LOSC Lille vs Lorient Prediction, Preview and Stats

France flag 2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Stade Pierre-Mauroy Sun, 8 Mar - 4:15 PM
Ligue 1
LOSC Lille LOSC
1 – 1
Lorient LOR
Full Time Sun, 8 Mar 4:15 PM
Matías Fernández-Pardo - 65'
Goal
|
Goal
Arthur Avom - 90+3'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. LOSC Lille 1–1 Lorient. The match ended in a draw. LOSC Lille showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 58%–42%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: LOSC Lille showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Kherradji

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

J. Garrigues

2nd Assistant

L. Reyes

1st Assistant

T. LeProdhomme

4th Official

LOSC Lille B. Génésio
B. Génésio
VS
Lorient O. Pantaloni
O. Pantaloni
1.47
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.43
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Olympique Lyonnais Rank: L
Strasbourg Rank: L
Paris Saint Germain Rank: L
Rennes Rank: L
Auxerre Rank: W
Olympique Marseille Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Auxerre Rank: D
Nice Rank: D
Angers SCO Rank: W
Brest Rank: L
Nantes Rank: W
Rennes Rank: W
15
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
15 - 6 - 10
10

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home LOSC Lille
60.92%
Draw
23.09%
Away Lorient
15.99%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
54.67
41.57
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
LOSC Lille
Lorient
Power Score
54.67
41.57
League Position
6
10
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
LOSC Lille — Opponent-weighted form score
Lorient — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) LOSC Lille Lorient

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

LOSC Lille

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Lorient

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

LOSC Lille ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lorient
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
27.59
24.40
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
24.40
27.59
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
LOSC Lille +0.31 Efficiency Index
vs
Lorient -0.31 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
LOSC Lille
Lorient
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

LOSC Lille ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lorient
Created Set-piece attacking threat
LOSC Lille Lorient
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
LOSC Lille Lorient
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
LOSC Lille
Lorient
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 9 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

LOSC Lille LOSC Home
9 matches
Lorient LOR Away
Match Record
6
Wins
3
0
Draws
0
3
Losses
6
Goals
27
Goals Scored
12
12
Goals Conceded
27
+15
Goal Difference
-15

Data last updated: 2026-03-09T00:14:57+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 08, 2026, 04:15 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Stadium :
Stade Pierre-Mauroy
Capacity :
50186
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
A. Kherradji
Julien Garrigues
Ludovic Reyes
T. LeProdhomme

Statistics

Possession
LOSC
59%
LOR
41%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 1
7 Shots 3
80 Dangerous attacks 25
58 Possession 42
5 Corners 1
13 Free kicks 14
4 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

13 Successful Headers 12
6 Goal Kicks 8
10 Successful Dribbles 3
14 Throwins 10
71 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33
14 Dribble Attempts 9
1 Goal Attempts 4
1 Injuries 2
38 Ball Safe 45
2 Hit Woodwork 0
5 Substitutions 5
1 Assists 1

Attacking

136 Attacks 52
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

461 Successful Passes 335
41 Successful Long Passes 20
76 Successful Long Passes Percentage 47
87 Successful Passes Percentage 85
529 Passes 394
54 Long Passes 43
9 Key Passes 9

Defensive

16 Tackles 13
11 Interceptions 9
3 Saves 1

Build-up

4 Accurate Crosses 1
22 Total Crosses 10

Discipline

14 Fouls 12
1 Offsides 0

Events

2ND-HALF
90+3'
Event
Arthur Avom
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Nabil Bentaleb
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
90+1'
Event
Soriba Diaoune → Hákon Arnar Haraldsson
10th Substitution
88'
Event
Noah Edjouma → Matías Fernández-Pardo
9th Substitution
87'
Event
Matías Fernández-Pardo
Penalty cancelled
80'
80'
Event
Daniel Semedo → Karim Dermane
8th Substitution
Event
Félix Correia → Gaëtan Perrin
5th Substitution
74'
74'
Event
Sambou Soumano → Panos Katseris
6th Substitution
74'
Event
Darlin Yongwa → Arsène Kouassi
7th Substitution
Event
Ngal'ayel Mukau → Ayyoub Bouaddi
4th Substitution
73'
Event
Thomas Meunier → Tiago Santos
3rd Substitution
73'
66'
Event
Théo Le Bris → Jean-Victor Makengo
1st Substitution
66'
Event
Bamba Dieng → Aiyegun Tosin
2nd Substitution
Event
Matías Fernández-Pardo
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
65'
55'
Event
Bamo Meïté
Persistent fouling / 4th Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Aïssa Mandi
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
32'
Event
Berke Özer
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
32'
Event
Gaëtan Perrin
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
22'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
That's it! The match has concluded with a final score of Lille 1, Lorient 1.
90
Update Update
That's it! The match has concluded with a final score of Lille 1, Lorient 1.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the score tied at 1-1 between Lille and Lorient.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Benjamin André from Lille committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Bamo Meïté from Lorient has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Nabil Bentaleb of Lille has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
90
Update Update
Nabil Bentaleb from Lille committed a foul.
90
Corner Corner
Goal! It's now Lille 1, Lorient 1. Arthur Avom from Lorient scores with a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, placing the ball into the top left corner. The assist came from Bamo Meïté.
90
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Darlin Yongwa from Lorient took a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it went just wide to the left. The assist came from Bamba Dieng.
88
Update Update
Darlin Yongwa from Lorient has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
87
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 5 minutes of stoppage time.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lille: Soriba Diaoune comes on to replace Hákon Haraldsson.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lille: Soriba Diaoune replaces Hákon Haraldsson.
82
Update Update
Noah Cadiou from Lorient committed a foul.
82
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lille: Noah Edjouma replaces Matias Fernandez-Pardo.
82
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Aïssa Mandi from Lille attempted a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area.
81
Update Update
Benjamin André from Lille has been awarded a free kick in an attacking position.
81
Update Update
Daniel Semedo from Lorient committed a foul.
80
Update Update
Ngal'ayel Mukau from Lille has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
80
Update Update
VAR Review: Penalty Not Awarded to Lille.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lorient: Daniel Semedo replaces Dermane Karim.
74
Update Update
Offside call against Lille. Romain Perraud has been caught offside.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lorient: Darlin Yongwa replaces Arsène Kouassi.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lorient: Sambou Soumano comes on to replace Panos Katseris.
73
Update Update
Tiago Santos from Lille has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lille: Félix Correia comes on to replace Ayyoub Bouaddi.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lille: Ngal'ayel Mukau comes on to replace Gaëtan Perrin.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lille: Thomas Meunier comes on to replace Tiago Santos.
72
Update Update
Arthur Avom from Lorient committed a foul.
71
Corner Corner
Another offensive push! Noah Cadiou from Lorient takes a right-footed shot from a challenging angle on the left, but Berke Özer from Lille makes a great save, reaching up to deny it in the top left corner. The assist came from Dermane Karim, who delivered a well-placed through ball.
70
Corner Corner
Another offensive push underway. Gaëtan Perrin from Lille takes a right-footed shot from a challenging angle and long range on the left, but it’s expertly saved in the bottom left corner.
70
Update Update
Noah Cadiou from Lorient committed a foul.
70
Update Update
Romain Perraud from Lille has been awarded a free kick on the left side of the field.
67
Update Update
Tiago Santos from Lille committed a foul.
67
Update Update
Dermane Karim from Lorient has been awarded a free kick on the left side of the pitch.
66
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lorient: Bamba Dieng comes on to replace Aiyegun Tosin.
66
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lorient: Théo Le Bris comes on to replace Jean-Victor Makengo.
65
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Lille takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Lorient. Matias Fernandez-Pardo found the back of the net with a right-footed shot from the center of the box, placing it perfectly into the right corner. The assist came from Nabil Bentaleb, who delivered a well-timed through ball.
64
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Lille after Bamo Meïté allowed the ball to go out.
63
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push underway. Noah Cadiou from Lorient takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's successfully stopped.
62
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity. Gaëtan Perrin from Lille attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sailed high and to the right after the corner kick.
61
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Lille after Noah Cadiou allowed the ball to go out.
59
Update Update
Ayyoub Bouaddi from Lille committed a foul.
59
Update Update
Arsène Kouassi from Lorient has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
59
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Matias Fernandez-Pardo of Lille attempted a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area but failed to score. The assist came from Romain Perraud, who delivered a cross.
58
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push. Gaëtan Perrin from Lille takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but Yvon Mvogo from Lorient makes a save, diving to his left. The assist came from Matias Fernandez-Pardo.
56
Update Update
Romain Perraud from Lille committed a foul.
56
Update Update
Jean-Victor Makengo from Lorient earned a free kick in the defensive area.
55
Update Update
Bamo Meïté commits a foul against a player from Lorient.
55
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Arthur Avom from Lorient takes a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but it's blocked.
55
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Bamo Meïté of Lorient has been shown a yellow card.
55
Update Update
Matias Fernandez-Pardo from Lille has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
54
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Tiago Santos from Lille took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it went wide to the left. The assist came from Hákon Haraldsson.
53
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Jean-Victor Makengo from Lorient takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Aiyegun Tosin.
51
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Matias Fernandez-Pardo from Lille takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it's blocked.
50
Update Update
Abdoulaye Faye from Lorient committed a foul.
50
Update Update
Nabil Bentaleb from Lille has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
49
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Aiyegun Tosin from Lorient took a shot with his right foot from the right side of the penalty area.
48
Update Update
Panos Katseris from Lorient committed a foul.
48
Update Update
Romain Perraud from Lille has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
47
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Lorient after Tiago Santos allowed the ball to go out.
47
Update Update
Gaëtan Perrin from Lille committed a foul.
47
Update Update
Arthur Avom from Lorient has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
46
Update Update
Romain Perraud from Lille has been awarded a free kick on the left flank.
46
Update Update
Jean-Victor Makengo from Lorient committed a foul.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score still tied at Lille 0, Lorient 0.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Lille after Abdoulaye Faye allowed it to go out.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be three minutes of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
Tiago Santos from Lille committed a foul.
45
Update Update
Arsène Kouassi from Lorient has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Lille after Montassar Talbi allowed the ball to go out.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the score tied at Lille 0, Lorient 0.
42
Update Update
Aiyegun Tosin from Lorient commits a handball.
41
Update Update
Gaëtan Perrin from Lille commits a handball.
39
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Lille after a foul by Arsène Kouassi.
39
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Nabil Bentaleb from Lille takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked.
36
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Aiyegun Tosin from Lorient took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it went wide.
32
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Berke Özer from Lille has been shown a yellow card.
32
Update Update
Panos Katseris from Lorient was awarded a free kick on the right side of the pitch.
32
Update Update
Aïssa Mandi from Lille committed a foul.
32
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Aïssa Mandi of Lille has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
28
Update Update
Ayyoub Bouaddi from Lille committed a foul.
28
Update Update
Bamo Meïté commits a foul against a player from Lorient.
23
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
22
Update Update
Gaëtan Perrin from Lille committed a foul.
22
Update Update
Match is currently on hold due to an injury to Dermane Karim from Lorient.
22
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Gaëtan Perrin from Lille has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
22
Update Update
Dermane Karim from Lorient was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
21
Update Update
Benjamin André from Lille earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
21
Update Update
Bamo Meïté committed a foul against a player from Lorient.
20
Update Update
Match is currently paused due to an injury to Panos Katseris from Lorient.
20
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
20
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Romain Perraud from Lille takes a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it's blocked.
18
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Noah Cadiou from Lorient attempts a header from the center of the box. However, Berke Özer from Lille makes a great save, pushing the ball to the right corner. The assist came from Arthur Avom, who delivered a precise cross.
17
Update Update
Arthur Avom from Lorient earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
17
Update Update
Benjamin André from Lille committed a foul.
15
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
13
Update Update
Aïssa Mandi from Lille has earned a free kick in an attacking position.
13
Update Update
Match interruption due to an injury to Aïssa Mandi from Lille.
13
Update Update
Bamo Meïté commits a foul against a player from Lorient.
12
Update Update
Dermane Karim from Lorient has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
12
Update Update
Foul committed by Benjamin André from Lille.
5
Update Update
Abdoulaye Faye from Lorient committed a foul.
5
Update Update
Hákon Haraldsson from Lille has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
4
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Tiago Santos from Lille attempted a header from the right side of the six-yard box, but it went just wide of the target. The assist came from Benjamin André.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: LOSC Lille exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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