Manchester United vs Aston Villa Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
Old Trafford Sun, 15 Mar - 2:00 PM
Premier League
Manchester United MUN
3 Winner 1
Aston Villa AVL
Full Time Sun, 15 Mar 2:00 PM
Benjamin Sesko - 81'
Matheus Cunha - 71'
Casemiro - 53'
Goal
|
Goal
Ross Barkley - 64'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Manchester United 3–1 Aston Villa. The result saw Manchester United take the points. Manchester United showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 53%–47%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Manchester United showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Taylor

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

G. Beswick

1st Assistant

A. Nunn

2nd Assistant

B. Toner

4th Official

Manchester United M. Carrick
M. Carrick
VS
Aston Villa U. Emery Etxegoien
U. Emery Etxegoien
1.96
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.41
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Crystal Palace Rank: 87 W
Everton Rank: 87 W
West Ham United Rank: 83 D
Tottenham Hotspur Rank: 87 W
Fulham Rank: 87 W
Arsenal Rank: 100 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Crystal Palace Rank: 87 D
Nottingham Forest Rank: 86 W
Arsenal Rank: 100 L
Chelsea Rank: 94 W
Manchester United Rank: 91 W
West Ham United Rank: 83 W
37
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
37 - 9 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Manchester United
55.03%
Draw
23.53%
Away Aston Villa
21.44%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
90.99
90.38
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Manchester United
Aston Villa
Power Score
90.99
90.38
League Position
3
4
Global Rank
9
11

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Manchester United — Opponent-weighted form score
Aston Villa — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Manchester United Aston Villa

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Manchester United

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Aston Villa

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Manchester United ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Aston Villa
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
34.25
24.68
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
24.68
34.25
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Manchester United +1.09 Efficiency Index
vs
Aston Villa -1.09 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Manchester United
Aston Villa
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Manchester United ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Aston Villa
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Manchester United Aston Villa
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Manchester United Aston Villa
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Manchester United
Aston Villa
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Manchester United MUN Home
11 matches
Aston Villa AVL Away
Match Record
8
Wins
1
2
Draws
2
1
Losses
8
Goals
18
Goals Scored
5
5
Goals Conceded
18
+13
Goal Difference
-13

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T02:10:19+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
S. Lammens
Belgium
31 S. Lammens
J. Dalot Teixeira
Portugal
2 J. Dalot Teixeira
L. Yoro
France
15 L. Yoro
H. Maguire
England
5 H. Maguire
L. Shaw
England
23 L. Shaw
C. Casimiro
Substitution
Brazil
18 C. Casimiro
K. Mainoo
England
37 K. Mainoo
A. Traoré
Ivory Coast
16 A. Traoré
B. Fernandes
Portugal
8 (C) B. Fernandes
M. Carneiro Da Cunha
Brazil
10 M. Carneiro Da Cunha
B. Mbeumo
Substitution
Cameroon
19 B. Mbeumo
Pitch
D. Martínez
Argentina
23 D. Martínez
L. Digne
Substitution
France
12 L. Digne
T. Mings
England
5 T. Mings
E. Konsa Ngoyo
England
4 E. Konsa Ngoyo
L. Bogarde
Netherlands
26 L. Bogarde
R. Barkley
Substitution
England
6 R. Barkley
A. Mvom Onana
Belgium
24 A. Mvom Onana
E. Buendía
Substitution
Argentina
10 E. Buendía
J. McGinn
Substitution
Scotland
7 (C) J. McGinn
M. Rogers
England
27 M. Rogers
O. Watkins
Substitution
England
11 O. Watkins

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 15, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, England
Stadium :
Old Trafford
Capacity :
74879
Attendance :
73997
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Gary Beswick
Adam Nunn
Ben Toner
Anthony Taylor

Statistics

Possession
MUN
53%
AVL
47%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 3
16 Shots 9
43 Dangerous attacks 52
53 Possession 47
6 Corners 6
6 Free kicks 11
3 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

11 Throwins 11
12 Successful Headers 8
4 Successful Dribbles 5
9 Dribble Attempts 14
44 Successful Dribbles Percentage 36
11 Goal Attempts 5
6 Goal Kicks 7
2 Assists 0
80 Ball Safe 63
2 Substitutions 5
1 Injuries 1

Attacking

106 Attacks 74
2 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

85 Successful Passes Percentage 85
22 Successful Long Passes 16
409 Successful Passes 360
479 Passes 426
45 Long Passes 39
13 Key Passes 6
49 Successful Long Passes Percentage 41

Defensive

12 Interceptions 7
18 Tackles 16
38 Duels Won 39
1 Saves 3

Build-up

21 Total Crosses 17
2 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

10 Fouls 5
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Anthony Taylor

Starting XI ▼

31
Senne Lammens
Senne Lammens Goalkeeper
6.37
2
Diogo Dalot
Diogo Dalot Defender
6.71
5
Harry Maguire
Harry Maguire Defender
6.84
15
Leny Yoro
Leny Yoro Defender
6.86
23
Luke Shaw
Luke Shaw Defender
6.94
8
Bruno Fernandes
Bruno Fernandes (C) Midfielder
8.7
10
Matheus Cunha
Matheus Cunha Midfielder
7.37
16
Amad Diallo
Amad Diallo Midfielder
7.16
18
Casemiro
Casemiro Midfielder
7.56
25
Manuel Ugarte
Manuel Ugarte
Midfielder90+1'
6.33
37
Kobbie Mainoo
Kobbie Mainoo Midfielder
7.02
19
Bryan Mbeumo
Bryan Mbeumo Attacker
6.9
30
Benjamin Sesko
Benjamin Sesko
Attacker75'
6.99
Referee : Anthony Taylor

Starting XI ▼

23
Emiliano Martínez
Emiliano Martínez Goalkeeper
6.25
4
Ezri Konsa
Ezri Konsa Defender
6.53
5
Tyrone Mings
Tyrone Mings Defender
6.32
12
Lucas Digne
Lucas Digne Defender
6.6
22
Ian Maatsen
Ian Maatsen
Defender82'
6.45
26
Lamare Bogarde
Lamare Bogarde Defender
5.79
6
Ross Barkley
Ross Barkley Midfielder
7.73
21
Douglas Luiz
Douglas Luiz
Midfielder82'
6.47
7
John McGinn
John McGinn (C) Midfielder
6.58
31
Leon Bailey
Leon Bailey
Attacker61'
6.45
10
Emiliano Buendía
Emiliano Buendía Midfielder
6.89
16
Andrés García
Andrés García
Defender86'
24
Amadou Onana
Amadou Onana Midfielder
6.59
27
Morgan Rogers
Morgan Rogers Midfielder
7.02
11
Ollie Watkins
Ollie Watkins Attacker
6.19
18
Tammy Abraham
Tammy Abraham
Attacker60'
6.58

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Harry Maguire
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
90+6'
Event
Manuel Ugarte → Casemiro
7th Substitution
90+1'
86'
Event
Andrés García → Emiliano Buendía
6th Substitution
82'
Event
Douglas Luiz → Ross Barkley
4th Substitution
82'
Event
Ian Maatsen → Lucas Digne
5th Substitution
Event
Benjamin Sesko
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
81'
Event
Benjamin Sesko → Bryan Mbeumo
3rd Substitution
75'
Event
Leny Yoro
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
72'
Event
Matheus Cunha
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
71'
69'
Event
Emiliano Buendía
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
64'
Event
Ross Barkley
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
61'
Event
Leon Bailey → John McGinn
2nd Substitution
Event
Casemiro
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
60'
60'
Event
Tammy Abraham → Ollie Watkins
1st Substitution
Event
Casemiro
Header / 1st Goal
53'
1ST-HALF
41'
Event
Ollie Watkins
Argument / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Harry Maguire from Manchester United committed a foul.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Harry Maguire from Manchester United has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the final score: Manchester United 3, Aston Villa 1.
90
Update Update
Morgan Rogers from Aston Villa earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Manchester United: Manuel Ugarte replaces Casemiro.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Manchester United: Manuel Ugarte replaces Casemiro.
90
Update Update
Offside call against Manchester United. Amad Diallo has been flagged for being offside.
90
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Amad Diallo from Manchester United takes a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Matheus Cunha.
90
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Morgan Rogers from Aston Villa took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it went wide to the left. The assist came from Douglas Luiz.
89
Corner Corner
Aston Villa has been awarded a corner kick after Casemiro allowed the ball to go out of play.
88
Corner Corner
Aston Villa earns a corner kick after Casemiro allows the ball to go out.
86
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Aston Villa: Andrés García comes on to replace Emiliano Buendía due to an injury.
86
Corner Corner
Aston Villa has been awarded a corner kick after Matheus Cunha allowed the ball to go out of play.
85
Update Update
The pause has ended, and they're set to resume play.
85
Update Update
Match halted due to an injury to Emiliano Buendía from Aston Villa.
84
Update Update
Leon Bailey from Aston Villa earned a free kick on the right flank.
84
Update Update
Luke Shaw of Manchester United committed a foul.
83
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Aston Villa after Luke Shaw allowed the ball to go out.
82
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Aston Villa: Ian Maatsen comes on to replace Lucas Digne.
82
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Aston Villa: Douglas Luiz is coming on to replace Ross Barkley.
81
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Manchester United leads 3-1 against Aston Villa. Benjamin Sesko scores for Manchester United, firing a right-footed shot from the middle of the box into the bottom left corner.
78
Update Update
The pause has concluded. They are set to resume play.
76
Update Update
Match halted due to an injury to Matheus Cunha from Manchester United.
76
Update Update
Tyrone Mings from Aston Villa has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
76
Update Update
Bruno Fernandes committed a foul for Manchester United.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Manchester United: Benjamin Sesko is coming on to replace Bryan Mbeumo.
72
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Leny Yoro of Manchester United has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
71
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Manchester United takes the lead with a score of 2-1 against Aston Villa. Matheus Cunha scores with a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area.
69
Update Update
Emiliano Buendía - Aston Villa.
69
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Emiliano Buendía from Aston Villa has been shown a yellow card.
69
Update Update
Emiliano Buendía - Aston Villa.
64
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! It's now Manchester United 1, Aston Villa 1. Ross Barkley scores for Aston Villa with a left-footed shot from the center of the box, finding the bottom left corner following a corner kick.
63
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Amadou Onana from Aston Villa takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it’s expertly stopped by Senne Lammens of Manchester United, who makes a save in the upper center of the goal.
63
Corner Corner
Aston Villa has been awarded a corner kick after Senne Lammens allowed the ball to go out.
63
Update Update
Opportunity wasted. Leon Bailey of Aston Villa attempted a header from the center of the box but failed to convert. The assist came from Lucas Digne, who delivered a cross.
62
Attempt Attempt
A new offensive play is underway. Diogo Dalot from Manchester United takes a shot from the middle of the box, but Emiliano Martínez of Aston Villa makes a save, reaching up to stop it at the top center of the goal. The assist came from Casemiro, who delivered a precise through ball.
61
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Aston Villa: Leon Bailey replaces John McGinn.
60
Update Update
Opportunity wasted! Tyrone Mings of Aston Villa had a header from the middle of the penalty area but couldn't find the target. The assist came from John McGinn, who delivered a cross.
60
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Casemiro of Manchester United has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
60
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Aston Villa: Tammy Abraham replaces Ollie Watkins.
59
Update Update
Morgan Rogers from Aston Villa earned a free kick in an offensive position.
59
Update Update
Casemiro committed a foul for Manchester United.
57
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Emiliano Buendía from Aston Villa takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
57
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Aston Villa after Casemiro allowed the ball to go out.
56
Update Update
Casemiro committed a foul for Manchester United.
56
Update Update
Morgan Rogers from Aston Villa was awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
54
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Morgan Rogers from Aston Villa fires a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Amadou Onana.
53
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Manchester United takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Aston Villa. Casemiro scores with a header from the right side of the six-yard box, directing it into the left corner of the net. The assist comes from Bruno Fernandes, who delivered a precise cross following a corner kick.
52
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive play unfolds as Bryan Mbeumo of Manchester United takes a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area. However, Emiliano Martínez, the Aston Villa goalkeeper, makes a crucial save right in the center of the goal. The assist came from Bruno Fernandes.
52
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Manchester United after Lucas Digne allowed the ball to go out.
51
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Bruno Fernandes of Manchester United takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Amad Diallo.
51
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Manchester United after Ross Barkley allowed the ball to go out.
51
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity. Matheus Cunha from Manchester United attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area but sent it wide to the left following a corner kick.
48
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity. Amad Diallo of Manchester United attempted a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it narrowly missed the top right corner. The assist came from Bryan Mbeumo.
48
Update Update
Match is currently on hold - Manchester United.
48
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the score tied at Manchester United 0, Aston Villa 0.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be one minute of stoppage time.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Aston Villa after Kobbie Mainoo allowed the ball to go out.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score still tied at Manchester United 0, Aston Villa 0.
44
Update Update
Leny Yoro from Manchester United committed a foul.
44
Update Update
Ollie Watkins from Aston Villa earned a free kick in an offensive position.
43
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Bruno Fernandes of Manchester United attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area but failed to find the target. The assist came from Kobbie Mainoo during a quick counterattack.
41
Update Update
Aston Villa has been called for offside. Ollie Watkins is positioned beyond the last defender.
41
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ollie Watkins from Aston Villa has been shown a yellow card.
38
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Diogo Dalot from Manchester United took a left-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but it sailed over the crossbar. The assist came from Bruno Fernandes.
37
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Casemiro from Manchester United takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Bruno Fernandes.
35
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Manchester United after Lamare Bogarde allowed the ball to go out.
35
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity. Bryan Mbeumo of Manchester United attempted a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area following a corner, but it went wide to the left.
28
Update Update
Match halted due to an injury to Amadou Onana of Aston Villa.
28
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
24
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. John McGinn from Aston Villa attempted a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it went over the goal and to the right. The assist came from Lucas Digne.
22
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Manchester United after Tyrone Mings allowed the ball to go out.
22
Update Update
Another offensive push from Manchester United. Amad Diallo attempts a header from the center of the penalty area, but Emiliano Martínez of Aston Villa makes a great save, diving to his left. The assist came from Harry Maguire, who also headed the ball.
21
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Manchester United after Lamare Bogarde allowed the ball to go out.
20
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Bruno Fernandes from Manchester United fires a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The setup came from Amad Diallo.
17
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Manchester United after Lucas Digne allowed the ball to go out.
13
Update Update
Ollie Watkins committed a foul for Aston Villa.
13
Update Update
Casemiro from Manchester United has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
12
Update Update
Diogo Dalot from Manchester United committed a foul.
12
Update Update
Emiliano Buendía from Aston Villa earned a free kick in the defensive area.
11
Update Update
Amad Diallo from Manchester United has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
11
Update Update
John McGinn from Aston Villa committed a foul.
9
Update Update
Opportunity wasted. Emiliano Buendía from Aston Villa attempted a header from the center of the box but sent it wide to the left. The assist came from Morgan Rogers, who delivered a cross.
9
Update Update
Emiliano Buendía from Aston Villa earned a free kick in an offensive position.
9
Update Update
Casemiro from Manchester United committed a foul.
8
Update Update
Casemiro commits a foul for Manchester United.
8
Update Update
John McGinn from Aston Villa earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
5
Update Update
Luke Shaw from Manchester United committed a foul.
5
Update Update
John McGinn from Aston Villa committed a foul.
5
Update Update
Harry Maguire from Manchester United has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
5
Update Update
John McGinn from Aston Villa has earned a free kick in the defensive area.
1
Update Update
Morgan Rogers committed a foul against Aston Villa.
1
Update Update
Luke Shaw from Manchester United has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Manchester United exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Manchester United vs Aston Villa preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

About BestPreviews Methodology & FAQ More Match Reports

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Premier League, England View all league clusters View methodology and FAQ