Metz vs Lorient Prediction, Preview and Stats

France flag 2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Stade Saint-Symphorien Sun, 10 May - 7:00 PM
Ligue 1
Metz MTZ
0 Winner 4
Lorient LOR
Full Time Sun, 10 May 7:00 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
|
Goal
Noah Doriann Cadiou - 90+9'
Arthur Avom - 90+7'
Bamba Dieng - 84'
Jean-Victor Makengo - 24'

CONTEXT

Lorient secured a decisive 0-4 victory over Metz in this away fixture, showcasing their superiority despite holding only 46% possession compared to Metz's 54%. The first half ended 0-1, with Lorient taking an early lead that they built upon emphatically in the second period by netting three additional goals. No red cards were issued, allowing the game to flow without disciplinary interruptions. Pre-match assessments identified Lorient as the stronger team, and their performance validated this view through clinical finishing and defensive solidity. Metz struggled to convert their territorial advantage into meaningful chances, highlighting Lorient's efficiency in transition and counter-attacks. The final scoreline reflected Lorient's control, with minimal deviations from expected patterns in their dominant display.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Lorient's 0-4 win exhibited minimal structural deviation of 2.1%.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies remained in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment cannot be determined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: The outcome fully aligned with pre-match market positioning.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without provided metrics.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the match flow.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion to the scoreline.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

J. Stinat

France 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

C. Mouysset

1st Assistant

France

Y. El Hamzaoui

2nd Assistant

France

S. Zolota

4th Official

France

League averages

Ligue 1 Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 20.25
Yellow cards / match 3.19
Red cards / match 0.17
Penalties / match 0.27
Metz B. Tavenot
B. Tavenot
VS
Lorient O. Pantaloni
O. Pantaloni
0.25
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.6
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Monaco Rank: 79 L
Le Havre Rank: 67 D
Paris Rank: 70 L
Olympique Marseille Rank: 79 L
Nantes Rank: 67 D
Rennes Rank: 79 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Paris Saint Germain Rank: 95 D
Strasbourg Rank: 78 L
Olympique Marseille Rank: 81 W
Olympique Lyonnais Rank: 83 L
Paris Rank: 73 D
Toulouse Rank: 74 L
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 2 - 8
8

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Metz
0.22%
Draw
1.92%
Away Lorient
97.86%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
53.23
62.14
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Metz
Lorient
Power Score
53.23
62.14
League Position
18
9
Global Rank
429
121

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Metz — Opponent-weighted form score
Lorient — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Metz Lorient

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Metz

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Lorient

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Metz ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lorient
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Metz Lorient
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Metz Lorient
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Metz
Lorient
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Metz
vs
Lorient
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Metz Lorient
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Metz 0.00
Lorient 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Metz Lorient
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Metz 0.00
Lorient 0.00
Metz
Lorient
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • LOR had peak pressure around 89'.
  • MTZ started the game with stronger pressure.
MTZ Pressure LOR Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: LOR reached the top pressure at 89' (83.40).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 13 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Metz MTZ Home
13 matches
Lorient LOR Away
Match Record
3
Wins
8
2
Draws
2
8
Losses
3
Goals
19
Goals Scored
29
29
Goals Conceded
19
-10
Goal Difference
+10

Data last updated: 2026-05-10T19:00:41+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
P. Sy
Senegal
61 P. Sy
K. Kouao
Substitution
Ghana
39 K. Kouao
S. Sané
Senegal
38 S. Sané
T. Yegbe
Ghana
15 T. Yegbe
H. Tsitaishvili
Georgia
7 H. Tsitaishvili
J. Deminguet
France
20 J. Deminguet
J. Gbamin
Substitution
Ivory Coast
5 J. Gbamin
B. Sarr
Senegal
70 B. Sarr
G. Hein
France
10 G. Hein
N. Mbala
Substitution
34 N. Mbala
G. Kvilitaia
Substitution
Georgia
11 G. Kvilitaia
Pitch
Y. Mvogo
Switzerland
38 Y. Mvogo
A. Faye
Substitution
Senegal
25 A. Faye
M. Talbi
Tunisia
3 M. Talbi
N. Adjei
Ghana
32 N. Adjei
K. Kouassi
Burkina Faso
43 K. Kouassi
L. Abergel
France
6 L. Abergel
N. Cadiou
France
8 N. Cadiou
P. Katseris
Substitution
Greece
77 P. Katseris
K. Dermane
Substitution
Togo
29 K. Dermane
J. Makengo
Substitution
France
17 J. Makengo
T. Aiyegun
Substitution
Benin
15 T. Aiyegun

General Information

Date & Time :
May 10, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stade Saint-Symphorien
Capacity :
26661
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Jeremy Stinat
Christophe Mouysset
Youssef El Hamzaoui
Samir Zolota

Statistics

Possession
MTZ
53%
LOR
47%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 4
1 Big Chances Created 2
4 Shots 5
58 Dangerous attacks 31
54 Possession 46
7 Corners 4
8 Free kicks 8
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

71 Successful Dribbles Percentage 54
16 Throwins 15
7 Dribble Attempts 13
5 Successful Dribbles 7
7 Successful Headers 6
6 Goal Kicks 7
0 Assists 3
4 Substitutions 5
61 Ball Safe 58
7 Goal Attempts 12
1 Injuries 0
1 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

113 Attacks 78
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

37 Long Passes 38
59 Successful Long Passes Percentage 45
22 Successful Long Passes 17
90 Successful Passes Percentage 86
464 Successful Passes 399
516 Passes 464
7 Key Passes 11

Defensive

9 Tackles 10
28 Duels Won 31
10 Interceptions 4
3 Saves 2

Build-up

30 Total Crosses 10
4 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

8 Fouls 8
0 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Jeremy Stinat

Starting XI ▼

61
Pape Sy
Pape Sy Goalkeeper
6.89
7
Giorgi Tsitaishvili
Giorgi Tsitaishvili Defender
6.77
15
Terry Yegbe
Terry Yegbe Defender
6.47
38
Sadibou Sané
Sadibou Sané Defender
6.82
39
Koffi Kouao
Koffi Kouao Defender
6.91
21
Benjamin Stambouli
Benjamin Stambouli
Midfielder65'
6.65
5
Jean-Philippe Gbamin
Jean-Philippe Gbamin Midfielder
6.57
33
Believe Munongo
Believe Munongo
Midfielder76'
6.54
10
Gauthier Hein
Gauthier Hein Midfielder
7.18
20
Jessy Deminguet
Jessy Deminguet Midfielder
6.66
34
Nathan Mbala
Nathan Mbala Midfielder
6.92
9
Giorgi Abuashvili
Giorgi Abuashvili
Attacker40'
6.57
70
Bouna Sarr
Bouna Sarr Midfielder
6.53
11
Giorgi Kvilitaia
Giorgi Kvilitaia Attacker
6.81
30
Habib Diallo
Habib Diallo
Attacker64'
6.77
Referee : Jeremy Stinat

Starting XI ▼

38
Yvon Mvogo
Yvon Mvogo Goalkeeper
6.82
3
Montassar Talbi
Montassar Talbi Defender
6.81
25
Abdoulaye Faye
Abdoulaye Faye Defender
6.63
95
Isaak Touré
Isaak Touré
Defender62'
6.48
32
Nathaniel Adjei
Nathaniel Adjei Defender
6.57
6
Laurent Abergel
Laurent Abergel Midfielder
6.8
8
Noah Doriann Cadiou
Noah Doriann Cadiou Midfielder
6.79
43
Arsène Kouassi
Arsène Kouassi Midfielder
6.9
77
Panos Katseris
Panos Katseris Midfielder
6.72
2
Igor Silva
Igor Silva
Defender90+5'
6.71
15
Aiyegun Tosin
Aiyegun Tosin Attacker
6.72
12
Bamba Dieng
Bamba Dieng
Attacker74'
6.89
17
Jean-Victor Makengo
Jean-Victor Makengo Attacker
6.91
62
Arthur Avom
Arthur Avom
Midfielder74'
6.93
29
Karim Dermane
Karim Dermane Attacker
6.73
10
Pablo Pagis
Pablo Pagis
Attacker62'
7.25

Events

2ND-HALF
90+9'
Event
Noah Doriann Cadiou
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
90+7'
Event
Arthur Avom
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
90+5'
Event
Igor Silva → Panos Katseris
9th Substitution
84'
Event
Bamba Dieng
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Believe Munongo → Jean-Philippe Gbamin
8th Substitution
76'
74'
Event
Arthur Avom → Jean-Victor Makengo
7th Substitution
74'
Event
Bamba Dieng → Aiyegun Tosin
6th Substitution
Event
Benjamin Stambouli → Koffi Kouao
5th Substitution
65'
Event
Habib Diallo → Giorgi Kvilitaia
4th Substitution
64'
62'
Event
Pablo Pagis → Karim Dermane
2nd Substitution
62'
Event
Isaak Touré → Abdoulaye Faye
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
42'
Event
Jean-Victor Makengo
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Giorgi Abuashvili → Nathan Mbala
1st Substitution
40'
24'
Event
Jean-Victor Makengo
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Giorgi Tsitaishvili
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
23'
15'
Event
Abdoulaye Faye
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Sadibou Sané
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
9'

Match Commentary

90
Substitution Substitution
Silva de Almeida Igor is substituted off for Panos Katseris.
90
Attempt Attempt
Arthur Avom scores with a right-footed shot.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Arthur Avom scores to make it 3-0, assisted by Pablo Pagis.
84
Attempt Attempt
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng scores with a right-footed shot.
80
Attempt Attempt
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
78
Attempt Attempt
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng takes a right-footed shot but misses.
78
Update Update
Habib Diallo attempts a header but misses the target.
76
Update Update
Believe Munongo is on, and Jean-Philippe Gbamin is off.
75
Update Update
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng comes on for Tosin Aiyegun.
75
Substitution Substitution
Arthur Avom is substituted off for Jean Victor Makengo.
74
Attempt Attempt
Tosin Aiyegun takes a left-footed shot but misses.
73
Attempt Attempt
Gauthier Hein takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
71
Attempt Attempt
Gauthier Hein takes a left-footed shot but misses.
70
Attempt Attempt
Laurent Abergel takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Benjamin Stambouli comes on for Kouao Kouao Koffi.
64
Update Update
Habib Diallo replaces Giorgi Kvilitaia.
63
Update Update
Tosin Aiyegun's header is blocked.
63
Attempt Attempt
Laurent Abergel takes a right-footed shot but misses.
62
Update Update
Souleymane Isaak Toure comes on for Abdoulaye Diagne Faye.
62
Update Update
Pablo Pagis is on, and Dermane Karim is off.
61
Attempt Attempt
Jean Victor Makengo's left-footed shot is saved.
59
Attempt Attempt
Giorgi Tsitaishvili takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
59
Attempt Attempt
Bouna Sarr takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
58
Attempt Attempt
Tosin Aiyegun takes a right-footed shot but misses.
51
Attempt Attempt
Giorgi Kvilitaia takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
45
Attempt Attempt
Dermane Karim's left-footed shot is saved.
44
Attempt Attempt
Terry Yegbe's right-footed shot is saved.
42
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jean Victor Makengo receives a yellow card.
40
Update Update
Giorgi Abuashvili replaces Nathan Mbala.
29
Attempt Attempt
Nathan Mbala takes a left-footed shot but misses.
24
Attempt Attempt
Shot from Jean Victor Makengo with his right foot finds the back of the net.
24
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Jean Victor Makengo scores to make it 1-0, assisted by Arsene Kouassi.
23
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Giorgi Tsitaishvili receives a yellow card.
17
Attempt Attempt
Jean Victor Makengo takes a left-footed shot but misses.
15
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Abdoulaye Diagne Faye receives a yellow card.
9
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Sadibou Sane receives a yellow card.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Jeremy Stinat.

CONCLUSION

Lorient's 0-4 triumph over Metz underscored their pre-identified strength, converting limited possession into a comprehensive win. The halftime score of 0-1 set the tone, with second-half goals exposing Metz's defensive frailties despite higher ball control. Without red cards or major incidents, the result stemmed purely from Lorient's superior execution and tactical discipline. This performance aligns with minimal deviations and market expectations, reinforcing Lorient's status as the dominant force. Metz's inability to capitalize on possession highlights broader inefficiencies in their setup.

Metz vs Lorient preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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