Málaga vs Castellón Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain

Estadio La Rosaleda Sat, 25 Apr - 7:00 PM

La Liga 2

Málaga MLA

Castellón Castellón

Full Time Sat, 25 Apr 7:00 PM

Round 37 Regular Season

Chupe - 85', 12' (P)

Álex Calatrava - 76', 68', 27'

CONTEXT

In a gripping Segunda División showdown at Estadio La Rosaleda, Castellón edged out Málaga 3-2 in a match full of end-to-end action. The first half concluded level at 1-1, with both sides sharing the spoils after early exchanges. Málaga controlled possession at 56% to Castellón's 44%, yet failed to capitalize fully. Castellón, entering as the stronger team, showcased superior finishing in the second half to clinch victory. No red cards disrupted play, allowing footballing quality to shine through. This result represents a significant structural deviation, as Castellón overcame home advantage to secure three vital points. Málaga's dominance in the ball didn't yield the win, highlighting Castellón's clinical edge and resilience under pressure.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Castellón's 3-2 win showed a significant 58.3% deviation favoring their performance.
Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match expectations.
xG alignment: xG data unavailable, so alignment cannot be assessed.
Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market positioning.
xG expectations: xG expectations unevaluable due to lack of data.
Event impact: No key events or adjustments impacted the final result.
Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion to match flow.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

No referee statistics available.

J. Funes Arjona

P. Hernández Domínguez

1.88

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.88

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

6 - 1 - 2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Málaga

31.4%

Draw

26.91%

Castellón

41.69%

Movement

Changes since opening

Málaga

+31.21%

Draw

+21.26%

Castellón

-52.47%

Team Power Ranking

31.27

33.4

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Málaga

Castellón

Power Score

31.27

33.4

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Málaga — Opponent-weighted form score

Castellón — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Málaga Castellón

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Málaga

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Castellón

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Málaga ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Castellón

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Málaga Castellón

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

1.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Málaga Castellón

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 1.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Málaga

Castellón

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Málaga

Castellón

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Málaga Castellón

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Málaga Castellón

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Málaga

Castellón

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

MLA had peak pressure around 10'.
MLA started the game with stronger pressure.

MLA Pressure Castellón Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: MLA reached the top pressure at 10' (84.15).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 9 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Málaga MLA Home

9 matches

Castellón Castellón Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

Goal Difference

-6

Data last updated: 2026-04-25T18:30:43+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2

Match Formation 4-1-4-1

1 A. Herrero Peinador

3 C. Puga Medina

16 D. Murillo Dominguez

4 E. Galilea Azaceta

31 R. Garrido Hierro

11 J. Muñoz Benavides

12 C. Dotor Gonzalez

23 I. Merino Rodríguez

35 A. Ochoa Moloney

21 A. Niño Heredia

9 C. Ruiz Rubio

13 R. Matthys

12 L. Alcázar Moreno

4 A. Sienra

3 F. Brignani

22 J. Mellot

8 D. Hernández Barriuso

16 B. Kibambe Cipenga

19 A. Jakobsen

21 A. Calatrava Torrado

18 P. Santiago López

9 O. Camara

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 25, 2026, 07:00 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 37 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Estadio La Rosaleda

Capacity :

30044

Attendance :

28601

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Carlos Muñiz Muñoz

Fernando Estela Bravo

Brais García Valín

Alexandre Alemán Pérez

Statistics

Possession

MLA

56%

Castellón

44%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 3

3 Big Chances Created 4

4 Shots 2

36 Dangerous attacks 49

56 Possession 44

1 Corners 3

22 Free kicks 12

2 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

23 Dribble Attempts 15

20 Throwins 16

57 Successful Dribbles Percentage 40

13 Successful Dribbles 6

4 Goal Kicks 6

83 Ball Safe 63

1 Penalties 0

1 Assists 3

12 Goal Attempts 10

3 Substitutions 5

Attacking

87 Attacks 71

1 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

84 Successful Passes Percentage 79

49 Successful Long Passes Percentage 30

372 Successful Passes 273

71 Long Passes 33

35 Successful Long Passes 10

445 Passes 347

7 Key Passes 10

Defensive

57 Duels Won 41

8 Interceptions 5

12 Tackles 16

4 Saves 5

Build-up

7 Total Crosses 14

3 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

12 Fouls 23

3 Offsides 4

Lineup

Referee : Carlos Muñiz Muñoz

Manager ▼

J. Funes Arjona Coach

Starting XI ▼

Alfonso Herrero Goalkeeper

6.98

Carlos Puga Defender

6.88

Einar Galilea Defender

6.84

Diego Murillo Defender

6.98

Rafita Garrido Defender

6.77

Joaquín Muñoz Midfielder

6.86

Haitam Abaida

Attacker78'

6.62

Carlos Dotor Midfielder

6.86

Izan Merino Midfielder

6.68

Aarón Ochoa Midfielder

6.78

Eneko Jauregi

Attacker79'

6.7

Chupe Attacker

7.03

Adrián Niño Attacker

6.86

Julen Lobete

Attacker70'

6.8

Substitutes ▼

Julen Lobete

Attacker70'

6.8

Haitam Abaida

Attacker78'

6.62

Eneko Jauregi

Attacker79'

6.7

Bench ▼

Carlos López Goalkeeper

Andrés Céspedes Goalkeeper

Jokin Gabilondo Defender

6.47

Víctor García Defender

6.69

Dani Sánchez Defender

6.55

Javi Montero Defender

6.72

Pablo Arriaza Defender

Ángel Recio Defender

6.47

Darko Brasanac Midfielder

6.49

Referee : Carlos Muñiz Muñoz