Lugano vs Basel Prediction, Preview and Stats

Switzerland flag 2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland
Stadio di Cornaredo Sun, 17 May - 2:30 PM
Super League
Lugano Lugano
Versus
Basel BAS
KICKOFF : Sun, 17 May - 2:30 PM
Round 38 Championship Round

CONTEXT

Lugano hosts Basel at Stadio di Cornaredo in the Super League Championship Round of the 2025/2026 season. The home team enters as the stronger side, with a power score of 64.96 edging Basel's 61.2 for a 3.8-point advantage. Lugano's form score of 41.67 towers over Basel's meager 15.17, signaling robust recent momentum for the 3rd-placed hosts against the 5th-placed visitors. League positions underscore Lugano's consistency in this domestic competition. Absent specific last outing or detailed form records, analysis hinges on these core metrics. Home advantage at Cornaredo could amplify Lugano's edge in structure and execution. Set piece data draws from low-confidence proxies, as xG stats remain unavailable, leaving defense against dead balls as an unknown. Efficiency and transition phases will likely decide key moments in this pivotal clash.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Lugano holds a 3.8-point power score advantage at 64.96 over Basel's 61.2.
  • Form: Lugano's form score of 41.67 far exceeds Basel's 15.17.
  • Squad: Lugano ranks 3rd in the league standings, ahead of Basel in 5th.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics are unavailable for both teams.
  • Transition: Transition play data is not available for this matchup.
  • Set pieces: Set piece stats use low-confidence proxies with xG data unavailable for Lugano and Basel.
  • xVariable: xG-based variables are unavailable due to lack of underlying data.
  • Market: Lugano 50.7% (Δ+0%) | Draw 24% (Δ+0%) | Basel 25.3% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Lugano M. Croci-Torti
M. Croci-Torti
VS
Basel S. Lichtsteiner
S. Lichtsteiner
1.8
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.42
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sion Rank: 65 D
St. Gallen Rank: 64 L
Young Boys Rank: 62 W
Thun Rank: 66 W
Zürich Rank: 51 W
Thun Rank: 62 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
St. Gallen Rank: 65 L
Young Boys Rank: 62 L
Thun Rank: 65 W
Sion Rank: 61 L
Thun Rank: 62 L
Young Boys Rank: 65 D
11
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
11 - 13 - 18
18
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Lugano
50.65%
Draw
24.03%
Away Basel
25.32%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
64.96
61.2
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Lugano
Basel
Power Score
64.96
61.2
League Position
3
5
Global Rank
334
454

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Lugano — Opponent-weighted form score
Basel — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Lugano Basel

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 42 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Lugano Lugano Home
42 matches
Basel BAS Away
Match Record
11
Wins
18
13
Draws
13
18
Losses
11
Goals
51
Goals Scored
78
78
Goals Conceded
51
-27
Goal Difference
+27

Data last updated: 2026-05-15T01:06:40+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

Official lineups and formations are usually announced 60–90 minutes before kickoff. Check back closer to the match to see the starting XIs here.

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 02:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland · Round 38 · Championship Round
Stadium :
Stadio di Cornaredo
Capacity :
6390
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Squad

Squad ▼

16
David von Ballmoos
David von Ballmoos Goalkeeper
1
Amir Saipi
Amir Saipi Goalkeeper
13
S. Berbic
S. Berbic Goalkeeper
99
Diego Mina
Diego Mina Goalkeeper
3
Hannes Delcroix
Hannes Delcroix Defender
7
Ezdzhan Alioski
Ezdzhan Alioski Defender
2
Zachary Brault-Guillard
Zachary Brault-Guillard Defender
17
Lars Lukas Mai
Lars Lukas Mai Defender
6
Antonios Papadopoulos
Antonios Papadopoulos Defender
46
Mattia Zanotti
Mattia Zanotti Defender
47
Yassin Sbai
Yassin Sbai Defender
26
Martim Alexandre Costa Marques
Martim Alexandre Costa Marques Defender
44
João Victor Schlickmann Carbone
João Victor Schlickmann Carbone Defender
4
Damian Kelvin
Damian Kelvin Defender
8
Anto Grgic
Anto Grgic Midfielder
10
Mattia Bottani
Mattia Bottani Midfielder
25
Uran Bislimi
Uran Bislimi Midfielder
14
Ahmed Kendouci
Ahmed Kendouci Midfielder
29
Mohamed Belhaj Mahmoud
Mohamed Belhaj Mahmoud Midfielder
21
Yanis Cimignani
Yanis Cimignani Midfielder
27
Daniel dos Santos Correia
Daniel dos Santos Correia Midfielder
19
Claudio Cassano
Claudio Cassano Midfielder
49
Ilija Maslarov
Ilija Maslarov Midfielder
91
Kevin Behrens
Kevin Behrens Attacker
18
Hicham Mahou
Hicham Mahou Attacker
11
Renato Steffen
Renato Steffen Attacker
9
Georgios Koutsias
Georgios Koutsias Attacker
24
Erik Elias Pihlström
Erik Elias Pihlström Attacker

Squad ▼

1
Marwin Hitz
Marwin Hitz Goalkeeper
13
Mirko Salvi
Mirko Salvi Goalkeeper
47
Tim Pfeiffer
Tim Pfeiffer Goalkeeper
27
Kevin Rüegg
Kevin Rüegg Defender
6
Keigo Tsunemoto
Keigo Tsunemoto Defender
31
Dominik Robin Schmid
Dominik Robin Schmid Defender
24
Flavius Daniliuc
Flavius Daniliuc Defender
29
Moussa Cisse
Moussa Cisse Defender
4
Becir Omeragic
Becir Omeragic Defender
3
Nicolas Vouilloz
Nicolas Vouilloz Defender
25
Finn van Breemen
Finn van Breemen Defender
43
Marvin Akahomen
Marvin Akahomen Defender
10
Xherdan Shaqiri
Xherdan Shaqiri Midfielder
22
Leo Leroy
Leo Leroy Midfielder
8
Koba Lein Koindredi
Koba Lein Koindredi Midfielder
5
Abemly Meto Silu
Abemly Meto Silu Midfielder
10
Brian Adriano Ogechukwu Onyegbule
Brian Adriano Ogechukwu Onyegbule Midfielder
28
Dion Kacuri
Dion Kacuri Midfielder
14
Andrej Bačanin
Andrej Bačanin Midfielder
23
Albian Ajeti
Albian Ajeti Attacker
17
Moritz Broschinski
Moritz Broschinski Attacker
11
Bénie Traore
Bénie Traore Attacker
21
Ibrahim Salah
Ibrahim Salah Attacker
18
Julien Duranville
Julien Duranville Attacker
19
Marin Soticek
Marin Soticek Attacker
37
Giacomo Koloto
Giacomo Koloto Attacker
46
Kaio Eduardo Nascimento Pereira dos Santos
Kaio Eduardo Nascimento Pereira dos Santos Attacker

CONCLUSION

Lugano's superior power score, form, and league position make them the clear favorites hosting Basel in this Championship Round fixture. The 3.8-point structural edge combines with a dominant 41.67 form rating to suggest home dominance at Stadio di Cornaredo. Basel's 5th-place standing and poor 15.17 form score expose vulnerabilities, especially away from home. Without detailed efficiency, transition, or set piece insights—hampered by unavailable xG proxies—Lugano's overall metrics point to control. Expect the hosts to press advantages in open play, securing crucial points in the 2025/2026 Super League push.

Lugano vs Basel preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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