Málaga vs Sporting Gijón Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio La Rosaleda Sat, 9 May - 7:00 PM
La Liga 2
Málaga MLA
2 Winner 1
Sporting Gijón SPO
Full Time Sat, 9 May 7:00 PM
Round 39 Regular Season
Joaquín Muñoz - 86'
Chupe - 54'
Goal
|
Goal
Jonathan Dubasin - 11'
Carlos Dotor 45' Red Card
|
Red Card Jonathan Dubasin 25'

CONTEXT

Málaga secured a hard-fought 2-1 home victory over Sporting Gijón, overturning a 0-1 halftime deficit in a match defined by high drama and disciplinary issues. Despite dominating possession with 66% to Sporting's 34%, Málaga struggled early, conceding first before the break. The second half exploded into chaos as both teams received a red card each, creating a red card distortion that reshaped the game's structure. Málaga, identified as the stronger team, capitalized on their numerical challenges and numerical parity post-reds to score twice and claim the win. This outcome marked a significant structural deviation of 41.1% in Málaga's favor, while aligning with pre-match market assessments. Efficiency stayed in line with expectations amid the intense battle.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Málaga's 2-1 win showed a significant structural deviation of 41.1%.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with expectations for both teams.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable, preventing alignment assessment.
  • Market alignment: Outcome aligned with pre-match market predictions.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated due to missing data.
  • Event impact: Red cards to both teams heavily influenced second-half dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion was a key second-half adjustment factor.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

R. Sánchez López

Spain 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

J. Mira García

1st Assistant

Spain

J. Hernández García

2nd Assistant

Spain

V. Broncano Suárez

4th Official

Spain

League averages

La Liga 2 Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 22.19
Yellow cards / match 4.73
Red cards / match 0.27
Penalties / match 0.33
Málaga J. Funes Arjona
J. Funes Arjona
VS
Sporting Gijón B. Jiménez Sáez
B. Jiménez Sáez
1.92
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.32
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
SD Eibar Rank: 70 W
Castellón Rank: 67 L
Almería Rank: 68 L
Las Palmas Rank: 71 W
Deportivo La Coruña Rank: 70 D
FC Andorra Rank: 66 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Ceuta Rank: 61 L
Córdoba Rank: 62 L
Cádiz Rank: 57 W
Burgos Rank: 68 L
Real Sociedad II Rank: 60 W
Racing Santander Rank: 71 L
14
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
14 - 9 - 6
6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Málaga
58.91%
Draw
22.78%
Away Sporting Gijón
18.31%

Movement

Changes since opening
Málaga
-37.16%
Draw
+19.05%
Sporting Gijón
+18.12%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
69.8
63.25
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Málaga
Sporting Gijón
Power Score
69.8
63.25
League Position
5
13
Global Rank
214
389

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Málaga — Opponent-weighted form score
Sporting Gijón — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Málaga Sporting Gijón

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Málaga

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Sporting Gijón

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Málaga ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sporting Gijón
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
44.32
18.68
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
18.68
44.32
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Málaga +2.60 Efficiency Index
vs
Sporting Gijón -2.60 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Málaga
Sporting Gijón
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Málaga ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sporting Gijón
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Málaga Sporting Gijón
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Málaga Sporting Gijón
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Málaga
Sporting Gijón
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Málaga
vs
Sporting Gijón
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Málaga Sporting Gijón
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Málaga 0.23
Sporting Gijón 0.19
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Málaga Sporting Gijón
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Málaga 0.04
Sporting Gijón 0.02
Málaga
Sporting Gijón
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • MLA had peak pressure around 57'.
  • SPO started the game with stronger pressure.
MLA Pressure SPO Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: MLA reached the top pressure at 57' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 29 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Málaga MLA Home
29 matches
Sporting Gijón SPO Away
Match Record
14
Wins
6
9
Draws
9
6
Losses
14
Goals
41
Goals Scored
29
29
Goals Conceded
41
+12
Goal Difference
-12

Data last updated: 2026-05-10T00:05:27+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 5-4-1
Pitch
A. Herrero Peinador
Spain
1 A. Herrero Peinador
C. Puga Medina
Spain
3 C. Puga Medina
D. Murillo Dominguez
Spain
16 D. Murillo Dominguez
E. Galilea Azaceta
Substitution
Spain
4 E. Galilea Azaceta
R. Garrido Hierro
Spain
31 R. Garrido Hierro
D. Brašanac
Substitution
Serbia
5 D. Brašanac
I. Merino Rodríguez
Substitution
Spain
23 I. Merino Rodríguez
D. Larrubia Romano
Substitution
Spain
10 D. Larrubia Romano
C. Dotor Gonzalez
Spain
12 C. Dotor Gonzalez
J. Muñoz Benavides
Spain
11 J. Muñoz Benavides
A. Niño Heredia
Substitution
Spain
21 A. Niño Heredia
Pitch
O. Yáñez Alabart
Spain
1 O. Yáñez Alabart
D. Sánchez Pérez
Substitution
Spain
5 D. Sánchez Pérez
A. Cuenca Cejudo
Substitution
Spain
44 A. Cuenca Cejudo
L. Perrin
France
4 L. Perrin
P. Vázquez Pérez
Spain
15 P. Vázquez Pérez
G. Rosas Alonso
Substitution
Spain
2 G. Rosas Alonso
G. Campos Ansó Fernández
Substitution
Spain
7 G. Campos Ansó Fernández
A. Corredera Alardi
Substitution
Spain
14 A. Corredera Alardi
J. Smith
British Virgin Islands
24 J. Smith
C. Gelabert Pina
Spain
10 C. Gelabert Pina
J. Dubasin
Belgium
17 J. Dubasin

General Information

Date & Time :
May 09, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 39 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estadio La Rosaleda
Capacity :
30044
Attendance :
27896
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Jesús Manuel Mira García
José Hernández García
Rafael Sánchez López
Víctor Manuel Broncano Suárez

Statistics

Possession
MLA
64%
SPO
36%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 2
9 Shots 1
105 Dangerous attacks 27
66 Possession 34
9 Corners 1
11 Free kicks 4
1 Yellow Cards 5
1 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

12 Successful Dribbles 5
7 Goal Kicks 15
26 Dribble Attempts 12
16 Throwins 11
59 Ball Safe 73
1 Hit Woodwork 1
2 Assists 1
46 Successful Dribbles Percentage 42
12 Goal Attempts 4
0 Injuries 1
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

148 Attacks 65
2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

571 Successful Passes 264
43 Long Passes 52
633 Passes 332
28 Successful Long Passes 16
90 Successful Passes Percentage 80
65 Successful Long Passes Percentage 31
19 Key Passes 3

Defensive

18 Tackles 27
50 Duels Won 44
1 Interceptions 7
1 Saves 4

Build-up

22 Total Crosses 8
4 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

2 Offsides 3
4 Fouls 11

Lineup

Referee : Rafael Sánchez López

Starting XI ▼

1
Alfonso Herrero
Alfonso Herrero Goalkeeper
3
Carlos Puga
Carlos Puga Defender
4
Einar Galilea
Einar Galilea Defender
6
Ramón Enríquez
Ramón Enríquez
Midfielder46'
16
Diego Murillo
Diego Murillo Defender
31
Rafita Garrido
Rafita Garrido Defender
5
Darko Brasanac
Darko Brasanac Midfielder
9
Chupe
Chupe
Attacker35'
10
David Larrubia
David Larrubia Midfielder
7
Haitam Abaida
Haitam Abaida
Attacker70'
11
Joaquín Muñoz
Joaquín Muñoz Midfielder
12
Carlos Dotor
Carlos Dotor Midfielder
23
Izan Merino
Izan Merino Midfielder
37
Rafa Rodríguez
Rafa Rodríguez
Midfielder83'
21
Adrián Niño
Adrián Niño Attacker
35
Aarón Ochoa
Aarón Ochoa
Midfielder69'
Referee : Rafael Sánchez López

Starting XI ▼

1
Rubén Yáñez
Rubén Yáñez Goalkeeper
2
Guille Rosas
Guille Rosas Defender
47
Miguel Conde
Miguel Conde
Attacker90'
4
Lucas Perrin
Lucas Perrin Defender
5
Diego Sánchez
Diego Sánchez Defender
20
Kevin Vázquez
Kevin Vázquez
Defender76'
15
Pablo Vázquez
Pablo Vázquez Defender
44
Andrés Cuenca
Andrés Cuenca Defender
36
Manu Rodríguez
Manu Rodríguez
Midfielder76'
7
Gaspar Campos
Gaspar Campos Midfielder
19
Juan Otero
Juan Otero
Attacker59'
10
César Gelabert
César Gelabert Midfielder
14
Àlex Corredera
Àlex Corredera Midfielder
3
Pablo García
Pablo García
Defender90'
24
Justin Smith
Justin Smith Midfielder
17
Jonathan Dubasin
Jonathan Dubasin Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
90+2'
Event
Juan Otero
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
90'
Event
Miguel Conde → Guille Rosas
9th Substitution
90'
Event
Pablo García → Àlex Corredera
10th Substitution
Event
Joaquín Muñoz
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
86'
86'
Event
César Gelabert
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Rafa Rodríguez → Izan Merino
8th Substitution
83'
Event
Diego Murillo
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
81'
76'
Event
Kevin Vázquez → Diego Sánchez
7th Substitution
76'
Event
Manu Rodríguez → Andrés Cuenca
6th Substitution
Event
Haitam Abaida → David Larrubia
5th Substitution
70'
Event
Aarón Ochoa → Adrián Niño
4th Substitution
69'
61'
Event
Rubén Yáñez
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
61'
Event
Justin Smith
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
59'
Event
Juan Otero → Gaspar Campos
3rd Substitution
Event
Chupe
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
54'
Event
Ramón Enríquez → Einar Galilea
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
45+8'
Event
Andrés Cuenca
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Carlos Dotor
Professional foul last man / 2nd Redcard
45'
Event
Chupe → Darko Brasanac
1st Substitution
35'
25'
Event
Jonathan Dubasin
Foul / 1st Redcard
24'
Event
Jonathan Dubasin
Card adjusted
13'
Event
Jonathan Dubasin
Goal awarded
11'
Event
Jonathan Dubasin
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Miguel Conde comes on for Guillermo Rosas Alonso.
90
Update Update
Pablo Garcia Carrasco replaces Allexandre Corredera Alardi.
90
Attempt Attempt
Lucas Perrin takes a header shot but misses.
89
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Cesar Gelabert receives a yellow card.
88
Attempt Attempt
Chupete takes a right-footed shot but misses.
86
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Joaquin Munoz Benavides with his right foot results in a goal.
83
Update Update
Rafa Rodriguez comes on for Izan Merino.
81
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Diego Murillo receives a yellow card.
77
Attempt Attempt
Aaron Ochoa's right-footed shot is saved.
77
Attempt Attempt
Joaquin Munoz Benavides takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
76
Update Update
Miguel Rocha replaces Andres Cuenca.
76
Update Update
Miguel Rocha comes on for Andres Cuenca.
75
Attempt Attempt
Izan Merino takes a right-footed shot but misses.
70
Update Update
Haitam Abaida is on, and Chupete is off.
69
Update Update
Aaron Ochoa comes on for Adrian Nino.
66
Attempt Attempt
Guillermo Rosas Alonso takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
63
Attempt Attempt
David Larrubia's left-footed shot is blocked.
61
Attempt Attempt
Carlos Puga takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
61
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card for Orlando Ruben Yanez Alabart.
59
Update Update
Juan Ferney Otero Tovar comes on for Campos Gaspar.
57
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Nino takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
56
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Nino's right-footed shot is blocked.
46
Attempt Attempt
Chupete takes a right-footed shot but misses.
46
Update Update
Ramon Enriquez Rodriguez comes on for Einar Galilea Azaceta.
45
Attempt Attempt
Izan Merino takes a right-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Joaquin Munoz Benavides with his right foot is blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Chupete takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
36
Attempt Attempt
Izan Merino takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
36
Update Update
Chupete replaces Darko Brasanac.
32
Attempt Attempt
Carlos Dotor takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
31
Attempt Attempt
Joaquin Munoz Benavides takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
31
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Nino takes a left-footed shot but misses.
31
Attempt Attempt
Carlos Dotor attempts a header but misses the shot.
29
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Nino takes a left-footed shot but misses.
23
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Nino attempts a header but misses the shot.
15
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Nino takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
13
Update Update
The VAR review has confirmed the goal for Jonathan Dubasin.
11
Attempt Attempt
Jonathan Dubasin scores with a left-footed shot.
11
Attempt Attempt
Jonathan Dubasin scores with a left-footed shot.
10
Attempt Attempt
Jonathan Dubasin takes a left-footed shot but misses.
8
Attempt Attempt
Allexandre Corredera Alardi takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.

CONCLUSION

Málaga's comeback triumph highlighted their superiority as the stronger side, navigating a red card distortion and halftime disadvantage to prevail 2-1. With 66% possession underscoring their control, the win reflected market alignment despite a significant 41.1% structural deviation. Both teams' dismissals intensified the contest, yet Málaga's second-half resolve proved decisive. This result reinforces their competitive edge, efficiently converting dominance into points amid chaotic conditions.

Málaga vs Sporting Gijón preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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