Lugano vs Basel Match Preview, Stats & Prediction

2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland

Stadio di Cornaredo Sun, 17 May - 2:30 PM

Super League

Lugano Lugano

Basel BAS

Full Time Sun, 17 May 2:30 PM

Round 38 Championship Round

Georgios Koutsias - 56'

Renato Steffen - 52'

Kevin Behrens - 36', 10'

CONTEXT

Lugano hosted Basel in a league match where the home side achieved a comprehensive 4-0 win. The halftime score stood at 2-0 in favor of Lugano. Throughout the game, Lugano maintained 53 percent possession compared to Basel's 47 percent. No red cards were shown to players from either team. Lugano was identified as the stronger team prior to the match and fulfilled that role by securing the victory. The deviation from pre-match projections was significant at 38 percent with Lugano being the team that exceeded expectations. Market alignment was confirmed as true for the outcome. Efficiency shifts remained in line with anticipated patterns based on team strengths. The absence of expected goals data limited deeper analysis of performance metrics. Second half adjustments were minimal as the lead was comfortable.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Lugano recorded a significant 38 percent structural deviation as the designated stronger team.
Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match team strength assessments.
xG alignment: xG alignment could not be assessed because expected goals data was unavailable.
Market alignment: The 4-0 result proved consistent with true market alignment for the stronger side.
xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated due to missing expected goals figures.
Event impact: Lugano's four goals created the decisive event impact on the final scoreline.
Red card distortion: Zero red cards produced no red card distortion in the match dynamics.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

U. Schnyder

Switzerland 25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

L. Aschwanden

2nd Assistant

Switzerland

L. Piccolo

4th Official

Switzerland

M. Zürcher

1st Assistant

Switzerland

M. Croci-Torti

S. Lichtsteiner

1.8

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.42

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

11 - 13 - 18

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Lugano

61.98%

Draw

20.12%

Basel

17.9%

Movement

Changes since opening

Lugano

-32.89%

Draw

+16.85%

Basel

+16.04%

Team Power Ranking

64.75

60.98

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Lugano

Basel

Power Score

64.75

60.98

League Position

Global Rank

331

450

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Lugano — Opponent-weighted form score

Basel — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Lugano Basel

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Lugano

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Basel

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Lugano ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Basel

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Lugano Basel

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Lugano Basel

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Lugano

Basel

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Lugano

Basel

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Lugano Basel

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Lugano Basel

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Lugano

Basel

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

Lugano had peak pressure around 60'.
Lugano started the game with stronger pressure.

Lugano Pressure BAS Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: Lugano reached the top pressure at 60' (68.93).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 42 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Lugano Lugano Home

42 matches

Basel BAS Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

-27

Goal Difference

+27

Data last updated: 2026-05-17T14:17:45+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2

Match Formation 4-3-3

16 D. von Ballmoos

46 M. Zanotti

6 A. Papadopoulos

17 L. Mai

3 H. Delcroix

21 Y. Cimignani

29 M. Belhaj Mahmoud

25 U. Bislimi

7 E. Alioski

11 R. Steffen

91 K. Behrens

13 M. Salvi

31 D. Schmid

24 F. Daniliuc

4 B. Omeragic

27 K. Rüegg

8 K. Koindredi

14 A. Bačanin

22 L. Leroy

21 I. Salah

23 A. Ajeti

18 J. Duranville

General Information

Date & Time :

May 17, 2026, 02:30 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland · Round 38 · Championship Round

Stadium :

Stadio di Cornaredo

Capacity :

6390

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Urs Schnyder

Livio Aschwanden

Luca Piccolo

Marco Zürcher

Statistics

Possession

Lugano

53%

BAS

47%

Top Statistics

4 Goals 0

2 Big Chances Created 0

10 Shots 6

39 Dangerous attacks 44

53 Possession 47

5 Corners 5

8 Free kicks 12

2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

12 Dribble Attempts 9

11 Throwins 19

50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 44

2 Assists 0

8 Goal Kicks 5

6 Successful Dribbles 4

5 Substitutions 5

50 Ball Safe 37

2 Injuries 0

9 Goal Attempts 6

Attacking

54 Attacks 101

Possession

22 Successful Long Passes 16

89 Successful Passes Percentage 89

51 Successful Long Passes Percentage 50

399 Successful Passes 343

43 Long Passes 32

450 Passes 386

14 Key Passes 10

Defensive

15 Tackles 15

8 Interceptions 2

6 Saves 6

Build-up

17 Total Crosses 21

6 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

12 Fouls 8

1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Urs Schnyder

Manager ▼

M. Croci-Torti Coach

Starting XI ▼

David von Ballmoos Goalkeeper

7.09

Hannes Delcroix Defender

7.03

Antonios Papadopoulos Defender

7.07

Lukas Mai Defender

6.95

Mattia Zanotti Defender

7.01

Pablo Acebal Midfielder

6.67

Yanis Cimignani Midfielder

6.91

Elias Pihlström

Attacker80'

6.43

Uran Bislimi Midfielder

7.15

Gjan Ajdin

Midfielder86'

Mohamed Belhadj Mahmoud Midfielder

6.67

Ahmed Kendouci

Midfielder79'

6.57

Renato Steffen Attacker

7.08

Mattia Bottani

Attacker59'

6.57

Kevin Behrens Attacker

Georgios Koutsias

Attacker46'

6.75

Substitutes ▼

Georgios Koutsias

Attacker46'

6.75

Mattia Bottani

Attacker59'

6.57

Ahmed Kendouci

Midfielder79'

6.57

Elias Pihlström

Attacker80'

6.43

Gjan Ajdin

Midfielder86'

Bench ▼

Amir Saipi Goalkeeper

7.29

Damian Kelvin Defender

6.68

João Carbone Defender

6.45

Hicham Mahou Midfielder

6.78

Referee : Urs Schnyder