Manchester United vs Nottingham Forest Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
Old Trafford Sun, 17 May - 11:30 AM
Premier League
Manchester United MUN
3 Winner 2
Nottingham Forest NFO
Full Time Sun, 17 May 11:30 AM
Round 37 Regular Season
Bryan Mbeumo - 76'
Luke Shaw - 5'
Goal
|
Goal
Morgan Gibbs-White - 78'
Morato - 53'

CONTEXT

In a closely contested Premier League encounter, Manchester United defeated Nottingham Forest by a score of 3-2. The home team took the lead in the first half, going into the break with a 1-0 advantage. Throughout the match, Nottingham Forest maintained a slight edge in possession with 52 percent, yet Manchester United generated significantly higher expected goals totaling 3.87 against their opponent's 1.72. This substantial xG differential of 2.15 underscored the home side's dominance in creating quality chances. No red cards were issued to either team, ensuring a full complement of players on the pitch for the entire duration. As the stronger team according to pre-match assessments, Manchester United's win aligned perfectly with the expected outcome. The minimal deviation level of 5.8 percent further confirmed the consistency between market projections and the actual result.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: The structural deviation registered at a minimal 5.8 percent for Manchester United.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match team assessments.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome proved consistent with the xG distribution.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment held true throughout the match progression.
  • xG expectations: Manchester United posted 3.87 xG compared to 1.72 for Nottingham Forest.
  • Event impact: The 3-2 scoreline reflected sustained attacking pressure from the home side.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred to distort team structures or dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

M. Salisbury

England 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

B. Toner

4th Official

England

M. Perry

1st Assistant

England

N. Aspinall

2nd Assistant

England

League averages

Premier League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 18.63
Yellow cards / match 3.34
Red cards / match 0.09
Penalties / match 0.18
Manchester United M. Carrick
M. Carrick
VS
Nottingham Forest V. de Oliveira Lopes Pereira
V. de Oliveira Lopes Pereira
1.88
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.36
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sunderland Rank: 81 D
Liverpool Rank: 93 W
Brentford Rank: 88 W
Chelsea Rank: 88 W
Leeds United Rank: 88 L
AFC Bournemouth Rank: 90 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Newcastle United Rank: 89 D
Chelsea Rank: 89 W
Sunderland Rank: 81 W
Burnley Rank: 77 W
Aston Villa Rank: 91 D
Tottenham Hotspur Rank: 84 W
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 1 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Manchester United
94.16%
Draw
5.65%
Away Nottingham Forest
0.19%

Movement

Changes since opening
Manchester United
+3.31%
Draw
-3.02%
Nottingham Forest
-0.28%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
91.86
71.4
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Manchester United
Nottingham Forest
Power Score
91.86
71.4
League Position
3
16
Global Rank
7
23

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

vs
Manchester United Opponent-weighted form score
Nottingham Forest Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Manchester United Nottingham Forest

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

vs

Manchester United

Left / Center / Right
Opposition half density
vs season average

Nottingham Forest

Left / Center / Right
Opposition half density
vs season average

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Manchester United ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Nottingham Forest
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
66.46
25.19
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
25.19
66.46
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Manchester United +4.48 Efficiency Index
vs
Nottingham Forest -4.48 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Manchester United
Nottingham Forest
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Manchester United
vs
Nottingham Forest
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Manchester United Nottingham Forest
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
vs
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Manchester United Nottingham Forest
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
vs
Manchester United
Nottingham Forest
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Manchester United
vs
Nottingham Forest
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Manchester United Nottingham Forest
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Manchester United Nottingham Forest
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
Manchester United
Nottingham Forest
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • MUN had peak pressure around 100'.
  • MUN started the game with stronger pressure.
MUN Pressure NFO Pressure
Pressure Index: MUN reached the top pressure at 100' (83.99).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 10 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Manchester United MUN Home
10 matches
Nottingham Forest NFO Away
Match Record
6
Wins
3
1
Draws
1
3
Losses
6
Goals
19
Goals Scored
10
10
Goals Conceded
19
+9
Goal Difference
-9

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T08:58:54+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
S. Lammens
Belgium
31 S. Lammens
H. Maguire
England
5 H. Maguire
L. Martínez
Argentina
6 L. Martínez
L. Shaw
England
23 L. Shaw
C. Casimiro
Substitution
Brazil
K. Mainoo
England
37 K. Mainoo
A. Traoré
Ivory Coast
16 A. Traoré
M. Carneiro Da Cunha
Substitution
Brazil
B. Mbeumo
Substitution
Cameroon
19 B. Mbeumo
Pitch
M. Sels
Belgium
26 M. Sels
L. Netz
Substitution
Germany
25 L. Netz
F. Rodrigues
Brazil
4 F. Rodrigues
N. Milenković
Serbia
31 N. Milenković
N. Williams
Wales
3 N. Williams
M. Gibbs-White
England
10 (C) M. Gibbs-White
E. Anderson
England
8 E. Anderson
N. Domínguez
Substitution
Argentina
16 N. Domínguez
O. Giraud-Hutchinson
Substitution
Jamaica
21 O. Giraud-Hutchinson
C. Wood
Substitution
New Zealand
11 C. Wood
I. da Cruz
Substitution
Brazil
19 I. da Cruz

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 11:30 AM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, England · Round 37 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Old Trafford
Capacity :
74879
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Michael Salisbury
Ben Toner
Marc Perry
Natalie Aspinall

Statistics

Possession
MUN
51%
NFO
49%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 2
7 Big Chances Created 4
29 Shots 11
58 Dangerous attacks 42
48 Possession 52
7 Corners 6
5 Free kicks 11
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

1 Assists 2
3 Substitutions 5
47 Successful Dribbles Percentage 48
19 Dribble Attempts 23
2 Hit Woodwork 0
13 Throwins 21
9 Successful Dribbles 11
6 Goal Kicks 11
12 Successful Headers 6
77 Ball Safe 71
15 Goal Attempts 5

Attacking

77 Attacks 74
5 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

31 Successful Long Passes 15
69 Successful Long Passes Percentage 38
87 Successful Passes Percentage 84
438 Passes 472
383 Successful Passes 398
45 Long Passes 40
22 Key Passes 10

Defensive

16 Tackles 20
42 Duels Won 47
10 Interceptions 12
2 Saves 5

Build-up

16 Total Crosses 20
7 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

0 Offsides 1
11 Fouls 5

Lineup

Referee : Michael Salisbury

Starting XI

31
Senne Lammens
Senne Lammens Goalkeeper
6.78
2
Diogo Dalot
Diogo Dalot Defender
6.79
5
Harry Maguire
Harry Maguire Defender
6.82
6
Lisandro Martínez
Lisandro Martínez Defender
7.53
23
Luke Shaw
Luke Shaw Defender
7.05
8
Bruno Fernandes
Bruno Fernandes (C) Midfielder
8.09
10
Matheus Cunha
Matheus Cunha Midfielder
7.97
13
Patrick Dorgu
Patrick Dorgu
Defender80'
6.86
16
Amad Diallo
Amad Diallo Midfielder
6.55
18
Casemiro
Casemiro Midfielder
6.77
7
Mason Mount
Mason Mount
Midfielder81'
6.98
37
Kobbie Mainoo
Kobbie Mainoo Midfielder
6.92
19
Bryan Mbeumo
Bryan Mbeumo Attacker
6.45
11
Joshua Zirkzee
Joshua Zirkzee
Attacker80'
6.36
Referee : Michael Salisbury

Starting XI

26
Matz Sels
Matz Sels Goalkeeper
6.86
3
Neco Williams
Neco Williams Defender
6.69
4
Morato
Morato Defender
7.14
25
Luca Netz
Luca Netz Defender
6.08
23
Jair Cunha
Jair Cunha
Defender84'
6.71
31
Nikola Milenković
Nikola Milenković Defender
6.16
8
Elliot Anderson
Elliot Anderson Midfielder
8.47
10
Morgan Gibbs-White
Morgan Gibbs-White (C) Midfielder
7.11
16
Nicolás Domínguez
Nicolás Domínguez Midfielder
7.09
6
Ibrahim Sangaré
Ibrahim Sangaré
Midfielder70'
6.75
21
Omari Hutchinson
Omari Hutchinson Midfielder
6.49
29
Dilane Bakwa
Dilane Bakwa
Attacker70'
6.59
11
Chris Wood
Chris Wood Attacker
6.63
9
Taiwo Awoniyi
Taiwo Awoniyi
Attacker70'
6.75
19
Igor Jesus
Igor Jesus Attacker
6.56
24
James McAtee
James McAtee
Midfielder84'
6.7

Events

2ND-HALF
90+4'
Event
Elliot Anderson
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Luke Shaw
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
90+3'
84'
Event
Jair Cunha  Luca Netz
7th Substitution
84'
Event
James McAtee Igor Jesus
8th Substitution
Event
Mason Mount Casemiro
6th Substitution
81'
Event
Patrick Dorgu Matheus Cunha
4th Substitution
80'
Event
Joshua Zirkzee Bryan Mbeumo
5th Substitution
80'
Event
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
78'
78'
Event
Morgan Gibbs-White
Left foot shot / 5th Goal
Event
Bryan Mbeumo
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
76'
70'
Event
Taiwo Awoniyi  Chris Wood 
1st Substitution
70'
Event
Dilane Bakwa Omari Hutchinson 
2nd Substitution
70'
Event
Ibrahim Sangaré Nicolás Domínguez
3rd Substitution
Event
Goal confirmed
57'
Event
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
55'
53'
Event
Morato
Header / 2nd Goal
1ST-HALF
Event
Luke Shaw
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
5'

Match Commentary

78
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Casemiro from Manchester United receives a yellow card for a foul.
78
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Nottingham Forest scores as Morgan Gibbs-White shoots with his left foot from the center of the box into the left corner, assisted by Elliot Anderson. The match score is now Manchester United 3, Nottingham Forest 2.
78
Attempt Attempt
Matheus Cunha's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. Bruno Fernandes provided the assist.
76
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Manchester United 3, Nottingham Forest 1. Bryan Mbeumo scores for Manchester United with a left-footed shot from the center of the box into the left corner, assisted by Bruno Fernandes' cross.
75
Attempt Attempt
Morgan Gibbs-White's shot from inside the six-yard box with his left foot is blocked on the left side. Taiwo Awoniyi provided the assist with a through ball.
74
Attempt Attempt
Igor Jesus of Nottingham Forest has a shot blocked from the right side of the box, assisted by Morgan Gibbs-White.
74
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Nottingham Forest after Lisandro Martínez concedes.
73
Update Update
Bryan Mbeumo's header from the center of the box is blocked. The assist came from Matheus Cunha's cross.
72
Update Update
Offside called against Nottingham Forest. Taiwo Awoniyi is offside.
72
Update Update
Handball by Luke Shaw of Manchester United.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Nottingham Forest: Dilane Bakwa replaces Omari Hutchinson.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Nottingham Forest: Taiwo Awoniyi replaces Chris Wood.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Nottingham Forest: Ibrahim Sangaré replaces Nicolás Domínguez.
68
Attempt Attempt
Matheus Cunha's right-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked. The assist came from Bruno Fernandes.
68
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Manchester United after Neco Williams concedes.
67
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Manchester United after Matz Sels concedes.
67
Attempt Attempt
Amad Diallo of Manchester United makes an attacking attempt, shooting with his left foot from the right side of the box. The shot is saved by Nottingham Forest's goalkeeper Matz Sels, who is positioned in the center of the goal. The assist comes from Casemiro.
65
Update Update
Foul committed by Luke Shaw - Manchester United.
65
Update Update
Omari Hutchinson of Nottingham Forest won a free kick in defense.
64
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Bryan Mbeumo of Manchester United shot with his right foot from the center of the box, just missing the goal. The assist was provided by Bruno Fernandes.
64
Update Update
Nikola Milenkovic from Nottingham Forest won a free kick in defense.
64
Update Update
Foul committed by Harry Maguire - Manchester United.
63
Update Update
Casemiro's header from the center of the box is blocked. The assist came from Bruno Fernandes, who delivered the cross.
63
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Manchester United after a concession by Igor Jesus.
62
Update Update
Amad Diallo from Manchester United won a free kick on the right wing.
62
Update Update
Foul committed by Morato against Nottingham Forest.
62
Attempt Attempt
Morgan Gibbs-White of Nottingham Forest attempts an attack, shooting with his right foot from the center of the box. The shot is saved by Manchester United's goalkeeper, Senne Lammens, in the center of the goal.
57
Update Update
VAR Decision: Goal confirmed for Manchester United. The match score is now 2-1 against Nottingham Forest, with Matheus Cunha scoring.
55
Attempt Attempt
Bryan Mbeumo's left-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. The assist came from Diogo Dalot's cross.
55
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Matheus Cunha scores for Manchester United with a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the right corner. The goal is confirmed after a VAR review. The score is now 2-1 in favor of Manchester United.
53
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Nottingham Forest equalizes to 1-1 with a header from Morato into the left corner, assisted by Elliot Anderson's cross following a corner.
53
Corner Corner
Nottingham Forest wins a corner after Luke Shaw concedes.
52
Update Update
Fouled by Casemiro from Manchester United.
52
Update Update
Elliot Anderson of Nottingham Forest won a free kick in defense.
51
Attempt Attempt
Harry Maguire's shot for Manchester United from a difficult position on the right is blocked. Matheus Cunha provided the assist.
50
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Manchester United after Neco Williams concedes.
48
Update Update
Foul committed by Amad Diallo of Manchester United.
48
Update Update
Elliot Anderson of Nottingham Forest won a free kick in defense.
47
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Bryan Mbeumo of Manchester United shot with his right foot from the center of the box but it went high. Assist from Amad Diallo.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Manchester United leading Nottingham Forest 1-0.
45
Update Update
Luke Shaw of Manchester United won a free kick in defense.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 1 minute of added time.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Matheus Cunha against Manchester United.
45
Update Update
The second half starts with Manchester United leading Nottingham Forest 1-0.
45
Update Update
Neco Williams of Nottingham Forest commits a foul.
45
Update Update
Neco Williams from Nottingham Forest won a free kick in defense.
44
Corner Corner
Chris Wood of Nottingham Forest missed a header from the right side of the six-yard box. The assist came from Neco Williams, who delivered a cross after a corner.
44
Corner Corner
Nottingham Forest wins a corner after Lisandro Martínez concedes.
42
Corner Corner
Amad Diallo of Manchester United misses a chance as he heads the ball from the center of the box, sending it high. The assist came from Diogo Dalot, who delivered a cross following a corner.
42
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Manchester United after Nikola Milenkovic concedes.
42
Attempt Attempt
Bruno Fernandes of Manchester United has a shot blocked from a difficult position on the right, assisted by Casemiro.
41
Corner Corner
Nottingham Forest wins a corner after Luke Shaw concedes.
39
Update Update
Amad Diallo of Manchester United commits a foul.
39
Update Update
Nicolás Domínguez from Nottingham Forest won a free kick in defense.
38
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Manchester United after Morato concedes.
38
Attempt Attempt
Lisandro Martínez's left-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked.
33
Corner Corner
Nicolás Domínguez of Nottingham Forest misses a chance with a header from inside the six-yard box, hitting close to the top left corner but not scoring. The assist came from Elliot Anderson's cross.
32
Update Update
Morgan Gibbs-White of Nottingham Forest won a free kick on the left wing.
32
Update Update
Foul committed by Diogo Dalot of Manchester United.
31
Update Update
Bruno Fernandes from Manchester United misses a chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box, sending the ball high and wide to the right. Lisandro Martínez provided the assist.
29
Update Update
Kobbie Mainoo of Manchester United won a free kick in defense.
29
Update Update
Elliot Anderson commits a foul for Nottingham Forest.
28
Update Update
Foul by Igor Jesus of Nottingham Forest.
28
Attempt Attempt
Nikola Milenkovic of Nottingham Forest missed a chance with an attempt from the center of the box, shooting to the left. The assist came from Nicolás Domínguez, who provided a cross.
28
Update Update
Casemiro from Manchester United won a free kick in defense.
26
Corner Corner
Nottingham Forest wins a corner after Casemiro concedes.
24
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Nottingham Forest after Lisandro Martínez concedes.
21
Attempt Attempt
Morgan Gibbs-White from Nottingham Forest attempts a shot with his left foot from the center of the box, but it is saved by Manchester United's goalkeeper Senne Lammens, with an assist from Omari Hutchinson.
21
Attempt Attempt
Bryan Mbeumo hits the left post with a left-footed shot from inside the six-yard box on the left side, assisted by Matheus Cunha during a fast break.
21
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Casemiro of Manchester United takes a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it goes close and misses to the left after a fast break.
16
Update Update
Igor Jesus of Nottingham Forest won a free kick in defense.
16
Update Update
Fouled by Luke Shaw of Manchester United.
15
Attempt Attempt
Matheus Cunha's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The assist was provided by Bruno Fernandes.
15
Attempt Attempt
Casemiro's shot from outside the box is blocked. The assist was provided by Kobbie Mainoo.
14
Attempt Attempt
Bruno Fernandes from Manchester United attempts an attack with a right-footed shot from outside the box, but Matz Sels, the Nottingham Forest goalkeeper, saves it in the center of the goal. The assist comes from Matheus Cunha.
8
Update Update
Foul committed by Amad Diallo of Manchester United.
8
Update Update
Elliot Anderson from Nottingham Forest won a free kick in defense.
5
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Manchester United lead Nottingham Forest 1-0. Luke Shaw scores for Manchester United with a left-footed shot from the left side of the box.

CONCLUSION

The match between Manchester United and Nottingham Forest concluded with a narrow 3-2 win for the home side, reflecting their superior chance creation as evidenced by the xG figures. Despite trailing in possession, Manchester United's efficiency in front of goal proved decisive in securing the points. The absence of any disciplinary issues allowed for an open and flowing game without interruptions from sendings off. Alignment between expected goals and the final outcome suggests that the result was a product of sustained pressure and clinical finishing rather than variance. Nottingham Forest showed resilience in maintaining possession but fell short in converting opportunities. Overall this victory reinforces Manchester United's attacking output while highlighting conversion areas for the visitors.

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Daniels Zorge

Daniels Zorge covers football fixtures with a focus on tactical matchups, playing styles, and key details that shape each game.