LOSC Lille vs Lens Prediction, Preview and Stats

France flag 2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Stade Pierre-Mauroy Sat, 4 Apr - 7:05 PM
Ligue 1
LOSC Lille LOSC
3 Winner 0
Lens LEN
Full Time Sat, 4 Apr 7:05 PM
Round 28 Regular Season
Matías Fernández-Pardo - 58' (P)
Félix Correia - 49'
Hákon Arnar Haraldsson - 44'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match between LOSC Lille and Lens has finished, with LOSC Lille securing a comprehensive 3-0 home victory. Lille took an early advantage, leading 1-0 at halftime, before pulling away with two additional goals in the second half. The home side dictated the flow of the game, maintaining 56% of the possession compared to Lens' 44%. Expected Goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, so it cannot be determined if the outcome aligned with the underlying chance quality. Heading into the game, Lens was considered the stronger team, holding a 39% implied probability of winning according to the pre-match market. LOSC Lille sat at a 32.9% chance, with a draw priced at 28.1%. Because Lille secured the upset, the final outcome did not align with the pre-match market. This resulted in a significant deviation, with LOSC Lille outperforming market expectations by 67.1%. Despite the surprising scoreline, the overall efficiency shift was completely in line with general match trends. Furthermore, the contest was free of major disciplinary disruptions. No red cards were issued to either side, ensuring the game was decided strictly through eleven-on-eleven play.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: LOSC Lille showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

F. Letexier

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

C. Mugnier

1st Assistant

M. Rahmouni

2nd Assistant

G. Paradis

4th Official

LOSC Lille B. Génésio
B. Génésio
VS
Lens P. Sage
P. Sage
1.76
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.33
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Olympique Marseille Rank: 82 W
Rennes Rank: 78 W
Lorient Rank: 74 D
Nantes Rank: 64 W
Angers SCO Rank: 67 W
Brest Rank: 73 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Angers SCO Rank: 67 W
Lorient Rank: 73 L
Metz Rank: 62 W
Strasbourg Rank: 80 D
Monaco Rank: 81 L
Paris Rank: 69 W
13
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
13 - 6 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home LOSC Lille
32.93%
Draw
28.06%
Away Lens
39.01%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
79.55
82.65
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
LOSC Lille
Lens
Power Score
79.55
82.65
League Position
3
2
Global Rank
65
46

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
LOSC Lille — Opponent-weighted form score
Lens — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) LOSC Lille Lens

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

LOSC Lille

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Lens

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

LOSC Lille ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lens
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
28.48
13.86
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
13.86
28.48
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
LOSC Lille +1.43 Efficiency Index
vs
Lens -1.43 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
LOSC Lille
Lens
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

LOSC Lille ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lens
Created Set-piece attacking threat
LOSC Lille Lens
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
LOSC Lille Lens
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
LOSC Lille
Lens
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
LOSC Lille
vs
Lens
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
LOSC Lille Lens
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
LOSC Lille 0.22
Lens 0.23
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
LOSC Lille Lens
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
LOSC Lille 0.00
Lens 0.05
LOSC Lille
Lens
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 23 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

LOSC Lille LOSC Home
23 matches
Lens LEN Away
Match Record
13
Wins
4
6
Draws
6
4
Losses
13
Goals
38
Goals Scored
20
20
Goals Conceded
38
+18
Goal Difference
-18

Data last updated: 2026-04-05T00:07:12+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
B. Özer
Turkey
1 B. Özer
T. Meunier
Belgium
12 T. Meunier
N. Ngoy
Belgium
3 N. Ngoy
A. Mandi
Algeria
23 A. Mandi
R. Perraud
Substitution
France
15 R. Perraud
N. Bentaleb
Algeria
6 N. Bentaleb
A. Bouaddi
France
32 A. Bouaddi
N. Mukau
Substitution
Belgium
17 N. Mukau
H. Haraldsson
Substitution
Iceland
10 H. Haraldsson
F. Sanches Correia
Substitution
Portugal
27 F. Sanches Correia
M. Fernandez Pardo
Substitution
Belgium
7 M. Fernandez Pardo
Pitch
R. Risser
France
40 R. Risser
M. Sarr
France
20 M. Sarr
P. Ganiou
France
25 P. Ganiou
N. Čelik
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
4 N. Čelik
M. Udol
France
14 M. Udol
A. Thomasson
Substitution
France
28 A. Thomasson
M. Sangare
Mali
8 M. Sangare
S. Abdul Hamid
Saudi Arabia
23 S. Abdul Hamid
W. Saïd
Substitution
France
22 W. Saïd
F. Thauvin
Substitution
France
10 F. Thauvin
O. Édouard
Substitution
France
11 O. Édouard

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 04, 2026, 07:05 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France · Round 28 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stade Pierre-Mauroy
Capacity :
50186
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
François Letexier
Cyril Mugnier
Mehdi Rahmouni
Guillaume Paradis

Statistics

Possession
LOSC
57%
LEN
43%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 0
6 Big Chances Created 1
7 Shots 1
59 Dangerous attacks 22
56 Possession 44
3 Corners 3
12 Free kicks 9
3 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

9 Goal Kicks 7
62 Successful Dribbles Percentage 38
8 Successful Dribbles 3
30 Throwins 20
13 Dribble Attempts 8
10 Successful Headers 8
1 Assists 0
9 Goal Attempts 8
1 Penalties 0
77 Ball Safe 65
2 Injuries 1
6 Substitutions 5

Attacking

107 Attacks 80
3 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

396 Successful Passes 294
468 Passes 372
85 Successful Passes Percentage 79
9 Key Passes 4
50 Long Passes 41
28 Successful Long Passes 14
56 Successful Long Passes Percentage 34

Defensive

1 Saves 4
15 Tackles 13
10 Interceptions 12
45 Duels Won 33

Build-up

12 Total Crosses 12
3 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

1 Offsides 1
9 Fouls 13

Lineup

Referee : François Letexier

Starting XI ▼

1
Berke Özer
Berke Özer Goalkeeper
3
Nathan Ngoy
Nathan Ngoy Defender
12
Thomas Meunier
Thomas Meunier Defender
15
Romain Perraud
Romain Perraud Defender
24
Calvin Verdonk
Calvin Verdonk
Defender90+4'
23
Aïssa Mandi
Aïssa Mandi Defender
6
Nabil Bentaleb
Nabil Bentaleb Midfielder
10
Hákon Arnar Haraldsson
Hákon Arnar Haraldsson Midfielder
21
Benjamin André
Benjamin André
Midfielder73'
17
Ngal'ayel Mukau
Ngal'ayel Mukau Midfielder
8
Ethan Mbappé
Ethan Mbappé
Midfielder80'
27
Félix Correia
Félix Correia Midfielder
9
Olivier Giroud
Olivier Giroud
Attacker73'
32
Ayyoub Bouaddi
Ayyoub Bouaddi Midfielder
7
Matías Fernández-Pardo
Matías Fernández-Pardo Attacker
28
Gaëtan Perrin
Gaëtan Perrin
Attacker80'
Referee : François Letexier

Starting XI ▼

40
Robin Risser
Robin Risser Goalkeeper
4
Nidal Celik
Nidal Celik Defender
21
Amadou Haidara
Amadou Haidara
Midfielder55'
20
Malang Sarr
Malang Sarr Defender
25
Ismaëlo Ganiou
Ismaëlo Ganiou Defender
8
Mamadou Sangaré
Mamadou Sangaré Midfielder
14
Matthieu Udol
Matthieu Udol Midfielder
23
Saud Abdulhamid
Saud Abdulhamid Midfielder
28
Adrien Thomasson
Adrien Thomasson Midfielder
7
Florian Sotoca
Florian Sotoca
Attacker67'
10
Florian Thauvin
Florian Thauvin Attacker
5
Andrija Bulatovic
Andrija Bulatovic
Midfielder85'
11
Odsonne Édouard
Odsonne Édouard Attacker
38
Rayan Fofana
Rayan Fofana
Attacker85'
22
Wesley Saïd
Wesley Saïd Attacker
9
Allan Saint-Maximin
Allan Saint-Maximin
Attacker55'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Calvin Verdonk → Romain Perraud
10th Substitution
90+4'
Event
Ethan Mbappé
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
90'
85'
Event
Rayan Fofana → Odsonne Édouard
9th Substitution
85'
Event
Andrija Bulatovic → Florian Thauvin
8th Substitution
Event
Gaëtan Perrin → Matías Fernández-Pardo
7th Substitution
80'
Event
Ethan Mbappé → Ngal'ayel Mukau
6th Substitution
80'
78'
Event
Saud Abdulhamid
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Benjamin André → Hákon Arnar Haraldsson
4th Substitution
73'
Event
Olivier Giroud → Félix Correia
5th Substitution
73'
Event
Berke Özer
Time wasting / 3rd Yellowcard
71'
67'
Event
Florian Sotoca → Adrien Thomasson 
3rd Substitution
Event
Matías Fernández-Pardo
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
58'
55'
Event
Amadou Haidara  → Nidal Celik
1st Substitution
55'
Event
Allan Saint-Maximin → Wesley Saïd 
2nd Substitution
Event
Félix Correia
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
49'
1ST-HALF
Event
Nathan Ngoy
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
45+5'
45+5'
Event
Adrien Thomasson 
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Hákon Arnar Haraldsson
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
44'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Foul committed by Matthieu Udol of Lens.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with Lille winning 3-0 against Lens.
90
Update Update
Thomas Meunier from Lille won a free kick on the right wing.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lille: Calvin Verdonk replaces Romain Perraud.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ethan Mbappé of Lille receives a yellow card for a foul.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 5 minutes of added time.
90
Corner Corner
Lens wins a corner after Aïssa Mandi concedes.
89
Update Update
Rayan Fofana from Lens won a free kick in an attacking position.
89
Update Update
Foul committed by Ethan Mbappé of Lille.
87
Corner Corner
Lens wins a corner after Romain Perraud concedes.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lens: Andrija Bulatovic replaces Florian Thauvin.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lens: Rayan Fofana replaces Odsonne Édouard.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lille: Gaëtan Perrin replaces Matias Fernandez-Pardo due to injury.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lille: Ethan Mbappé replaces Ngal'ayel Mukau.
78
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Matias Fernandez-Pardo from Lille.
77
Update Update
Foul by Saud Abdulhamid of Lens.
76
Update Update
Nabil Bentaleb from Lille commits a foul.
76
Update Update
Odsonne Édouard of Lens won a free kick on the right wing.
75
Attempt Attempt
Florian Sotoca from Lens misses a chance with a right-footed shot from outside the box.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lille: Benjamin André replaces Hákon Haraldsson.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lille: Olivier Giroud replaces Félix Correia.
71
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Berke Özer from Lille receives a yellow card.
70
Update Update
Florian Sotoca from Lens misses a chance, shooting with his right foot from the center of the box, sending the ball high and wide to the right. The assist came from Mamadou Sangaré.
69
Update Update
Foul committed by Odsonne Édouard for Lens.
69
Update Update
Aïssa Mandi from Lille won a free kick in defense.
68
Update Update
Fouled by Florian Sotoca of Lens.
68
Update Update
Nabil Bentaleb of Lille won a free kick in defense.
68
Attempt Attempt
Ngal'ayel Mukau from Lille attempts an attack, shooting with his left foot from the right side of the box, but the shot is saved.
67
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Félix Correia from Lille shoots with his right foot from outside the box, but it goes high. Assist by Ngal'ayel Mukau.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lens: Florian Sotoca replaces Adrien Thomasson.
65
Update Update
Allan Saint-Maximin from Lens won a free kick in defense.
65
Update Update
Foul committed by Thomas Meunier - Lille.
62
Update Update
Amadou Haidara commits a foul for Lens.
62
Update Update
Ngal'ayel Mukau from Lille won a free kick in the attacking area.
60
Update Update
Foul committed by Ayyoub Bouaddi of Lille.
60
Update Update
Allan Saint-Maximin from Lens won a free kick on the left wing.
58
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Matias Fernandez-Pardo scores for Lille with a right-footed shot from the penalty spot. The match score is now Lille 3, Lens 0.
56
Update Update
Ismaëlo Ganiou of Lens concedes a penalty for a handball in the penalty area.
55
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lens: Allan Saint-Maximin replaces Wesley Saïd.
55
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lens: Amadou Haidara replaces Nidal Celik.
53
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Félix Correia from Lille has a right-footed shot from the center of the box that is saved.
53
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Félix Correia of Lille.
49
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Lille lead 2-0 against Lens as Félix Correia scores with a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the center of the goal.
48
Update Update
Hákon Haraldsson from Lille won a free kick in the defensive area.
48
Update Update
Hákon Haraldsson from Lille won a free kick in defense.
45
Update Update
Nabil Bentaleb from Lille won a free kick on the right wing.
45
Update Update
Romain Perraud fouled a Lille player.
45
Update Update
Saud Abdulhamid from Lens won a free kick in defense.
45
Corner Corner
Lens wins a corner after Ayyoub Bouaddi concedes.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Adrien Thomasson for Lens.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Adrien Thomasson from Lens receives a yellow card for a foul.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Nathan Ngoy from Lille receives a yellow card.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 9 minutes of added time.
45
Attempt Attempt
Matias Fernandez-Pardo's right-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked. Nabil Bentaleb provided the assist.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Lille leading 1-0 against Lens.
45
Attempt Attempt
Wesley Saïd from Lens had a missed opportunity, shooting with his right foot from the center of the box but missing to the left. Adrien Thomasson provided the assist.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with Lille leading Lens 1-0.
44
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Lille leads 1-0 against Lens. Hákon Haraldsson scores for Lille with a right-footed shot from close range to the center of the goal, assisted by Matias Fernandez-Pardo.
40
Update Update
Nidal Celik from Lens committed a foul.
40
Update Update
Félix Correia from Lille won a free kick in an attacking position.
36
Update Update
Florian Thauvin from Lens won a free kick in defense.
36
Update Update
Ayyoub Bouaddi from Lille committed a foul.
34
Update Update
Nabil Bentaleb from Lille commits a foul.
34
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Matias Fernandez-Pardo from Lille shot with his right foot from the left side of the box but missed to the left. The assist came from Nabil Bentaleb after a fast break.
34
Update Update
Florian Thauvin from Lens won a free kick in defense.
32
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Odsonne Édouard of Lens takes a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but Berke Özer of Lille saves it in the right corner.
32
Update Update
Florian Thauvin from Lens misses a chance, shooting with his right foot from the center of the box, sending the ball high. Wesley Saïd provided the assist.
31
Corner Corner
Lille wins a corner after Ismaëlo Ganiou concedes.
28
Update Update
Robin Risser from Lens won a free kick in defense.
28
Update Update
Foul committed by Matias Fernandez-Pardo of Lille.
27
Update Update
Matias Fernandez-Pardo from Lille won a free kick in defense.
27
Update Update
Nidal Celik from Lens commits a foul.
26
Corner Corner
Aïssa Mandi of Lille missed a header from the center of the box, sending the ball to the left. The assist came from Hákon Haraldsson, who provided a cross after a corner.
26
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Matias Fernandez-Pardo from Lille has a right-footed shot from inside the six-yard box on the left side, but it's saved.
25
Corner Corner
Lille wins a corner after Matthieu Udol concedes.
24
Attempt Attempt
Matias Fernandez-Pardo's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. Hákon Haraldsson provided the assist.
21
Update Update
Foul by Adrien Thomasson of Lens.
21
Update Update
Ngal'ayel Mukau from Lille won a free kick on the right wing.
20
Corner Corner
Lille wins a corner after Robin Risser concedes.
20
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Hákon Haraldsson from Lille takes a left-footed shot from inside the six-yard box, but it's saved in the left corner by Robin Risser from Lens. The assist comes from Nabil Bentaleb with a through ball.
17
Update Update
Ayyoub Bouaddi from Lille won a free kick in defense.
17
Update Update
Wesley Saïd from Lens commits a foul.
16
Update Update
Hákon Haraldsson from Lille won a free kick on the left wing.
16
Update Update
Foul committed by Mamadou Sangaré of Lens.
10
Update Update
Fouled by Wesley Saïd of Lens.
10
Update Update
Aïssa Mandi from Lille won a free kick on the right wing.
8
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Mamadou Sangaré from Lens.
7
Update Update
Hákon Haraldsson of Lille commits a foul.
7
Update Update
Mamadou Sangaré from Lens won a free kick in defense.
6
Update Update
Offside called against Lens. Odsonne Édouard is offside.
5
Update Update
Offside called against Lille. Ngal'ayel Mukau is offside.
1
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Matias Fernandez-Pardo from Lille shot with his right foot from the center of the box but missed to the left. The assist came from Ayyoub Bouaddi's cross.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: LOSC Lille exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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