Málaga vs Las Palmas Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain

Estadio La Rosaleda Sat, 11 Apr - 4:30 PM

La Liga 2

Málaga MLA

Las Palmas LPA

Full Time Sat, 11 Apr 4:30 PM

Round 35 Regular Season

Joaquín Muñoz - 68'

Diego Murillo - 58'

CONTEXT

The match between Málaga and Las Palmas is finished, ending 2-0 to the home side at full time. The teams went in level at 0-0 after a cautious first half, but Málaga scored twice after the interval to claim a comfortable victory. Pre-match expectations had forecast a tight contest, with Málaga given a 38.6 percent chance of success against Las Palmas’ 32.2 percent. The result represented a significant deviation in favor of Málaga, who performed strongly as the designated stronger team and secured all three points. The efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations, and the outcome aligned with the pre-match projection for the winner even if the margin exceeded what was widely anticipated. No red cards were shown, and there were no major disruptive events. Málaga achieved the win despite trailing in possession (44 percent to 56 percent). With no expected-goals data available, consistency with xG cannot be assessed, yet the result still reflected Málaga’s overall effectiveness across the 90 minutes.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Málaga showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
Event impact: No major event distortion.
Red card distortion: None.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

A. Fuentes Molina

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

C. Martínez Caballero

1st Assistant

I. Hernández Ramos

2nd Assistant

G. Rius Riu

4th Official

J. Funes Arjona

L. García Fernández

1.88

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.68

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

7 - 7 - 7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Málaga

38.55%

Draw

29.31%

Las Palmas

32.15%

Movement

Changes since opening

Málaga

-59.31%

Draw

+27.39%

Las Palmas

+31.93%

Team Power Ranking

29.87

29.54

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Málaga

Las Palmas

Power Score

29.87

29.54

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Málaga — Opponent-weighted form score

Las Palmas — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Málaga Las Palmas

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Málaga

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Las Palmas

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Málaga ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Las Palmas

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

44.09

24.02

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

24.02

44.09

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Málaga +2.04 Efficiency Index

Las Palmas -2.04 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Málaga

Las Palmas

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Málaga ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Las Palmas

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Málaga Las Palmas

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Málaga Las Palmas

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Málaga

Las Palmas

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Málaga

Las Palmas

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Málaga Las Palmas

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Málaga Las Palmas

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Málaga

Las Palmas

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

LPA had peak pressure around 91'.
LPA started the game with stronger pressure.

MLA Pressure LPA Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: LPA reached the top pressure at 91' (95.39).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 21 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Málaga MLA Home

21 matches

Las Palmas LPA Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

Goal Difference

Data last updated: 2026-04-12T00:10:59+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2

Match Formation 4-2-3-1

1 A. Herrero Peinador

3 C. Puga Medina

16 D. Murillo Dominguez

20 F. Montero Rubio

31 R. Garrido Hierro

11 J. Muñoz Benavides

12 C. Dotor Gonzalez

8 J. Jiménez Melero

35 A. Ochoa Moloney

9 C. Ruiz Rubio

21 A. Niño Heredia

1 D. Horkaš

5 E. Clemente Maza

3 M. Marmol Medina

6 S. Barcia Laranxeira

17 V. Álvarez Rozada

16 L. Amatucci

20 K. Rodríguez Concepción

22 P. García Mejías

14 M. Fuster Lázaro

18 T. Miyashiro

10 J. Rodríguez Ruiz

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 11, 2026, 04:30 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 35 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Estadio La Rosaleda

Capacity :

30044

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Carlos Martínez Caballero

Iván Hernández Ramos

G. Rius Riu

Andrés Fuentes Molina

Statistics

Possession

MLA

46%

LPA

54%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0

4 Big Chances Created 2

5 Shots 3

48 Dangerous attacks 49

44 Possession 56

5 Corners 5

9 Free kicks 14

1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

12 Throwins 11

14 Successful Dribbles 8

4 Goal Kicks 8

56 Successful Dribbles Percentage 35

25 Dribble Attempts 23

75 Ball Safe 95

12 Goal Attempts 5

5 Substitutions 5

1 Assists 0

0 Hit Woodwork 1

Attacking

97 Attacks 105

4 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

461 Passes 594

387 Successful Passes 530

57 Long Passes 58

10 Key Passes 10

51 Successful Long Passes Percentage 64

29 Successful Long Passes 37

84 Successful Passes Percentage 89

Defensive

11 Interceptions 16

21 Tackles 16

3 Saves 3

Build-up

5 Accurate Crosses 6

11 Total Crosses 18

Discipline

15 Fouls 7

3 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Andrés Fuentes Molina

Manager ▼

J. Funes Arjona Coach

Starting XI ▼

Alfonso Herrero Goalkeeper

Carlos Puga Defender

Diego Murillo Defender

Javi Montero Defender

Rafita Garrido Defender

Juanpe Midfielder

Rafa Rodríguez

Midfielder48'

Joaquín Muñoz Midfielder

Darko Brasanac

Midfielder88'

Carlos Dotor Midfielder

Julen Lobete

Attacker88'

Aarón Ochoa Midfielder

Josué Dorrio

Attacker64'

Chupe Attacker

Adrián Niño Attacker

Ramón Enríquez

Midfielder65'

Substitutes ▼

Rafa Rodríguez

Midfielder48'

Josué Dorrio

Attacker64'

Ramón Enríquez

Midfielder65'

Darko Brasanac

Midfielder88'

Julen Lobete

Attacker88'

Bench ▼

Carlos López Goalkeeper

Jokin Gabilondo Defender

Einar Galilea Defender

Víctor García Defender

Dani Sánchez Defender

Ángel Recio Defender

Eneko Jauregi Attacker

Referee : Andrés Fuentes Molina