Manchester City vs Liverpool Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 FA Cup, England
Etihad Stadium Sat, 4 Apr - 11:45 AM
FA Cup
Manchester City MCI
4 Winner 0
Liverpool LIV
Full Time Sat, 4 Apr 11:45 AM
Quarter Finals
Erling Haaland - 57', 45+2', 39' (P)
Antoine Semenyo - 50'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match between Manchester City and Liverpool has officially finished, with the home side securing a commanding 4-0 full-time victory. Manchester City established a comfortable 2-0 lead by half-time and maintained their momentum to complete a dominant performance over the full ninety minutes. This result successfully aligned with the pre-match market, which favored Manchester City as the stronger team with a

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Manchester City showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

M. Oliver

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

T. Wood

2nd Assistant

P. Tierney

4th Official

S. Burt

1st Assistant

Manchester City P. Lijnders
P. Lijnders
VS
Liverpool A. Slot
A. Slot
3
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
3
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Newcastle United Rank: 90 W
Salford City Rank: 68 W
Exeter City Rank: 65 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Wolverhampton Wanderers Rank: 81 W
Brighton & Hove Albion Rank: 90 W
Barnsley Rank: 68 W
14
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
14 - 19 - 24
24

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Manchester City
54.23%
Draw
22.61%
Away Liverpool
23.17%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
97.49
92.72
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Manchester City
Liverpool
Power Score
97.49
92.72
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
3
7

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Manchester City — Opponent-weighted form score
Liverpool — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Manchester City Liverpool

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Manchester City

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Liverpool

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Manchester City ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Liverpool
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
25.61
27.45
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
27.45
25.61
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Manchester City -0.15 Efficiency Index
vs
Liverpool +0.15 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Manchester City
Liverpool
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Manchester City ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Liverpool
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Manchester City Liverpool
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Manchester City Liverpool
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Manchester City
Liverpool
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Manchester City
vs
Liverpool
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Manchester City Liverpool
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Manchester City 0.35
Liverpool 0.18
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Manchester City Liverpool
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Manchester City 0.00
Liverpool 0.13
Manchester City
Liverpool
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 57 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Manchester City MCI Home
57 matches
Liverpool LIV Away
Match Record
14
Wins
24
19
Draws
19
24
Losses
14
Goals
80
Goals Scored
85
85
Goals Conceded
80
-5
Goal Difference
+5

Data last updated: 2026-04-05T00:01:31+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-2-2
Pitch
J. Trafford
England
1 J. Trafford
M. Nunes
Portugal
27 M. Nunes
A. Khusanov
Uzbekistan
45 A. Khusanov
M. Guehi
England
15 M. Guehi
N. O'Reilly
England
33 N. O'Reilly
Rodri
Substitution
Spain
16 Rodri
B. Silva
Portugal
20 B. Silva
A. Semenyo
Substitution
Ghana
42 A. Semenyo
M. Cherki
Substitution
France
10 M. Cherki
J. Doku
Substitution
Belgium
11 J. Doku
E. Haaland
Substitution
Norway
9 E. Haaland
Pitch
G. Mamardashvili
Georgia
25 G. Mamardashvili
Milos Kerkez
Hungary
6 Milos Kerkez
V. van Dijk
Netherlands
4 V. van Dijk
I. Konaté
France
5 I. Konaté
J. Gomez
Substitution
England
2 J. Gomez
C. Jones
England
17 C. Jones
R. Gravenberch
Substitution
Netherlands
38 R. Gravenberch
F. Wirtz
Substitution
Germany
7 F. Wirtz
D. Szoboszlai
Hungary
8 D. Szoboszlai
H. Ekitike
Substitution
France
22 H. Ekitike
M. Salah
Substitution
Egypt
11 M. Salah

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 04, 2026, 11:45 AM
Competition :
2025/2026 FA Cup, England · Quarter Finals
Stadium :
Etihad Stadium
Capacity :
53400
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Tim Wood
Paul Tierney
Stuart Burt
Michael Oliver

Statistics

Possession
MCI
50%
LIV
50%

Top Statistics

4 Goals 0
4 Big Chances Created 2
6 Shots 8
31 Dangerous attacks 60
49 Possession 51
4 Corners 2
10 Free kicks 15
3 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

8 Goal Kicks 4
1 Penalties 1
11 Throwins 18
18 Dribble Attempts 21
84 Ball Safe 59
12 Successful Dribbles 9
67 Successful Dribbles Percentage 43
3 Assists 0
9 Goal Attempts 10
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

86 Attacks 103
0 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

22 Long Passes 36
89 Successful Passes Percentage 89
10 Key Passes 7
442 Successful Passes 449
494 Passes 503
13 Successful Long Passes 14
59 Successful Long Passes Percentage 39

Defensive

5 Saves 3
16 Tackles 11
44 Duels Won 42
8 Interceptions 13

Build-up

9 Total Crosses 16
2 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

15 Fouls 10
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Michael Oliver

Starting XI ▼

1
James Trafford
James Trafford Goalkeeper
15
Marc Guéhi
Marc Guéhi Defender
27
Matheus Nunes
Matheus Nunes Defender
33
Nico O'Reilly
Nico O'Reilly Defender
45
Abdukodir Khusanov
Abdukodir Khusanov Defender
10
Rayan Cherki
Rayan Cherki Midfielder
4
Tijjani Reijnders
Tijjani Reijnders
Midfielder71'
11
Jérémy Doku
Jérémy Doku Midfielder
26
Savinho
Savinho
Attacker62'
16
Rodri
Rodri Midfielder
14
Nico González
Nico González
Midfielder62'
20
Bernardo Silva
Bernardo Silva Midfielder
42
Antoine Semenyo
Antoine Semenyo Midfielder
47
Phil Foden
Phil Foden
Midfielder71'
9
Erling Haaland
Erling Haaland Attacker
3
7
Omar Marmoush
Omar Marmoush
Attacker77'
Referee : Michael Oliver

Starting XI ▼

25
Giorgi Mamardashvili
Giorgi Mamardashvili Goalkeeper
2
Joe Gomez
Joe Gomez Defender
30
Jeremie Frimpong
Jeremie Frimpong
Defender62'
4
Virgil van Dijk
Virgil van Dijk Defender
5
Ibrahima Konaté
Ibrahima Konaté Defender
6
Milos Kerkez
Milos Kerkez Defender
7
Florian Wirtz
Florian Wirtz Midfielder
73
Rio Ngumoha
Rio Ngumoha
Attacker68'
8
Dominik Szoboszlai
Dominik Szoboszlai Midfielder
17
Curtis Jones
Curtis Jones Midfielder
38
Ryan Gravenberch
Ryan Gravenberch Midfielder
10
Alexis Mac Allister
Alexis Mac Allister
Midfielder67'
11
Mohamed Salah
Mohamed Salah Attacker
14
Federico Chiesa
Federico Chiesa
Attacker77'
22
Hugo Ekitiké
Hugo Ekitiké Attacker
18
Cody Gakpo
Cody Gakpo
Attacker68'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Nico González
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
88'
87'
Event
Ibrahima Konaté
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Omar Marmoush → Erling Haaland
10th Substitution
77'
77'
Event
Federico Chiesa → Mohamed Salah
9th Substitution
Event
Phil Foden → Antoine Semenyo
7th Substitution
71'
Event
Tijjani Reijnders → Rayan Cherki
8th Substitution
71'
68'
Event
Rio Ngumoha → Florian Wirtz
6th Substitution
68'
Event
Cody Gakpo → Hugo Ekitiké
5th Substitution
Event
Bernardo Silva  
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
67'
67'
Event
Alexis Mac Allister → Ryan Gravenberch
4th Substitution
65'
Event
Milos Kerkez
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
64'
Event
Mohamed Salah
GoalkeeperSave
Event
Savinho → Jérémy Doku
3rd Substitution
62'
Event
Nico González → Rodri
2nd Substitution
62'
62'
Event
Jeremie Frimpong → Joe Gomez
1st Substitution
Event
Erling Haaland
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
57'
Event
Antoine Semenyo
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
50'
1ST-HALF
Event
Erling Haaland
Header / 1st Goal
45+2'
Event
Erling Haaland
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
39'
Event
Rodri
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
34'
24'
Event
Ryan Gravenberch
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be no added time.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with Manchester City winning 4-0 against Liverpool.
88
Update Update
Dominik Szoboszlai of Liverpool wins a free kick in the attacking half.
88
Update Update
Foul committed by Nico González of Manchester City.
88
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Nico González from Manchester City receives a yellow card for a bad foul.
87
Update Update
Savinho from Manchester City wins a free kick in the defensive half.
87
Update Update
Foul committed by Ibrahima Konaté of Liverpool.
87
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ibrahima Konaté of Liverpool receives a yellow card for a bad foul.
82
Update Update
Foul committed by Ibrahima Konaté of Liverpool.
82
Update Update
Tijjani Reijnders from Manchester City wins a free kick in the attacking half.
81
Attempt Attempt
Cody Gakpo's header from the center of the box is saved.
80
Update Update
Rio Ngumoha from Liverpool wins a free kick on the left wing.
80
Update Update
Foul committed by Nico González for Manchester City.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Liverpool: Federico Chiesa comes on for Mohamed Salah.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Manchester City: Omar Marmoush comes on for Erling Haaland.
76
Update Update
Alexis Mac Allister wins a free kick for Liverpool in the defensive half.
76
Update Update
Foul committed by Nico González of Manchester City.
75
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Alexis Mac Allister's right-footed shot from outside the box is saved in the center of the goal by James Trafford. The assist came from Cody Gakpo.
73
Corner Corner
Liverpool win a corner after Phil Foden concedes.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Manchester City: Phil Foden comes on for Antoine Semenyo.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Manchester City: Tijjani Reijnders comes on for Rayan Cherki.
70
Update Update
Foul by Antoine Semenyo against Manchester City.
70
Update Update
Ibrahima Konaté of Liverpool wins a free kick in the attacking half.
69
Update Update
Foul committed by Savinho of Manchester City.
69
Update Update
Dominik Szoboszlai wins a free kick for Liverpool in the defensive half.
68
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Liverpool: Cody Gakpo comes on for Hugo Ekitiké.
68
Corner Corner
Liverpool win a corner after Matheus Nunes concedes.
67
Update Update
Ryan Gravenberch of Liverpool wins a free kick in the attacking half.
67
Update Update
Ryan Gravenberch of Liverpool wins a free kick in the attacking half.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Liverpool: Alexis Mac Allister comes on for Ryan Gravenberch.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Liverpool: Rio Ngumoha comes on for Florian Wirtz.
67
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Bernardo Silva of Manchester City receives a yellow card for a bad foul.
66
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Bernardo Silva's left-footed shot from outside the box is saved in the top center of the goal by Giorgi Mamardashvili. Rayan Cherki provided the assist.
65
Update Update
Savinho from Manchester City wins a free kick on the right wing.
65
Update Update
Savinho from Manchester City wins a free kick on the right wing.
65
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Milos Kerkez of Liverpool receives a yellow card for a bad foul.
64
Attempt Attempt
Penalty saved! Mohamed Salah's left-footed shot is saved in the center of the goal by James Trafford.
63
Update Update
Penalty awarded to Liverpool as Hugo Ekitiké is fouled in the penalty area.
63
Update Update
Matheus Nunes of Manchester City concedes a penalty after committing a foul in the penalty area.
62
Update Update
Foul committed by Virgil van Dijk of Liverpool.
62
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Liverpool: Jeremie Frimpong comes on for Joe Gomez.
62
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Manchester City: Savinho comes on for Jérémy Doku.
62
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Manchester City: Nico González comes on for Rodri.
62
Update Update
Rayan Cherki from Manchester City wins a free kick in the attacking half.
61
Update Update
Foul committed by Ibrahima Konaté of Liverpool.
59
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Hugo Ekitiké's right-footed shot from the center of the box is saved in the top center of the goal by James Trafford. The assist came from Mohamed Salah.
57
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Manchester City lead 4-0 against Liverpool. Erling Haaland scores with a left-footed shot from the center of the box.
55
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Mohamed Salah from Liverpool takes a left-footed shot from the right side of the box.
54
Attempt Attempt
Antoine Semenyo from Manchester City misses the attempt with a right-footed shot from over 35 yards that goes too high, assisted by Bernardo Silva during a fast break.
52
Corner Corner
Attempt saved. Mohamed Salah's left-footed shot from the right side of the box is saved in the bottom left corner by James Trafford. The attempt was assisted by Ryan Gravenberch.
51
Update Update
Foul by Abdukodir Khusanov of Manchester City.
51
Update Update
Hugo Ekitiké wins a free kick for Liverpool in the defensive half.
50
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Manchester City lead 3-0 with Antoine Semenyo scoring from the left side of the box with a left-footed shot.
47
Update Update
Foul committed by Joe Gomez of Liverpool.
47
Update Update
Reilly from Manchester City wins a free kick in the defensive half.
46
Update Update
Mohamed Salah wins a free kick for Liverpool in the attacking half.
46
Update Update
Foul committed by Marc Guéhi of Manchester City.
45
Update Update
First half ends with Manchester City leading Liverpool 2-0.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Manchester City lead 2-0 after Erling Haaland scores with a header from the center of the box.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Rayan Cherki of Manchester City.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 2 minutes of added time.
45
Update Update
Joe Gomez from Liverpool wins a free kick in the defensive half.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at Manchester City 2, Liverpool 0.
44
Update Update
Joe Gomez of Liverpool wins a free kick in the defensive half.
44
Update Update
Foul committed by Jérémy Doku of Manchester City.
39
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Manchester City leads 1-0 after Erling Haaland converts the penalty with a left-footed shot.
37
Update Update
Reilly is fouled in the penalty area.
37
Update Update
Virgil van Dijk of Liverpool concedes a penalty after a foul in the penalty area.
36
Corner Corner
Manchester City win a corner after Dominik Szoboszlai concedes.
36
Attempt Attempt
Rodri's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The attempt was assisted by Marc Guéhi.
34
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Rodri from Manchester City receives a yellow card for a foul.
33
Update Update
Rodri wins a free kick for Manchester City on the right wing.
33
Update Update
Rodri wins a free kick for Manchester City in the attacking half.
30
Corner Corner
Manchester City win a corner after Dominik Szoboszlai concedes.
28
Update Update
Hugo Ekitiké of Liverpool is caught offside.
27
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Hugo Ekitiké of Liverpool has a right-footed shot from the center of the box.
26
Update Update
Offside for Manchester City. Jérémy Doku is flagged for offside.
24
Update Update
Foul committed by Ryan Gravenberch of Liverpool.
24
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ryan Gravenberch of Liverpool receives a yellow card for a foul.
24
Update Update
Jérémy Doku from Manchester City wins a free kick in the defensive half.
22
Update Update
Foul committed by Bernardo Silva of Manchester City.
22
Update Update
Foul committed by Bernardo Silva of Manchester City.
20
Update Update
Curtis Jones wins a free kick for Liverpool in the attacking half.
19
Update Update
Foul committed by Mohamed Salah of Liverpool.
19
Update Update
Bernardo Silva wins a free kick for Manchester City in the attacking half.
18
Attempt Attempt
Antoine Semenyo's left-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. He was assisted by Erling Haaland.
17
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Rayan Cherki's right-footed shot from the center of the box is saved.
14
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Matheus Nunes from Manchester City has a right-footed shot from outside the box that is saved.
14
Attempt Attempt
Attempt blocked. Mohamed Salah's left-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked.
12
Update Update
Dominik Szoboszlai of Liverpool wins a free kick in the defensive half.
11
Attempt Attempt
Hugo Ekitiké from Liverpool misses an attempt with a right-footed shot from outside the box.
10
Update Update
Ryan Gravenberch from Liverpool wins a free kick in the defensive half.
10
Update Update
Ryan Gravenberch of Liverpool wins a free kick in the defensive half.
8
Attempt Attempt
Dominik Szoboszlai's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
6
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Manchester City after Milos Kerkez concedes.
5
Attempt Attempt
Ibrahima Konaté's header from the center of the box is saved in the middle of the goal by James Trafford. The attempt was assisted by Dominik Szoboszlai's cross.
4
Update Update
Curtis Jones wins a free kick for Liverpool in the attacking half.
4
Update Update
Foul committed by Antoine Semenyo against Manchester City.
3
Attempt Attempt
Florian Wirtz's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. Hugo Ekitiké provided the assist.
2
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Jérémy Doku from Manchester City takes a right-footed shot from outside the box.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Manchester City exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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