fouls 10

Lineup

Referee : Jérôme Brisard

Manager ▼

B. Tavenot Coach

Starting XI ▼

Pape Sy Goalkeeper

Maxime Colin Defender

Nathan Mbala

Attacker63'

Michel Mboula Defender

Believe Munongo

Midfielder63'

Sadibou Sané Defender

Koffi Kouao Defender

Jean-Philippe Gbamin Midfielder

Giorgi Tsitaishvili Midfielder

Gauthier Hein Midfielder

Jessy Deminguet Midfielder

Giorgi Abuashvili

Attacker87'

Bouna Sarr Midfielder

Lucas Michal

Attacker80'

Habib Diallo Attacker

Substitutes ▼

Nathan Mbala

Attacker63'

Believe Munongo

Midfielder63'

Lucas Michal

Attacker80'

Giorgi Abuashvili

Attacker87'

Bench ▼

Jonathan Fischer Goalkeeper

Moustapha Diop Defender

Terry Yegbe Defender

Fodé Ballo-Touré Defender

Giorgi Kvilitaia Attacker

Referee : Jérôme Brisard