Lugano vs Thun Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland

Stadio di Cornaredo Sat, 4 Apr - 4:00 PM

Super League

Lugano Lugano

Thun THU

Full Time Sat, 4 Apr 4:00 PM

Round 32 Regular Season

Daniel Dos Santos - 59'

CONTEXT

The match between Lugano and Thun has finished, with Lugano securing a narrow 1-0 victory. Following a tightly contested first half where the teams remained deadlocked at 0-0, the home side ultimately found the decisive breakthrough in the second period to claim the win. Pre-match market expectations suggested a highly competitive and evenly matched affair, giving both Lugano and Thun an identical 37% probability of winning, alongside a 26% chance of a draw. Despite this perfectly split forecast, the final result represented a significant deviation of 63% in favor of Lugano. Ultimately, the outcome remained aligned with the pre-match market as the stronger team managed to secure the result on their home turf. Lugano controlled the general flow of the game with 57% possession, restricting Thun to 43% of the ball. Expected goals (xG) data was not available for this fixture, leaving it undetermined if the 1-0 scoreline strictly aligned with underlying chance creation. However, both teams' overall efficiency shifted in line with standard expectations. Finally, the match concluded without any red cards, ensuring no major disciplinary events impacted the final outcome.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Lugano showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
Event impact: No major event distortion.
Red card distortion: None.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

J. Mandach

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

S. Küng

1st Assistant

N. Tuberosa

2nd Assistant

M. Turkes

4th Official

M. Croci-Torti

M. Lustrinelli

1.83

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

2.42

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

7 - 7 - 8

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Lugano

37.02%

Draw

25.96%

Thun

37.02%

Team Power Ranking

63.33

55.93

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Lugano

Thun

Power Score

63.33

55.93

League Position

Global Rank

364

319

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Lugano — Opponent-weighted form score

Thun — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Lugano Thun

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Lugano

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Thun

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Lugano ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Thun

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

29.21

35.81

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

35.81

29.21

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Lugano -0.59 Efficiency Index

Thun +0.59 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Lugano

Thun

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Lugano ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Thun

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Lugano Thun

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Lugano Thun

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Lugano

Thun

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Lugano

Thun

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Lugano Thun

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Lugano Thun

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Lugano

Thun

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 22 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Lugano Lugano Home

22 matches

Thun THU Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

Goal Difference

-1

Data last updated: 2026-04-05T00:05:15+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1

Match Formation 4-2-2-2

1 A. Saipi

6 A. Papadopoulos

17 L. Mai

3 H. Delcroix

46 M. Zanotti

25 U. Bislimi

8 A. Grgic

21 Y. Cimignani

11 R. Steffen

27 D. dos Santos Correia

9 G. Koutsias

24 N. Steffen

27 M. Heule

19 J. Bamert

4 G. Montolio Lafuente

47 F. Fehr

14 M. Käit

6 L. Bertone

7 K. Imeri

77 F. Meichtry

74 E. Rastoder

96 B. Labeau Melchior

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 04, 2026, 04:00 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland · Round 32 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Stadio di Cornaredo

Capacity :

6390

Attendance :

4638

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Susann Küng

N. Tuberosa

Mirel Turkes

Johannes von Mandach

Statistics

Possession

Lugano

55%

THU

45%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0

1 Big Chances Created 3

4 Shots 6

33 Dangerous attacks 48

57 Possession 43

3 Corners 5

15 Free kicks 9

2 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

1 Hit Woodwork 2

1 Assists 0

0 Injuries 1

23 Throwins 21

5 Substitutions 6

6 Successful Dribbles 6

55 Successful Dribbles Percentage 43

103 Ball Safe 84

13 Goal Attempts 13

11 Goal Kicks 7

11 Dribble Attempts 14

Attacking

66 Attacks 109

1 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

12 Key Passes 8

446 Passes 317

79 Successful Passes Percentage 73

351 Successful Passes 231

53 Successful Long Passes Percentage 44

68 Long Passes 55

36 Successful Long Passes 24

Defensive

6 Saves 3

14 Tackles 8

12 Interceptions 11

47 Duels Won 38

Build-up

1 Accurate Crosses 3

8 Total Crosses 19

Discipline

2 Offsides 0

9 Fouls 15

Lineup

Referee : Johannes von Mandach

Manager ▼

M. Croci-Torti Coach

Starting XI ▼

Amir Saipi Goalkeeper

Hannes Delcroix Defender

Antonios Papadopoulos Defender

Lukas Mai Defender

Anto Grgic Midfielder

Yanis Cimignani Midfielder

Martim Marques

Defender71'

Uran Bislimi Midfielder

Mattia Zanotti Midfielder

Pablo Acebal

Defender84'

Georgios Koutsias Attacker

Elias Pihlström

Attacker90'

Renato Steffen Attacker

Mohamed Belhadj Mahmoud

Midfielder84'

Daniel Dos Santos Attacker

Mattia Bottani

Attacker84'

Substitutes ▼

Martim Marques

Defender71'

Pablo Acebal

Defender84'

Mattia Bottani

Attacker84'

Mohamed Belhadj Mahmoud

Midfielder84'

Elias Pihlström

Attacker90'

Bench ▼

Diego Mina Goalkeeper

Damian Kelvin Defender

Ahmed Kendouci Midfielder

Hicham Mahou Midfielder

Referee : Johannes von Mandach