Mantova vs Avellino Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Danilo Martelli Sat, 18 Apr - 1:00 PM
Serie B
Mantova MAN
0 Winner 2
Avellino AVE
Full Time Sat, 18 Apr 1:00 PM
Round 35 Regular Season
|
Goal
Andrea Favilli - 86'
Filippo Missori - 63'

CONTEXT

Mantova hosted Avellino in a match where the home side entered as the stronger team, reflected in pre-match structural expectations of 41.7% win probability compared to Avellino's 27.8%. Despite dominating possession with 66% to Avellino's 34%, Mantova suffered a 0-2 defeat. The first half ended level at 0-0, with no goals from either side. Avellino struck twice in the second half, capitalizing on their limited opportunities while Mantova failed to convert their territorial advantage. No red cards were issued, ensuring full squads throughout. This result marked a significant 72.2% deviation, with the outcome not aligning with market-implied probabilities. Efficiency metrics stayed in line with expectations, though xG data was unavailable for deeper analysis. Avellino's clinical approach overturned the pre-match favoritism.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Avellino's victory represented a 72.2% significant structural deviation from expectations favoring Mantova.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be assessed due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome did not align with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable for evaluation.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or impactful events occurred.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards resulted in zero distortion from dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Calzavara

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

P. Capaldo

1st Assistant

M. Pascarella

2nd Assistant

D. Galiffi

4th Official

Mantova F. Modesto
F. Modesto
VS
Avellino D. Ballardini
D. Ballardini
1.33
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.04
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Spezia Rank: W
Virtus Entella Rank: W
Modena Rank: L
Cesena Rank: W
Empoli Rank: D
Juve Stabia Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Catanzaro Rank: D
Palermo Rank: L
Sampdoria Rank: L
Südtirol Rank: W
Virtus Entella Rank: W
Calcio Padova Rank: W
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 4 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Mantova
41.65%
Draw
30.56%
Away Avellino
27.79%

Movement

Changes since opening
Mantova
+41.43%
Draw
+28.64%
Avellino
-70.07%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
26.16
23.61
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Mantova
Avellino
Power Score
26.16
23.61
League Position
12
9
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Mantova — Opponent-weighted form score
Avellino — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Mantova Avellino

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Mantova

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Avellino

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Mantova ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Avellino
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
22.58
21.62
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
21.62
22.58
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Mantova +0.09 Efficiency Index
vs
Avellino -0.09 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Mantova
Avellino
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Mantova ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Avellino
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Mantova Avellino
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Mantova Avellino
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Mantova
Avellino
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Mantova
vs
Avellino
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Mantova Avellino
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Mantova 0.21
Avellino 0.22
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Mantova Avellino
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Mantova 0.07
Avellino 0.00
Mantova
Avellino
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • MAN had peak pressure around 30'.
  • MAN started the game with stronger pressure.
MAN Pressure AVE Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: MAN reached the top pressure at 30' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Mantova MAN Home
7 matches
Avellino AVE Away
Match Record
3
Wins
0
4
Draws
4
0
Losses
3
Goals
8
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
8
+6
Goal Difference
-6

Data last updated: 2026-04-19T00:03:00+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-3-1-2
Pitch
F. Bardi
Italy
24 F. Bardi
A. Dembélé
France
3 A. Dembélé
S. Cella
Italy
29 S. Cella
A. Castellini
Italy
27 A. Castellini
T. Maggioni
Substitution
Italy
96 T. Maggioni
R. Kouda
Italy
80 R. Kouda
D. Wieser
Substitution
Italy
10 D. Wieser
F. Benaissa-Yahia
France
50 F. Benaissa-Yahia
D. Bragantini
Italy
30 D. Bragantini
F. Ruocco
Substitution
Italy
19 F. Ruocco
L. Mancuso
Italy
9 L. Mancuso
Pitch
A. Iannarilli
Italy
1 A. Iannarilli
A. Fontanarosa
Substitution
Italy
63 A. Fontanarosa
A. Izzo
Italy
4 A. Izzo
L. Šimić
Croatia
44 L. Šimić
T. Cancellotti
Italy
29 T. Cancellotti
D. Sounas
Greece
24 D. Sounas
M. Palumbo
Norway
20 M. Palumbo
L. Palmiero
Italy
6 L. Palmiero
T. Biasci
Substitution
Italy
14 T. Biasci
R. Russo
Substitution
Italy
10 R. Russo
C. Patierno
Substitution
Italy
9 C. Patierno

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 18, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 35 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadio Danilo Martelli
Capacity :
7487
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Andrea Calzavara
Pasquale Capaldo
Mattia Pascarella
Davide Galiffi

Statistics

Possession
MAN
62%
AVE
38%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2
2 Big Chances Created 0
12 Shots 6
58 Dangerous attacks 27
66 Possession 34
10 Corners 2
12 Free kicks 18
1 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

20 Throwins 10
5 Goal Kicks 9
21 Dribble Attempts 15
48 Successful Dribbles Percentage 40
113 Ball Safe 107
10 Successful Dribbles 6
7 Goal Attempts 4
0 Injuries 3
0 Assists 2
4 Substitutions 5

Attacking

131 Attacks 67
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

563 Passes 299
29 Successful Long Passes 24
83 Successful Passes Percentage 71
469 Successful Passes 213
60 Long Passes 68
48 Successful Long Passes Percentage 35
10 Key Passes 4

Defensive

14 Tackles 24
56 Duels Won 63
1 Saves 3
6 Interceptions 8

Build-up

18 Total Crosses 7
6 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

18 Fouls 12
0 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Andrea Calzavara

Starting XI ▼

24
Francesco Bardi
Francesco Bardi Goalkeeper
6.61
3
Ali Dembélé
Ali Dembélé Defender
6.76
27
Alessio Castellini
Alessio Castellini Defender
7.03
29
Stefano Cella
Stefano Cella Defender
6.8
10
David Wieser
David Wieser Midfielder
6.61
18
César Falletti
César Falletti
Midfielder81'
6.8
50
Fahem Benaïssa
Fahem Benaïssa Midfielder
6.82
80
Rachid Kouda
Rachid Kouda Midfielder
6.97
96
Tommaso Maggioni
Tommaso Maggioni Midfielder
6.65
17
Nicolò Radaelli
Nicolò Radaelli
Defender58'
6.65
9
Leonardo Mancuso
Leonardo Mancuso Attacker
6.71
19
Francesco Ruocco
Francesco Ruocco Attacker
6.89
77
Nicolò Buso
Nicolò Buso
Attacker58'
6.79
30
Davide Bragantini
Davide Bragantini Attacker
6.99
Referee : Andrea Calzavara

Starting XI ▼

1
Antony Iannarilli
Antony Iannarilli Goalkeeper
6.72
4
Armando Izzo
Armando Izzo Defender
7.17
29
Tommaso Cancellotti
Tommaso Cancellotti Defender
6.67
44
Lorenco Simic
Lorenco Simic Defender
6.96
63
Alessandro Fontanarosa
Alessandro Fontanarosa Defender
6.77
2
Filippo Missori
Filippo Missori
Defender46'
6.78
6
Luca Palmiero
Luca Palmiero Midfielder
6.79
14
Tommaso Biasci
Tommaso Biasci Midfielder
6.95
56
Patrick Enrici
Patrick Enrici
Defender46'
6.67
20
Martin Palumbo
Martin Palumbo Midfielder
6.85
24
Dimitrios Sounas
Dimitrios Sounas Midfielder
6.94
9
Cosimo Patierno
Cosimo Patierno Attacker
6.63
99
Andrea Favilli
Andrea Favilli
Attacker68'
6.56
10
Raffaele Russo
Raffaele Russo Attacker
6.8
7
Gennaro Tutino
Gennaro Tutino
Attacker76'
6.57

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Ali Dembélé
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
90+3'
86'
Event
Andrea Favilli
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
César Falletti → David Wieser
9th Substitution
81'
Event
7th Substitution
76'
76'
Event
8th Substitution
76'
Event
Gennaro Tutino → Raffaele Russo
6th Substitution
68'
Event
Andrea Favilli → Cosimo Patierno
5th Substitution
63'
Event
Filippo Missori
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Nicolò Radaelli → Tommaso Maggioni
4th Substitution
58'
Event
Nicolò Buso → Francesco Ruocco
3rd Substitution
58'
46'
Event
Filippo Missori → Alessandro Fontanarosa
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Patrick Enrici → Tommaso Biasci
1st Substitution

CONCLUSION

Avellino's 2-0 win over possession-dominant Mantova underscores the home team's inefficiency in front of goal despite clear superiority in control. The stronger side per pre-match analysis faltered, allowing the visitors to exploit rare chances post-halftime. This significant deviation highlights Avellino's resilience and finishing prowess against expectations. Without red cards or notable events, the result stems purely from performance variances. Future matches may see Mantova refine their conversion rates, while Avellino builds on this upset momentum. Overall, the outcome challenges assumptions of dominance translating to results.

Mantova vs Avellino preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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Daniels Zorge

Daniels Zorge covers football fixtures with a focus on tactical matchups, playing styles, and key details that shape each game.