Mantova vs Avellino Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Serie B, Italy

Stadio Danilo Martelli Sat, 18 Apr - 1:00 PM

Serie B

Mantova MAN

Avellino AVE

Full Time Sat, 18 Apr 1:00 PM

Round 35 Regular Season

Andrea Favilli - 86'

Filippo Missori - 63'

CONTEXT

Mantova hosted Avellino in a match where the home side entered as the stronger team, reflected in pre-match structural expectations of 41.7% win probability compared to Avellino's 27.8%. Despite dominating possession with 66% to Avellino's 34%, Mantova suffered a 0-2 defeat. The first half ended level at 0-0, with no goals from either side. Avellino struck twice in the second half, capitalizing on their limited opportunities while Mantova failed to convert their territorial advantage. No red cards were issued, ensuring full squads throughout. This result marked a significant 72.2% deviation, with the outcome not aligning with market-implied probabilities. Efficiency metrics stayed in line with expectations, though xG data was unavailable for deeper analysis. Avellino's clinical approach overturned the pre-match favoritism.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Avellino's victory represented a 72.2% significant structural deviation from expectations favoring Mantova.
Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match expectations.
xG alignment: xG alignment could not be assessed due to unavailable data.
Market alignment: Outcome did not align with pre-match market expectations.
xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable for evaluation.
Event impact: No second-half adjustments or impactful events occurred.
Red card distortion: No red cards resulted in zero distortion from dismissals.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

A. Calzavara

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

P. Capaldo

1st Assistant

M. Pascarella

2nd Assistant

D. Galiffi

4th Official

F. Modesto

D. Ballardini

1.33

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.04

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

3 - 4 - 0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Mantova

41.65%

Draw

30.56%

Avellino

27.79%

Movement

Changes since opening

Mantova

+41.43%

Draw

+28.64%

Avellino

-70.07%

Team Power Ranking

26.16

23.61

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Mantova

Avellino

Power Score

26.16

23.61

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Mantova — Opponent-weighted form score

Avellino — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Mantova Avellino

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Mantova

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Avellino

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Mantova ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Avellino

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

22.58

21.62

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

21.62

22.58

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Mantova +0.09 Efficiency Index

Avellino -0.09 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Mantova

Avellino

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Mantova ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Avellino

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Mantova Avellino

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Mantova Avellino

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Mantova

Avellino

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Mantova

Avellino

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Mantova Avellino

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Mantova Avellino

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Mantova

Avellino

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

MAN had peak pressure around 30'.
MAN started the game with stronger pressure.

MAN Pressure AVE Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: MAN reached the top pressure at 30' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Mantova MAN Home

7 matches

Avellino AVE Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

Goal Difference

-6

Data last updated: 2026-04-19T00:03:00+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1

Match Formation 4-3-1-2

24 F. Bardi

3 A. Dembélé

29 S. Cella

27 A. Castellini

96 T. Maggioni

80 R. Kouda

10 D. Wieser

50 F. Benaissa-Yahia

30 D. Bragantini

19 F. Ruocco

9 L. Mancuso

1 A. Iannarilli

63 A. Fontanarosa

4 A. Izzo

44 L. Šimić

29 T. Cancellotti

24 D. Sounas

20 M. Palumbo

6 L. Palmiero

14 T. Biasci

10 R. Russo

9 C. Patierno

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 18, 2026, 01:00 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 35 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Stadio Danilo Martelli

Capacity :

7487

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Andrea Calzavara

Pasquale Capaldo

Mattia Pascarella

Davide Galiffi

Statistics

Possession

MAN

62%

AVE

38%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2

2 Big Chances Created 0

12 Shots 6

58 Dangerous attacks 27

66 Possession 34

10 Corners 2

12 Free kicks 18

1 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

20 Throwins 10

5 Goal Kicks 9

21 Dribble Attempts 15

48 Successful Dribbles Percentage 40

113 Ball Safe 107

10 Successful Dribbles 6

7 Goal Attempts 4

0 Injuries 3

0 Assists 2

4 Substitutions 5

Attacking

131 Attacks 67

2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

563 Passes 299

29 Successful Long Passes 24

83 Successful Passes Percentage 71

469 Successful Passes 213

60 Long Passes 68

48 Successful Long Passes Percentage 35

10 Key Passes 4

Defensive

14 Tackles 24

56 Duels Won 63

1 Saves 3

6 Interceptions 8

Build-up

18 Total Crosses 7

6 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

18 Fouls 12

0 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Andrea Calzavara

Manager ▼

F. Modesto Coach

Starting XI ▼

Francesco Bardi Goalkeeper

6.61

Ali Dembélé Defender

6.76

Alessio Castellini Defender

7.03

Stefano Cella Defender

6.8

David Wieser Midfielder

6.61

César Falletti

Midfielder81'

6.8

Fahem Benaïssa Midfielder

6.82

Rachid Kouda Midfielder

6.97

Tommaso Maggioni Midfielder

6.65

Nicolò Radaelli

Defender58'

6.65

Leonardo Mancuso Attacker

6.71

Francesco Ruocco Attacker

6.89

Nicolò Buso

Attacker58'

6.79

Davide Bragantini Attacker

6.99

Substitutes ▼

Nicolò Radaelli

Defender58'

6.65

Nicolò Buso

Attacker58'

6.79

—

Unknown

76'

César Falletti

Midfielder81'

6.8

Bench ▼

Lorenzo Andrenacci Goalkeeper

Ante Vukovic Goalkeeper

Konstantinos Chrysopoulos Defender

5.58

Cristian Marai Defender

Flavio Paoletti Midfielder

6.61

Federico Zuccon Midfielder

6.32

Tommaso Marras Attacker

6.94

Maat Daniel Caprini Attacker

6.63

Referee : Andrea Calzavara