Malmö FF vs GAIS Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden

Malmö Stadion Sun, 12 Apr - 2:30 PM

Allsvenskan

Malmö FF MAL

GAIS GAIS

Full Time Sun, 12 Apr 2:30 PM

Round 2 Regular Season

Otto Rosengren - 42'

Oscar Sjöstrand - 37'

Pontus Jansson - 21'

S. Ekong - 87'

CONTEXT

The match between Malmö FF and GAIS is now finished, with the full-time score 0-1 to the visitors. Malmö FF entered the fixture as the stronger side and were given a 53.7 percent chance of victory in pre-match forecasts, with GAIS rated at only 22 percent. The result therefore marked a significant deviation, as the away team produced an upset win that ran counter to those expectations. Possession was split 46-54 percent in GAIS’s favor, though expected goals data was unavailable. The efficiency shift stayed in line with broader patterns, yet the final score did not align with the pre-match projection and was not consistent with the anticipated outcome. No red cards were issued to either side, and the contest remained free of major disciplinary interruptions. GAIS capitalised on their opportunities while Malmö FF were unable to convert their status as favourites into a positive result, producing a result that will be remembered as a clear outlier from the predicted script.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: GAIS showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
Event impact: No major event distortion.
Red card distortion: None.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

V. Wolf

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

O. Johnson

4th Official

M. Hallin

1st Assistant

P. Rehnlund

2nd Assistant

M. Ramírez

F. Holmberg

1.6

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.4

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

9 - 8 - 1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Malmö FF

53.68%

Draw

24.36%

GAIS

21.96%

Movement

Changes since opening

Malmö FF

-44.21%

Draw

+22.44%

GAIS

+21.76%

Team Power Ranking

23.28

23.17

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Malmö FF

GAIS

Power Score

23.28

23.17

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Malmö FF — Opponent-weighted form score

GAIS — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Malmö FF GAIS

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Malmö FF

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

GAIS

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Malmö FF ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy GAIS

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

31.20

24.54

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

24.54

31.20

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Malmö FF +0.66 Efficiency Index

GAIS -0.66 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Malmö FF

GAIS

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Malmö FF ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy GAIS

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Malmö FF GAIS

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Malmö FF GAIS

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Malmö FF

GAIS

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Malmö FF

GAIS

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Malmö FF GAIS

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Malmö FF GAIS

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Malmö FF

GAIS

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

MAL had peak pressure around 43'.
MAL started the game with stronger pressure.

MAL Pressure GAIS Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: MAL reached the top pressure at 43' (74.70).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 18 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Malmö FF MAL Home

18 matches

GAIS GAIS Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

Goal Difference

-9

Data last updated: 2026-04-13T00:07:09+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2

Match Formation 4-3-3

1 R. Olsen

17 J. Larsen

18 P. Jansson

19 C. Rosler

25 G. Dal Toé Busanello

22 T. Ali

7 O. Rosengren

47 T. Lundbergh

24 O. Sjöstrand

29 S. Haksabanovic

20 E. Botheim

13 K. Sims

2 M. de Brienne

4 O. Ågren

22 A. Cardaklija

12 R. Frej

27 M. Bawa

7 J. Åberg

8 W. Milovanovic

11 R. Niklasson Johansson

20 S. Salter

32 O. Pettersson

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 12, 2026, 02:30 PM

Competition :

2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden · Round 2 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Malmö Stadion

Capacity :

22500

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Oscar Johnson

Victor Wolf

Mikael Hallin

Per Rehnlund

Statistics

Possession

MAL

48%

GAIS

52%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1

1 Big Chances Created 1

7 Shots 7

47 Dangerous attacks 45

46 Possession 54

6 Corners 5

16 Free kicks 13

1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

2 Assists 1

5 Substitutions 5

59 Ball Safe 45

8 Goal Attempts 9

3 Successful Dribbles 3

27 Successful Dribbles Percentage 25

23 Throwins 18

11 Goal Kicks 9

11 Dribble Attempts 12

Attacking

90 Attacks 98

Possession

10 Key Passes 9

68 Long Passes 55

28 Successful Long Passes 18

276 Successful Passes 358

75 Successful Passes Percentage 79

366 Passes 451

41 Successful Long Passes Percentage 33

Defensive

4 Saves 1

21 Tackles 17

13 Interceptions 5

Build-up

26 Total Crosses 17

9 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

0 Offsides 2

5 Fouls 4

Lineup

Referee : Victor Wolf

Manager ▼

M. Ramírez Coach

Starting XI ▼

Robin Olsen Goalkeeper

Jens Stryger Larsen Defender

Johan Karlsson

Defender68'

Pontus Jansson Defender

Colin Rösler Defender

Andrej Djuric

Defender85'

Busanello Defender

Otto Rosengren Midfielder

Taha Ali Midfielder

Oscar Sjöstrand Midfielder

Adrian Skogmar

Midfielder68'

Theodor Lundbergh Midfielder

Kenan Busuladzic

Midfielder74'

Erik Botheim Attacker

Sead Haksabanovic Attacker

Arnór Sigurdsson

Midfielder74'

Substitutes ▼

Adrian Skogmar

Midfielder68'

Johan Karlsson

Defender68'

Kenan Busuladzic

Midfielder74'

Arnór Sigurdsson

Midfielder74'

Andrej Djuric

Defender85'

Bench ▼

Johan Dahlin Goalkeeper

N. Åstrand John Defender

Anton Sebastian Höög Midfielder

Daníel Gudjohnsen Attacker

Referee : Victor Wolf