Mantova vs Virtus Entella Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Serie B, Italy

Stadio Danilo Martelli Mon, 6 Apr - 1:00 PM

Serie B

Mantova MAN

Virtus Entella ENT

Full Time Mon, 6 Apr 1:00 PM

Round 33 Regular Season

Tommaso Marras - 84'

CONTEXT

The match has officially finished, with Mantova securing a narrow 1-0 victory over Virtus Entella. After a tightly contested first half that ended in a scoreless draw, Mantova eventually found the breakthrough in the second half to claim the win on their home turf. The outcome aligned directly with the pre-match market, as Mantova entered the contest as the stronger side. Pre-match betting probabilities gave the home team a 40.1% chance of winning, compared to a 29.7% chance of a draw and a 30.3% chance for a Virtus Entella victory. This result generated a significant deviation level of 59.9% favoring Mantova, ultimately justifying their status as the pre-game favorites. Mantova controlled the tempo of the game, holding 55% of the overall possession while Virtus Entella managed 45%. Expected goals (xG) data was not available for this fixture, making it impossible to determine if the final scoreline was perfectly consistent with underlying xG metrics. However, the teams' offensive efficiency shift was distinctly in line with regular expectations. Finally, the match was played cleanly without any red cards shown to either side, ensuring that disciplinary events and numerical disadvantages did not impact the final result.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Mantova showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
Event impact: No major event distortion.
Red card distortion: None.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

F. Dionisi

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Emmanuele

1st Assistant

A. Zezza

2nd Assistant

A. Zanotti

4th Official

F. Modesto

A. Chiappella

1.2

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.12

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

0 - 0 - 1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Mantova

40.07%

Draw

29.67%

Virtus Entella

30.26%

Team Power Ranking

52.25

46.99

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Mantova

Virtus Entella

Power Score

52.25

46.99

League Position

Global Rank

686

827

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Mantova — Opponent-weighted form score

Virtus Entella — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Mantova Virtus Entella

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Mantova

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Virtus Entella

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Mantova ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Virtus Entella

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

26.09

26.11

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

26.11

26.09

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Mantova 0.00 Efficiency Index

Virtus Entella +0.00 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Mantova

Virtus Entella

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Mantova ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Virtus Entella

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Mantova Virtus Entella

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Mantova Virtus Entella

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Mantova

Virtus Entella

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Mantova

Virtus Entella

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Mantova Virtus Entella

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Mantova Virtus Entella

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Mantova

Virtus Entella

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Mantova MAN Home

1 matches

Virtus Entella ENT Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

-1

Goal Difference

Data last updated: 2026-04-07T00:02:35+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1

Match Formation 3-5-2

24 F. Bardi

3 A. Dembélé

29 S. Cella

96 T. Maggioni

17 N. Radaelli

21 S. Trimboli

10 D. Wieser

50 F. Benaissa-Yahia

30 D. Bragantini

77 N. Buso

9 L. Mancuso

22 F. Del Frate

15 I. Marconi

6 A. Tiritiello

23 L. Parodi

26 S. Di Mario

8 N. Karic

5 N. Squizzato

24 A. Franzoni

7 D. Bariti

17 M. Tirelli

10 L. Cuppone

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 06, 2026, 01:00 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 33 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Stadio Danilo Martelli

Capacity :

7487

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ , Clear

Referees :

Marco Emmanuele

Andrea Zezza

Federico Dionisi

Andrea Zanotti

Statistics

Possession

MAN

54%

ENT

46%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0

2 Big Chances Created 2

2 Shots 3

47 Dangerous attacks 35

55 Possession 45

4 Corners 2

15 Free kicks 18

4 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

24 Throwins 29

40 Successful Dribbles Percentage 38

4 Substitutions 5

3 Injuries 2

13 Goal Kicks 7

6 Successful Dribbles 3

15 Dribble Attempts 8

79 Ball Safe 82

9 Goal Attempts 6

Attacking

2 Big Chances Missed 2

71 Attacks 80

Possession

21 Successful Long Passes 19

50 Successful Long Passes Percentage 35

42 Long Passes 54

344 Passes 280

277 Successful Passes 188

81 Successful Passes Percentage 67

7 Key Passes 7

Defensive

40 Duels Won 47

6 Interceptions 8

7 Tackles 13

1 Saves 4

Build-up

5 Accurate Crosses 3

14 Total Crosses 11

Discipline

18 Fouls 15

3 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Federico Dionisi

Manager ▼

F. Modesto Coach

Starting XI ▼

Francesco Bardi Goalkeeper

Ali Dembélé Defender

Stefano Cella Defender

Tommaso Maggioni Defender

David Wieser Midfielder

Flavio Paoletti

Midfielder76'

Nicolò Radaelli Midfielder

Simone Trimboli Midfielder

Fahem Benaïssa Midfielder

Leonardo Mancuso Attacker

Davis Mensah

Attacker20'

Davide Bragantini Attacker

Tommaso Marras

Attacker76'

Nicolò Buso Attacker

Francesco Ruocco

Midfielder54'

Substitutes ▼

Davis Mensah

Attacker20'

Francesco Ruocco

Midfielder54'

Tommaso Marras

Attacker76'

Flavio Paoletti

Midfielder76'

Bench ▼

Lorenzo Andrenacci Goalkeeper

Ante Vukovic Goalkeeper

Konstantinos Chrysopoulos Defender

Junior Ligue Defender

Cristian Marai Defender

César Falletti Midfielder

Federico Zuccon Midfielder

Maat Daniel Caprini Attacker

Referee : Federico Dionisi