Mallorca vs Real Oviedo Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
Estadi Mallorca Son Moix Sat, 23 May - 7:00 PM
La Liga
Mallorca MLL
3 Winner 0
Real Oviedo OVI
Full Time Sat, 23 May 7:00 PM
Round 38 Regular Season
Vedat Muriqi - 88'
Manu Morlanes - 83'
Pablo Torre - 42'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Mallorca hosted Real Oviedo and secured a 3-0 victory with the halftime score standing at 1-0. The home side controlled 58 percent of possession while the visitors held 42 percent. No red cards were issued to either team during the contest. Mallorca entered as the stronger side and delivered an outcome consistent with that assessment. Pre-match indicators showed minimal deviation at 2.1 percent with the result aligning to those projections. Efficiency metrics remained in line with expectations for the matchup. The final score of 3-0 reflected steady progression from the opening period without major disruptions.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: The match exhibited minimal structural deviation from pre-match projections at 2.1 percent.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with the stronger team's established patterns.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data was unavailable so alignment could not be assessed.
  • Market alignment: The outcome proved aligned with available market indicators.
  • xG expectations: No expected goals values were recorded for either side in the data.
  • Event impact: Mallorca scored three times to produce the 3-0 final result.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred so no distortion from disciplinary events took place.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

J. Sánchez Martínez

Spain 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

R. Cabañero Martínez

1st Assistant

Spain

J. López Mir

2nd Assistant

Spain

D. López Jiménez

4th Official

Spain

League averages

La Liga Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 23.04
Yellow cards / match 4.14
Red cards / match 0.25
Penalties / match 0.29
Mallorca M. Demichelis
M. Demichelis
VS
Real Oviedo J. Almada Álves
J. Almada Álves
1.13
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.84
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Levante Rank: 75 L
Getafe Rank: 76 L
Villarreal Rank: 84 D
Girona Rank: 75 W
Deportivo Alavés Rank: 77 L
Valencia Rank: 79 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Deportivo Alavés Rank: 77 L
Real Madrid Rank: 92 L
Getafe Rank: 76 D
Real Betis Rank: 82 L
Elche Rank: 75 L
Villarreal Rank: 82 D
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 6 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Mallorca
97.86%
Draw
1.92%
Away Real Oviedo
0.22%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
75.05
59.72
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Mallorca
Real Oviedo
Power Score
75.05
59.72
League Position
19
20
Global Rank
115
197

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Mallorca — Opponent-weighted form score
Real Oviedo — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Mallorca Real Oviedo

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Mallorca

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Real Oviedo

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Mallorca ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Real Oviedo
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Mallorca Real Oviedo
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Mallorca Real Oviedo
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Mallorca
Real Oviedo
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Mallorca
vs
Real Oviedo
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Mallorca Real Oviedo
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Mallorca 0.00
Real Oviedo 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Mallorca Real Oviedo
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Mallorca 0.00
Real Oviedo 0.00
Mallorca
Real Oviedo
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • MLL had peak pressure around 10'.
  • MLL started the game with stronger pressure.
MLL Pressure OVI Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: MLL reached the top pressure at 10' (85.22).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 10 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Mallorca MLL Home
10 matches
Real Oviedo OVI Away
Match Record
3
Wins
1
6
Draws
6
1
Losses
3
Goals
8
Goals Scored
6
6
Goals Conceded
8
+2
Goal Difference
-2

Data last updated: 2026-05-23T18:30:52+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
L. Román Riquelme
Spain
1 L. Román Riquelme
P. Maffeo Becerra
Argentina
23 P. Maffeo Becerra
M. Valjent
Slovakia
24 M. Valjent
O. Mascarell González
Substitution
Spain
5 O. Mascarell González
A. Latorre Grueso
Substitution
Spain
3 A. Latorre Grueso
S. Costa
Substitution
Portugal
12 S. Costa
S. Darder Moll
Spain
10 S. Darder Moll
M. Morlanes
Spain
8 M. Morlanes
T. Asano
Substitution
Japan
11 T. Asano
V. Muriqi
Kosovo
7 V. Muriqi
P. Torre Carral
Substitution
Spain
20 P. Torre Carral
Pitch
H. Moldovan
Romania
1 H. Moldovan
A. Alhassane Bonkan
Substitution
Niger
3 A. Alhassane Bonkan
D. Calvo San Román
Spain
12 D. Calvo San Román
E. Bailly
Ivory Coast
2 E. Bailly
I. Vidal Miralles
Substitution
Spain
22 I. Vidal Miralles
S. Colombatto
Substitution
Argentina
11 S. Colombatto
N. Fonseca
Uruguay
23 N. Fonseca
A. Reina Campos
Spain
5 A. Reina Campos
S. Cazorla González
Substitution
Spain
8 S. Cazorla González
I. Chaira
Morocco
7 I. Chaira
Á. Forés Mendoza
Substitution
Spain
19 Á. Forés Mendoza

General Information

Date & Time :
May 23, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 La Liga, Spain · Round 38 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estadi Mallorca Son Moix
Capacity :
26020
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Raúl Cabañero Martínez
José María Sánchez Martínez
Juan José López Mir
David López Jiménez

Statistics

Possession
MLL
58%
OVI
42%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 0
6 Big Chances Created 0
7 Shots 6
53 Dangerous attacks 28
58 Possession 42
6 Corners 5
8 Free kicks 10
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

71 Ball Safe 68
11 Goal Attempts 3
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 38
23 Successful Headers 12
8 Goal Kicks 12
18 Throwins 20
1 Assists 0
10 Dribble Attempts 13
5 Substitutions 5
5 Successful Dribbles 5
1 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

4 Big Chances Missed 0
118 Attacks 78

Possession

21 Successful Long Passes 29
45 Successful Long Passes Percentage 43
47 Long Passes 67
84 Successful Passes Percentage 75
409 Successful Passes 270
485 Passes 360
18 Key Passes 5

Defensive

8 Interceptions 9
50 Duels Won 38
15 Tackles 12
0 Saves 4

Build-up

6 Accurate Crosses 3
33 Total Crosses 15

Discipline

10 Fouls 8
0 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : José María Sánchez Martínez

Starting XI ▼

1
Leo Román
Leo Román Goalkeeper
6.85
3
Toni Lato
Toni Lato Defender
6.54
34
Javier Olaizola
Javier Olaizola
Defender85'
6.72
5
Omar Mascarell
Omar Mascarell Defender
6.8
21
Antonio Raíllo
Antonio Raíllo
Defender54'
6.88
23
Pablo Maffeo
Pablo Maffeo Defender
6.86
24
Martin Valjent
Martin Valjent Defender
6.68
8
Manu Morlanes
Manu Morlanes Midfielder
6.71
10
Sergi Darder
Sergi Darder Midfielder
6.99
12
Samú Costa
Samú Costa Midfielder
6.9
6
Antonio Sánchez
Antonio Sánchez
Midfielder62'
6.47
7
Vedat Muriqi
Vedat Muriqi Attacker
7.2
11
Takuma Asano
Takuma Asano Attacker
6.55
17
Jan Virgili
Jan Virgili
Attacker61'
6.66
20
Pablo Torre
Pablo Torre Attacker
6.77
9
Abdón Prats
Abdón Prats
Attacker85'
6.47
Referee : José María Sánchez Martínez

Starting XI ▼

1
Horațiu Moldovan
Horațiu Moldovan Goalkeeper
6.24
2
Eric Bailly
Eric Bailly Defender
6.86
3
Rahim Alhassane
Rahim Alhassane Defender
6.65
25
Javi López
Javi López
Defender77'
6.58
12
Dani Calvo
Dani Calvo Defender
6.85
22
Nacho Vidal
Nacho Vidal Defender
6.67
24
Lucas Ahijado
Lucas Ahijado
Defender77'
6.63
5
Alberto Reina
Alberto Reina Midfielder
6.79
7
Ilyas Chaira
Ilyas Chaira Midfielder
6.73
8
Santi Cazorla
Santi Cazorla Midfielder
6.78
17
Thiago Borbas
Thiago Borbas
Attacker63'
6.51
11
Santiago Colombatto
Santiago Colombatto Midfielder
6.79
21
Luka Ilic
Luka Ilic
Midfielder64'
6.42
23
Nicolás Fonseca
Nicolás Fonseca Midfielder
6.68
19
Álex Forés
Álex Forés Attacker
6.52
10
Haissem Hassan
Haissem Hassan
Attacker46'
6.67

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Vedat Muriqi
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
88'
Event
Javier Olaizola → Toni Lato
9th Substitution
85'
Event
Abdón Prats → Pablo Torre
10th Substitution
85'
Event
Manu Morlanes
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
83'
77'
Event
Lucas Ahijado → Nacho Vidal
7th Substitution
77'
Event
Javi López → Rahim Alhassane
8th Substitution
64'
Event
Luka Ilic → Santiago Colombatto
6th Substitution
63'
Event
Thiago Borbas → Santi Cazorla
5th Substitution
Event
Antonio Sánchez → Samú Costa
4th Substitution
62'
Event
Jan Virgili → Takuma Asano
3rd Substitution
61'
Event
Samú Costa
3rd Yellowcard
58'
Event
Antonio Raíllo   → Omar Mascarell
2nd Substitution
54'
Event
Manu Morlanes
2nd Yellowcard
48'
46'
Event
Haissem Hassan → Álex Forés
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Pablo Torre
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
42'
38'
Event
Santi Cazorla
1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Abdon Prats Bastidas takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Vedat Muriqi takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Haissem Hassan takes a left-footed shot but misses.
88
Attempt Attempt
Vedat Muriqi takes a shot with his left foot and scores.
85
Update Update
Abdon Prats Bastidas comes on for Pablo Torre.
85
Update Update
Javier Olaizola replaces Antonio Latorre Grueso.
83
Attempt Attempt
Manuel Morlanes scores with a right-footed shot.
80
Attempt Attempt
Ilyas Chaira takes a right-footed shot but misses.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Lucas Ahijado comes on for Ignacio Vidal Miralles.
77
Update Update
Javier Lopez is on, and Abdel Rahim Alhassane Bonkano is off.
71
Attempt Attempt
Pablo Torre takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
67
Attempt Attempt
Vedat Muriqi attempts a header but misses the shot.
66
Attempt Attempt
Sergi Darder takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
63
Update Update
Thiago Nicolas Borbas is on, and Santigo Cazorla Gonzalez is off.
63
Update Update
Luka Ilic replaces Santiago Colombatto.
61
Update Update
Antonio Sanchez Navarro is on, and Samuel Almeida Costa is off.
61
Update Update
Jan Virgili replaces Takuma Asano.
58
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Samuel Almeida Costa receives a yellow card.
55
Attempt Attempt
Manuel Morlanes takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
54
Update Update
Antonio Jose Raillo Arenas is on, and Omar Mascarell Gonzalez is off.
48
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Manuel Morlanes receives a yellow card.
46
Update Update
Haissem Hassan replaces Alex Fores.
45
Attempt Attempt
Takuma Asano takes a left-footed shot but misses.
42
Attempt Attempt
Pablo Torre takes a left-footed shot and scores.
42
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Pablo Torre scores to make it 1-0, assisted by Pablo Maffeo.
42
Attempt Attempt
Pablo Torre scores with a left-footed shot.
40
Attempt Attempt
Vedat Muriqi's right-footed shot is blocked.
38
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Santiago Cazorla Gonzalez.
37
Attempt Attempt
Takuma Asano takes a left-footed shot but misses.
37
Attempt Attempt
Eric Bertrand Bailly takes a shot with his head, but it's blocked.
36
Attempt Attempt
Alberto Reina's right-footed shot is blocked.
34
Attempt Attempt
Alberto Reina attempts a header but misses the shot.
28
Attempt Attempt
Takuma Asano's left-footed shot is blocked.
24
Attempt Attempt
Vedat Muriqi's header is saved.
23
Attempt Attempt
Vedat Muriqi takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
19
Attempt Attempt
Pablo Torre takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
17
Attempt Attempt
Takuma Asano takes a right-footed shot but misses.
14
Attempt Attempt
Nicolas Fonseca takes a right-footed shot but misses.
11
Attempt Attempt
Eric Bertrand Bailly attempts a header but misses the shot.
11
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Pedro Calvo Sanroman attempts a header but misses the shot.
9
Attempt Attempt
Vedat Muriqi attempts a header but misses the shot.
6
Update Update
Martin Valjent's header is blocked.
3
Attempt Attempt
Vedat Muriqi takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.

CONCLUSION

Mallorca maintained control throughout after taking the lead before halftime and added further goals in the second period to close out the 3-0 win. Possession favored the home team at 58 percent which supported their ability to dictate tempo against Real Oviedo. The absence of red cards allowed both sides to keep full squads on the field and avoided any late adjustments. Alignment with pre-match indicators held steady at a minimal deviation level confirming the result followed expected lines. Efficiency stayed consistent without notable shifts that might have altered the flow. Overall the contest progressed in a measured manner with Mallorca converting opportunities steadily to secure the three-goal margin.

Mallorca vs Real Oviedo preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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