Manchester City vs Brentford Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
Etihad Stadium Sat, 9 May - 4:30 PM
Premier League
Manchester City MCI
3 Winner 0
Brentford BRE
Full Time Sat, 9 May 4:30 PM
Round 36 Regular Season
Omar Marmoush - 90+2'
Erling Haaland - 75'
Jérémy Doku - 60'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Manchester City delivered a clinical 3-0 win over Brentford, asserting dominance after a cautious first half that ended 0-0. Holding 59% possession throughout, City controlled proceedings without facing a red card threat, while Brentford managed 41% but struggled to convert opportunities. The second half saw City's quality prevail with three well-taken goals, capitalizing on sustained pressure. No major tactical adjustments disrupted the flow, and the stronger side's superiority was evident from start to finish. This outcome showed minimal structural deviation, aligning closely with pre-match expectations for the home team. Brentford's resilience faded as City's efficiency in attack proved decisive, securing a comfortable margin. The match highlighted City's depth and precision in front of goal.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Structural deviation was minimal at 2.1% favoring Manchester City.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with overall expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be assessed due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment was fully achieved with the 3-0 result.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations were unavailable for evaluation.
  • Event impact: No key events like second-half adjustments altered the match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant zero distortion to the scoreline.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

M. Salisbury

England 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Perry

1st Assistant

England

S. Ledger

2nd Assistant

England

R. Jones

4th Official

England

League averages

Premier League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 19.78
Yellow cards / match 3.66
Red cards / match 0.12
Penalties / match 0.18
Manchester City Josep Guardiola
Josep Guardiola
VS
Brentford K. Andrews
K. Andrews
2.17
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.52
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Everton Rank: 87 D
Burnley Rank: 77 W
Arsenal Rank: 98 W
Chelsea Rank: 88 W
West Ham United Rank: 84 D
Nottingham Forest Rank: 88 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
West Ham United Rank: 84 W
Manchester United Rank: 90 L
Fulham Rank: 85 D
Everton Rank: 88 D
Leeds United Rank: 87 D
Wolverhampton Wanderers Rank: 79 D
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 1 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Manchester City
97.86%
Draw
1.92%
Away Brentford
0.22%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
98.47
72.31
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Manchester City
Brentford
Power Score
98.47
72.31
League Position
2
8
Global Rank
2
18

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

vs
Manchester City Opponent-weighted form score
Brentford Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Manchester City Brentford

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

vs

Manchester City

Left / Center / Right
Opposition half density
vs season average

Brentford

Left / Center / Right
Opposition half density
vs season average

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Manchester City ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Brentford
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
49.49
14.39
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
14.39
49.49
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Manchester City +3.92 Efficiency Index
vs
Brentford -3.92 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Manchester City
Brentford
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Manchester City ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Brentford
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Manchester City Brentford
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
vs
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Manchester City Brentford
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
vs
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Manchester City
Brentford
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Manchester City
vs
Brentford
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Manchester City Brentford
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Manchester City Brentford
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
Manchester City
Brentford
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • MCI had peak pressure around 30'.
  • MCI started the game with stronger pressure.
MCI Pressure BRE Pressure
Pressure Index: MCI reached the top pressure at 30' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 10 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Manchester City MCI Home
10 matches
Brentford BRE Away
Match Record
7
Wins
2
1
Draws
1
2
Losses
7
Goals
15
Goals Scored
7
7
Goals Conceded
15
+8
Goal Difference
-8

Data last updated: 2026-05-10T00:04:09+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
G. Donnarumma
Italy
25 G. Donnarumma
M. Nunes
Portugal
27 M. Nunes
M. Guehi
England
15 M. Guehi
N. Aké
Netherlands
6 N. Aké
N. O'Reilly
England
33 N. O'Reilly
T. Reijnders
Substitution
Netherlands
4 T. Reijnders
B. Silva
Portugal
20 B. Silva
A. Semenyo
Ghana
42 A. Semenyo
M. Cherki
Substitution
France
10 M. Cherki
J. Doku
Substitution
Belgium
11 J. Doku
E. Haaland
Norway
9 E. Haaland
Pitch
C. Kelleher
Republic of Ireland
1 C. Kelleher
K. Lewis-Potter
England
23 K. Lewis-Potter
N. Collins
Republic of Ireland
22 N. Collins
K. Vassbakk Ajer
Norway
20 K. Vassbakk Ajer
M. Kayode
Italy
33 M. Kayode
M. Damsgaard
Substitution
Denmark
24 M. Damsgaard
A. Hickey
Substitution
Scotland
2 A. Hickey
M. Jensen
Denmark
8 M. Jensen
Y. Yarmoliuk
Substitution
Ukraine
18 Y. Yarmoliuk
Thiago
Brazil
9 Thiago
K. Schade
Germany
7 K. Schade

General Information

Date & Time :
May 09, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, England · Round 36 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Etihad Stadium
Capacity :
53400
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Michael Salisbury
Marc Perry
Scott Ledger
Robert Jones

Statistics

Possession
MCI
59%
BRE
41%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 0
6 Big Chances Created 2
8 Shots 1
84 Dangerous attacks 38
59 Possession 41
10 Corners 2
16 Free kicks 8
4 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

23 Dribble Attempts 17
14 Successful Dribbles 8
4 Goal Kicks 12
11 Successful Headers 9
67 Ball Safe 61
21 Throwins 9
15 Goal Attempts 2
61 Successful Dribbles Percentage 47
1 Assists 0
0 Injuries 2
3 Substitutions 3

Attacking

5 Big Chances Missed 2
110 Attacks 63

Possession

17 Key Passes 3
38 Long Passes 60
19 Successful Long Passes 19
397 Successful Passes 244
86 Successful Passes Percentage 76
463 Passes 320
50 Successful Long Passes Percentage 32

Defensive

14 Tackles 22
5 Interceptions 10
55 Duels Won 47
2 Saves 7

Build-up

5 Accurate Crosses 1
19 Total Crosses 11

Discipline

8 Fouls 14
0 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Michael Salisbury

Starting XI

25
Gianluigi Donnarumma
Gianluigi Donnarumma Goalkeeper
6
Nathan Aké
Nathan Aké Defender
15
Marc Guéhi
Marc Guéhi Defender
27
Matheus Nunes
Matheus Nunes Defender
33
Nico O'Reilly
Nico O'Reilly Defender
4
Tijjani Reijnders
Tijjani Reijnders Midfielder
47
Phil Foden
Phil Foden
Midfielder60'
10
Rayan Cherki
Rayan Cherki Midfielder
7
Omar Marmoush
Omar Marmoush
Attacker60'
11
Jérémy Doku
Jérémy Doku Midfielder
26
Savinho
Savinho
Attacker90'
20
Bernardo Silva
Bernardo Silva Midfielder
42
Antoine Semenyo
Antoine Semenyo Midfielder
9
Erling Haaland
Erling Haaland Attacker
Referee : Michael Salisbury

Starting XI

1
Caoimhín Kelleher
Caoimhín Kelleher Goalkeeper
20
Kristoffer Ajer
Kristoffer Ajer Defender
22
Nathan Collins
Nathan Collins Defender
23
Keane Lewis-Potter
Keane Lewis-Potter Defender
33
Michael Kayode
Michael Kayode Defender
2
Aaron Hickey
Aaron Hickey Midfielder
27
Vitaly Janelt
Vitaly Janelt
Midfielder61'
8
Mathias Jensen
Mathias Jensen Midfielder
18
Yegor Yarmolyuk
Yegor Yarmolyuk Midfielder
6
Jordan Henderson
Jordan Henderson
Midfielder79'
24
Mikkel Damsgaard
Mikkel Damsgaard Midfielder
19
Dango Ouattara
Dango Ouattara
Attacker68'
7
Kevin Schade
Kevin Schade Attacker
9
Igor Thiago
Igor Thiago Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Omar Marmoush
Time wasting / 6th Yellowcard
90+5'
Event
Omar Marmoush
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
90+2'
Event
Savinho Jérémy Doku
6th Substitution
90'
Event
Matheus Nunes
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
88'
88'
Event
Jordan Henderson
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
80'
Event
Kristoffer Ajer
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
79'
Event
Jordan Henderson Yegor Yarmolyuk
5th Substitution
Event
Erling Haaland
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
75'
Event
Nico O'Reilly
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
74'
68'
Event
Dango Ouattara Mikkel Damsgaard
4th Substitution
61'
Event
Vitaly Janelt Aaron Hickey
3rd Substitution
Event
Phil Foden Tijjani Reijnders
1st Substitution
60'
Event
Omar Marmoush Rayan Cherki
2nd Substitution
60'
Event
Jérémy Doku
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
60'
1ST-HALF
Event
Bernardo Silva  
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
36'

Match Commentary

88
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Matheus Nunes of Manchester City receives a yellow card.
88
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jordan Henderson of Brentford receives a yellow card.
87
Update Update
Bernardo Silva of Manchester City won a free kick in defense.
87
Update Update
Foul committed by Mathias Jensen of Brentford.
84
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Manchester City after a concession by Kristoffer Ajer.
83
Update Update
Jérémy Doku from Manchester City won a free kick in defense.
83
Corner Corner
Nathan Aké from Manchester City had a missed chance, heading the ball from the center of the box but it went wide to the left after a corner.
83
Update Update
Foul committed by Michael Kayode for Brentford.
82
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Manchester City after a concession by Caoimhín Kelleher.
82
Corner Corner
Phil Foden of Manchester City attempts an attack with a left-footed shot from inside the six-yard box, but Caoimhín Kelleher of Brentford makes a save in the left corner.
81
Update Update
Foul committed by Kevin Schade of Brentford.
81
Update Update
Jérémy Doku from Manchester City won a free kick on the left wing.
80
Update Update
Foul committed by Kristoffer Ajer of Brentford.
80
Update Update
Omar Marmoush from Manchester City won a free kick on the right wing.
80
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Kristoffer Ajer of Brentford receives a yellow card for a foul.
79
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Brentford: Jordan Henderson replaces Yehor Yarmoliuk.
77
Update Update
Phil Foden of Manchester City won a free kick in defense.
77
Update Update
Dango Ouattara fouled a Brentford player.
75
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Erling Haaland of Manchester City takes a left-footed shot from close range, but it's saved by Brentford's goalkeeper Caoimhín Kelleher, with an assist from Omar Marmoush.
75
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Manchester City lead Brentford 2-0. Erling Haaland scores for Manchester City with a right-footed shot from a few meters to the center of the goal.
74
Update Update
Dango Ouattara from Brentford won a free kick in defense.
74
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Nico O'Reilly of Manchester City receives a yellow card for a foul.
74
Update Update
Foul committed by Nico O'Reilly of Manchester City.
73
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Manchester City after a concession by Kristoffer Ajer.
73
Attempt Attempt
Jérémy Doku's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Bernardo Silva provided the assist.
69
Update Update
Foul committed by Jérémy Doku of Manchester City.
69
Update Update
Dango Ouattara from Brentford won a free kick in defense.
68
Update Update
Foul by Kevin Schade of Brentford.
68
Update Update
Matheus Nunes of Manchester City won a free kick in defense.
68
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Brentford: Dango Ouattara replaces Mikkel Damsgaard.
67
Update Update
Foul committed by Vitaly Janelt of Brentford.
67
Update Update
Matheus Nunes of Manchester City won a free kick in the attacking area.
67
Attempt Attempt
Phil Foden of Manchester City attempts an attack, shooting with his left foot from the center of the box, but his shot is saved by Brentford's goalkeeper, Caoimhín Kelleher, who is positioned in the center of the goal. The assist came from Jérémy Doku.
62
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Kevin Schade from Brentford.
61
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Brentford: Vitaly Janelt replaces Aaron Hickey.
60
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Manchester City leads Brentford 1-0 after Jérémy Doku scores with a right-footed shot from the left side of the box into the top right corner following a corner kick.
60
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Manchester City: Phil Foden replaces Tijjani Reijnders.
60
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Manchester City: Omar Marmoush replaces Rayan Cherki.
59
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Manchester City after Aaron Hickey concedes.
58
Attempt Attempt
Aaron Hickey from Brentford had a missed chance, shooting with his left foot from outside the box, but it went just to the left.
58
Update Update
Offside called against Brentford. Mikkel Damsgaard is offside.
57
Update Update
Keane Lewis-Potter from Brentford won a free kick on the left wing.
57
Update Update
Foul committed by Matheus Nunes of Manchester City.
55
Corner Corner
Brentford is awarded a corner after Marc Guéhi concedes it.
55
Attempt Attempt
Igor Thiago from Brentford attempts an attack with a right-footed shot from the right side of the box, but it is saved by Gianluigi Donnarumma, the goalkeeper for Manchester City. The assist was provided by Michael Kayode.
54
Update Update
Antoine Semenyo misses a chance for Manchester City, shooting left-footed from outside the box, but it goes high and wide to the left. Matheus Nunes provided the assist.
52
Update Update
Nathan Aké of Manchester City won a free kick in defense.
52
Update Update
Igor Thiago fouled a Brentford player.
49
Update Update
Nico O'Reilly fouled a player from Manchester City.
49
Update Update
Michael Kayode from Brentford won a free kick on the right wing.
47
Update Update
Igor Thiago fouled a Brentford player.
47
Update Update
Marc Guéhi of Manchester City won a free kick in defense.
47
Attempt Attempt
Rayan Cherki from Manchester City had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from the center of the box, but it went close and missed to the left. Jérémy Doku provided the assist.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Matheus Nunes of Manchester City.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 2 minutes of added time.
45
Update Update
Mikkel Damsgaard of Brentford won a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Update Update
The second half starts with the score at Manchester City 0, Brentford 0.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Manchester City and Brentford tied at 0-0.
44
Update Update
Foul committed by Antoine Semenyo against Manchester City.
44
Update Update
Keane Lewis-Potter from Brentford won a free kick in defense.
44
Attempt Attempt
Antoine Semenyo's right-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked.
44
Attempt Attempt
Tijjani Reijnders' right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Matheus Nunes provided the assist.
42
Update Update
Marc Guéhi of Manchester City won a free kick in defense.
42
Update Update
Foul committed by Igor Thiago against Brentford.
39
Corner Corner
Manchester City win a corner after Igor Thiago concedes.
39
Attempt Attempt
Jérémy Doku's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. The assist came from Erling Haaland.
39
Attempt Attempt
Rayan Cherki of Manchester City has his right-footed shot from outside the box blocked.
38
Update Update
Foul by Igor Thiago against Brentford.
38
Update Update
Jérémy Doku from Manchester City won a free kick in an attacking position.
36
Corner Corner
Manchester City win a corner after Kristoffer Ajer concedes.
36
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Bernardo Silva of Manchester City receives a yellow card.
35
Attempt Attempt
Tijjani Reijnders' right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Nathan Aké provided the assist.
35
Attempt Attempt
Rayan Cherki's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The assist came from Jérémy Doku.
32
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Keane Lewis-Potter from Brentford.
29
Corner Corner
Missed chance. Bernardo Silva of Manchester City shoots with his left foot from outside the box, but it's high and wide to the left. The assist came from Rayan Cherki after a corner.
29
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Manchester City after Keane Lewis-Potter concedes.
28
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Erling Haaland of Manchester City has a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but it's saved by Brentford's goalkeeper Caoimhín Kelleher in the center of the goal. The assist came from Jérémy Doku.
28
Attempt Attempt
Nathan Aké of Manchester City attempts an attack with a left-footed shot from close range, but it is saved by Brentford's goalkeeper Caoimhín Kelleher, who is positioned in the center of the goal.
27
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Manchester City after a concession by Michael Kayode.
26
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Erling Haaland of Manchester City heads the ball from the center of the box, but it's saved in the right corner by Caoimhín Kelleher of Brentford. The assist came from Antoine Semenyo's cross.
24
Corner Corner
Tijjani Reijnders from Manchester City misses a chance with a right-footed shot from outside the box that goes high, assisted by Rayan Cherki after a corner.
23
Attempt Attempt
Tijjani Reijnders' left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Jérémy Doku provided the assist.
23
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Manchester City after Aaron Hickey concedes.
22
Update Update
Keane Lewis-Potter of Brentford won a free kick in an attacking position.
22
Update Update
Foul committed by Antoine Semenyo against Manchester City.
20
Corner Corner
Erling Haaland of Manchester City had a missed chance, heading the ball from the center of the box just wide of the top left corner. The assist came from Jérémy Doku with a cross.
19
Update Update
Foul committed by Igor Thiago for Brentford.
19
Update Update
Marc Guéhi of Manchester City won a free kick in defense.
19
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Bernardo Silva from Manchester City shot with his left foot from outside the box but missed.
17
Attempt Attempt
Mathias Jensen's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
17
Update Update
Offside called against Brentford. Kevin Schade is in an offside position.
14
Update Update
Aaron Hickey from Brentford won a free kick on the left wing.
14
Update Update
Rayan Cherki fouls a Manchester City player.
13
Update Update
Nathan Aké of Manchester City won a free kick in defense.
13
Update Update
Foul by Kevin Schade of Brentford.
9
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Manchester City after Keane Lewis-Potter concedes.
3
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Jérémy Doku of Manchester City shoots with his right foot from the left side of the box, but it's saved by Brentford's goalkeeper Caoimhín Kelleher, assisted by Nico O'Reilly.

CONCLUSION

Manchester City's 3-0 triumph over Brentford underscored their Premier League pedigree, turning a goalless halftime into a rout through second-half mastery. With 59% possession and no disruptions from red cards, they efficiently converted dominance into goals, reflecting minimal deviation from anticipated outcomes. Brentford competed valiantly but lacked the firepower to challenge the hosts meaningfully. This result reinforces City's status as the stronger outfit, with market expectations met precisely. The clean sheet and comfortable margin signal continued form, setting a strong tone for upcoming fixtures. Overall, a professional performance devoid of surprises.

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