Metalist 1925 Kharkiv vs Karpaty Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine
Tsentralnyi Stadion Tue, 12 May - 3:00 PM
Premier League Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 
2 – 2
Karpaty Karpaty Full Time Tue, 12 May 3:00 PM
Round 28 · Regular Season
Peter Mandela Itodo - 65'
Baton Zabergja - 41'
|
Ambrosiy Chachua - 60' (P), 52'
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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Promotion Promotion Playoffs Relegation
Data last checked: May 15
CONTEXT
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv and Karpaty delivered a gripping 2-2 draw in a match defined by resilience and second-half drama. The hosts surged ahead 1-0 at halftime, capitalizing on their 51% possession edge to control proceedings early. Karpaty, pegged as the stronger side, responded fiercely after the break, overturning the deficit with clinical finishing and sustained pressure despite only 49% possession. No red cards disrupted the flow, allowing both teams to showcase attacking intent in an even contest. Metalist's early lead evaporated as Karpaty equalized twice, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities exposed under mounting assaults. The result underscores Karpaty's quality in recovery while affirming Metalist's grit at home. With no major tactical shifts or knockout implications, the game stayed true to its balanced nature, leaving fans with a fair reflection of the teams' capabilities.
TL;DR
- Structural deviation: Match featured moderate structural deviation of 9.7% linked to Karpaty.
- Efficiency shift: Efficiencies stayed in line with pre-match evaluations.
- xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
- Market alignment: Outcome aligned fully with pre-match market positioning.
- xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable from absent metrics.
- Event impact: No notable events altered match dynamics.
- Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion in game flow.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Match referee
D. Shurman
Ukraine • 25 matches in sample Avg. cards 
0.12
0.12 Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0
Other match officials
V. Matyash
1st Assistant
UkraineO. Kalyonov
4th Official
UkraineV. Nyzhnyk
2nd Assistant
UkraineLeague averages
Premier League Based on last 100 matches
Fouls / match 15.99
Yellow cards / match 3.03
Red cards / match 0.17
Penalties / match 0.26
M. Bartulović
VS
F. Fernández Díaz
1.93
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.27
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Zorya Luhansk Rank: 54 D
Polissya Zhytomyr Rank: 62 L
LNZ Cherkasy Rank: 58 D
Kudrivka Rank: 41 W
Veres Rank: 47 W
Dynamo Kyiv Rank: 66 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Rank: 56 L
LNZ Cherkasy Rank: 58 D
Rukh Vynnyky Rank: 44 W
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Rank: 46 D
Oleksandria Rank: 43 W
Dynamo Kyiv Rank: 66 W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 0
0
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min) Metalist 1925 Kharkiv4.85%
Draw
90.3%
Karpaty4.85%
Movement
Changes since opening Metalist 1925 Kharkiv-4.67%
Draw
+8.86%
Karpaty-4.19%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
49.07 54.48 0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv KarpatyPower Score
49.07
54.48
League Position
6
9
Global Rank
731
667
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv — Opponent-weighted form score
Karpaty — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Karpaty
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Karpaty
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv ⚠ Proxyvs
⚠ Proxy Karpaty
Attacking Efficiency Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.08
24.90
Defensive Efficiency Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
24.90
31.08
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv +0.63 Efficiency Index
vs
Karpaty -0.63 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Karpaty
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv ⚠ Proxyvs
⚠ Proxy Karpaty
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Karpaty Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Karpaty Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Karpaty
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
–
Metalist 1925 Kharkivvs
Karpaty
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Karpaty Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 0.16
Karpaty 0.14
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Karpaty Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 0.03
Karpaty 0.03
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Karpaty
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- Metalist 1925 Kharkiv had peak pressure around 37'.
- Metalist 1925 Kharkiv started the game with stronger pressure.
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Pressure Karpaty Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Metalist 1925 Kharkiv reached the top pressure at 37' (61.44).
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Home
1 matches
Karpaty Karpaty Away
Match Record 1
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
1
Goals 2
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
2
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Data last updated: 2026-05-13T00:01:25+00:00
STARTING XI
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Karpaty Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
30 D. Varakuta
13 V. Salyuk
18 Y. Pavliuk
31 A. Shabanov
27 I. Krupskyi
5 I. Kaliuzhnyi
D. Antyukh
#1575'
26 B. Zabergja
C. Mba
#9987'
8 S. Castillo Pérez
V. Churko
#1118'
16 J. Árevalo Chaparro
A. Moura Vieira Filho
#775'
19 E. Rashica
98 P. Itodo
1 N. Domchak
73 R. Lyakh
55 T. Stetskov
4 V. Baboglo
77 O. Sych
A. Shakh
#3380'
15 V. Rubchynskyi
A. Buleza
#571'
35 E. da Silva Gomes
28 A. Chachua
D. Miroshnichenko
#1190'
26 Y. Kostenko
E. Bento
#1871'
19 Y. Karabin
I. Kvasnytsya
#1480'
70 X. Alkain Mitxelena
General Information
📅 Date & Time :
May 12, 2026, 03:00 PM
🏆 Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine · Round 28 · Regular Season
🏟️ Stadium :
Tsentralnyi Stadion
👥 Capacity :
5928
🌱 Pitch Surface :
Grass
🌤️ Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
🧑⚖️ Referees :
Denys Shurman
Viktor Matyash
Oleksandr Kalyonov
Viktor Nyzhnyk
Next Match
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
vs
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
League: Premier League
Kickoff: Sat, 16 May - 10:00 AM
Venue: Tsentralnyi Stadion
Karpaty
vs
Veres
League: Premier League
Kickoff: Sun, 17 May - 3:00 PM
Venue: Stadion Ukrajina
Statistics
Possession
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
53%
Karpaty
47%
Top Statistics
2 Goals 2
5 Shots 5
77 Dangerous attacks 64
51 Possession 49
7 Corners 5
10 Free kicks 5
5 Yellow Cards 2
Match Overview
2 Assists 1
0 Penalties 1
5 Substitutions 5
Attacking
116 Attacks 102
Defensive
0 Saves 4
Discipline
5 Fouls 11
2 Offsides 0
Lineup
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Referee : Denys Shurman
Manager ▼
M. Bartulović Coach
Starting XI ▼
30 Danylo Varakuta Goalkeeper
13 Volodymyr Salyuk Defender
18 Yevgen Pavlyuk Defender
27 Ilya Krupskyi Defender
31 Artem Shabanov Defender
5 Ivan Kalyuzhnyi Midfielder
16 Nicolás Arévalo Midfielder
11Vyacheslav Churko
Midfielder18'
19 Ermir Rashica Midfielder
7Ari Moura
Midfielder75'
26 Baton Zabergja Midfielder
15Denys Antyukh
Midfielder75'
8 Sebastian Castillo Attacker
99Christian Mba
Attacker87'
98 Peter Mandela Itodo Attacker
Substitutes ▼
11Vyacheslav Churko
Midfielder18'
15Denys Antyukh
Midfielder75'
7Ari Moura
Midfielder75'
17
Igor Kogut
Midfielder87'
99Christian Mba
Attacker87'
Bench ▼
23 Yaroslav Protsenko Goalkeeper
24
Oleksandr Martynyuk Defender
37
Valeriy Dubko Defender
14
Ramik Gadzhyev Midfielder
25
Ivan Lytvynenko Midfielder
45
Vladyslav Kalitvintsev Midfielder
77 Cauan Matteo Baptistella Midfielder
Karpaty Referee : Denys Shurman
Manager ▼
F. Fernández Díaz Coach
Starting XI ▼
1 Nazar Domchak Goalkeeper
4 Vladyslav Baboglo Defender
55 Tymur Stetskov Defender
73 Rostyslav Lyakh Defender
77 Oleksiy Sych Defender
8 Ambrosiy Chachua Midfielder
2
15 Valentyn Rubchynskyi Midfielder
33Artur Shakh
Midfielder80'
19 Yaroslav Karabin Midfielder
18Eriki
Midfielder71'
26 Yan Kostenko Midfielder
11Denys Miroshnichenko
Defender90'
35 Edson Fernando Midfielder
5Andriy Buleza
Defender71'
70 Xeber Alkain Midfielder
14Ilya Kvasnytsya
Midfielder80'
Substitutes ▼
18Eriki
Midfielder71'
5Andriy Buleza
Defender71'
33Artur Shakh
Midfielder80'
14Ilya Kvasnytsya
Midfielder80'
11Denys Miroshnichenko
Defender90'
Bench ▼
30
Andriy Klishchuk Goalkeeper
80
Roman Mysak Goalkeeper
56 Vladyslav Reznik Midfielder
28 Oleksandr Diedov Yevheniiovych Attacker
Events
2ND-HALF
90'
Denys Miroshnichenko → Yan Kostenko
10th Substitution
Ilya Krupskyi
7th Yellowcard
87'
Igor Kogut → Vyacheslav Churko
8th Substitution
87'
Christian Mba → Sebastian Castillo
9th Substitution
87'
80'
Artur Shakh → Valentyn Rubchynskyi
7th Substitution
80'
Ilya Kvasnytsya → Xeber Alkain
6th Substitution
Denys Antyukh → Baton Zabergja
4th Substitution
75'
Ari Moura → Ermir Rashica
5th Substitution
75'
71'
Eriki → Yaroslav Karabin
3rd Substitution
71'
Andriy Buleza → Edson Fernando
2nd Substitution
70'
Yan Kostenko
6th Yellowcard
Peter Mandela Itodo
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
65'
60'
Ambrosiy Chachua
Penalty / 1st Penalty
Ivan Kalyuzhnyi
5th Yellowcard
59'
52'
Ambrosiy Chachua
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Peter Mandela Itodo
3rd Yellowcard
49'
49'
Tymur Stetskov
4th Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Baton Zabergja
2nd Yellowcard
45'
Baton Zabergja
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
41'
Yevgen Pavlyuk
1st Yellowcard
27'
Vyacheslav Churko → Nicolás Arévalo
1st Substitution
18'
CONCLUSION
This 2-2 stalemate captures the essence of competitive parity between Metalist 1925 Kharkiv and Karpaty. Leading 1-0 at halftime, Metalist couldn't hold firm as Karpaty, the stronger outfit, staged a composed comeback without red card interruptions. Near-even possession underscored a tactical deadlock, with both sides efficient in key moments. The draw aligns with expectations, showing Karpaty's recovery prowess and Metalist's home tenacity. Absent xG data limits deeper analysis, yet the scoreline fairly represents the balanced exchanges and second-half momentum swing that defined this engaging encounter.
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv vs Karpaty preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.
Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.
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Match Commentary