Metalist 1925 Kharkiv vs Karpaty Prediction, Preview and Stats

Ukraine flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine
Tsentralnyi Stadion Tue, 12 May - 3:00 PM
Premier League
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
2 – 2
Karpaty Karpaty
Full Time Tue, 12 May 3:00 PM
Round 28 Regular Season
Peter Mandela Itodo - 65'
Baton Zabergja - 41'
Goal
|
Goal
Ambrosiy Chachua - 60' (P), 52'

CONTEXT

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv and Karpaty delivered a gripping 2-2 draw in a match defined by resilience and second-half drama. The hosts surged ahead 1-0 at halftime, capitalizing on their 51% possession edge to control proceedings early. Karpaty, pegged as the stronger side, responded fiercely after the break, overturning the deficit with clinical finishing and sustained pressure despite only 49% possession. No red cards disrupted the flow, allowing both teams to showcase attacking intent in an even contest. Metalist's early lead evaporated as Karpaty equalized twice, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities exposed under mounting assaults. The result underscores Karpaty's quality in recovery while affirming Metalist's grit at home. With no major tactical shifts or knockout implications, the game stayed true to its balanced nature, leaving fans with a fair reflection of the teams' capabilities.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match featured moderate structural deviation of 9.7% linked to Karpaty.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiencies stayed in line with pre-match evaluations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome aligned fully with pre-match market positioning.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable from absent metrics.
  • Event impact: No notable events altered match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion in game flow.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

D. Shurman

Ukraine 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

V. Matyash

1st Assistant

Ukraine

O. Kalyonov

4th Official

Ukraine

V. Nyzhnyk

2nd Assistant

Ukraine

League averages

Premier League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 15.99
Yellow cards / match 3.03
Red cards / match 0.17
Penalties / match 0.26
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv M. Bartulović
M. Bartulović
VS
Karpaty F. Fernández Díaz
F. Fernández Díaz
1.93
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.27
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Zorya Luhansk Rank: 54 D
Polissya Zhytomyr Rank: 62 L
LNZ Cherkasy Rank: 58 D
Kudrivka Rank: 41 W
Veres Rank: 47 W
Dynamo Kyiv Rank: 66 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Rank: 56 L
LNZ Cherkasy Rank: 58 D
Rukh Vynnyky Rank: 44 W
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Rank: 46 D
Oleksandria Rank: 43 W
Dynamo Kyiv Rank: 66 W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
4.85%
Draw
90.3%
Away Karpaty
4.85%

Movement

Changes since opening
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
-4.67%
Draw
+8.86%
Karpaty
-4.19%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
49.07
54.48
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Karpaty
Power Score
49.07
54.48
League Position
6
9
Global Rank
731
667

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv — Opponent-weighted form score
Karpaty — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Karpaty

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Karpaty

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Karpaty
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.08
24.90
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
24.90
31.08
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv +0.63 Efficiency Index
vs
Karpaty -0.63 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Karpaty
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Karpaty
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Karpaty
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Karpaty
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Karpaty
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
vs
Karpaty
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Karpaty
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 0.16
Karpaty 0.14
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Karpaty
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 0.03
Karpaty 0.03
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Karpaty
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Metalist 1925 Kharkiv had peak pressure around 37'.
  • Metalist 1925 Kharkiv started the game with stronger pressure.
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Pressure Karpaty Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Metalist 1925 Kharkiv reached the top pressure at 37' (61.44).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Home
1 matches
Karpaty Karpaty Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
1
Goals
2
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
2
+1
Goal Difference
-1

Data last updated: 2026-05-13T00:01:25+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
D. Varakuta
Ukraine
30 D. Varakuta
V. Salyuk
Ukraine
13 V. Salyuk
Y. Pavliuk
Ukraine
18 Y. Pavliuk
A. Shabanov
Ukraine
31 A. Shabanov
I. Krupskyi
Ukraine
27 I. Krupskyi
I. Kaliuzhnyi
Ukraine
5 I. Kaliuzhnyi
B. Zabergja
Substitution
Kosovo
26 B. Zabergja
S. Castillo Pérez
Substitution
Venezuela
8 S. Castillo Pérez
J. Árevalo Chaparro
Substitution
Colombia
16 J. Árevalo Chaparro
E. Rashica
Substitution
Albania
19 E. Rashica
P. Itodo
Nigeria
98 P. Itodo
Pitch
N. Domchak
Ukraine
1 N. Domchak
R. Lyakh
Ukraine
73 R. Lyakh
T. Stetskov
Ukraine
55 T. Stetskov
V. Baboglo
Moldova
4 V. Baboglo
O. Sych
Ukraine
77 O. Sych
V. Rubchynskyi
Substitution
Ukraine
15 V. Rubchynskyi
E. da Silva Gomes
Substitution
Brazil
35 E. da Silva Gomes
A. Chachua
Ukraine
8 A. Chachua
Y. Kostenko
Substitution
Ukraine
26 Y. Kostenko
Y. Karabin
Substitution
Ukraine
19 Y. Karabin
X. Alkain Mitxelena
Substitution
Spain
70 X. Alkain Mitxelena

General Information

Date & Time :
May 12, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine · Round 28 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Tsentralnyi Stadion
Capacity :
5928
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Denys Shurman
Viktor Matyash
Oleksandr Kalyonov
Viktor Nyzhnyk

Statistics

Possession
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
53%
Karpaty
47%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
5 Shots 5
77 Dangerous attacks 64
51 Possession 49
7 Corners 5
10 Free kicks 5
5 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

2 Assists 1
0 Penalties 1
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

116 Attacks 102

Defensive

0 Saves 4

Discipline

5 Fouls 11
2 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Denys Shurman

Starting XI ▼

30
Danylo Varakuta
Danylo Varakuta Goalkeeper
13
Volodymyr Salyuk
Volodymyr Salyuk Defender
18
Yevgen Pavlyuk
Yevgen Pavlyuk Defender
27
Ilya Krupskyi
Ilya Krupskyi Defender
31
Artem Shabanov
Artem Shabanov Defender
5
Ivan Kalyuzhnyi
Ivan Kalyuzhnyi Midfielder
16
Nicolás Arévalo
Nicolás Arévalo Midfielder
11
Vyacheslav Churko
Vyacheslav Churko
Midfielder18'
19
Ermir Rashica
Ermir Rashica Midfielder
7
Ari Moura
Ari Moura
Midfielder75'
26
Baton Zabergja
Baton Zabergja Midfielder
15
Denys Antyukh
Denys Antyukh
Midfielder75'
8
Sebastian Castillo
Sebastian Castillo Attacker
99
Christian Mba
Christian Mba
Attacker87'
98
Peter Mandela Itodo
Peter Mandela Itodo Attacker
Referee : Denys Shurman

Starting XI ▼

1
Nazar Domchak
Nazar Domchak Goalkeeper
4
Vladyslav Baboglo
Vladyslav Baboglo Defender
55
Tymur Stetskov
Tymur Stetskov Defender
73
Rostyslav Lyakh
Rostyslav Lyakh Defender
77
Oleksiy Sych
Oleksiy Sych Defender
8
Ambrosiy Chachua
Ambrosiy Chachua Midfielder
2
15
Valentyn Rubchynskyi
Valentyn Rubchynskyi Midfielder
33
Artur Shakh
Artur Shakh
Midfielder80'
19
Yaroslav Karabin
Yaroslav Karabin Midfielder
18
Eriki
Eriki
Midfielder71'
26
Yan Kostenko
Yan Kostenko Midfielder
11
Denys Miroshnichenko
Denys Miroshnichenko
Defender90'
35
Edson Fernando
Edson Fernando Midfielder
5
Andriy Buleza
Andriy Buleza
Defender71'
70
Xeber Alkain
Xeber Alkain Midfielder
14
Ilya Kvasnytsya
Ilya Kvasnytsya
Midfielder80'

Events

2ND-HALF
90'
Event
Denys Miroshnichenko → Yan Kostenko
10th Substitution
Event
Ilya Krupskyi
7th Yellowcard
87'
Event
Igor Kogut → Vyacheslav Churko
8th Substitution
87'
Event
Christian Mba → Sebastian Castillo
9th Substitution
87'
80'
Event
Artur Shakh → Valentyn Rubchynskyi
7th Substitution
80'
Event
Ilya Kvasnytsya → Xeber Alkain
6th Substitution
Event
Denys Antyukh → Baton Zabergja
4th Substitution
75'
Event
Ari Moura → Ermir Rashica
5th Substitution
75'
71'
Event
Eriki → Yaroslav Karabin
3rd Substitution
71'
Event
Andriy Buleza → Edson Fernando
2nd Substitution
70'
Event
Yan Kostenko
6th Yellowcard
Event
Peter Mandela Itodo
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
65'
60'
Event
Ambrosiy Chachua
Penalty / 1st Penalty
Event
Ivan Kalyuzhnyi
5th Yellowcard
59'
52'
Event
Ambrosiy Chachua
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Peter Mandela Itodo
3rd Yellowcard
49'
49'
Event
Tymur Stetskov
4th Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Baton Zabergja
2nd Yellowcard
45'
Event
Baton Zabergja
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
41'
Event
Yevgen Pavlyuk
1st Yellowcard
27'
Event
Vyacheslav Churko → Nicolás Arévalo
1st Substitution
18'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Denys Miroshnichenko is on, and Yan Kostenko is off.
87
Update Update
Igor Kogut is on, and Vyacheslav Churko is off.
87
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Illia Krupskyi receives a yellow card.
87
Substitution Substitution
Christian Mba is substituted off for Sebastian Alejandro Castillo Perez.
80
Update Update
Artur Shakh is on, and Valentyn Rubchynskyi is off.
75
Update Update
Ari Moura Vieira Filho comes on for Ermir Rashica.
75
Substitution Substitution
Denys Antyukh is substituted for Baton Zabergja.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Bento comes on for Yaroslav Karabin.
71
Update Update
Andriy Buleza comes on for Edson Fernando Da Silva Gomes.
59
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Ivan Kalyuzhny.
59
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Ambrosiy Chachua scores, making it 1-2.
52
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Ambrosiy Chachua scores, making it 1-1.
49
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Peter Itodo receives a yellow card.
41
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Baton Zabergja leads 1-0.
17
Update Update
Vyacheslav Churko replaces Nicolas Arevalo.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Denys Shurman.

CONCLUSION

This 2-2 stalemate captures the essence of competitive parity between Metalist 1925 Kharkiv and Karpaty. Leading 1-0 at halftime, Metalist couldn't hold firm as Karpaty, the stronger outfit, staged a composed comeback without red card interruptions. Near-even possession underscored a tactical deadlock, with both sides efficient in key moments. The draw aligns with expectations, showing Karpaty's recovery prowess and Metalist's home tenacity. Absent xG data limits deeper analysis, yet the scoreline fairly represents the balanced exchanges and second-half momentum swing that defined this engaging encounter.

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv vs Karpaty preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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