Mantova vs Monza Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Danilo Martelli Fri, 1 May - 1:00 PM
Serie B
Mantova MAN
3 Winner 2
Monza MON
Full Time Fri, 1 May 1:00 PM
Round 37 Regular Season
Fahem Benaïssa - 90+5'
Leonardo Mancuso - 35'
Rachid Kouda - 23'
Goal
|
Goal
Dany Mota - 88'
Lorenzo Lucchesi - 78'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Mantova 3–2 Monza. The result saw Mantova take the points. Mantova showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 44%–56%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Mantova's 3-2 win marked a 95.5% structural deviation, deemed significant.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiencies for both teams stayed in line with pre-match projections.
  • xG alignment: xG data absence prevented assessment of outcome alignment.
  • Market alignment: The result diverged from pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: Missing xG figures precluded evaluation against expectations.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or knockout elements altered the match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion from player dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

J. Sacchi

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

D. Imperiale

1st Assistant

M. Regattieri

2nd Assistant

M. Perri

4th Official

Mantova F. Modesto
F. Modesto
VS
Monza P. Bianco
P. Bianco
1.46
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.12
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Südtirol Rank: 53 W
Avellino Rank: 50 L
Spezia Rank: 50 W
Virtus Entella Rank: 48 W
Modena Rank: 57 L
Cesena Rank: 53 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Modena Rank: 57 W
Sampdoria Rank: 52 W
Bari 1908 Rank: 50 W
Catanzaro Rank: 60 D
Venezia Rank: 70 D
Reggiana Rank: 47 D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Mantova
4.46%
Draw
90.03%
Away Monza
5.51%

Movement

Changes since opening
Mantova
0%
Draw
+0.74%
Monza
-0.74%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
55.04
60.02
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Mantova
Monza
Power Score
55.04
60.02
League Position
8
3
Global Rank
642
297

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Mantova — Opponent-weighted form score
Monza — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Mantova Monza

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Mantova

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Monza

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Mantova ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Monza
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
44.55
43.66
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
43.66
44.55
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Mantova +0.08 Efficiency Index
vs
Monza -0.08 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Mantova
Monza
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Mantova ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Monza
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Mantova Monza
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Mantova Monza
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Mantova
Monza
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Mantova
vs
Monza
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Mantova Monza
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Mantova 0.56
Monza 0.79
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Mantova Monza
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Mantova 0.07
Monza 0.09
Mantova
Monza
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • MON had peak pressure around 49'.
  • MAN started the game with stronger pressure.
MAN Pressure MON Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: MON reached the top pressure at 49' (79.07).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Mantova MAN Home
1 matches
Monza MON Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
0
-1
Goal Difference
+1

Data last updated: 2026-05-02T00:02:08+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
F. Bardi
Italy
24 F. Bardi
A. Dembélé
France
3 A. Dembélé
S. Cella
Italy
29 S. Cella
A. Castellini
Italy
27 A. Castellini
T. Maggioni
Italy
96 T. Maggioni
S. Trimboli
Italy
21 S. Trimboli
R. Kouda
Substitution
Italy
80 R. Kouda
F. Benaissa-Yahia
France
50 F. Benaissa-Yahia
T. Marras
Substitution
Italy
23 T. Marras
F. Ruocco
Substitution
Italy
19 F. Ruocco
L. Mancuso
Substitution
Italy
9 L. Mancuso
Pitch
D. Thiam
Senegal
20 D. Thiam
L. Lucchesi
Italy
3 L. Lucchesi
F. Delli Carri
Substitution
Italy
15 F. Delli Carri
L. Ravanelli
Italy
13 L. Ravanelli
P. Dentello Azzi
Substitution
Brazil
7 P. Dentello Azzi
M. Pessina
Italy
32 M. Pessina
P. Mba Obiang Avomo
Substitution
Equatorial Guinea
14 P. Mba Obiang Avomo
S. Birindelli
Italy
19 S. Birindelli
P. Cutrone
Italy
10 P. Cutrone
A. Colpani
Substitution
Italy
28 A. Colpani
A. Petagna
Substitution
Italy
37 A. Petagna

General Information

Date & Time :
May 01, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 37 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadio Danilo Martelli
Capacity :
7487
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Davide Imperiale
Mattia Regattieri
Mario Perri
Juan Luca Sacchi

Statistics

Possession
MAN
47%
MON
53%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 2
4 Big Chances Created 5
9 Shots 9
32 Dangerous attacks 29
44 Possession 56
0 Corners 7
11 Free kicks 18
3 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

3 Assists 1
9 Dribble Attempts 10
11 Throwins 19
12 Goal Kicks 9
33 Successful Dribbles Percentage 20
3 Successful Dribbles 2
4 Substitutions 5
95 Ball Safe 92
16 Goal Attempts 15
1 Hit Woodwork 2

Attacking

79 Attacks 83
3 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

79 Successful Passes Percentage 82
361 Passes 447
43 Successful Long Passes Percentage 41
16 Key Passes 14
285 Successful Passes 366
51 Long Passes 51
22 Successful Long Passes 21

Defensive

4 Interceptions 4
18 Tackles 11
6 Saves 4
41 Duels Won 39

Build-up

1 Accurate Crosses 6
6 Total Crosses 23

Discipline

4 Offsides 1
18 Fouls 11

Lineup

Referee : Juan Luca Sacchi

Starting XI ▼

24
Francesco Bardi
Francesco Bardi Goalkeeper
6.61
3
Ali Dembélé
Ali Dembélé Defender
6.8
27
Alessio Castellini
Alessio Castellini Defender
7.03
29
Stefano Cella
Stefano Cella Defender
6.81
21
Simone Trimboli
Simone Trimboli Midfielder
7.03
50
Fahem Benaïssa
Fahem Benaïssa Midfielder
6.81
80
Rachid Kouda
Rachid Kouda Midfielder
6.95
77
Nicolò Buso
Nicolò Buso
Attacker80'
6.79
96
Tommaso Maggioni
Tommaso Maggioni Midfielder
6.65
9
Leonardo Mancuso
Leonardo Mancuso Attacker
6.7
10
David Wieser
David Wieser
Midfielder80'
6.64
19
Francesco Ruocco
Francesco Ruocco Attacker
6.88
36
Flavio Paoletti
Flavio Paoletti
Midfielder73'
6.6
23
Tommaso Marras
Tommaso Marras Attacker
6.97
18
César Falletti
César Falletti
Midfielder73'
6.76
Referee : Juan Luca Sacchi

Starting XI ▼

20
Demba Thiam
Demba Thiam Goalkeeper
7.06
3
Lorenzo Lucchesi
Lorenzo Lucchesi Defender
6.63
13
Luca Ravanelli
Luca Ravanelli Defender
7.09
15
Filippo Delli Carri
Filippo Delli Carri Defender
6.86
24
Adam Bakoune
Adam Bakoune
Defender56'
6.69
7
Paulo Daniel Dentello Azzi
Paulo Daniel Dentello Azzi Midfielder
7.06
47
Dany Mota
Dany Mota
Attacker65'
6.86
14
Pedro Obiang
Pedro Obiang Midfielder
6.94
8
Hernani
Hernani
Midfielder56'
7.06
19
Samuele Birindelli
Samuele Birindelli Midfielder
6.97
32
Matteo Pessina
Matteo Pessina Midfielder
7.13
10
Patrick Cutrone
Patrick Cutrone Attacker
6.85
28
Andrea Colpani
Andrea Colpani Attacker
7.07
30
Giuseppe Caso
Giuseppe Caso
Midfielder56'
6.75
37
Andrea Petagna
Andrea Petagna Attacker
6.92
25
Agustín Álvarez
Agustín Álvarez
Attacker73'
6.77

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Fahem Benaïssa
Left foot shot / 5th Goal
90+5'
Event
Flavio Paoletti
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
88'
88'
Event
Dany Mota
Header / 4th Goal
Event
Nicolò Buso → Rachid Kouda
8th Substitution
80'
Event
David Wieser → Leonardo Mancuso
9th Substitution
80'
78'
Event
Lorenzo Lucchesi
Header / 3rd Goal
Event
César Falletti → Tommaso Marras
6th Substitution
73'
Event
Flavio Paoletti → Francesco Ruocco
7th Substitution
73'
73'
Event
Agustín Álvarez → Andrea Petagna
5th Substitution
65'
Event
Dany Mota → Paulo Daniel Dentello Azzi
4th Substitution
Event
Stefano Cella
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
59'
57'
Event
Hernani
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
56'
Event
Adam Bakoune → Filippo Delli Carri
1st Substitution
56'
Event
Hernani → Pedro Obiang
3rd Substitution
56'
Event
Giuseppe Caso → Andrea Colpani
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Leonardo Mancuso
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
35'
28'
Event
Andrea Petagna
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Rachid Kouda
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
23'
Event
Ali Dembélé
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
11'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Dany Mota Carvalho scores with a header.
90
Attempt Attempt
Giuseppe Caso takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Adam Bakoune takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Fahem Benaissa-Yahia takes a left-footed shot and scores.
88
Attempt Attempt
Flavio Paoletti takes a right-footed shot but misses.
86
Attempt Attempt
Flavio Paoletti takes a right-footed shot but misses.
86
Attempt Attempt
Giuseppe Caso's right-footed shot is saved.
85
Update Update
Tommaso Maggioni's header is blocked.
85
Attempt Attempt
David Wieser takes a right-footed shot but misses.
80
Update Update
David Wieser replaces Leonardo Mancuso.
80
Update Update
Nicolo Buso comes on for Rachid Kouda.
78
Update Update
Goal! Luca Ravanelli scores, making it 2-1.
78
Update Update
Lorenzo Lucchesi scores with a header.
78
Attempt Attempt
Agustin Alvarez Martinez takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
77
Attempt Attempt
Giuseppe Caso takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
75
Attempt Attempt
Patrick Cutrone's right-footed shot is blocked.
75
Attempt Attempt
Giuseppe Caso takes a right-footed shot but misses.
74
Update Update
Agustin Alvarez Martinez comes on for Andrea Petagna.
73
Update Update
Cesar Alejandro Falletti dos Santos is on, and Tommaso Marras is off.
73
Update Update
Flavio Paoletti is on, and Francesco Ruocco is off.
72
Attempt Attempt
Giuseppe Caso takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
72
Attempt Attempt
Simone Trimboli takes a right-footed shot but misses.
71
Attempt Attempt
Patrick Cutrone's right-footed shot is saved.
69
Attempt Attempt
Patrick Cutrone takes a left-footed shot but misses.
68
Attempt Attempt
Hernani Azevedo Junior takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
68
Attempt Attempt
Andrea Petagna's right-footed shot is blocked.
67
Attempt Attempt
Leonardo Mancuso takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
66
Attempt Attempt
Tommaso Marras takes a left-footed shot but misses.
65
Update Update
Dany Mota Carvalho comes on for Paulo Azzi.
63
Attempt Attempt
Alessio Castellini takes a left-footed shot but misses.
62
Attempt Attempt
Rachid Kouda's right-footed shot is blocked.
62
Attempt Attempt
Tommaso Marras takes a left-footed shot but misses.
60
Attempt Attempt
Hernani Azevedo Junior takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
56
Update Update
Giuseppe Caso is on, and Andrea Colpani is off.
56
Update Update
Adam Bakoune is on, and Filippo Delli Carri is off.
56
Update Update
Hernani Azevedo Junior is on, and Pedro Mba Obiang Avomo is off, along with Perico.
53
Attempt Attempt
Andrea Colpani takes a left-footed shot but misses.
51
Attempt Attempt
Tommaso Marras takes a left-footed shot but misses.
47
Update Update
Filippo Delli Carri attempts a header but misses.
44
Attempt Attempt
Andrea Petagna's left-footed shot is saved.
36
Attempt Attempt
Shot from Leonardo Mancuso with his right foot results in a goal.
35
Update Update
Goal! Leonardo Mancuso scores, making it 2-0.
31
Attempt Attempt
Simone Trimboli takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
27
Attempt Attempt
Pedro Mba Obiang Avomo takes a right-footed shot, but it misses the target.
23
Attempt Attempt
Rachid Kouda takes a shot with his left foot and scores.
22
Attempt Attempt
Tommaso Marras takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
19
Attempt Attempt
Leonardo Mancuso takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
19
Attempt Attempt
Leonardo Mancuso takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
14
Attempt Attempt
Matteo Pessina's left-footed shot is saved.
11
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ali Dembele receives a yellow card.
9
Attempt Attempt
Leonardo Mancuso takes a right-footed shot but misses.
2
Attempt Attempt
Tommaso Marras takes a right-footed shot but misses.
1
Attempt Attempt
Patrick Cutrone's right-footed shot is saved.

CONCLUSION

Mantova's gritty 3-2 triumph over Monza cements their status as league agitators, proving that heart and opportunism can topple favorites. Despite Monza's possession edge and stronger billing, Mantova's halftime cushion and second-half resolve sealed a deserved win. This outcome underscores the beauty of football's unpredictability, where underdogs rewrite narratives. For Monza, the loss serves as a wake-up call to sharpen finishing amid dominance. Mantova climbs the table buoyed by momentum, while Monza recalibrates for redemption. A match defined by resilience over resources.

Mantova vs Monza preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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