Lugano vs St. Gallen Prediction, Preview and Stats

Switzerland flag 2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland
Stadio di Cornaredo Sun, 10 May - 12:00 PM
Super League
Lugano Lugano
1 Winner 2
St. Gallen St. Gallen
Full Time Sun, 10 May 12:00 PM
Round 36 Championship Round
Mohamed Belhadj Mahmoud - 53'
Goal
|
Goal
Lukas Görtler - 74' (P)
Mihailo Stevanovic - 69'

CONTEXT

Lugano hosted St. Gallen in a Swiss Super League encounter, suffering a 1-2 defeat despite being the stronger team and controlling 58% possession. The first half ended 0-0, with neither side breaking the deadlock. St. Gallen struck twice in the second half to overturn Lugano's dominance, showcasing superior finishing efficiency. Lugano created more opportunities but failed to convert, allowing the visitors to capitalize on counters. This outcome marked a significant structural deviation of 68.3% in St. Gallen's favor, diverging sharply from pre-match expectations where Lugano held the edge. No red cards disrupted play, and team efficiencies aligned with norms. Absent xG data limits deeper chance quality analysis, but possession stats underline Lugano's territorial control without end product.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: St. Gallen recorded a significant 68.3% structural deviation by defeating pre-match stronger team Lugano.
  • Efficiency shift: Both teams' efficiencies remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment cannot be assessed due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment failed as St. Gallen's win opposed pre-match favoritism toward Lugano.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unmeasurable without underlying data.
  • Event impact: No notable second-half adjustments or events altered the match flow.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion from player dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Dudic

Switzerland 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

N. Müller

1st Assistant

Switzerland

D. Känel

2nd Assistant

Switzerland

M. Odiet

4th Official

Switzerland

League averages

Super League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 19.91
Yellow cards / match 3.69
Red cards / match 0.17
Penalties / match 0.4
Lugano M. Croci-Torti
M. Croci-Torti
VS
St. Gallen E. Maaßen
E. Maaßen
1.91
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.83
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Young Boys Rank: 62 W
Thun Rank: 66 W
Zürich Rank: 51 W
Thun Rank: 63 W
Young Boys Rank: 63 D
St. Gallen Rank: 65 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sion Rank: 62 L
Young Boys Rank: 62 W
Luzern Rank: 60 D
Zürich Rank: 51 W
Sion Rank: 65 D
Lugano Rank: 65 D
18
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
18 - 10 - 14
14

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Lugano
43.01%
Draw
25.28%
Away St. Gallen
31.71%

Movement

Changes since opening
Lugano
+42.82%
Draw
+19.63%
St. Gallen
-62.45%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
65
64.66
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Lugano
St. Gallen
Power Score
65
64.66
League Position
3
2
Global Rank
335
343

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Lugano — Opponent-weighted form score
St. Gallen — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Lugano St. Gallen

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Lugano

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

St. Gallen

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Lugano ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy St. Gallen
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
21.21
50.36
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
50.36
21.21
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Lugano -2.61 Efficiency Index
vs
St. Gallen +2.61 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Lugano
St. Gallen
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Lugano ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy St. Gallen
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Lugano St. Gallen
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Lugano St. Gallen
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Lugano
St. Gallen
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Lugano
vs
St. Gallen
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Lugano St. Gallen
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Lugano 0.42
St. Gallen 0.44
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Lugano St. Gallen
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Lugano 0.05
St. Gallen 0.04
Lugano
St. Gallen
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • St. Gallen had peak pressure around 79'.
  • St. Gallen started the game with stronger pressure.
Lugano Pressure St. Gallen Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: St. Gallen reached the top pressure at 79' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 42 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Lugano Lugano Home
42 matches
St. Gallen St. Gallen Away
Match Record
18
Wins
14
10
Draws
10
14
Losses
18
Goals
62
Goals Scored
57
57
Goals Conceded
62
+5
Goal Difference
-5

Data last updated: 2026-05-11T00:02:53+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
D. von Ballmoos
Switzerland
16 D. von Ballmoos
A. Papadopoulos
Germany
6 A. Papadopoulos
L. Mai
Substitution
Germany
17 L. Mai
H. Delcroix
Belgium
3 H. Delcroix
M. Zanotti
Italy
46 M. Zanotti
U. Bislimi
Switzerland
25 U. Bislimi
A. Grgic
Substitution
Switzerland
8 A. Grgic
Y. Cimignani
Substitution
France
21 Y. Cimignani
M. Belhaj Mahmoud
Substitution
Tunisia
29 M. Belhaj Mahmoud
R. Steffen
Switzerland
11 R. Steffen
K. Behrens
Substitution
Germany
91 K. Behrens
Pitch
L. Ati-Zigi
Ghana
1 L. Ati-Zigi
C. Okoroji
Germany
36 C. Okoroji
J. Stanic
Substitution
Croatia
4 J. Stanic
C. Kleine-Bekel
Germany
3 C. Kleine-Bekel
N. Weibel
Substitution
Switzerland
66 N. Weibel
C. Boukhalfa
Germany
11 C. Boukhalfa
L. Daschner
Substitution
Germany
10 L. Daschner
L. Görtler
Germany
16 L. Görtler
H. Vandermersch
France
28 H. Vandermersch
A. Balde
Substitution
Senegal
14 A. Balde
A. Vogt
Substitution
Switzerland
18 A. Vogt

General Information

Date & Time :
May 10, 2026, 12:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland · Round 36 · Championship Round
Stadium :
Stadio di Cornaredo
Capacity :
6390
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Nicolas Müller
Alessandro Dudic
Daniel Von Känel
Maxime Odiet

Statistics

Possession
Lugano
54%
St. Gallen
46%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
4 Big Chances Created 3
6 Shots 9
26 Dangerous attacks 43
58 Possession 42
2 Corners 6
14 Free kicks 9
3 Yellow Cards 5

Match Overview

0 Injuries 3
9 Goal Kicks 4
26 Throwins 31
9 Goal Attempts 15
91 Ball Safe 76
3 Successful Dribbles 4
11 Dribble Attempts 10
27 Successful Dribbles Percentage 40
5 Substitutions 5
1 Hit Woodwork 0
1 Assists 0
1 Penalties 1

Attacking

82 Attacks 101
4 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

407 Passes 285
77 Successful Passes Percentage 73
43 Successful Long Passes Percentage 42
313 Successful Passes 207
6 Key Passes 10
28 Successful Long Passes 23
65 Long Passes 55

Defensive

7 Saves 4
13 Tackles 16
10 Interceptions 9

Build-up

12 Total Crosses 17
3 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

10 Fouls 15
2 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Alessandro Dudic

Starting XI ▼

16
David von Ballmoos
David von Ballmoos Goalkeeper
3
Hannes Delcroix
Hannes Delcroix Defender
6
Antonios Papadopoulos
Antonios Papadopoulos Defender
17
Lukas Mai
Lukas Mai Defender
10
Mattia Bottani
Mattia Bottani
Attacker78'
8
Anto Grgic
Anto Grgic Midfielder
24
Elias Pihlström
Elias Pihlström
Attacker86'
21
Yanis Cimignani
Yanis Cimignani Midfielder
7
Pablo Acebal
Pablo Acebal
Defender69'
25
Uran Bislimi
Uran Bislimi Midfielder
46
Mattia Zanotti
Mattia Zanotti Midfielder
11
Renato Steffen
Renato Steffen Attacker
29
Mohamed Belhadj Mahmoud
Mohamed Belhadj Mahmoud Attacker
18
Hicham Mahou
Hicham Mahou
Midfielder78'
91
Kevin Behrens
Kevin Behrens Attacker
9
Georgios Koutsias
Georgios Koutsias
Attacker69'
Referee : Alessandro Dudic

Starting XI ▼

1
Lawrence Ati Zigi
Lawrence Ati Zigi Goalkeeper
3
Colin Kleine-Bekel
Colin Kleine-Bekel Defender
4
Jozo Stanic
Jozo Stanic Defender
74
Joel Ruiz
Joel Ruiz
Defender46'
36
Chima Okoroji
Chima Okoroji Defender
10
Lukas Daschner
Lukas Daschner Midfielder
23
Betim Fazliji
Betim Fazliji
Midfielder90+9'
11
Carlo Boukhalfa
Carlo Boukhalfa Midfielder
16
Lukas Görtler
Lukas Görtler Midfielder
28
Hugo Vandermersch
Hugo Vandermersch Midfielder
66
Nino Weibel
Nino Weibel Midfielder
69
Diego Besio
Diego Besio
Attacker32'
14
Aliou Baldé
Aliou Baldé Attacker
70
Nevio Scherrer
Nevio Scherrer
Attacker84'
18
Alessandro Vogt
Alessandro Vogt Attacker
64
Mihailo Stevanovic
Mihailo Stevanovic
Midfielder46'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+9'
Event
Betim Fazliji → Lukas Daschner
10th Substitution
Event
Pablo Acebal
GoalkeeperSave
90+8'
90+6'
Event
9th Yellowcard
90+6'
Event
Lukas Daschner
Argument / 8th Yellowcard
90+6'
Event
Enrico Maassen
Argument / 10th Yellowcard
Event
Renato Steffen
Penalty awarded
90+5'
Event
Hicham Mahou
Argument / 7th Yellowcard
90+3'
90+3'
Event
Diego Besio
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
Event
Elias Pihlström → Anto Grgic
9th Substitution
86'
84'
Event
Nevio Scherrer → Aliou Baldé
8th Substitution
Event
Mattia Bottani → Lukas Mai
6th Substitution
78'
Event
Hicham Mahou → Mohamed Belhadj Mahmoud
7th Substitution
78'
77'
Event
Carlo Boukhalfa
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
74'
Event
Lukas Görtler
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
Event
Hannes Delcroix
Persistent fouling / 4th Yellowcard
73'
72'
Event
Lukas Daschner
Penalty awarded
Event
Georgios Koutsias → Kevin Behrens
5th Substitution
69'
Event
Pablo Acebal → Yanis Cimignani
4th Substitution
69'
69'
Event
Mihailo Stevanovic
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
66'
Event
Hugo Vandermersch
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Mohamed Belhadj Mahmoud
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
53'
Event
Renato Steffen
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
52'
46'
Event
Mihailo Stevanovic → Alessandro Vogt
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Joel Ruiz → Jozo Stanic
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
32'
Event
Diego Besio → Nino Weibel
1st Substitution
31'
Event
Nino Weibel
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
VAR decision confirms a penalty awarded to Renato Steffen.
90
Attempt Attempt
Ezgjan Alioski takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
86
Attempt Attempt
Carlo Boukhalfa takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
86
Update Update
Elias Pihlstrom replaces Anto Grgic.
85
Attempt Attempt
Diego Besio takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
84
Update Update
Nevio Scherrer is on, and Aliou Balde is off.
78
Update Update
Hicham Mahou is on, and Hadj Mahmoud is off.
78
Update Update
Mattia Bottani replaces Lars Lukas Mai.
77
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Carlo Boukhalfa receives a yellow card.
74
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Lukas Gortler scores, making it 1-2.
74
Attempt Attempt
Lukas Gortler takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
72
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Hannes Delcroix receives a yellow card.
71
Attempt Attempt
Diego Besio takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
69
Attempt Attempt
Lukas Gortler's right-footed shot is saved.
69
Attempt Attempt
Mihailo Stevanovic takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
69
Update Update
Georgios Koutsias comes on for Kevin Behrens.
69
Update Update
Ezgjan Alioski is on, and Yanis Cimignani is off.
66
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Hugo Vandermersch receives a yellow card.
62
Attempt Attempt
Hannes Delcroix takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
58
Attempt Attempt
Lukas Daschner takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
58
Attempt Attempt
Lukas Daschner takes a right-footed shot but misses.
54
Attempt Attempt
Hadj Mahmoud scores with a right-footed shot.
52
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Renato Steffen receives a yellow card.
51
Attempt Attempt
Aliou Balde's right-footed shot is saved.
50
Attempt Attempt
Mihailo Stevanovic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
46
Update Update
Mihailo Stevanovic comes on for Alessandro Vogt.
46
Update Update
Joel Ruiz comes on for Jozo Stanic.
43
Attempt Attempt
Hadj Mahmoud's right-footed shot is saved.
43
Attempt Attempt
Hadj Mahmoud takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
43
Attempt Attempt
Hadj Mahmoud's right-footed shot is saved.
42
Attempt Attempt
Antonios Papadopoulos takes a left-footed shot but misses.
42
Attempt Attempt
Antonios Papadopoulos takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
39
Attempt Attempt
Alessandro Vogt's right-footed shot is blocked.
39
Attempt Attempt
Alessandro Vogt attempts a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
36
Attempt Attempt
Mattia Zanotti's left-footed shot is blocked.
35
Attempt Attempt
Renato Steffen's left-footed shot is saved.
32
Update Update
Diego Besio replaces Nino Weibel.
25
Attempt Attempt
Hugo Vandermersch takes a left-footed shot but misses.
24
Attempt Attempt
Hadj Mahmoud's left-footed shot is saved.
22
Attempt Attempt
Lukas Daschner takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
17
Attempt Attempt
Aliou Balde takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
13
Attempt Attempt
Chima Chima Okoroji takes a left-footed shot but misses.
5
Attempt Attempt
Lukas Daschner takes a right-footed shot but misses.
4
Attempt Attempt
Carlo Boukhalfa attempts a header but misses the shot.
2
Attempt Attempt
Jozo Stanic's header is saved.

CONCLUSION

St. Gallen's 2-1 victory over Lugano defied the home team's strength and 58% possession advantage, with all goals scored post-halftime in a tactical second-half turnaround. This result highlights clinical conversion trumping sustained pressure, as Lugano's opportunities went unconverted. Significant structural deviation underscores the upset's scale, while market misalignment reflects the improbable away success. Lacking xG insights or red card influences, the outcome pivots on execution and resilience, offering lessons in counter-attacking efficacy against dominant foes.

Lugano vs St. Gallen preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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