Luzern vs Zürich Prediction, Preview and Stats

Switzerland flag 2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland
swissporarena Tue, 12 May - 6:30 PM
Super League
Luzern LUZ
1 Winner 0
Zürich ZUR
Full Time Tue, 12 May 6:30 PM
Round 37 Relegation Round
Oscar Kabwit - 70'
Goal
|
Bung Meng Freimann 77' Red Card
|

CONTEXT

Luzern clinched a gritty 1-0 victory over Zürich in the Swiss Super League, showcasing resilience despite a second-half red card. The halftime score stood at 0-0, with Luzern enjoying a slight 51% possession edge over Zürich's 49%. As the stronger team, Luzern absorbed the numerical disadvantage and protected their lead after scoring the decisive goal. This result marked a significant 35.9% structural deviation in Luzern's favor, highlighting their ability to outperform expectations. Pre-match market probabilities had Luzern at 64.1%, aligning closely with the outcome. Efficiency metrics remained in line with norms, though xG data was unavailable for deeper analysis. The red card introduced notable distortion, particularly influencing second-half adjustments and dynamics. Luzern's defensive organization proved pivotal in securing the three points against a probing Zürich side.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Luzern's 1-0 win featured a significant 35.9% structural deviation.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiencies shifted in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment assessment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Result aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without available data.
  • Event impact: Home red card created substantial event impact on proceedings.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion shaped second-half adjustments.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

D. Grundbacher

Switzerland 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

N. Lötscher

1st Assistant

Switzerland

M. Bürgi

2nd Assistant

Switzerland

M. Turkes

4th Official

Switzerland

League averages

Super League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 21.11
Yellow cards / match 3.91
Red cards / match 0.18
Penalties / match 0.42
Luzern M. Frick
M. Frick
VS
Zürich C. Bernegger
C. Bernegger
1.3
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.96
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Servette Rank: 63 D
Lausanne Sport Rank: 57 W
Grasshopper Rank: 49 W
St. Gallen Rank: 65 D
Servette Rank: 64 L
Lausanne Sport Rank: 55 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Grasshopper Rank: 49 W
Winterthur Rank: 44 D
Lausanne Sport Rank: 56 L
Lugano Rank: 65 L
St. Gallen Rank: 65 L
Thun Rank: 64 W
26
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
26 - 20 - 26
26

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Luzern
64.08%
Draw
19.59%
Away Zürich
16.33%

Movement

Changes since opening
Luzern
-31.15%
Draw
+15.01%
Zürich
+16.14%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
60.56
50.78
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Luzern
Zürich
Power Score
60.56
50.78
League Position
7
10
Global Rank
479
778

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Luzern — Opponent-weighted form score
Zürich — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Luzern Zürich

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Luzern

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Zürich

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Luzern ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Zürich
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.37
38.27
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
38.27
31.37
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Luzern -0.62 Efficiency Index
vs
Zürich +0.62 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Luzern
Zürich
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Luzern ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Zürich
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Luzern Zürich
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Luzern Zürich
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Luzern
Zürich
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Luzern
vs
Zürich
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Luzern Zürich
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Luzern 0.22
Zürich 0.29
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Luzern Zürich
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Luzern 0.00
Zürich 0.02
Luzern
Zürich
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ZUR had peak pressure around 30'.
  • LUZ started the game with stronger pressure.
LUZ Pressure ZUR Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ZUR reached the top pressure at 30' (89.51).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 72 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Luzern LUZ Home
72 matches
Zürich ZUR Away
Match Record
26
Wins
26
20
Draws
20
26
Losses
26
Goals
97
Goals Scored
107
107
Goals Conceded
97
-10
Goal Difference
+10

Data last updated: 2026-05-13T00:02:17+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-2-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
P. Loretz
Switzerland
1 P. Loretz
P. Dorn
Germany
20 P. Dorn
B. Freimann
46 B. Freimann
A. Bajrami
Albania
4 A. Bajrami
R. Fernandes
Substitution
Switzerland
22 R. Fernandes
T. Owusu
Switzerland
24 T. Owusu
L. Winkler
Substitution
29 L. Winkler
L. Silva Ferreira
Substitution
Portugal
73 L. Silva Ferreira
M. Di Giusto
Switzerland
11 M. Di Giusto
O. Kabwit tshikomb
Substitution
DR Congo
16 O. Kabwit tshikomb
A. Vasovic
Substitution
Switzerland
19 A. Vasovic
Pitch
S. Huber
Switzerland
1 S. Huber
I. Sauter
Substitution
Switzerland
27 I. Sauter
A. Hack
Germany
42 A. Hack
L. Kamberi
Switzerland
2 L. Kamberi
S. Hodža
Switzerland
32 S. Hodža
N. Palacio
Colombia
15 N. Palacio
M. Reichmuth
Substitution
Switzerland
38 M. Reichmuth
I. Neves Abreu Cavaleiro
Substitution
Angola
8 I. Neves Abreu Cavaleiro
B. Krasniqi
Substitution
Switzerland
7 B. Krasniqi
J. Perea Mendoza
Colombia
9 J. Perea Mendoza
P. Keny
Substitution
Senegal
19 P. Keny

General Information

Date & Time :
May 12, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland · Round 37 · Relegation Round
Stadium :
swissporarena
Capacity :
16800
Attendance :
12190
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Désirée Grundbacher
Noël Lötscher
Mirco Bürgi
Mirel Turkes

Statistics

Possession
LUZ
51%
ZUR
49%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
5 Big Chances Created 3
3 Shots 3
60 Dangerous attacks 55
51 Possession 49
10 Corners 5
9 Free kicks 14
2 Yellow Cards 0
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

18 Throwins 20
56 Successful Dribbles Percentage 38
5 Successful Dribbles 6
9 Dribble Attempts 16
10 Goal Kicks 11
68 Ball Safe 64
8 Goal Attempts 9
2 Hit Woodwork 1
1 Injuries 1
5 Substitutions 5
1 Assists 0

Attacking

82 Attacks 89
4 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

11 Key Passes 11
80 Successful Passes Percentage 81
375 Passes 352
300 Successful Passes 285
20 Successful Long Passes 33
48 Long Passes 59
42 Successful Long Passes Percentage 56

Defensive

10 Interceptions 3
3 Saves 3
24 Tackles 11

Build-up

23 Total Crosses 23
5 Accurate Crosses 10

Discipline

14 Fouls 9
3 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Désirée Grundbacher

Starting XI ▼

1
Pascal Loretz
Pascal Loretz Goalkeeper
4
Adrian Bajrami
Adrian Bajrami Defender
20
Pius Dorn
Pius Dorn Defender
22
Rúben Dantas Fernandes
Rúben Dantas Fernandes Defender
14
Andrejs Ciganiks
Andrejs Ciganiks
Defender72'
46
Bung Meng Freimann
Bung Meng Freimann Defender
11
Matteo Di Giusto
Matteo Di Giusto Midfielder
24
Tyron Owusu
Tyron Owusu Midfielder
29
Levin Winkler
Levin Winkler Midfielder
6
Taisei Abe
Taisei Abe
Midfielder73'
73
Lucas Manuel Silva Ferreira
Lucas Manuel Silva Ferreira Midfielder
7
Kevin Spadanuda
Kevin Spadanuda
Midfielder64'
16
Oscar Kabwit
Oscar Kabwit Attacker
5
Stefan Knezevic
Stefan Knezevic
Defender79'
19
Andrej Vasovic
Andrej Vasovic Attacker
27
Lars Villiger
Lars Villiger
Attacker79'
Referee : Désirée Grundbacher

Starting XI ▼

1
Silas Huber
Silas Huber Goalkeeper
2
Lindrit Kamberi
Lindrit Kamberi Defender
27
Ilan Sauter
Ilan Sauter Defender
49
Din Ramic
Din Ramic
Attacker80'
32
Selmin Hodza
Selmin Hodza Defender
42
Alexander Hack
Alexander Hack Defender
7
Bledian Krasniqi
Bledian Krasniqi Midfielder
14
Nevio Di Giusto
Nevio Di Giusto
Midfielder59'
8
Ivan Cavaleiro
Ivan Cavaleiro Midfielder
44
Sebastian Walker
Sebastian Walker
Defender59'
9
Juan José Perea
Juan José Perea Midfielder
15
Nelson Palacio
Nelson Palacio Midfielder
38
Miguel Reichmuth
Miguel Reichmuth Midfielder
23
Valon Berisha
Valon Berisha
Midfielder80'
19
Philippe Paulin Keny
Philippe Paulin Keny Attacker
11
Umeh Emmanuel
Umeh Emmanuel
Attacker59'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Stefan Knezevic
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
80'
80'
Event
Din Ramic → Ilan Sauter
10th Substitution
80'
Event
Valon Berisha → Miguel Reichmuth
9th Substitution
Event
Stefan Knezevic → Oscar Kabwit
7th Substitution
79'
Event
Lars Villiger → Andrej Vasovic
8th Substitution
79'
Event
Bung Meng Freimann
Foul / 1st Redcard
77'
Event
Bung Meng Freimann
Card adjusted
77'
Event
Taisei Abe → Levin Winkler
6th Substitution
73'
Event
Andrejs Ciganiks → Rúben Dantas Fernandes
5th Substitution
72'
Event
Oscar Kabwit
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
70'
Event
Kevin Spadanuda → Lucas Manuel Silva Ferreira
4th Substitution
64'
59'
Event
Umeh Emmanuel → Philippe Paulin Keny
1st Substitution
59'
Event
Sebastian Walker → Ivan Cavaleiro
3rd Substitution
59'
Event
Nevio Di Giusto → Bledian Krasniqi
2nd Substitution
Event
Pius Dorn
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
56'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Nevio Di Giusto's right-footed shot is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Spadanuda takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Matteo Di Giusto takes a right-footed shot but misses.
83
Attempt Attempt
Juan Jose Perea Mendoza attempts a header but misses the shot.
83
Attempt Attempt
Juan Jose Perea Mendoza attempted a header but missed the shot.
83
Attempt Attempt
Juan Jose Perea Mendoza attempts a header but misses the shot.
81
Attempt Attempt
Nevio Di Giusto takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
81
Update Update
Lindrit Kamberi's header attempt goes wide.
80
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Stefan Knezevic receives a yellow card.
80
Update Update
Valon Berisha comes on for Miguel Reichmuth.
80
Update Update
Din Ramic replaces Ilan Sauter.
79
Attempt Attempt
Lindrit Kamberi takes a right-footed shot but misses.
78
Update Update
Lars Villiger replaces Andrej Vasovic.
78
Update Update
Stefan Knezevic comes on for Oscar Tshikomb.
76
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Bung Meng Freimann.
76
Red Card Red Card Important
Red card shown to Bung Meng Freimann.
72
Substitution Substitution
Andrejs Ciganiks is substituted for Ruben Dantas.
72
Update Update
Taisei Abe is on, and Levin Winkler is off.
70
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Oscar Tshikomb with his left foot results in a goal.
68
Attempt Attempt
Juan Jose Perea Mendoza takes a right-footed shot but misses.
65
Attempt Attempt
Juan Jose Perea Mendoza takes a right-footed shot but misses.
64
Substitution Substitution
Kevin Spadanuda is substituted for Lucas Manuel Silva Ferreira.
59
Update Update
Umeh Emmanuel comes on for Philippe Paulin Keny.
59
Update Update
Sebastian Walker is on, and Ivan Ricardo Neves Abreu Cavaleiro is off.
59
Update Update
Nevio Di Giusto is on, and Bledian Krasniqi is off.
56
Attempt Attempt
Levin Winkler takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
56
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Pius Dorn receives a yellow card.
52
Attempt Attempt
Andrej Vasovic takes a shot with his right foot, but it hits the post.
48
Attempt Attempt
Andrej Vasovic takes a left-footed shot but misses.
40
Attempt Attempt
Oscar Tshikomb takes a left-footed shot but misses.
37
Attempt Attempt
Andrej Vasovic takes a left-footed shot that hits the post.
37
Attempt Attempt
Matteo Di Giusto takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
36
Attempt Attempt
Matteo Di Giusto takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
35
Attempt Attempt
Ruben Dantas takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
33
Attempt Attempt
Lindrit Kamberi attempts a header but misses the shot.
29
Attempt Attempt
Alexander Hack takes a header shot but misses.
29
Attempt Attempt
Alexander Hack attempts a header but misses the shot.
18
Attempt Attempt
Matteo Di Giusto takes a right-footed shot, but it misses the target.
18
Attempt Attempt
Philippe Paulin Keny takes a right-footed shot but misses.
18
Attempt Attempt
Juan Jose Perea Mendoza takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
10
Attempt Attempt
Juan Jose Perea Mendoza takes a right-footed shot but misses.
4
Attempt Attempt
Pius Dorn takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Desiree Grundbacher.

CONCLUSION

Luzern's narrow 1-0 triumph over Zürich exemplified their mettle, especially after playing with 10 men following the red card. Holding 51% possession and staying level at halftime demonstrated control, while the win affirmed their stronger standing. This significant structural deviation of 35.9% underscores Luzern's edge beyond raw stats. Market alignment validated the pre-match favoritism, with efficiencies holding steady. The red card's distortion tested but ultimately highlighted Luzern's tactical nous and depth. Zürich's failure to exploit the advantage exposes their finishing woes. Moving forward, Luzern builds momentum, poised for continued success in the league.

Luzern vs Zürich preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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