Málaga vs Almería Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio La Rosaleda Sun, 14 Jun - 7:00 PM
La Liga 2
Málaga MLA
0 – 0
Almería ALM
Full Time Sun, 14 Jun 7:00 PM
Final Leg 1 of 2

CONTEXT

Málaga hosted Almería in the first leg of their knockout tie, resulting in a 0-0 draw after ninety minutes of play. Both teams entered the halftime break with the score still level at 0-0. Málaga maintained a possession advantage of 59 percent to Almería's 41 percent but could not convert this into goals. The stronger team on paper, Málaga, experienced a significant deviation in their expected output during the contest. No red cards were shown to players from either side, allowing for a full complement of players throughout the match. The outcome leaves the tie finely balanced heading into the return leg. Defensive strategies played a key role in ensuring neither side breached the opposition's backline.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Málaga 0-0 Almería. Málaga showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency levels remained in line with expectations for both teams.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data was unavailable, preventing alignment analysis with the final score.
  • Market alignment: The draw result aligned with market expectations for the encounter.
  • xG expectations: No xG metrics were recorded, leaving expectations unquantified for this fixture.
  • Event impact: The absence of goals and cards shaped a low-event match with minimal disruptions.
  • Red card distortion: With no red cards issued, the game proceeded without any distortion from dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

S. Lax Franco

Spain 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 4 0.36
Fouls / match 30.4
Yellow cards / match 4
Red cards / match 0.36
Penalties / match 0.36

Other match officials

C. del Cerro Grande

1st Assistant

Spain

S. García Aguilera

2nd Assistant

Spain

E. Mallo Fernández

4th Official

Spain

League averages

La Liga 2 Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 24.71
Yellow cards / match 5.04
Red cards / match 0.26
Penalties / match 0.31
Málaga J. Funes Arjona
J. Funes Arjona
VS
Almería J. Ferrer Sicilia
J. Ferrer Sicilia
2.11
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.7
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Las Palmas Rank: 70 D
Las Palmas Rank: 71 W
Real Zaragoza Rank: 57 W
Racing Santander Rank: 72 D
Ceuta Rank: 63 W
Sporting Gijón Rank: 66 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Castellón Rank: 69 W
Castellón Rank: 69 D
Real Valladolid Rank: 60 W
Sporting Gijón Rank: 64 L
Las Palmas Rank: 70 L
Burgos Rank: 69 D
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 2 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Málaga
0%
Draw
0%
Away Almería
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
71.54
70.16
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Málaga
Almería
Power Score
71.54
70.16
League Position
4
3
Global Rank
170
201

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Málaga — Opponent-weighted form score
Almería — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Málaga Almería

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Málaga

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Almería

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Málaga ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Almería
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
23.14
27.68
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
27.68
23.14
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Málaga -0.45 Efficiency Index
vs
Almería +0.45 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Málaga
Almería
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Málaga ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Almería
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Málaga Almería
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Málaga Almería
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Málaga
Almería
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Málaga
vs
Almería
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Málaga Almería
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Málaga 0.21
Almería 0.19
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Málaga Almería
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Málaga 0.00
Almería 0.00
Málaga
Almería
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • MLA had peak pressure around 77'.
  • ALM started the game with stronger pressure.
MLA Pressure ALM Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: MLA reached the top pressure at 77' (54.58).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 4 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Málaga MLA Home
4 matches
Almería ALM Away
Match Record
1
Wins
1
2
Draws
2
1
Losses
1
Goals
7
Goals Scored
7
7
Goals Conceded
7
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-06-15T00:00:49+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-1-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
A. Herrero Peinador
Spain
1 (C) A. Herrero Peinador
C. Puga Medina
Spain
3 C. Puga Medina
D. Murillo Dominguez
Spain
16 D. Murillo Dominguez
F. Montero Rubio
Spain
20 F. Montero Rubio
R. Garrido Hierro
Spain
31 R. Garrido Hierro
D. Larrubia Romano
Substitution
Spain
10 D. Larrubia Romano
C. Dotor Gonzalez
Spain
12 C. Dotor Gonzalez
R. Rodríguez Ruiz
Substitution
Spain
37 R. Rodríguez Ruiz
A. Ochoa Moloney
Substitution
Spain
35 A. Ochoa Moloney
D. Lorenzo Guerrero
Substitution
Spain
22 D. Lorenzo Guerrero
A. Niño Heredia
Substitution
Spain
21 A. Niño Heredia
Pitch
A. Fernández Moreno
Spain
1 A. Fernández Moreno
A. Muñoz Miguel
Spain
3 A. Muñoz Miguel
F. Bonini
Italy
18 F. Bonini
R. Ely
Brazil
5 R. Ely
D. Chirino
Curaçao
22 D. Chirino
D. Lopy
Senegal
17 D. Lopy
S. Dzodic
Serbia
29 S. Dzodic
A. Embarba Blázquez
Spain
23 (C) A. Embarba Blázquez
S. Arribas Calvo
Substitution
Spain
11 S. Arribas Calvo
A. Puigmal Martínez
Substitution
Spain
2 A. Puigmal Martínez
M. De la Fuente Escudero
Substitution
Spain
24 M. De la Fuente Escudero

General Information

Date & Time :
Jun 14, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Final · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium :
Estadio La Rosaleda
Capacity :
30044
Attendance :
30083
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Salvador Lax Franco
Carlos del Cerro Grande
Samuel García Aguilera
E. Mallo Fernández

Statistics

Possession
MLA
55%
ALM
45%

Top Statistics

8 Shots 6
53 Dangerous attacks 47
59 Possession 41
4 Corners 2
11 Free kicks 12
2 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

80 Ball Safe 77
6 Goal Kicks 8
5 Goal Attempts 5
5 Substitutions 3
16 Throwins 27
1 Injuries 2
12 Dribble Attempts 33
3 Successful Dribbles 16
25 Successful Dribbles Percentage 48

Attacking

109 Attacks 77

Possession

49 Long Passes 60
517 Passes 351
435 Successful Passes 280
84 Successful Passes Percentage 80
9 Key Passes 6
23 Successful Long Passes 26
47 Successful Long Passes Percentage 43

Defensive

2 Saves 3
21 Tackles 22
12 Interceptions 8
43 Duels Won 60

Build-up

10 Total Crosses 17
1 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

3 Offsides 0
12 Fouls 11

Lineup

Referee : Salvador Lax Franco

Starting XI ▼

1
Alfonso Herrero
Alfonso Herrero (C) Goalkeeper
7.1
3
Carlos Puga
Carlos Puga Defender
6.96
16
Diego Murillo
Diego Murillo Defender
6.85
20
Javi Montero
Javi Montero Defender
6.97
31
Rafita Garrido
Rafita Garrido Defender
6.63
10
David Larrubia
David Larrubia Midfielder
6.86
24
Julen Lobete
Julen Lobete
Attacker90'
12
Carlos Dotor
Carlos Dotor Midfielder
6.74
35
Aarón Ochoa
Aarón Ochoa Midfielder
6.34
11
Joaquín Muñoz
Joaquín Muñoz
Attacker46'
6.56
37
Rafa Rodríguez
Rafa Rodríguez Midfielder
6.98
23
Izan Merino
Izan Merino
Midfielder63'
6.58
21
Adrián Niño
Adrián Niño Attacker
6.78
9
Chupe
Chupe
Attacker63'
6.46
22
Dani Lorenzo
Dani Lorenzo Attacker
7.26
6
Ramón Enríquez
Ramón Enríquez
Midfielder78'
6.68
Referee : Salvador Lax Franco

Starting XI ▼

1
Andrés Fernández
Andrés Fernández Goalkeeper
7.3
3
Álex Muñoz
Álex Muñoz Defender
6.74
5
Rodrigo Ely
Rodrigo Ely Defender
7.38
18
Federico Bonini
Federico Bonini Defender
7.23
22
Daijiro Chirino
Daijiro Chirino Defender
7.03
2
Arnau Puigmal
Arnau Puigmal Midfielder
6.32
10
Nico Melamed
Nico Melamed
Midfielder56'
6.69
11
Sergio Arribas
Sergio Arribas Midfielder
6.75
7
Jon Morcillo
Jon Morcillo
Attacker83'
6.64
17
Dion Lopy
Dion Lopy Midfielder
7.43
23
Adrián Embarba
Adrián Embarba (C) Midfielder
7.14
29
Stefan Dzodic
Stefan Dzodic Midfielder
6.99
24
Miguel de la Fuente
Miguel de la Fuente Attacker
6.81
12
Léo Baptistão
Léo Baptistão
Attacker68'
6.56

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Julen Lobete → David Larrubia
8th Substitution
90'
Event
Izan Merino
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
90'
83'
Event
Jon Morcillo → Sergio Arribas
7th Substitution
Event
Ramón Enríquez → Dani Lorenzo
6th Substitution
78'
68'
Event
Léo Baptistão → Miguel de la Fuente
5th Substitution
Event
Chupe → Adrián Niño
3rd Substitution
63'
Event
Izan Merino → Rafa Rodríguez
4th Substitution
63'
56'
Event
Nico Melamed → Arnau Puigmal
2nd Substitution
Event
Joaquín Muñoz → Aarón Ochoa
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Rafita Garrido
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
11'

Match Commentary

90
Substitution Substitution
On Julen Lobete Cienfuegos, David Larrubia is substituted off.
90
Update Update
Offside.
90
Update Update
Offside.
85
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Izan Merino.
84
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Embarba takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
83
Attempt Attempt
Nicolas Melamed Ribaudo takes a left-footed shot but misses.
80
Update Update
On comes Jon Morcillo, off goes Sergio Arribas Calvo.
78
Attempt Attempt
Shot from Joaquin Munoz Benavides with his right foot is blocked.
73
Update Update
On Ramon Enriquez Rodriguez, off Daniel Lorenzo Guerrero.
71
Attempt Attempt
David Larrubia takes a left-footed shot, but it misses the target.
70
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Leonardo Carrilho Baptistao with his right foot, but it misses the target.
68
Update Update
Offside.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Leonardo Carrilho Baptistao comes on for Miguel De la Fuente.
63
Update Update
Izan Merino comes on for Rafa Rodriguez.
63
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Joaquin Munoz Benavides with his right foot, but it's saved.
56
Update Update
On comes Chupete, off goes Adrian Nino.
55
Update Update
Nicolas Melamed Ribaudo is on, and Arnau Puigmal is off.
51
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Lorenzo Guerrero takes a right-footed shot but misses.
51
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
49
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
46
Attempt Attempt
Carlos Dotor takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
46
Attempt Attempt
Stefan Džodić attempts a header but misses the shot.
45
Attempt Attempt
Rafa Rodriguez takes a right-footed shot but misses.
45
Update Update
Joaquin Munoz Benavides comes on for Aaron Ochoa.
44
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
35
Corner Corner
Corner.
32
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Carlos Dotor receives a yellow card.
32
Attempt Attempt
Rafa Rodriguez takes a right-footed shot but misses.
30
Update Update
Offside.
30
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Lorenzo Guerrero takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
25
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
24
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Nino takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
22
Attempt Attempt
Dion Lopy takes a right-footed shot but misses.
12
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Nino takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
8
Attempt Attempt
Miguel De la Fuente attempts a header but misses the shot.
8
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Rafita.
8
Attempt Attempt
Stefan Džodić takes a right-footed shot but misses.
6
Attempt Attempt
Shot from Arnau Puigmal with his right foot is blocked.
4
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Attempt Attempt
Carlos Dotor's left-footed shot is blocked.
1
Corner Corner
Corner.

CONCLUSION

The 0-0 draw between Málaga and Almería in the opening leg of their tie underscores a cautious approach from both sides. Despite Málaga's superior possession, clear-cut chances were scarce, leading to a stalemate that keeps the aggregate wide open. The lack of red cards ensured a complete tactical battle without numerical disadvantages. This result, while not ideal for the home side, provides Almería with a solid platform for the second leg. Overall, the match highlighted defensive resilience over attacking flair, setting the stage for an interesting conclusion to the tie in the return fixture.

Málaga vs Almería preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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Daniels Zorge

Daniels Zorge covers football fixtures with a focus on tactical matchups, playing styles, and key details that shape each game.