Malmö FF vs Sirius Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden

Malmö Stadion Thu, 23 Apr - 5:00 PM

Allsvenskan

Malmö FF MAL

Sirius SIR

Full Time Thu, 23 Apr 5:00 PM

Round 4 Regular Season

Adrian Skogmar - 77'

Sead Haksabanovic - 55'

Robbie Ure - 65'

Isak Bjerkebo - 60'

Mohamed Soumah - 13'

CONTEXT

Malmö FF hosted Sirius in a thrilling Allsvenskan encounter that ended 2-3 in favor of the visitors. Sirius, deemed the stronger team, took control early, forging a 1-0 halftime lead with precise finishing despite Malmö's 57% possession dominance. The hosts mounted a spirited second-half response, netting twice to level the scores momentarily, but Sirius struck back decisively to claim victory. No red cards disrupted proceedings, allowing the game to flow naturally without disciplinary distortions. Home side's territorial advantage failed to translate into sustained pressure, as Sirius thrived on counter-attacks and clinical conversion. This result highlights Sirius's tactical discipline and resilience under pressure, overturning expectations in a match defined by momentum swings rather than dominance. Minimal structural deviation of 4.4% aligned the outcome closely with underlying patterns, underscoring a fair reflection of on-pitch realities.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Result exhibited minimal structural deviation of 4.4% favoring Sirius.
Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with pre-match assessments.
xG alignment: xG alignment unassessable due to unavailable expected goals data.
Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market positioning.
xG expectations: xG expectations unmet due to lack of underlying metrics.
Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered match dynamics.
Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion from player dismissals.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

K. Karlsson

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Svensson

2nd Assistant

M. Lundgren

1st Assistant

A. Aganovic

4th Official

M. Ramírez

A. Engelmark

1.83

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

12 - 3 - 3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Malmö FF

0.19%

Draw

4.2%

Sirius

95.61%

Movement

Changes since opening

Malmö FF

-0.05%

Draw

-2.21%

Sirius

+2.26%

Team Power Ranking

22.1

45.18

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Malmö FF

Sirius

Power Score

22.1

45.18

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Malmö FF — Opponent-weighted form score

Sirius — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Malmö FF Sirius

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Malmö FF

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Sirius

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Malmö FF ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Sirius

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

30.35

41.51

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

41.51

30.35

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Malmö FF -1.11 Efficiency Index

Sirius +1.11 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Malmö FF

Sirius

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Malmö FF ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Sirius

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Malmö FF Sirius

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Malmö FF Sirius

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Malmö FF

Sirius

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Malmö FF

Sirius

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Malmö FF Sirius

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Malmö FF Sirius

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Malmö FF

Sirius

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

MAL had peak pressure around 45'.
MAL started the game with stronger pressure.
Both teams' pressure dropped after the 30th minute.

MAL Pressure SIR Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: MAL reached the top pressure at 45' (72.23).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 18 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Malmö FF MAL Home

18 matches

Sirius SIR Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

+28

Goal Difference

-28

Data last updated: 2026-04-24T00:02:12+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1

27 J. Dahlin

17 J. Larsen

4 B. Kurtulus

19 C. Rosler

25 G. Dal Toé Busanello

7 O. Rosengren

47 T. Lundbergh

22 T. Ali

29 S. Haksabanovic

24 O. Sjöstrand

20 E. Botheim

34 D. Celic

22 O. Krusnell

4 T. Anker

2 M. Soumah

5 H. Castegren

6 M. Lindberg

21 C. Nildén

11 I. Bjerkebo

10 M. Heier

7 J. Persson

9 R. Ure

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 23, 2026, 05:00 PM

Competition :

2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden · Round 4 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Malmö Stadion

Capacity :

22500

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Kristoffer Karlsson

Andreas Svensson

Marcus Lundgren

Adi Aganovic

Statistics

Possession

MAL

55%

SIR

45%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 3

2 Big Chances Created 1

5 Shots 9

46 Dangerous attacks 37

57 Possession 43

4 Corners 3

15 Free kicks 17

2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

23 Throwins 22

7 Goal Kicks 11

30 Successful Dribbles Percentage 26

23 Dribble Attempts 19

7 Successful Dribbles 5

5 Substitutions 3

1 Injuries 1

9 Goal Attempts 7

120 Ball Safe 114

1 Assists 2

Attacking

99 Attacks 71

Possession

83 Successful Passes Percentage 84

472 Passes 352

24 Successful Long Passes 21

52 Long Passes 45

393 Successful Passes 294

46 Successful Long Passes Percentage 47

13 Key Passes 11

Defensive

55 Duels Won 50

1 Saves 3

26 Tackles 21

9 Interceptions 8

Build-up

11 Total Crosses 13

5 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

17 Fouls 15

0 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Kristoffer Karlsson

Manager ▼

M. Ramírez Coach

Starting XI ▼

Johan Dahlin Goalkeeper

5.99

Bleon Kurtulus Defender

6.59

Andrej Djuric

Defender20'

6.24

Jens Stryger Larsen Defender

6.79

Colin Rösler Defender

7.13

Busanello Defender

6.74

Otto Rosengren Midfielder

7.58

Taha Ali Midfielder

6.83

N. Åstrand John

Defender78'

6.38

Oscar Sjöstrand Midfielder

6.9

Daníel Gudjohnsen

Attacker68'

6.56

Sead Haksabanovic Midfielder

7.14

Arnór Sigurdsson

Midfielder78'

6.51

Theodor Lundbergh Midfielder

6.71

Adrian Skogmar

Midfielder46'

6.48

Erik Botheim Attacker

7.1

Substitutes ▼

Andrej Djuric

Defender20'

6.24

Adrian Skogmar

Midfielder46'

6.48

Daníel Gudjohnsen

Attacker68'

6.56

N. Åstrand John

Defender78'

6.38

Arnór Sigurdsson

Midfielder78'

6.51

Bench ▼

William Nieroth Lundgren Goalkeeper

Johan Karlsson Defender

6.71

Yanis Karabelyov Midfielder

6.9

Kenan Busuladzic Midfielder

6.33

Referee : Kristoffer Karlsson