Lugano vs Sion Prediction, Preview and Stats

Switzerland flag 2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland
Stadio di Cornaredo Fri, 6 Mar - 2:09 PM
Super League
Lugano Lugano
2 Winner 1
Sion SIO
Full Time Fri, 6 Mar 2:09 PM
Kevin Behrens - 62'
Renato Steffen - 12'
Goal
|
Goal
Ali Kabacalman - 10' (P)

CONTEXT

The match between Lugano and Sion has finished, with Lugano securing a 2-1 victory over the visitors. The teams were evenly matched at 1-1 at half-time, but Lugano ultimately managed to pull ahead in the second half to claim the win. Heading into the fixture, the pre-match market correctly favored Lugano with a 44.5% win probability, compared to a 27.9% chance for a draw and 27.5% for a Sion victory. Because the stronger home team took all three points, the final result was fully aligned with pre-match market expectations. Despite this alignment, Lugano's victory still represented a significant deviation level of 55.5% when evaluated against the overall market spread. On the pitch, Lugano dictated the pace, holding a slight advantage with 54% possession compared to Sion's 46%. While expected goals (xG) data was unavailable to assess chance-creation alignment, the overall efficiency shift was completely in line with standard expectations. Additionally, the match flowed cleanly without any major disciplinary disruptions, as neither side received a red card to impact the final outcome.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Lugano showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

F. San

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Turkes

4th Official

J. Erni

1st Assistant

D. Känel

2nd Assistant

Lugano M. Croci-Torti
M. Croci-Torti
VS
Sion D. Tholot
D. Tholot
1.92
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.42
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sion Rank: W
Grasshopper Rank: L
Lausanne Sport Rank: W
Basel Rank: D
Servette Rank: D
Winterthur Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lugano Rank: L
Servette Rank: D
Young Boys Rank: W
Thun Rank: L
Basel Rank: W
Luzern Rank: D
15
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
15 - 11 - 12
12

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Lugano
44.54%
Draw
27.93%
Away Sion
27.53%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
58.33
48.81
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Lugano
Sion
Power Score
58.33
48.81
League Position
3
6
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Lugano — Opponent-weighted form score
Sion — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Lugano Sion

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Lugano

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Sion

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Lugano ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sion
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
16.76
24.78
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
24.78
16.76
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Lugano -0.72 Efficiency Index
vs
Sion +0.72 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Lugano
Sion
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Lugano
vs
Sion
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Lugano Sion
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +1.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Lugano Sion
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Lugano
Sion
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 18 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Lugano Lugano Home
18 matches
Sion SIO Away
Match Record
8
Wins
5
5
Draws
5
5
Losses
8
Goals
32
Goals Scored
26
26
Goals Conceded
32
+6
Goal Difference
-6
Expected Goals
1.22
xG
1.68
1.68
xGA
1.22

Data last updated: 2026-03-07T11:23:11+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 06, 2026, 02:09 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland
Stadium :
Stadio di Cornaredo
Capacity :
6390
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Mirel Turkes
Fedayi San
Jonas Erni
Daniel Von Känel

Statistics

Possession
Lugano
52%
SIO
48%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 1
7 Shots 9
41 Dangerous attacks 48
54 Possession 46
2 Corners 5
15 Free kicks 9
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

18 Dribble Attempts 18
23 Throwins 21
28 Successful Dribbles Percentage 39
5 Successful Dribbles 7
3 Goal Kicks 7
67 Ball Safe 65
7 Goal Attempts 4
0 Penalties 1
0 Hit Woodwork 1
4 Substitutions 5
1 Assists 0

Attacking

81 Attacks 96

Possession

58 Long Passes 62
86 Successful Passes Percentage 83
67 Successful Long Passes Percentage 53
39 Successful Long Passes 33
389 Successful Passes 322
454 Passes 386
4 Key Passes 5

Defensive

17 Tackles 22
11 Interceptions 4
1 Saves 2

Build-up

13 Total Crosses 20
1 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

11 Fouls 16

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
João Carbone → Yanis Cimignani
9th Substitution
90+4'
Event
Daniel Dos Santos
Time wasting / 4th Yellowcard
90+2'
Event
Zachary Brault-Guillard → Renato Steffen
8th Substitution
82'
78'
Event
Numa Lavanchy
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
73'
Event
Benjamin Kololli → Théo Berdayes
6th Substitution
73'
Event
Adrien Llukes → Ali Kabacalman
7th Substitution
72'
Event
Winsley Boteli → Rilind Nivokazi
5th Substitution
Event
Kevin Behrens
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
62'
59'
Event
Ilyas Chouaref → Franck Surdez
4th Substitution
59'
Event
Liam Chipperfield → Josias Lukembila
3rd Substitution
Event
Kevin Behrens → Georgios Koutsias
1st Substitution
58'
Event
Hicham Mahou → Ahmed Kendouci
2nd Substitution
58'
52'
Event
Franck Surdez
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Georgios Koutsias
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
50'
1ST-HALF
Event
Renato Steffen
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
12'
10'
Event
Ali Kabacalman
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Lugano exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Lugano vs Sion preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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