Metz vs Monaco Prediction, Preview and Stats

France flag 2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Stade Saint-Symphorien Sat, 2 May - 5:00 PM
Ligue 1
Metz MTZ
1 Winner 2
Monaco ASM
Full Time Sat, 2 May 5:00 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Jessy Deminguet - 49'
Goal
|
Goal
Ansu Fati - 90+1'
Folarin Balogun - 61'

CONTEXT

Monaco claimed a 2-1 win against Metz in a match that remained goalless at halftime with a 0-0 scoreline. The second half saw all the action, as Metz briefly took the lead before Monaco mounted a comeback to secure victory. Despite enjoying just 34% possession, the home side showed resilience, but Monaco's superior control with 66% possession translated into crucial goals. No red cards disrupted play, allowing both teams to field full squads throughout. Identified as the stronger side pre-match, Monaco delivered on expectations in a tightly contested affair. The result reflects Monaco's efficiency in converting chances amid Metz's defensive efforts. Possession disparity highlighted Monaco's dominance, yet Metz's single goal kept the game competitive until the end.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Result exhibited minimal structural deviation of 5.3% in Monaco's favor.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiencies stayed in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market positioning.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated without data.
  • Event impact: No notable second-half adjustments or events altered dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion from dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

R. Buquet

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

V. Evrard

2nd Assistant

A. Petit

4th Official

E. Finjean

1st Assistant

Metz B. Tavenot
B. Tavenot
VS
Monaco S. Pocognoli
S. Pocognoli
0.52
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.55
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Le Havre Rank: 67 D
Paris Rank: 70 L
Olympique Marseille Rank: 81 L
Nantes Rank: 67 D
Rennes Rank: 80 D
Toulouse Rank: 73 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Toulouse Rank: 72 D
Auxerre Rank: 68 D
Paris Rank: 69 L
Olympique Marseille Rank: 79 W
Olympique Lyonnais Rank: 82 W
Brest Rank: 74 W
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 0 - 16
16

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Metz
0.19%
Draw
5.09%
Away Monaco
94.72%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
53.12
79.97
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Metz
Monaco
Power Score
53.12
79.97
League Position
18
6
Global Rank
426
60

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Metz — Opponent-weighted form score
Monaco — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Metz Monaco

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Metz

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Monaco

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Metz ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Monaco
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
45.44
26.82
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.82
45.44
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Metz +1.83 Efficiency Index
vs
Monaco -1.83 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Metz
Monaco
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Metz ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Monaco
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Metz Monaco
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Metz Monaco
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Metz
Monaco
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Metz
vs
Monaco
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Metz Monaco
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Metz 0.27
Monaco 0.28
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Metz Monaco
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Metz 0.04
Monaco 0.02
Metz
Monaco
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ASM had peak pressure around 45'.
  • ASM started the game with stronger pressure.
MTZ Pressure ASM Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ASM reached the top pressure at 45' (69.68).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 18 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Metz MTZ Home
18 matches
Monaco ASM Away
Match Record
2
Wins
16
0
Draws
0
16
Losses
2
Goals
13
Goals Scored
52
52
Goals Conceded
13
-39
Goal Difference
+39

Data last updated: 2026-05-03T00:06:22+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
P. Sy
Senegal
61 P. Sy
B. Sarr
Senegal
70 B. Sarr
S. Sané
Senegal
38 S. Sané
T. Yegbe
Ghana
15 T. Yegbe
H. Tsitaishvili
Georgia
7 H. Tsitaishvili
B. Stambouli
Substitution
France
21 B. Stambouli
J. Gbamin
Ivory Coast
5 J. Gbamin
G. Hein
France
10 G. Hein
J. Deminguet
Substitution
France
20 J. Deminguet
N. Mbala
Substitution
34 N. Mbala
G. Kvilitaia
Substitution
Georgia
11 G. Kvilitaia
Pitch
L. Hradecký
Finland
1 L. Hradecký
C. Mawissa Elebi
Substitution
France
13 C. Mawissa Elebi
T. Kehrer
Germany
5 T. Kehrer
D. Zakaria Lako Lado
Switzerland
6 D. Zakaria Lako Lado
S. Adingra
Substitution
Ivory Coast
24 S. Adingra
P. Pogba
Substitution
France
8 P. Pogba
L. Camara
Substitution
Senegal
15 L. Camara
J. Teze
Netherlands
4 J. Teze
A. Golovin
Substitution
Russia
10 A. Golovin
M. Akliouche
France
11 M. Akliouche
F. Balogun
England
9 F. Balogun

General Information

Date & Time :
May 02, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stade Saint-Symphorien
Capacity :
26661
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Ruddy Buquet
Valentin Evrard
Aurélien Petit
Erwan Finjean

Statistics

Possession
MTZ
41%
ASM
59%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 2
1 Shots 3
49 Dangerous attacks 54
34 Possession 66
5 Corners 9
15 Free kicks 10
0 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

4 Substitutions 6
11 Goal Attempts 7
1 Assists 2
1 Hit Woodwork 0
10 Goal Kicks 10
15 Dribble Attempts 9
9 Successful Dribbles 5
60 Successful Dribbles Percentage 56
13 Throwins 10
10 Successful Headers 12
71 Ball Safe 72

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 1
85 Attacks 125

Possession

234 Successful Passes 502
56 Long Passes 27
79 Successful Passes Percentage 86
55 Successful Long Passes Percentage 44
295 Passes 587
31 Successful Long Passes 12
12 Key Passes 12

Defensive

1 Saves 0
11 Tackles 12
11 Interceptions 5
42 Duels Won 38

Build-up

10 Accurate Crosses 6
21 Total Crosses 30

Discipline

1 Offsides 1
10 Fouls 15

Lineup

Referee : Ruddy Buquet

Starting XI ▼

61
Pape Sy
Pape Sy Goalkeeper
6.9
7
Giorgi Tsitaishvili
Giorgi Tsitaishvili Defender
6.77
15
Terry Yegbe
Terry Yegbe Defender
6.48
38
Sadibou Sané
Sadibou Sané Defender
6.81
70
Bouna Sarr
Bouna Sarr Defender
6.45
5
Jean-Philippe Gbamin
Jean-Philippe Gbamin Midfielder
6.57
10
Gauthier Hein
Gauthier Hein Midfielder
7.16
20
Jessy Deminguet
Jessy Deminguet Midfielder
6.63
35
Jahyann Pandore
Jahyann Pandore
Attacker81'
6.52
21
Benjamin Stambouli
Benjamin Stambouli Midfielder
6.64
33
Believe Munongo
Believe Munongo
Midfielder73'
6.57
34
Nathan Mbala
Nathan Mbala Midfielder
6.95
9
Giorgi Abuashvili
Giorgi Abuashvili
Attacker74'
6.58
11
Giorgi Kvilitaia
Giorgi Kvilitaia Attacker
6.8
30
Habib Diallo
Habib Diallo
Attacker81'
6.78
Referee : Ruddy Buquet

Starting XI ▼

1
Lukas Hradecky
Lukas Hradecky Goalkeeper
6.78
5
Thilo Kehrer
Thilo Kehrer Defender
6.92
6
Denis Zakaria
Denis Zakaria Defender
6.86
13
Christian Mawissa
Christian Mawissa Defender
6.71
12
Caio Henrique
Caio Henrique
Defender84'
6.66
4
J. Teze
J. Teze Midfielder
6.92
8
Paul Pogba
Paul Pogba Midfielder
6.6
23
Aladji Bamba
Aladji Bamba
Midfielder58'
6.82
15
Lamine Camara
Lamine Camara Midfielder
7.2
28
Mamadou Coulibaly
Mamadou Coulibaly
Midfielder58'
6.78
24
Simon Adingra
Simon Adingra Midfielder
6.74
31
Ansu Fati
Ansu Fati
Attacker58'
6.86
9
Folarin Balogun
Folarin Balogun Attacker
6.97
10
Aleksandr Golovin
Aleksandr Golovin Attacker
6.99
14
Mika Biereth
Mika Biereth
Attacker74'
6.62
11
Maghnes Akliouche
Maghnes Akliouche Attacker
7.08

Events

2ND-HALF
90+1'
Event
Ansu Fati
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
84'
Event
Caio Henrique → Christian Mawissa
9th Substitution
Event
Habib Diallo → Giorgi Kvilitaia
7th Substitution
81'
Event
Jahyann Pandore → Jessy Deminguet
8th Substitution
81'
81'
Event
Christian Mawissa
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Giorgi Abuashvili → Nathan Mbala
5th Substitution
74'
74'
Event
Mika Biereth → Aleksandr Golovin
6th Substitution
Event
Believe Munongo → Benjamin Stambouli
4th Substitution
73'
62'
Event
Mamadou Coulibaly
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
61'
Event
Folarin Balogun
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
58'
Event
Aladji Bamba → Paul Pogba
1st Substitution
58'
Event
Ansu Fati → Simon Adingra
3rd Substitution
58'
Event
Mamadou Coulibaly → Lamine Camara
2nd Substitution
Event
Jessy Deminguet
Header / 1st Goal
49'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Giorgi Tsitaishvili takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Anssumane Fati Vieira takes a shot with his left foot and scores.
90
Attempt Attempt
Bouna Sarr takes a right-footed shot but misses.
89
Attempt Attempt
Bouna Sarr's left-footed shot is blocked.
89
Attempt Attempt
Terry Yegbe attempts a header but misses the shot.
84
Update Update
Caio Henrique Oliveira Silva comes on for Christian Mawissa Elebi.
84
Attempt Attempt
Thilo Kehrer attempts a header but misses the shot.
82
Update Update
Habib Diallo replaces Giorgi Kvilitaia.
82
Update Update
Jahyann Pandore comes on for Jessy Deminguet.
81
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Christian Mawissa Elebi receives a yellow card.
80
Update Update
Gauthier Hein's header hits the post.
74
Substitution Substitution
Believe Munongo is substituted for Benjamin Stambouli.
74
Update Update
Giorgi Abuashvili replaces Nathan Mbala.
74
Update Update
Mika Bierith comes on for Aleksandr Golovin.
72
Attempt Attempt
Benjamin Stambouli takes a right-footed shot but misses.
70
Attempt Attempt
Mamadou Coulibaly takes a left-footed shot but misses.
66
Attempt Attempt
Folarin Balogun takes a left-footed shot but misses.
62
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Mamadou Coulibaly receives a yellow card.
61
Attempt Attempt
Folarin Balogun takes a right-footed shot and scores.
59
Update Update
Anssumane Fati Vieira is on, and Simon Adingra is off.
58
Update Update
Aladji Bamba replaces Paul Pogba.
58
Update Update
Mamadou Coulibaly comes on for Lamine Camara.
57
Attempt Attempt
Aleksandr Golovin takes a right-footed shot but misses.
53
Attempt Attempt
Nathan Mbala takes a left-footed shot but misses.
51
Attempt Attempt
Maghnes Akliouche takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
51
Attempt Attempt
Denis Lemi Zakaria Lako Lado takes a header shot but misses.
49
Attempt Attempt
Shot on goal! Jessy Deminguet heads the ball into the net.
45
Attempt Attempt
Bouna Sarr misses with a left-footed shot.
41
Attempt Attempt
Denis Lemi Zakaria Lako Lado takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
41
Attempt Attempt
Denis Lemi Zakaria Lako Lado takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
40
Attempt Attempt
Denis Lemi Zakaria Lako Lado takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
39
Attempt Attempt
Nathan Mbala takes a left-footed shot but misses.
32
Attempt Attempt
Aleksandr Golovin takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
30
Attempt Attempt
Gauthier Hein takes a left-footed shot but misses.
29
Attempt Attempt
Jessy Deminguet attempts a header but misses the shot.
28
Attempt Attempt
Maghnes Akliouche takes a left-footed shot but misses.
28
Attempt Attempt
Gauthier Hein takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
20
Attempt Attempt
Paul Pogba takes a right-footed shot but misses.
6
Attempt Attempt
Simon Adingra's left-footed shot is blocked.

CONCLUSION

Monaco's 2-1 triumph over Metz underscores their superiority, converting 66% possession into decisive second-half goals after a 0-0 halftime stalemate. Metz's 34% possession limited their threat, but a lone goal tested Monaco's resolve. With no red cards or major disruptions, the stronger visitors prevailed convincingly. This result aligns with pre-match views, showing minimal deviation and steady efficiencies. Monaco's control and finishing proved key in a match that stayed competitive yet tilted their way, reinforcing their status as favorites in a display of clinical execution.

Metz vs Monaco preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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