Malmö FF vs Mjällby Prediction, Preview and Stats

Sweden flag 2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden
Malmö Stadion Sun, 3 May - 12:00 PM
Allsvenskan
Malmö FF MAL
2 Winner 3
Mjällby Mjällby
Full Time Sun, 3 May 12:00 PM
Round 6 Regular Season
Taha Ali - 57'
Goal
|
Goal
Elliot Stroud - 49'

CONTEXT

Malmö FF welcomed Mjällby to their home stadium in the Allsvenskan, but the visitors emerged victorious with a 2-3 scoreline. Malmö controlled 52% of possession yet found themselves trailing 0-1 at halftime after Mjällby's opportunistic goal. The second half saw Malmö claw back twice to level the scores temporarily, only for Mjällby to strike decisively with two more goals. Deemed the stronger side beforehand, Mjällby showcased clinical finishing despite even pre-match expectations, where both teams shared 36% probabilities alongside a 28% draw chance. No red cards marred the contest, ensuring uninterrupted flow, while empty second-half adjustment logs underscored steady tactics. This outcome represented a significant structural shift, as Mjällby's efficiency aligned with their underlying quality, propelling them to an upset win against the possession-dominant hosts. The match highlighted Mjällby's resilience and Malmö's wastefulness in key moments.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Mjällby posted a significant 64% structural deviation from pre-match expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations for both teams.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment remains undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment held true given Mjällby's win from even pre-match shares.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated without match data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or other events altered the game's course.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards produced no distortion in the final scoreline.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

M. Al Hakim

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Culum

1st Assistant

F. Klyver

2nd Assistant

R. Hasani

4th Official

Malmö FF M. Ramírez
M. Ramírez
VS
Mjällby Karl Marius Aksum
Karl Marius Aksum
2.17
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.86
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
AIK Rank: 57 W
Sirius Rank: 61 L
Djurgården Rank: 65 W
GAIS Rank: 59 W
Örgryte Rank: 42 D
GAIS Rank: 59 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Halmstad Rank: 47 W
GAIS Rank: 57 D
Brommapojkarna Rank: 48 W
Örgryte Rank: 41 L
Hammarby Rank: 69 L
Häcken Rank: 59 W
9
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
9 - 7 - 6
6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Malmö FF
36.02%
Draw
27.96%
Away Mjällby
36.02%

Movement

Changes since opening
Malmö FF
+35.83%
Draw
+24.23%
Mjällby
-60.05%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
63.62
69.62
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Malmö FF
Mjällby
Power Score
63.62
69.62
League Position
5
6
Global Rank
372
215

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Malmö FF — Opponent-weighted form score
Mjällby — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Malmö FF Mjällby

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Malmö FF

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Mjällby

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Malmö FF ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Mjällby
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
46.73
26.56
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.56
46.73
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Malmö FF +2.09 Efficiency Index
vs
Mjällby -2.09 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Malmö FF
Mjällby
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Malmö FF ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Mjällby
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Malmö FF Mjällby
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Malmö FF Mjällby
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Malmö FF
Mjällby
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Malmö FF
vs
Mjällby
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Malmö FF Mjällby
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Malmö FF 0.32
Mjällby 0.31
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Malmö FF Mjällby
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Malmö FF 0.09
Mjällby 0.03
Malmö FF
Mjällby
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • MAL had peak pressure around 19'.
  • Mjällby started the game with stronger pressure.
MAL Pressure Mjällby Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: MAL reached the top pressure at 19' (97.94).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 22 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Malmö FF MAL Home
22 matches
Mjällby Mjällby Away
Match Record
9
Wins
6
7
Draws
7
6
Losses
9
Goals
32
Goals Scored
24
24
Goals Conceded
32
+8
Goal Difference
-8

Data last updated: 2026-05-04T00:02:22+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
J. Dahlin
Sweden
27 J. Dahlin
J. Larsen
Denmark
17 J. Larsen
A. Đurić
Serbia
5 A. Đurić
C. Rosler
Norway
19 C. Rosler
T. Lundbergh
Substitution
Sweden
47 T. Lundbergh
O. Sjöstrand
24 O. Sjöstrand
O. Rosengren
Substitution
Sweden
7 O. Rosengren
Y. Karabelyov
Substitution
Bulgaria
6 Y. Karabelyov
S. Haksabanovic
Montenegro
29 S. Haksabanovic
A. Skogmar
Substitution
Sweden
37 A. Skogmar
E. Botheim
Substitution
Norway
20 E. Botheim

General Information

Date & Time :
May 03, 2026, 12:00 PM
Competition :
2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden · Round 6 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Malmö Stadion
Capacity :
22500
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Mohammed Al Hakim
Mehmet Culum
Fredrik Klyver
Rinon Hasani

Statistics

Possession
MAL
54%
Mjällby
46%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 3
1 Big Chances Created 3
8 Shots 1
66 Dangerous attacks 35
52 Possession 48
5 Corners 2
16 Free kicks 12
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 5
2 Injuries 2
55 Ball Safe 48
10 Goal Attempts 8
29 Throwins 20
29 Successful Dribbles Percentage 17
14 Dribble Attempts 6
4 Goal Kicks 5
2 Assists 3
4 Successful Dribbles 1
3 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

113 Attacks 61

Possession

350 Successful Passes 332
428 Passes 404
62 Long Passes 46
23 Successful Long Passes 20
82 Successful Passes Percentage 82
16 Key Passes 10
37 Successful Long Passes Percentage 43

Defensive

10 Tackles 15
37 Duels Won 43
4 Interceptions 11
5 Saves 3

Build-up

18 Total Crosses 11
5 Accurate Crosses 7

Discipline

12 Fouls 16
1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Mohammed Al Hakim

Starting XI ▼

27
Johan Dahlin
Johan Dahlin Goalkeeper
7.63
5
Andrej Djuric
Andrej Djuric Defender
6.86
17
Jens Stryger Larsen
Jens Stryger Larsen Defender
6.98
19
Colin Rösler
Colin Rösler Defender
7.1
47
Theodor Lundbergh
Theodor Lundbergh Defender
6.81
25
Busanello
Busanello
Defender71'
6.78
6
Yanis Karabelyov
Yanis Karabelyov Midfielder
7.02
40
Kenan Busuladzic
Kenan Busuladzic
Midfielder71'
6.38
7
Otto Rosengren
Otto Rosengren Midfielder
7.45
28
Jovan Milosavljević
Jovan Milosavljević
Midfielder85'
6.49
24
Oscar Sjöstrand
Oscar Sjöstrand Midfielder
6.61
29
Sead Haksabanovic
Sead Haksabanovic Midfielder
7.15
20
Erik Botheim
Erik Botheim Attacker
7.07
32
Daníel Gudjohnsen
Daníel Gudjohnsen
Attacker54'
6.59
37
Adrian Skogmar
Adrian Skogmar Attacker
6.7
22
Taha Ali
Taha Ali
Midfielder55'
6.74
Referee : Mohammed Al Hakim

Starting XI ▼

13
Robin Wallinder
Robin Wallinder Goalkeeper
7.12
4
Axel Norén
Axel Norén Defender
7.16
5
Abdullah Iqbal
Abdullah Iqbal Defender
6.88
24
Tom Pettersson
Tom Pettersson
Defender85'
6.45
33
Tony Miettinen
Tony Miettinen Defender
6.81
6
Ludwig Malachowski Thorell
Ludwig Malachowski Thorell Midfielder
7.2
39
Romeo Leandersson
Romeo Leandersson
Midfielder85'
6.5
14
Villiam Granath
Villiam Granath Midfielder
6.82
25
M. Nielsen
M. Nielsen
Defender64'
6.72
17
Elliot Stroud
Elliot Stroud Midfielder
7.47
22
Jesper Gustavsson
Jesper Gustavsson Midfielder
6.77
7
Viktor Gustafson
Viktor Gustafson Attacker
6.77
10
Jeppe Kjær
Jeppe Kjær
Midfielder64'
6.44
18
Jacob Bergström
Jacob Bergström Attacker
2
7.16
19
Abdoulie Manneh
Abdoulie Manneh Attacker
7.34
27
Ludvig Tidstrand
Ludvig Tidstrand
Midfielder89'
6.63

Events

2ND-HALF
89'
Event
Ludvig Tidstrand → Abdoulie Manneh
10th Substitution
Event
Jovan Milosavljević → Otto Rosengren
8th Substitution
85'
85'
Event
Romeo Leandersson → Ludwig Malachowski Thorell
7th Substitution
85'
Event
Tom Pettersson → Abdullah Iqbal
9th Substitution
Event
Sead Haksabanovic
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
81'
73'
Event
Abdullah Iqbal
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Busanello → Theodor Lundbergh
5th Substitution
71'
Event
Kenan Busuladzic → Yanis Karabelyov
6th Substitution
71'
70'
Event
Jacob Bergström
Header / 4th Goal
64'
Event
Jeppe Kjær → Viktor Gustafson
3rd Substitution
64'
Event
M. Nielsen → Villiam Granath
4th Substitution
Event
Taha Ali
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
57'
Event
Taha Ali → Adrian Skogmar
2nd Substitution
55'
Event
Daníel Gudjohnsen → Erik Botheim
1st Substitution
54'
49'
Event
Elliot Stroud
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
1ST-HALF
2'
Event
Jacob Bergström
Header / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Colin Rosler takes a shot with his head, but it hits the post.
90
Attempt Attempt
Jovan Milosavljevic takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
89
Update Update
Ludvig Tidstrand replaces Abdoulie Manneh.
85
Update Update
Jovan Milosavljevic is on, and Otto Rosengren is off.
85
Update Update
Jovan Milosavljevic is on, and Otto Rosengren is off.
85
Update Update
Tom Pettersson is on, and Abdullah Iqbal is off.
84
Attempt Attempt
Gabriel Dal Toe Busanello takes a left-footed shot but misses.
82
Attempt Attempt
Elliot Stroud takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
81
Attempt Attempt
Sead Haksabanovic takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
78
Attempt Attempt
Sead Haksabanovic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
75
Attempt Attempt
Otto Rosengren's right-footed shot is blocked.
75
Attempt Attempt
Kenan Busuladzic takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
71
Substitution Substitution
Gabriel Dal Toe Busanello is substituted off for Theodor Lundbergh.
71
Update Update
Kenan Busuladzic is on, and Yanis Karabelyov is off.
70
Attempt Attempt
Jacob Bergstrom takes a shot with his head and scores a goal.
66
Attempt Attempt
Sead Haksabanovic takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
64
Substitution Substitution
Max Nielsen is substituted for Villiam Granath.
64
Update Update
Jeppe Kjaer replaces Viktor Gustafsson.
60
Attempt Attempt
Otto Rosengren takes a right-footed shot but misses.
57
Update Update
Goal! Taha Abdi Ali scores, making it 1-2.
57
Attempt Attempt
Taha Abdi Ali scores with a left-footed shot.
57
Attempt Attempt
Abdoulie Manneh takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
55
Update Update
Taha Abdi Ali replaces Adrian Skogmar.
54
Update Update
Daniel Tristan Gudjohnsen replaces Erik Botheim.
49
Attempt Attempt
Elliot Stroud scores with a left-footed shot.
46
Attempt Attempt
Sead Haksabanovic takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Colin Rosler takes a right-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Elliot Stroud takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
41
Attempt Attempt
Oscar Sjostrand takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
40
Attempt Attempt
Jacob Bergstrom takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
38
Attempt Attempt
Villiam Granath takes a shot with his head, but it misses.
32
Attempt Attempt
Oscar Sjostrand takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
31
Attempt Attempt
Sead Haksabanovic takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
30
Attempt Attempt
Viktor Gustafsson takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
23
Attempt Attempt
Sead Haksabanovic takes a left-footed shot that hits the post.
22
Attempt Attempt
Otto Rosengren's right-footed shot is blocked.
18
Attempt Attempt
Oscar Sjostrand takes a left-footed shot that hits the post.
16
Attempt Attempt
Otto Rosengren takes a right-footed shot but misses.
15
Attempt Attempt
Otto Rosengren takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
12
Attempt Attempt
Otto Rosengren's right-footed shot is blocked.
8
Attempt Attempt
Jacob Bergstrom takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
6
Attempt Attempt
Abdoulie Manneh takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
2
Attempt Attempt
Jacob Bergstrom takes a shot with his head and scores a goal.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Mohammed Al-Hakim.

CONCLUSION

Mjällby's 2-3 triumph over Malmö FF underscores their status as the stronger outfit, converting limited possession into maximum impact. Malmö's 52% ball share yielded two goals but exposed finishing frailties against a resolute defense. The halftime 0-1 deficit set the tone, with Mjällby's second-half brace sealing a deserved victory amid significant deviation from balanced expectations. This result boosts Mjällby's momentum while prompting Malmö to refine their conversion rates. Without disruptions like reds, pure execution decided the outcome, affirming tactical discipline's edge in tight contests.

Malmö FF vs Mjällby preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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