Mechelen vs Gent Prediction, Preview and Stats

Belgium flag 2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
AFAS-stadion Achter de Kazerne Sun, 3 May - 11:30 AM
Pro League
Mechelen MEC
1 Winner 0
Gent GNT
Full Time Sun, 3 May 11:30 AM
Round 6 Championship Round
Bouke Boersma - 16'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

KV Mechelen claimed a narrow 1-0 home win against KAA Gent in the Belgian Pro League, defying pre-match assessments that favored Gent as the stronger team. The decisive goal arrived in the first half, establishing a 1-0 halftime lead that Mechelen preserved through a disciplined second-half performance. Possession tilted slightly towards the hosts at 51% to Gent's 49%, reflecting a balanced affair with few clear dominance indicators. No red cards disrupted play, and no major tactical adjustments marked the second period. This outcome registered a significant 64.5% structural deviation towards Mechelen, underscoring their efficiency in converting limited chances. Absent xG data limits deeper chance quality analysis, but the result highlights Mechelen's defensive solidity and Gent's inability to break through despite their favored status.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Mechelen's 1-0 win showed a 64.5% deviation from expectations, rated significant.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies stayed in line with pre-match projections.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable prevented alignment evaluation with the scoreline.
  • Market alignment: Pre-match market probabilities did not align with Mechelen's victory.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable due to missing metrics.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no disciplinary distortion in the result.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

S. Bourdeaud'hui

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

B. Bijnens

1st Assistant

J. Van Dyck

2nd Assistant

M. Ledda

4th Official

Mechelen F. Vanderbiest
F. Vanderbiest
VS
Gent R. Demil
R. Demil
1.18
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.27
0.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sint-Truiden Rank: 76 L
Club Brugge Rank: 84 L
Anderlecht Rank: 73 L
Union Saint-Gilloise Rank: 85 L
Gent Rank: 71 D
Club Brugge Rank: 86 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Club Brugge Rank: 84 L
Union Saint-Gilloise Rank: 86 D
Sint-Truiden Rank: 75 D
Anderlecht Rank: 72 L
Mechelen Rank: 70 D
Dender Rank: 61 W
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 12 - 23
23

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Mechelen
35.49%
Draw
26.56%
Away Gent
37.95%

Movement

Changes since opening
Mechelen
-60.62%
Draw
+22.86%
Gent
+37.76%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
69.73
71.22
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Mechelen
Gent
Power Score
69.73
71.22
League Position
5
6
Global Rank
211
177

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Mechelen — Opponent-weighted form score
Gent — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Mechelen Gent

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Mechelen

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Gent

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Mechelen ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Gent
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
21.18
20.82
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
20.82
21.18
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Mechelen +0.03 Efficiency Index
vs
Gent -0.03 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Mechelen
Gent
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Mechelen ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Gent
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Mechelen Gent
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Mechelen Gent
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Mechelen
Gent
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Mechelen
vs
Gent
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Mechelen Gent
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Mechelen 0.25
Gent 0.38
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Mechelen Gent
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Mechelen 0.00
Gent 0.03
Mechelen
Gent
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • GNT had peak pressure around 52'.
  • MEC started the game with stronger pressure.
MEC Pressure GNT Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: GNT reached the top pressure at 52' (92.08).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 43 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Mechelen MEC Home
43 matches
Gent GNT Away
Match Record
8
Wins
23
12
Draws
12
23
Losses
8
Goals
49
Goals Scored
84
84
Goals Conceded
49
-35
Goal Difference
+35

Data last updated: 2026-05-04T00:02:52+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
I. Mirás Blanco
Spain
13 I. Mirás Blanco
T. St. Jago
Netherlands
33 T. St. Jago
R. Halhal
Morocco
2 R. Halhal
J. Martinez Marsà
Spain
3 J. Martinez Marsà
B. Antonio
Substitution
Zimbabwe
38 B. Antonio
F. Hammar
Sweden
6 F. Hammar
M. Servais
Substitution
Belgium
17 M. Servais
T. Koudou
Substitution
France
7 T. Koudou
K. Mrabti
Substitution
Sweden
19 K. Mrabti
B. Boersma
28 B. Boersma
M. van Brederode
Netherlands
9 M. van Brederode
Pitch
D. Roef
Belgium
33 D. Roef
S. Van der Heyden
Belgium
44 S. Van der Heyden
M. Volckaert
Belgium
57 M. Volckaert
D. Hashioka
Substitution
Japan
4 D. Hashioka
T. Alves Araújo
Portugal
20 T. Alves Araújo
L. da Silva Lopes
Portugal
22 L. da Silva Lopes
T. De Vlieger
Belgium
27 T. De Vlieger
M. Skóraś
Substitution
Poland
8 M. Skóraś
A. Kadri
Substitution
Algeria
37 A. Kadri
M. Dean
Substitution
England
21 M. Dean
A. Kanga
Substitution
France
7 A. Kanga

General Information

Date & Time :
May 03, 2026, 11:30 AM
Competition :
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium · Round 6 · Championship Round
Stadium :
AFAS-stadion Achter de Kazerne
Capacity :
16672
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Bryan Bijnens
Jonas Van Dyck
Massimiliano Ledda
Simon Bourdeaud'hui

Statistics

Possession
MEC
51%
GNT
49%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
1 Big Chances Created 1
2 Shots 6
36 Dangerous attacks 24
51 Possession 49
7 Corners 4
14 Free kicks 9
2 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

4 Substitutions 5
0 Penalties 1
3 Injuries 0
57 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
17 Throwins 12
8 Successful Dribbles 6
13 Goal Kicks 5
14 Dribble Attempts 12
1 Assists 0
5 Goal Attempts 9
86 Ball Safe 67

Attacking

0 Big Chances Missed 1
78 Attacks 88

Possession

81 Successful Passes Percentage 83
337 Successful Passes 329
416 Passes 397
42 Successful Long Passes Percentage 48
62 Long Passes 46
26 Successful Long Passes 22
5 Key Passes 7

Defensive

8 Interceptions 16
50 Duels Won 54
18 Tackles 23
2 Saves 2

Build-up

19 Total Crosses 21
3 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

0 Offsides 1
10 Fouls 14

Lineup

Referee : Simon Bourdeaud'hui

Starting XI ▼

13
Nacho Miras
Nacho Miras Goalkeeper
7.15
2
Redouane Halhal
Redouane Halhal Defender
6.91
3
José Marsà
José Marsà Defender
6.69
33
Tommy St. Jago
Tommy St. Jago Defender
6.81
6
Fredrik Hammar
Fredrik Hammar Midfielder
7.04
7
Thérence Koudou
Thérence Koudou Midfielder
6.75
4
Gora Diouf
Gora Diouf
Defender89'
6.59
17
Mathis Servais
Mathis Servais Midfielder
6.99
10
Maksim Kireev
Maksim Kireev
Midfielder89'
6.6
38
Bill Antonio
Bill Antonio Midfielder
6.52
39
M. Decoene
M. Decoene
Midfielder80'
6.33
9
Myron van Brederode
Myron van Brederode Attacker
7.12
19
Kerim Mrabti
Kerim Mrabti Attacker
6.86
29
Dikeni Salifou
Dikeni Salifou
Midfielder56'
6.59
28
Bouke Boersma
Bouke Boersma Attacker
6.72
Referee : Simon Bourdeaud'hui

Starting XI ▼

33
Davy Roef
Davy Roef Goalkeeper
7
4
Daiki Hashioka
Daiki Hashioka Defender
6.57
24
Hyun-seok Hong
Hyun-seok Hong
Midfielder83'
6.76
44
Siebe Van der Heyden
Siebe Van der Heyden Defender
6.88
57
Matties Volckaert
Matties Volckaert Defender
6.82
8
Michal Skoras
Michal Skoras Midfielder
7.47
45
Hyllarion Goore
Hyllarion Goore
Attacker46'
6.78
20
Tiago Araújo
Tiago Araújo Midfielder
6.88
22
Leonardo Lopes
Leonardo Lopes Midfielder
6.75
27
Tibe De Vlieger
Tibe De Vlieger Midfielder
6.92
7
Wilfried Kanga
Wilfried Kanga Attacker
7.05
75
Ibrahima Cissé
Ibrahima Cissé
Attacker46'
6.7
21
Max Dean
Max Dean Attacker
6.91
11
Momodou Lamin Sonko
Momodou Lamin Sonko
Attacker46'
6.67
37
Abdelkahar Kadri
Abdelkahar Kadri Attacker
6.88
10
Aimé Omgba
Aimé Omgba
Midfielder70'
6.57

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Redouane Halhal
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
90+4'
90+4'
Event
Siebe Van der Heyden
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Maksim Kireev → Mathis Servais
9th Substitution
89'
Event
Gora Diouf → Thérence Koudou
8th Substitution
89'
83'
Event
Hyun-seok Hong → Daiki Hashioka
7th Substitution
Event
M. Decoene → Bill Antonio
6th Substitution
80'
79'
Event
Leonardo Lopes
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
70'
Event
Aimé Omgba → Abdelkahar Kadri
5th Substitution
69'
Event
Abdelkahar Kadri
GoalkeeperSave
61'
Event
Abdelkahar Kadri
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Dikeni Salifou → Kerim Mrabti
4th Substitution
56'
Event
Mathis Servais
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
53'
46'
Event
Ibrahima Cissé → Wilfried Kanga
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Hyllarion Goore → Michal Skoras
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Momodou Lamin Sonko → Max Dean
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Bouke Boersma
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
16'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Hong Hyun Seok takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
89
Substitution Substitution
Maxim Kireev is substituted for Mathis Servais.
89
Update Update
Gora Diouf comes on for Therence Koudou.
88
Attempt Attempt
Hyllarion Goore takes a right-footed shot but misses.
83
Update Update
Hong Hyun Seok replaces Daiki Hashioka.
81
Attempt Attempt
Fredrik Hammar takes a header but misses the shot.
80
Update Update
Massimo Decoene is on, and Bill Antonio is off.
76
Attempt Attempt
Bouke Boersma takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
72
Attempt Attempt
Aime Omgba's left-footed shot is blocked.
70
Update Update
Aime Omgba is on, and Abdelkahar Kadri is off.
69
Attempt Attempt
Abdelkahar Kadri takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
69
Attempt Attempt
Abdelkahar Kadri has his penalty saved.
66
Attempt Attempt
Mathis Servais takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
62
Attempt Attempt
Redouane Halhal takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
56
Substitution Substitution
Dikeni is replaced by Rafid Salifou, and Kerim Mrabti is substituted off.
55
Attempt Attempt
Momodou Sonko takes a left-footed shot but misses.
53
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Mathis Servais receives a yellow card.
51
Attempt Attempt
Hyllarion Goore takes a right-footed shot but misses.
49
Attempt Attempt
Ibrahima Cisse takes a right-footed shot but misses.
46
Update Update
Momodou Sonko is on, and Max Dean is off.
46
Update Update
Hyllarion Goore comes on for Michal Skoras.
37
Attempt Attempt
Daiki Hashioka takes a right-footed shot but misses.
34
Attempt Attempt
Bill Antonio takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
34
Attempt Attempt
Jose Martinez Marsa has a shot with his left foot, but it's blocked.
21
Attempt Attempt
Matties Volckaert attempts a header but misses the shot.
16
Attempt Attempt
Bouke Boersma scores with a left-footed shot.
6
Attempt Attempt
Myron van Brederode takes a right-footed shot but misses.
6
Attempt Attempt
Myron van Brederode takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.

CONCLUSION

Mechelen's 1-0 triumph over Gent exemplifies how marginal advantages can yield substantial results in even contests. Holding a first-half lead while matching possession underscored their tactical discipline against a stronger-rated opponent. The significant deviation from expectations points to overperformance by Mechelen, particularly in defensive organization. Without xG insights or disruptive events, the focus remains on their clinical finishing and resilience. Gent's failure to convert possession into threats highlights a need for improved final-third execution. This outcome reinforces the unpredictability of tight matches where efficiency trumps raw strength.

Mechelen vs Gent preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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