Mallorca vs Valencia Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
Estadi Mallorca Son Moix Tue, 21 Apr - 5:00 PM
La Liga
Mallorca MLL
1 1
Valencia VAL
Full Time Tue, 21 Apr 5:00 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
Samú Costa - 49'
Goal
|
Goal
Umar Sadiq - 67'

CONTEXT

Mallorca hosted Valencia in a La Liga match that ended in a hard-fought 1-1 draw. The first half finished goalless, with the scoreline at 0-0 and Mallorca enjoying 59% possession without creating clear-cut chances. The second half exploded into life as both teams found the net once, first Mallorca equalizing before Valencia responded to level terms. As the stronger team, Mallorca dictated play and held territorial superiority, but Valencia's compact defense and opportunistic finishing secured a share of the points. No red cards disrupted the flow, and there were no notable tactical adjustments in the latter stages. The result reflects a game of few genuine openings, where efficiency trumped dominance.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match showed moderate 8.8% structural deviation favoring Mallorca.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market view.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or knockout elements affected the result.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, causing zero distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

C. Soto Grado

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

C. Álvarez Fernández

1st Assistant

R. Becerril Gómez

2nd Assistant

?. Canovas García Villarrubia

4th Official

Mallorca M. Demichelis
M. Demichelis
VS
Valencia C. Corberán Vallet
C. Corberán Vallet
1.18
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.18
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rayo Vallecano Rank: W
Real Madrid Rank: W
Elche Rank: L
Espanyol Rank: W
Osasuna Rank: D
Real Sociedad Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Elche Rank: L
Celta de Vigo Rank: L
Sevilla Rank: W
Real Oviedo Rank: L
Deportivo Alavés Rank: W
Osasuna Rank: W
10
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
10 - 7 - 10
10

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Mallorca
5.53%
Draw
91.23%
Away Valencia
3.24%

Movement

Changes since opening
Mallorca
+0.02%
Draw
+0.34%
Valencia
-0.36%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
26.13
22.76
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Mallorca
Valencia
Power Score
26.13
22.76
League Position
14
13
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

vs
Mallorca Opponent-weighted form score
Valencia Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Mallorca Valencia

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

vs

Mallorca

Left / Center / Right
Opposition half density
vs season average

Valencia

Left / Center / Right
Opposition half density
vs season average

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Mallorca ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Valencia
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
39.15
28.17
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
28.17
39.15
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Mallorca +0.99 Efficiency Index
vs
Valencia -0.99 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Mallorca
Valencia
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Mallorca ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Valencia
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Mallorca Valencia
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
vs
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Mallorca Valencia
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
vs
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Mallorca
Valencia
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Mallorca
vs
Valencia
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Mallorca Valencia
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Mallorca Valencia
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
Mallorca
Valencia
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • MLL had peak pressure around 42'.
  • MLL started the game with stronger pressure.
MLL Pressure VAL Pressure
Pressure Index: MLL reached the top pressure at 42' (82.93).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 27 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Mallorca MLL Home
27 matches
Valencia VAL Away
Match Record
10
Wins
10
7
Draws
7
10
Losses
10
Goals
34
Goals Scored
36
36
Goals Conceded
34
-2
Goal Difference
+2

Data last updated: 2026-04-22T00:02:33+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-1-2
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
L. Román Riquelme
Spain
1 L. Román Riquelme
P. Maffeo Becerra
Argentina
23 P. Maffeo Becerra
M. Valjent
Slovakia
24 M. Valjent
O. Mascarell González
Substitution
Spain
5 O. Mascarell González
J. Mojica Palacio
Colombia
22 J. Mojica Palacio
S. Costa
Portugal
12 S. Costa
S. Darder Moll
Spain
10 S. Darder Moll
M. Morlanes
Substitution
Spain
8 M. Morlanes
P. Torre Carral
Substitution
Spain
20 P. Torre Carral
V. Muriqi
Kosovo
7 V. Muriqi
T. Asano
Substitution
Japan
11 T. Asano
Pitch
S. Dimitrievski
Macedonia
1 S. Dimitrievski
J. Gayá Peña
Spain
14 J. Gayá Peña
J. García Vayá
Spain
18 J. García Vayá
C. Tárrega Requeni
Spain
5 C. Tárrega Requeni
T. Rendall Correia
Substitution
Portugal
12 T. Rendall Correia
L. Ramazani
Substitution
Belgium
17 L. Ramazani
G. Rodríguez
Argentina
2 G. Rodríguez
F. Ugrinic
Substitution
Switzerland
23 F. Ugrinic
D. López Noguerol
Substitution
Spain
16 D. López Noguerol
L. Beltrán
Substitution
Argentina
15 L. Beltrán
U. Sadiq Mesbah
Nigeria
6 U. Sadiq Mesbah

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 21, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 La Liga, Spain · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estadi Mallorca Son Moix
Capacity :
26020
Attendance :
20103
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Carlos Álvarez Fernández
César Soto Grado
Rubén Becerril Gómez
?. Canovas García Villarrubia

Statistics

Possession
MLL
57%
VAL
43%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 2
7 Shots 4
62 Dangerous attacks 31
59 Possession 41
7 Corners 4
12 Free kicks 9
0 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

21 Throwins 18
7 Goal Kicks 10
12 Successful Headers 9
14 Dribble Attempts 14
7 Successful Dribbles 9
15 Goal Attempts 6
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 64
1 Assists 1
4 Substitutions 5
73 Ball Safe 79
1 Injuries 0

Attacking

102 Attacks 79
2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

39 Successful Long Passes 23
85 Successful Passes Percentage 81
69 Long Passes 54
505 Passes 348
430 Successful Passes 282
57 Successful Long Passes Percentage 43
13 Key Passes 9

Defensive

4 Interceptions 9
48 Duels Won 39
18 Tackles 13
2 Saves 7

Build-up

24 Total Crosses 16
8 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

4 Offsides 2
9 Fouls 12

Lineup

Referee : César Soto Grado

Starting XI

1
Leo Román
Leo Román Goalkeeper
6.84
5
Omar Mascarell
Omar Mascarell Defender
6.75
6
Antonio Sánchez
Antonio Sánchez
Midfielder76'
6.46
22
Johan Mojica
Johan Mojica Defender
6.69
23
Pablo Maffeo
Pablo Maffeo Defender
6.87
24
Martin Valjent
Martin Valjent Defender
6.65
8
Manu Morlanes
Manu Morlanes Midfielder
6.73
27
David López
David López
Defender76'
6.86
10
Sergi Darder
Sergi Darder Midfielder
6.99
12
Samú Costa
Samú Costa Midfielder
6.84
20
Pablo Torre
Pablo Torre Midfielder
6.76
19
Javi Llabrés
Javi Llabrés
Attacker85'
6.54
7
Vedat Muriqi
Vedat Muriqi Attacker
7.22
11
Takuma Asano
Takuma Asano Attacker
6.53
17
Jan Virgili
Jan Virgili
Attacker56'
6.66
Referee : César Soto Grado

Starting XI

1
Stole Dimitrievski
Stole Dimitrievski Goalkeeper
6.81
5
César Tárrega
César Tárrega Defender
6.73
12
Thierry Correia
Thierry Correia Defender
6.6
20
Renzo Saravia
Renzo Saravia
Defender11'
6.46
14
José Gayà
José Gayà Defender
6.63
18
Pepelu
Pepelu Defender
6.95
2
Guido Rodríguez
Guido Rodríguez Midfielder
7.06
16
Diego López
Diego López Midfielder
6.7
8
Javi Guerra
Javi Guerra
Midfielder60'
6.67
17
Largie Ramazani
Largie Ramazani Midfielder
6.84
21
Jesús Vázquez
Jesús Vázquez
Defender90+5'
6.56
23
Filip Ugrinic
Filip Ugrinic Midfielder
6.83
11
Luis Rioja
Luis Rioja
Attacker60'
6.84
6
Umar Sadiq
Umar Sadiq Attacker
6.52
15
Lucas Beltrán
Lucas Beltrán Attacker
6.65
7
Arnaut Danjuma
Arnaut Danjuma
Attacker60'
6.73

Events

2ND-HALF
90+5'
Event
Jesús Vázquez Largie Ramazani
9th Substitution
Event
Javi Llabrés Pablo Torre
8th Substitution
85'
Event
Antonio Sánchez Omar Mascarell
7th Substitution
76'
Event
David López Manu Morlanes
6th Substitution
76'
67'
Event
Umar Sadiq
Header / 2nd Goal
60'
Event
Javi Guerra Diego López
4th Substitution
60'
Event
Luis Rioja Filip Ugrinic
5th Substitution
60'
Event
Arnaut Danjuma Lucas Beltrán
3rd Substitution
Event
Jan Virgili Takuma Asano
2nd Substitution
56'
52'
Event
Guido Rodríguez
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Samú Costa
Header / 1st Goal
49'
1ST-HALF
41'
Event
Stole Dimitrievski
Time wasting / 1st Yellowcard
11'
Event
Renzo Saravia Thierry Correia
1st Substitution

Match Commentary

90
Corner Corner
David López from Mallorca missed a header from the center of the box. The assist came from Sergi Darder, who delivered a cross following a corner.
90
Update Update
Renzo Saravia from Valencia won a free kick on the right wing.
90
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity for Mallorca. Samú Costa headed the ball from the right side of the six-yard box but missed the target. The assist came from Sergi Darder, who delivered a cross following a corner.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Mallorca after Stole Dimitrievski concedes.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Samú Costa of Mallorca.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Valencia: Jesús Vázquez replaces Largie Ramazani.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Mallorca after Stole Dimitrievski concedes.
90
Corner Corner
David López of Mallorca misses a chance, heading the ball from the center of the box after a corner.
90
Update Update
Guido Rodríguez from Valencia won a free kick in defense.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with the match finishing 1-1 between Mallorca and Valencia.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Mallorca after a concession by César Tárrega.
90
Update Update
Guido Rodríguez of Valencia won a free kick in defense.
89
Update Update
David López from Mallorca commits a foul.
89
Update Update
Pepelu from Valencia won a free kick in defense.
88
Update Update
Samú Costa from Mallorca won a free kick on the left wing.
88
Update Update
Umar Sadiq from Valencia committed a foul.
87
Update Update
Johan Mojica of Mallorca won a free kick in an attacking position.
87
Update Update
Umar Sadiq from Valencia committed a foul.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Mallorca: Javi Llabrés replaces Pablo Torre.
83
Attempt Attempt
Arnaut Danjuma's right-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked.
83
Corner Corner
Valencia wins a corner, conceded by Martin Valjent.
81
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Umar Sadiq from Valencia takes a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it is saved by goalkeeper Leo Román in the center of the goal for Mallorca.
80
Update Update
Largie Ramazani of Valencia won a free kick in defense.
80
Update Update
Foul committed by Sergi Darder of Mallorca.
78
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Samú Costa from Mallorca.
78
Update Update
César Tárrega of Valencia commits a foul.
78
Corner Corner
César Tárrega from Valencia missed a header from the center of the box following a corner.
78
Update Update
Samú Costa from Mallorca won a free kick in defense.
77
Corner Corner
Valencia wins a corner after Johan Mojica concedes.
76
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Mallorca: David López replaces Manu Morlanes.
76
Update Update
Offside called against Mallorca. Samú Costa is offside.
76
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Mallorca: Antonio Sánchez replaces Omar Mascarell.
74
Attempt Attempt
Largie Ramazani from Valencia had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from the center of the box, but it went close and missed. Umar Sadiq provided the assist.
71
Update Update
Renzo Saravia fouled Valencia.
71
Update Update
Jan Virgili from Mallorca was awarded a free kick on the left wing.
70
Update Update
Largie Ramazani from Valencia misses a chance, heading the ball high and wide to the right from the center of the box. The assist came from José Gayà, who provided the cross.
69
Update Update
Umar Sadiq from Valencia commits a foul.
69
Update Update
Omar Mascarell from Mallorca won a free kick in defense.
69
Attempt Attempt
Jan Virgili of Mallorca attempts an attack, shooting with his right foot from the center of the box, but his effort is saved by Valencia's goalkeeper Stole Dimitrievski. The assist came from Manu Morlanes.
67
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The match is now 1-1 as Umar Sadiq scores for Valencia with a header from close range into the left corner, assisted by Javi Guerra's header.
66
Corner Corner
Goal! The match is now 1-1 as Umar Sadiq scores for Valencia with a header from close range into the left corner, assisted by Javi Guerra's header.
66
Update Update
Foul committed by Vedat Muriqi of Mallorca.
66
Update Update
Pepelu commits a handball for Valencia.
64
Update Update
Umar Sadiq from Valencia commits a foul.
64
Update Update
Sergi Darder from Mallorca won a free kick on the left wing.
63
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Vedat Muriqi of Mallorca heads the ball from inside the six-yard box, but Stole Dimitrievski of Valencia saves it in the top left corner.
63
Corner Corner
Missed chance. Manu Morlanes from Mallorca shot with his right foot from the right side of the box after a corner, but missed.
62
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Mallorca after Stole Dimitrievski concedes.
62
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Jan Virgili of Mallorca has a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it's saved in the right corner by Stole Dimitrievski of Valencia. The assist came from Manu Morlanes.
61
Attempt Attempt
Vedat Muriqi's left-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked.
60
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Valencia: Luis Rioja replaces Filip Ugrinic.
60
Update Update
Johan Mojica of Mallorca was awarded a free kick in defense.
60
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Valencia: Arnaut Danjuma replaces Lucas Beltrán.
60
Update Update
Foul committed by Diego López of Valencia.
60
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Valencia: Javi Guerra replaces Diego López.
58
Attempt Attempt
Pablo Torre's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The assist was provided by Samú Costa.
58
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Mallorca after Pepelu concedes.
57
Attempt Attempt
Vedat Muriqi's left-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked.
56
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Mallorca: Jan Virgili replaces Takuma Asano.
55
Update Update
Offside called against Mallorca. Takuma Asano is offside.
53
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Samú Costa from Mallorca shoots with his right foot from the center of the box, but the ball goes high and wide to the right.
52
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Guido Rodríguez from Valencia receives a yellow card for a foul.
52
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Mallorca after Stole Dimitrievski concedes.
51
Update Update
Vedat Muriqi of Mallorca won a free kick in the attacking area.
51
Update Update
Guido Rodríguez of Valencia committed a foul.
50
Update Update
Offside called against Valencia. Filip Ugrinic is offside.
49
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Mallorca leads 1-0 against Valencia. Samú Costa scores with a header from close range into the top left corner, assisted by Sergi Darder’s cross following a corner.
48
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Mallorca after a concession by José Gayà.
47
Update Update
Offside called against Mallorca. Takuma Asano is offside.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the match score at 0-0 between Mallorca and Valencia.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Mallorca and Valencia tied at 0-0.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 1 minute of added time.
44
Update Update
Foul committed by Pablo Maffeo of Mallorca.
44
Update Update
José Gayà of Valencia won a free kick in defense.
42
Update Update
Pablo Maffeo from Mallorca won a free kick on the right wing.
42
Update Update
Foul committed by José Gayà of Valencia.
41
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Takuma Asano from Mallorca shot with his right foot from a difficult position on the right.
41
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Stole Dimitrievski from Valencia receives a yellow card.
37
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Takuma Asano from Mallorca shot with his right foot from the center of the box but missed. The assist came from Pablo Maffeo's cross.
37
Update Update
Umar Sadiq of Valencia is flagged for offside.
33
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Sergi Darder from Mallorca takes a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved.
30
Corner Corner
Valencia wins a corner after Martin Valjent concedes.
29
Update Update
Foul committed by Sergi Darder of Mallorca.
29
Update Update
Guido Rodríguez of Valencia won a free kick in defense.
26
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Sergi Darder from Mallorca takes a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it is saved.
24
Update Update
Vedat Muriqi of Mallorca won a free kick in an attacking position.
24
Update Update
Vedat Muriqi from Mallorca won a free kick in an attacking position.
23
Update Update
Omar Mascarell from Mallorca won a free kick in defense.
23
Update Update
Umar Sadiq from Valencia commits a foul.
22
Corner Corner
Valencia is awarded a corner after Martin Valjent concedes.
22
Update Update
Pablo Torre from Mallorca committed a foul.
22
Update Update
Filip Ugrinic from Valencia won a free kick on the right wing.
21
Update Update
Renzo Saravia from Valencia won a free kick on the right wing.
21
Update Update
Fouled by Takuma Asano of Mallorca.
21
Attempt Attempt
Filip Ugrinic's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Renzo Saravia provided the assist.
20
Attempt Attempt
Renzo Saravia from Valencia had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box but missing to the left. Guido Rodríguez provided the assist.
17
Update Update
Offside called against Mallorca. Vedat Muriqi is offside.
16
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Mallorca after Largie Ramazani concedes.
15
Update Update
Foul committed by Lucas Beltrán against Valencia.
15
Update Update
Pablo Torre from Mallorca won a free kick in an attacking position.
14
Attempt Attempt
Samú Costa's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The assist came from Pablo Maffeo.
13
Corner Corner
Vedat Muriqi of Mallorca had a missed chance as he headed the ball from the center of the box, but it went high. The assist came from Sergi Darder, who delivered a cross following a corner.
12
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Mallorca after a concession by César Tárrega.
11
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Valencia: Renzo Saravia replaces Thierry Correia due to injury.
10
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Thierry Correia of Valencia.
6
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Vedat Muriqi from Mallorca took a right-footed shot from the center of the box.

CONCLUSION

Mallorca's dominance in possession failed to yield a win, resulting in a 1-1 stalemate against Valencia that underscores the fine margins in La Liga. The home side, deemed stronger, pushed forward but lacked the killer instinct, allowing Valencia to capitalize on limited counters. This draw maintains status quo for both, with Mallorca's control not converting to points and Valencia earning reward for defensive solidity. Expect Mallorca to reflect on wastefulness, while Valencia builds momentum from resilient away display.

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